ACUS11 KWNS 252220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252220=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-260015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0857
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Areas affected...parts of the Florida Panhandle...southeastern Alabama...adjacent southwestern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 252220Z - 260015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The development of occasional supercell structures posing
a risk for brief, weak tornadoes may continue into early evening.=20
Due to the marginal/limited nature of this potential, it is not
clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends are being
monitored.

DISCUSSION...A modest belt of mean southerly ambient flow (on the
order of 20-30 kt) has developed inland across Alabama and Florida
Panhandle coastal areas, in association with a northeastward
migrating remnant mesoscale convective vortex to the northwest.=20
This has contributed to wind profiles including modest low-level
hodographs with clockwise curvature, along a low-level confluence
band which is providing a focus for vigorous thunderstorm
development extending west of Crestview FL southward offshore.

This convection is being supported by inflow of near saturated,
seasonably moist (including surface dew points in the lower/mid 70s
F) boundary layer air supportive of sizable CAPE up to around 2000
J/kg. And the environment has become conducive to supercell
structures with potential to produce brief/weak tornadoes. Given
the marginal nature of the wind profiles, the the enhancement of the near-surface buoyancy, and potential upward parcel accelerations,
associated with the higher moisture content has probably been
necessary to support this activity. It is possible that this could
continue another few hours and perhaps spread a bit farther inland.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6CNxqriapAjpj0_n4eTJhWwP-Z9pQ8Xkfg-ZPWdgjB_RtIicFaqRWUdVAscByNfrcYw2Do_La= VoI0zXS4Ee1FvKYpIw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31128626 31628590 31518547 31118513 30598506 29948552
30238617 30708599 31128626=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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