ACUS11 KWNS 251143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251142=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0852
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southern Mississippi and southeast
Louisiana...and southwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 251142Z - 251345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts and possibly a brief tornado cannot
be ruled out this morning.

DISCUSSION...Preceding a midlevel trough/low (evident in water-vapor
imagery) over eastern TX, the latest radar data indicates an MCV
moving onshore into southern MS. The MOB VWP is sampling
deep-southerly flow and a small clockwise-curved low-level
hodograph. Given a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) and
the modestly sheared environment, a couple loosely organized
clusters with embedded rotation will be possible. This should
generally be focused along/ahead of the northward-moving MCV over
the next few hours. Locally damaging gusts and possibly a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out with any stronger storms that evolve.

..Weinman/Smith.. 05/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_51klJlTye8YerO_yqv78hfVNatuoo038_u5Snjwut1_GiJ5MfOYVpceJ5t5B-UL4IeUiJfXz= oEKsjJBu_AxKAmdAO4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30178991 30799006 31338993 31768966 32008924 32048871
31868828 31518807 30988811 29928860 29648914 29788964
30178991=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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