ACUS11 KWNS 251921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251920=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-252115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0854
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Areas affected...portions of West Texas and southern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 251920Z - 252115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may pose a risk for isolated
severe wind gusts into this evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed across portions
of southern NM and West TX this afternoon in response to weak ascent
and strong diurnal heating east of a weak upper low over the
Southwest. Continued heating will likely allow for additional
development given a broad, but weakly unstable air mass (SBCAPE
500-1000 J/kg) over the southern Rockies/High Plains. Enhanced
southerly flow aloft will support some potential for organized multi
cells and clusters, given 20-30 kt of effective shear.

Increasing storm coverage is expected with further heating and weak
ascent overspreading the Davis mountains and Mexican Plateau this
afternoon. This could support a few strong to severe wind gusts as
low-level lapse rates are steep, with LCLs of 2500-3000 m. While
some severe risk is possible into this evening, the limited buoyancy
and moisture should keep the threat isolated. Severe potential will
be relatively maximized with any longer-lived multi cell clusters
that can become established. Still, the limited organization
potential suggests a watch is unlikely.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 05/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5OUe2vqUrQ1TMsUS1UEURe-wPIMgBZkQ5W6Av0suddp_8t7LTyPynNuUjbUQT7bwxEhGGcZds= 49TAEBa-0vGF1L91yI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 33900658 33900510 33370433 31160345 28940329 29370432
31600650 31760719 33260725 33900658=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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