ACUS11 KWNS 231749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231748
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-231945-

Mesoscale Discussion 2097
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Carolina coastline into far eastern
Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231748Z - 231945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms may pose an isolated risk
for damaging wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. Watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a relatively diffuse
cold front extending from the NC Coastal Plain into central South
Carolina, with a deepening cumulus field and an inland-progressing
sea breeze evident in visible satellite imagery ahead of this front.
Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected within this
corridor over the next 1-2 hours. Hot and humid conditions (surface temperatures near 90 F and dewpoints in the mid 70s F) are already
supporting 2000-3000+ J/kg, sufficient for at least a few robust
updrafts. Isolated damaging wind gusts may accompany any stronger
microbursts given modest PW (1.5-1.75 inches) and steepening
low-level lapse rates within this moderate to strongly unstable
environment. Despite relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, isolated
marginally severe hail also cannot be ruled out (particularly along
the northeastern SC and southeastern NC coastlines) with any
transient supercell structure that can develop amid effective shear
of around 35 kts. Trends will continue to be monitored, but watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time as severe coverage and
magnitude are expected to remain largely limited.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 08/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-ZEqpwgZCyzWlp_WoIJIdDq-Hv4rOJLRfQbZKGHcUjLzL8NoHgcWZpkaMIIYOdhOGsl9bBAJeWxuIctuwLVTpVYplRk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 32298023 31928084 31898110 31988142 32228156 32588148
32908126 33528051 34337923 34927778 35127734 35257668
35247640 35157619 34997606 34767616 34597648 34387697
33777801 32957931 32497999 32298023

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)