ACUS11 KWNS 252019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252019=20
MNZ000-252215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0855
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Areas affected...Minnesota Arrowhead

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 252019Z - 252215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A storm or two is possible this afternoon/early evening,
particularly along the Canadian border. Marginally severe hail and
severe winds are possible with the most organized storms. A watch is
not likely.

DISCUSSION...Subtle influence from a shortwave trough moving through
Ontario has promoted thunderstorm development north of the Canadian
border this afternoon. Deepening cumulus are noted on visible
satellite within the Minnesota Arrowhead. Additional cumulus have
also developed farther northwest in the drier air. Given the
mid-level height rises that are occurring and expected to continue,
storm coverage, and intensity for that matter, in Minnesota are far
from clear. It does appear possible that a storm or two could
develop by late afternoon/early evening within a narrow corridor
from the axis of greater surface moisture and the lake breeze
boundary. This is more likely to occur near the border given the
greater influence of the shortwave trough. Temperatures are cold
enough aloft to support a marginal hail threat despite modest moisture/buoyancy. Severe winds could also occur given how
well-mixed the boundary layer is.

..Wendt/Gleason.. 05/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Nt3Sg5t0Xo9PE1szJMYmiwLUlW7V-HMepFpndfeYfJjzzg_yGjTMHkwNB8uBpVtwMQWLvsxd= J52-jBrIbNcUq1vAkY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON 47319365 47479400 47929445 48189431 48369393 48609325
48499211 48499204 48309089 48169024 47819038 47049157
46929222 47319365=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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