ACUS11 KWNS 231705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231705=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-231900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0836
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Louisiana into central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241...

Valid 231705Z - 231900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for wind damage will continue into central
Mississippi this afternoon. Brief tornadoes also may occur,
particularly close the the MCV circulation.

DISCUSSION...Filtered surface heating continues ahead of an
MCV-driven convective line. The strongest surface heating has
occurred in central Mississippi where temperatures are in the low
80s F. KPOE VAD shows around 40 kt of flow within the lowest 3 km
after the MCV passed. This should promote at least some threat for
wind damage as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen ahead of
the activity. The southern extent of the threat is the most
uncertain given the influence of convection along the central Gulf
Coast. While overall low-level shear remains weak, KPOE VAD did show
an increase to around 200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH just ahead of the MCV.
Brief tornadoes remain possible this afternoon.

..Wendt.. 05/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6z-rGUMYbDTTLnFKu10bCRenDDBnohnv41Ge_ylocsym47EoAMc4MwFtzlfBe3o4TuDl85nub= xLjXEcC21Vv6vzqAXo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31498955 31319002 31219080 31079161 31179188 31639207
32039263 32399305 32529298 33269158 33379037 33098946
32638910 32198922 31498955=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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