ABNT20 KNHC 131124
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Cristobal, located about 600 miles
west of the Azores.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of
the Lesser Antilles. This system will likely become a short-lived
tropical depression during the next day or two as it moves westward
across the tropical Atlantic. However, by late Friday, the system is
expected to move into a region of strong upper-level winds and dry
air, which should end its opportunity to develop. Interests in the
Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system as gusty
winds and areas of heavy rain are possible Friday night and
Saturday, regardless of development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Cristobal are issued under
WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Cristobal are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Adams

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ABNT20 KNHC 141122
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Windward Islands
is producing gusty winds and a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. This system is moving into a region of increasing
upper-level winds and dry air, and the potential of development
continues to decrease. Even though development is unlikely, gusty
winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic, located more
than 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while
the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Adams

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ABNT20 KNHC 151136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southeastern Caribbean Sea (AL92):
A tropical wave over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is producing
gusty winds and an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level
winds and dry air. Gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are still
possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic about midway
between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Limited
development of this system is possible over the next day or two
before the system encounters strong upper-level winds to the east
of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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ABNT20 KNHC 161140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

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ABNT20 KNHC 181132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Kelly

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ABNT20 KNHC 191136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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ABNT20 KNHC 201130
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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ABNT20 KNHC 211119
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northeastern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure has developed over the
northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles north-northeast of the
Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics on Saturday or early Sunday while it moves
east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern
Spain. The opportunity of tropical or subtropical development should
end by Sunday night when the system moves into unfavorable
environmental conditions. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A weak area of low pressure located over the central subtropical
Atlantic a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of
this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts west-southwestward through Sunday and then turns northward early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 221138
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northeastern Atlantic:
A strong non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the
northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles west of the coast of
Portugal. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics later today or on Sunday while it moves
east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern
Spain. The opportunity for tropical or subtropical development
should end Sunday night when the system encounters unfavorable
environmental conditions. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located over the central subtropical
Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda is producing
disorganized shower activity. Development of this system,
if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts westward
through Sunday and then accelerates northward early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday. An area of low pressure could form in association with the
wave soon after it moves off the coast, and subsequent development
will be possible while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through the end of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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ABNT20 KNHC 231132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northeastern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west
of the coast of Portugal is producing limited shower activity. This
system has only a slight chance of acquiring subtropical
characteristics later today while it moves eastward to east-
northeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern
Spain. By tonight, the low will encounter unfavorable environmental conditions, and further development is not expected. For more
information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast
of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is possible
during the next few days as it drifts northwestward today and then
accelerates northward early this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday, and an area of low pressure could form in association with
the wave early this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle to latter portions of the week while the
system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt

$$
Forecaster Blake
&&
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