ACUS11 KWNS 252214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252213=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-260015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0856
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Areas affected...portions of the central Great Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 252213Z - 260015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may bring a
risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail. Watch issuance
is unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar/visible satellite imagery depicts isolated thunderstorms evolving within a broader cumulus field extending
across portions of the central High/Great Plains. Modifying the 18z
LBF observed sounding with the latest surface observations depicts a
deep, well-mixed boundary layer profile, with weak buoyancy (around
500-750 J/kg MLCAPE), minimal remaining inhibition, and an LCL above
3.5 km. While generally weak shear (generally less than 20-25 kts)
is expected to largely limit updraft organization, the thermodynamic environment will favor efficient evaporative cooling and the
potential for isolated damaging wind gusts. An instance or two of
large hail also cannot be ruled out with the strongest cores given
steep mid-level lapse rates. Current expectations are for isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms to evolve in this corridor over
the next couple of hours, with some potential for clustering along
outflow boundaries.

Latest surface analysis reveals a corridor of better low-level
moisture and instability farther east into eastern Nebraska and
southeastern South Dakota. Despite greater buoyancy, latest
mesoanalysis and observed soundings/ACARs profiles indicate
lingering capping across this region. Given this, it remains
uncertain whether storms will develop/evolve eastward into this
corridor of more favorable moisture/buoyancy. Should this occur,
however, modestly greater effective shear and MLCAPE of 1500-2000+
J/kg would support an increased threat for large hail with eastward
extent along with a threat for damaging wind gusts.

Watch issuance is unlikely at this time given the current
expectation for severe magnitude/coverage to remain limited. Trends
will continue to be monitored, however.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Arc9ElFApdarcR6AK7gVuM_guDktxpQcxcBtMZYyHV-fA8jrHD0t6YL7URtGMdeZpeA52XR1= C4VwwdkU7lAVvES91o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 40690228 42300073 42610035 42799992 42849881 42709786
42479726 42069701 41729734 41249809 40759884 39970011
38900132 38650176 38660223 38680272 38940300 39420299
40690228=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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