ACUS11 KWNS 232004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232004
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-232200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2101
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Nevada into northern Utah...southeast
Idaho...and southwest Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 232004Z - 232200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected in the coming hours
across northeast Nevada and northern Utah and adjacent portions of
Wyoming and Idaho. These storms will likely pose a threat for large
hail and severe winds. Watch issuance is expected as convection
begins to mature.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows steady vertical development
of cumulus and early thunderstorm initiation across UT into
northeast NV and southeast ID. Much of this early activity is tied
to enhanced orographic ascent within higher terrain features, though thermodynamic conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for
thunderstorm development across much of the region as temperatures
warm into the upper 80s within a plume of upper 40s to low 50s
dewpoints. Based on recent mesoanalysis estimates and modifications
to the 18z LKN sounding, MLCAPE values are increasing into the
500-1000 J/kg range with rapidly decreasing inhibition.

30-40 knot west/southwesterly flow sampled by the recent LKN
sounding will advect convection developing in northeast NV/western
UT across the plume of relatively higher buoyancy, and should also
support adequate hodograph elongation for organized convection.
Initially discrete/semi-discrete cells may pose an early threat of
marginally severe hail given somewhat elongated/straight hodographs,
but weak low-level flow and a propensity for splitting cells should
promote upscale growth with an increasing wind threat through late
afternoon and early evening.

Based on these observations and trends in latest guidance,
confidence in the overall severe threat appears greatest across
north-central UT and adjacent portions of ID and WY where buoyancy
is regionally maximized, low-level lapse rates are very steep (9
C/km), and convective coverage should be highest through peak
heating. Some solutions, notably recent runs of the HRRR, hint that
one or more somewhat better organized clusters may emerge across
this region and could result in more focused corridors of higher
wind potential. However, this will be conditional on realizing
adequate cold pool amalgamation and upscale growth, and may be thermodynamically limited to areas in/around the Great Salt Lake
where low-level moisture is locally higher. Regardless, watch
issuance is likely in the next hour or two for portions of the
region as storms begins to develop and mature.

..Moore/Smith.. 08/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8Cv3aWyWES7J0Lp_Fx7DWFXdw3dwNUCJqc_8SrbiWKRLjxsXtg3qyoSOeyCPTS6eCOkiACD5qpB7NWmL246eioxMrNg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON 40931009 40671013 40251084 39261253 38861375 38631468
38671530 38881607 39101656 39571655 40121610 41891422
43181250 43241202 43191174 42821117 42291051 41721014
41301002 40931009

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


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