Forum: 4WheelHam BBS

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 12:34:16 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 051234
SWODY1
SPC AC 051232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Discussion...
Progressive northwesterly flow aloft will continue to reside over
the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada, with a prominent upper
trough shifting eastward over Quebec. Surface high pressure and
large-scale subsidence will generally prevail east of the
Mississippi River, while surface troughing becomes established
across the Great Plains, but with limited moisture.

Along the Gulf Coast and Florida, some thunderstorms are expected
near/south of a southward-shifting frontal boundary. Isolated
low-topped thunderstorms may occur today from northern New York into
northern New England as a cold front shifts eastward. A few
convectively enhanced wind gusts might even occur across this region
as lapse rates diurnally steepen.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/05/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 16:31:12 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 051630
SWODY1
SPC AC 051628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Rather strong west-southwesterly low/mid-level flow will overspread
the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic today as an upper trough/low
over Quebec moves eastward through the period. While locally gusty
winds may occur with low-topped convection across parts of New
England, limited low-level moisture and related meager instability
will likely hinder an organized severe wind threat.

Showers and occasional thunderstorms will persist today over
portions of the Southeast as a slow-moving front remains draped from
the northern Gulf into southern GA/northern FL. A moist airmass is
in place south of this boundary, but weak low/mid-level winds, poor
lapse rates aloft, and effective bulk shear less than 30 kt will
hamper updraft organization and severe potential.

Elsewhere, isolated convection may continue today across parts of
the Sierra into Great Basin, and over parts of the southern/central
Rockies, as a weak upper trough develops eastward. Elevated
thunderstorms may also occur late this afternoon through tonight
across parts of the Upper Midwest. For all these regions, weak
instability will greatly limit the risk for severe thunderstorms.

..Gleason/Chalmers.. 10/05/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 19:59:02 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 051958
SWODY1
SPC AC 051956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 10/05/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Rather strong west-southwesterly low/mid-level flow will overspread
the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic today as an upper trough/low
over Quebec moves eastward through the period. While locally gusty
winds may occur with low-topped convection across parts of New
England, limited low-level moisture and related meager instability
will likely hinder an organized severe wind threat.

Showers and occasional thunderstorms will persist today over
portions of the Southeast as a slow-moving front remains draped from
the northern Gulf into southern GA/northern FL. A moist airmass is
in place south of this boundary, but weak low/mid-level winds, poor
lapse rates aloft, and effective bulk shear less than 30 kt will
hamper updraft organization and severe potential.

Elsewhere, isolated convection may continue today across parts of
the Sierra into Great Basin, and over parts of the southern/central
Rockies, as a weak upper trough develops eastward. Elevated
thunderstorms may also occur late this afternoon through tonight
across parts of the Upper Midwest. For all these regions, weak
instability will greatly limit the risk for severe thunderstorms.

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 00:49:24 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 060049
SWODY1
SPC AC 060047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A 500 mb upper trough will continue to eject into the Atlantic as
surface high pressure sets in from the Great Lakes to the East
Coast. Showers and thunderstorms will continue along portions of the
Gulf Coast to the FL Peninsula through tonight, where an unstable
boundary layer, driven by 70s F surface dewpoints, remains in place.
A few lightning flashes may also occur over the next couple of hours
with ongoing isolated thunderstorms over the Great Basin, southern
CO/northern NM, and the Upper MS Valley given cooler temperatures
aloft.

..Squitieri.. 10/06/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 04:34:56 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 060434
SWODY1
SPC AC 060432

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today.

...Synopsis...
A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will encompass most of the
CONUS as a 500 mb jet maximum overspreads the northern Plains from
the central Canadian provinces today. A surface trough will progress
across the MS Valley in tandem with the mid-level speed maximum,
with surface high pressure remaining in place east of the
Appalachians and West of the Rockies. A relatively cool and stable
airmass will overspread most of the CONUS and limit thunderstorm
potential over most areas. The main exception will be the FL
Peninsula, where 70s F surface dewpoints will reside ahead of a
diffuse baroclinic boundary, promoting enough buoyancy (albeit
marginal) to support scattered thunderstorm potential. Colder
temperatures aloft accompanying subtle impulses across the eastern
Great Basin/Central Rockies and the northern Great Lakes will
encourage a few lightning flashes in these regions as well.

...Central Florida Peninsula...
A weak surface low is poised to develop along portions of the
eastern Gulf and encourage locally backed surface winds across the
central FL Peninsula. Strengthening/veering flow with height will
yield modestly curved and elongated hodographs, but with marginal,
thin CAPE profiles given very poor (5-5.5 C/km) mid-level lapse
rates. A few storms may exhibit brief periods of transient low-level
rotation offshore, but the threat for persistent, rotating updrafts
reaching the shoreline appear too low for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/06/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 12:46:56 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 061246
SWODY1
SPC AC 061245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today.

...Central Florida Peninsula...
Showers/some thunderstorms are common early today near the residual
front from the northern Gulf to the north-central Florida Peninsula.
A weak surface low/frontal wave is expected to develop over the
northeast Gulf today, with some guidance advertising an increase in low/mid-tropospheric flow late today into tonight, as early day wind
profiles are otherwise weak (reference 12z observed sounding from
Tampa Bay). The more shear-optimistic guidance scenarios, via strengthening/veering flow with height, suggest wind profiles could
trend conducive to weak/transient supercells. That said,
destabilization across the Peninsula near the front is questionable
with the expected persistence of marginal, thin CAPE profiles and
poor (5-5.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. A few storms may exhibit brief/transient low-level rotation offshore, but the threat for
persistent, rotating updrafts reaching near-shore/inland areas later
today into tonight currently appears low.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/06/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 16:04:58 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 061604
SWODY1
SPC AC 061602

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A Marginal Risk for a brief waterspout/tornado is forecast near the
coast of the west-central part of the Florida Peninsula through
tonight.

...Central Florida Peninsula...
Radar mosaic shows a discontinuous cluster of showers/thunderstorms
over the northeast Gulf associated with a weak surface low/frontal
wave along a frontal zone draped across the central part of the FL
Peninsula. Model guidance continues to show a modest enlargement of
the hodograph through the late afternoon and continuing into
tonight. Although tropospheric lapse rates will remain poor,
sufficient heating in areas void of thicker clouds/rain will lead to
weak destabilization across the central part of the Peninsula, as
well as over the warm shelf waters west of Tampa Bay (200-500 J/kg
MLCAPE). Radar observations earlier this morning showed a few
brief/transient supercell structures. Expecting an episodic
continuation of these convective characteristics to eventually
migrate closer to the immediate coast this afternoon and perhaps
linger into late tonight. As a result, a brief waterspout/tornado
will be possible near the coast of the west-central portion of the
Peninsula.

Elsewhere, severe weather is not forecast.

..Smith/Karstens.. 10/06/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 19:58:34 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 061958
SWODY1
SPC AC 061956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WEST-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A Marginal Risk for a brief waterspout/tornado is forecast near the
coast of the west-central part of the Florida Peninsula through
tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes were made to the outlook with this update. For
information on the near-term severe risk, see MCD #2346.

..Weinman.. 10/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026/

...Central Florida Peninsula...
Radar mosaic shows a discontinuous cluster of showers/thunderstorms
over the northeast Gulf associated with a weak surface low/frontal
wave along a frontal zone draped across the central part of the FL
Peninsula. Model guidance continues to show a modest enlargement of
the hodograph through the late afternoon and continuing into
tonight. Although tropospheric lapse rates will remain poor,
sufficient heating in areas void of thicker clouds/rain will lead to
weak destabilization across the central part of the Peninsula, as
well as over the warm shelf waters west of Tampa Bay (200-500 J/kg
MLCAPE). Radar observations earlier this morning showed a few
brief/transient supercell structures. Expecting an episodic
continuation of these convective characteristics to eventually
migrate closer to the immediate coast this afternoon and perhaps
linger into late tonight. As a result, a brief waterspout/tornado
will be possible near the coast of the west-central portion of the
Peninsula.

Elsewhere, severe weather is not forecast.

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 00:59:14 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 070058
SWODY1
SPC AC 070056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A northwesterly upper flow regime continues across the CONUS as a
mid-level jet overspreads the northern Plains from the south-central
Canadian provinces. Surface high pressure remains in place east of
the MS River and west of the Rockies, with subsidence limiting
thunderstorm development over much of the CONUS. Isolated
thunderstorm development is still possible over portions of the FL
Peninsula. Earlier, transient rotating storms attempted to reach the
western peninsula shoreline, but weakened when approaching land.
With nocturnal cooling, and the weak surface low expected to meander
over the eastern Gulf, the current thinking is that thunderstorms
should only decrease in number and intensity through the night.
While a brief, land-falling waterspout cannot be ruled out, the
tornado threat appears low enough for the removal of severe
probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 10/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 04:47:30 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 070447
SWODY1
SPC AC 070445

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. today.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify over the Northeast while broad upper
ridging overspreads much of the western and central CONUS today.
This upper-air pattern will support surface troughing over the
Northeast, and encourage surface high pressure to overspread the
remainder of the U.S. With the upper trough over the northern Great Lakes/Northeast, and with a subtle impulse over the Four Corners to
the central Plains, a few thunderstorms are possible given colder
temperatures aloft with these aforementioned features. The best
chance for thunderstorms will be along a moistened baroclinic zone
ahead of a weak surface low over central FL.

...Western FL Peninsula Coastline...
Similar to yesterday, a weak surface low will remain in place over
the eastern Gulf, amid a moist low-level airmass, characterized by
70s F surface dewpoints and minimal MLCINH. With afternoon heating, thunderstorm development should occur. As in previous days, lapse
rates will be poor, with buoyancy driven by the rich low-level
moisture, contributing to thin (500-1000 J/kg) MLCAPE profiles.
Vertical wind shear will also be modest, though low-level veering
may yield some low-level hodograph curvature and associated
transient supercell potential. While waterspout potential will exist
offshore, it is unclear if tornadic waterspout-producing storms will
reach the western FL Peninsula coast, so severe probabilities will
be withheld for now. However, severe probabilities may need to be
added in later outlooks when meso-beta scale details regarding
onshore severe potential become clearer.

..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 12:45:44 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 071245
SWODY1
SPC AC 071243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. today
and tonight.

...West-central Florida Peninsula...
A generally similar meteorological setup as yesterday is expected,
with any strong/severe storm risk focused near/east of a weak
surface wave, and along a front that extends from the northeast Gulf east-northeastward across the middle part of the Peninsula.
Scattered showers with some thunderstorms are occurring early this
morning either side of the front, and cloud cover is prevalent,
although scattered cloud breaks are noted offshore over the eastern
Gulf. A moist environment resides near/south of the front, with
prevalent 70s F surface dewpoints and a 2.53 inch Precipitable Water
value as sampled per the 12z observed Tampa Bay sounding. However,
given cloud cover and ongoing precipitation, lapse rates will remain
poor with limited overall instability and thin buoyancy profiles,
which will tend to limit storm vigor.

Vertical wind shear will also be modest (effective shear generally
25 kt or less), and while 1-3 km AGL flow will remain weak, some
low-level veering will yield some hodograph curvature that could
support transient supercell potential. While waterspout potential
will exist offshore, it is unclear if tornadic waterspout-producing
storms will reach the west-central Florida Peninsula and/or if
supercells will develop inland. Current thinking is that today's
severe risk will remain low, but any need for severe probabilities
will continue to be re-evaluated in subsequent outlooks.

...Northern New York...
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible late today and
more so into tonight, influenced by an amplifying upstream
upper-level trough and approaching cold front. Overall buoyancy will
be limited, but still sufficient for the possibility of
thunderstorms. Furthermore, some convective enhancement/gusty winds
are plausible tonight given the increasing magnitude of the low/mid-tropospheric flow and steepening lapse rates atop the
boundary layer.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 14:02:20 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 071245
SWODY1
SPC AC 071243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. today
and tonight.

...West-central Florida Peninsula...
A generally similar meteorological setup as yesterday is expected,
with any strong/severe storm risk focused near/east of a weak
surface wave, and along a front that extends from the northeast Gulf east-northeastward across the middle part of the Peninsula.
Scattered showers with some thunderstorms are occurring early this
morning either side of the front, and cloud cover is prevalent,
although scattered cloud breaks are noted offshore over the eastern
Gulf. A moist environment resides near/south of the front, with
prevalent 70s F surface dewpoints and a 2.53 inch Precipitable Water
value as sampled per the 12z observed Tampa Bay sounding. However,
given cloud cover and ongoing precipitation, lapse rates will remain
poor with limited overall instability and thin buoyancy profiles,
which will tend to limit storm vigor.

Vertical wind shear will also be modest (effective shear generally
25 kt or less), and while 1-3 km AGL flow will remain weak, some
low-level veering will yield some hodograph curvature that could
support transient supercell potential. While waterspout potential
will exist offshore, it is unclear if tornadic waterspout-producing
storms will reach the west-central Florida Peninsula and/or if
supercells will develop inland. Current thinking is that today's
severe risk will remain low, but any need for severe probabilities
will continue to be re-evaluated in subsequent outlooks.

...Northern New York...
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible late today and
more so into tonight, influenced by an amplifying upstream
upper-level trough and approaching cold front. Overall buoyancy will
be limited, but still sufficient for the possibility of
thunderstorms. Furthermore, some convective enhancement/gusty winds
are plausible tonight given the increasing magnitude of the low/mid-tropospheric flow and steepening lapse rates atop the
boundary layer.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 16:22:58 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 071622
SWODY1
SPC AC 071620

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous
United States through tonight.

...Central portion of the Florida Peninsula...
A diffuse frontal zone modulated by scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorm activity will remain draped over the central portion of
the FL Peninsula through tonight. A very moist tropospheric profile
(sampled by the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob) featuring weak lapse rates
will limit overall updraft strength with scattered convection this
afternoon across the Peninsula. Weak flow (at or below 20 kt) from
surface through 300 mb will also act to restrict storm organization
potential. Although a brief tornado/waterspout near the coast
cannot be ruled out, it appears the risk for transient supercell
structures and an associated threat for a brief tornado appear
sufficiently low to preclude introducing severe probabilities this
outlook update.

...Northern New York...
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible late today and
more so into tonight, influenced by an amplifying upstream
upper-level trough and approaching cold front. Overall buoyancy
will be limited, but still sufficient for the possibility of
thunderstorms. Furthermore, some convective enhancement/gusty winds
are plausible tonight given the increasing magnitude of the low/mid-tropospheric flow and steepening lapse rates atop the
boundary layer.

..Smith/Barnes.. 10/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 19:43:32 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 071943
SWODY1
SPC AC 071941

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous
United States through tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes were needed with this update. Within the exit region of a
robust midlevel jet overspreading the Midwest, a couple of strong
low-topped thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Great Lakes
this afternoon, and over the Lower Great Lakes this evening/tonight.
While enhanced low/midlevel flow accompanying the jet and steep
lapse rates could aid in a few strong wind gusts (potentially 40-50
mph) across both areas, limited buoyancy and increasing low-level
static stability over the Lower Great Lakes should limit the overall
severe risk.

..Weinman.. 10/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026/

...Central portion of the Florida Peninsula...
A diffuse frontal zone modulated by scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorm activity will remain draped over the central portion of
the FL Peninsula through tonight. A very moist tropospheric profile
(sampled by the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob) featuring weak lapse rates
will limit overall updraft strength with scattered convection this
afternoon across the Peninsula. Weak flow (at or below 20 kt) from
surface through 300 mb will also act to restrict storm organization
potential. Although a brief tornado/waterspout near the coast
cannot be ruled out, it appears the risk for transient supercell
structures and an associated threat for a brief tornado appear
sufficiently low to preclude introducing severe probabilities this
outlook update.

...Northern New York...
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible late today and
more so into tonight, influenced by an amplifying upstream
upper-level trough and approaching cold front. Overall buoyancy
will be limited, but still sufficient for the possibility of
thunderstorms. Furthermore, some convective enhancement/gusty winds
are plausible tonight given the increasing magnitude of the low/mid-tropospheric flow and steepening lapse rates atop the
boundary layer.

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 01:00:38 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 080100
SWODY1
SPC AC 080058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. this evening and
tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern is in place over the northeastern
third of the nation, with west-northwesterly flow located over the
remainder of the U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is located in
along the Gulf Coast, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible
this evening and tonight, mainly across the Florida Peninsula.
Scattered storms will also be possible ahead of a shortwave trough
in the Northeast, and across parts of the Four Corners region. No
severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. through
daybreak on Thursday.

..Broyles.. 10/08/2026

$$

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From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 05:55:10 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 080554
SWODY1
SPC AC 080552

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or
tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today from the
upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast, as west-northwesterly
flow aloft remains over most of the remainder of the nation. At the
surface, a moist airmass will be located along the Gulf Coast, where
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible, mainly from
southeastern Louisiana eastward to Florida. Additional storms may
develop in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.
Scattered storms will also be possible in Iowa and from northern New
York into northern New England. No severe threat is expected today
or tonight across the continental U.S.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/08/2026

$$

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From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 12:48:32 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 081248
SWODY1
SPC AC 081246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the middle Florida
Peninsula today and/or across parts of the Upper Midwest and middle
Missouri Valley tonight.

...Florida Peninsula...
A semi-persistent general pattern continues with storms focusing
along a convectively reinforced front from the eastern Gulf across
the middle part of the Peninsula. While not a high-confidence
scenario, a few subtleties may imply a bit more near-shore supercell
and waterspout/brief tornado potential as compared to yesterday.

The latest WSR-88D VWP data from KTBW samples weak
lower-tropospheric winds but with moderate directional turning and a
speed increase above 3km AGL, netting around 25-30 kt effective
shear. This is consistent with a modest 00z-to-12z increase in winds
aloft noted in Tampa Bay observed soundings, with a mid-level
cooling trend also noted. Winds aloft may further trend a bit upward
this afternoon per various guidance, potentially supporting a few organized/sustained storms capable of at least weak/transient
rotation, especially in vicinity of the surface front. It also
appears that clouds are not quite as prevalent early today within
the nearby warm sector inland, which could modestly boost parcel
accelerations within a very moist environment, characterized by
73-75F surface dewpoints. The overall scenario could seemingly
support some potential for near-shore waterspouts or possibly even a
brief tornado inland near the front.

...Iowa/middle Missouri Valley tonight...
Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms should develop
tonight as warm advection and isentropic ascent increase to the
northeast of a northeastward-advancing warm front. Source region
moisture will be modest, but sufficient mid-level moistening will
support thunderstorm potential on the edge of the Great Plains
elevated mixed layer. While some elevated moisture/buoyancy guidance
depictions may be a bit too aggressive (such as the NAM), a general
increase in guidance trends lends credence to the possibility that
750-1250 J/kg MUCAPE may materialize. With effective shear in the
cloud-bearing layer expected to increase to 40+ kt, the possibility
exists for a few elevated supercells late this evening into the
overnight, with a few instances of hail possible.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/08/2026

$$

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From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 16:38:50 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 081625
SWODY1
SPC AC 081623

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the central portion
of the Florida Peninsula and/or across Iowa tonight.

...Florida Peninsula...
Visible-satellite imagery shows a cloud shield generally near and
north of a residual frontal zone draped across the central portion
of the FL Peninsula. Filtered sunshine generally south of the I-4
corridor will contribute to weak destabilization in the presence of
a tropical airmass characterized by mid-upper 70s deg F surface
dewpoints. Model forecast soundings show moderate effective shear
(25-30 kt) and a veering wind profile through a deep layer. Given
the very moist boundary layer coupled with proximity to the frontal
zone and shear supporting potentially transient weak rotation, a
brief tornado or waterspout is possible.

...Iowa...
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are forecast
tonight in tandem with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing as warm
advection and isentropic ascent increase to the northeast of a northeastward-advancing warm front. With effective shear in the
cloud-bearing layer expected to increase to 40+ kt, the possibility
exists for a few elevated supercells late this evening into the
overnight, with a few instances of marginally severe hail possible.

..Smith/Jirak.. 10/08/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 20:04:12 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 081933
SWODY1
SPC AC 081932

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the central portion
of the Florida Peninsula and/or across Iowa tonight.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this
update. See the previous discussion below for details.

..Weinman.. 10/08/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026/

...Florida Peninsula...
Visible-satellite imagery shows a cloud shield generally near and
north of a residual frontal zone draped across the central portion
of the FL Peninsula. Filtered sunshine generally south of the I-4
corridor will contribute to weak destabilization in the presence of
a tropical airmass characterized by mid-upper 70s deg F surface
dewpoints. Model forecast soundings show moderate effective shear
(25-30 kt) and a veering wind profile through a deep layer. Given
the very moist boundary layer coupled with proximity to the frontal
zone and shear supporting potentially transient weak rotation, a
brief tornado or waterspout is possible.

...Iowa...
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are forecast
tonight in tandem with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing as warm
advection and isentropic ascent increase to the northeast of a northeastward-advancing warm front. With effective shear in the
cloud-bearing layer expected to increase to 40+ kt, the possibility
exists for a few elevated supercells late this evening into the
overnight, with a few instances of marginally severe hail possible.

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 06:08:30 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 090100
SWODY1
SPC AC 090058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the west-central
part of the Florida Peninsula and across parts of Iowa tonight.

...Florida Peninsula...
Water vapor imagery currently shows a plume of mid-level moisture
associated with Hurricane Isaias from the central Gulf of America
northeastward across much of the Southeast. Thunderstorms associated
with Isaias will move inland across the Florida Peninsula this
evening into tonight. Over the southern half of Florida, the RAP
shows MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. The most favorable zone
for rotating storms will be along the northern edge of the stronger
instability near and to the southeast of Tampa Bay. RAP forecast
soundings in the area have veering winds with height in the lowest 3
km with enough low-level shear for an isolated tornado threat.

...Iowa...
At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow is located over the central
and northern U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be moving
through South Dakota. Lift will be maximized in the mid Missouri
Valley ahead of this feature, along the far eastern edge of a
central Plains low-level speed max. As low-level flow increases this
evening, elevated storms will continue to develop over western and
central Iowa. RAP forecast soundings in west-central Iowa show a
sharp temperature inversion at low-levels, with steep lapse rates
above 900 mb. The resulting MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 1500 to
2000 J/kg range. This combined with about 50 knots of effective
shear should be enough for an isolated hail threat.

..Broyles.. 10/09/2026

$$

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From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 18:39:28 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 090539
SWODY1
SPC AC 090537

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Isaias will have potential
to produce tornadoes from this afternoon into the overnight period
from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia.

...Florida Panhandle/Southeast Alabama/Southwest Georgia...
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Isaias to make landfall
near Pensacola early this evening. As the center of Isaias
approaches the Gulf Coast this afternoon, rainbands will spread
across the Florida Panhandle. Within these bands, thunderstorms will
develop and move inland. The airmass ahead of these bands is
forecast to be very moist and unstable. Surface dewpoints in the mid
to upper 70s will contribute to moderate instability, with MLCAPE
likely peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range along parts of the
coast. RAP forecast soundings in the Florida Panhandle to the east
of Isaias' center early this evening suggest that 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity will increase to around 200 m2/s2, which
will support rotating storms with potential to produce tornadoes.
The tornado threat is expected to persist into the overnight period
as the rainbands associated with Isaias move northward into southern
Alabama and southwest Georgia.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/09/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 18:43:48 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 091615
SWODY1
SPC AC 091613

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
With the approach of Hurricane Isaias, tornado potential will
steadily increase this afternoon and continue tonight, especially
across the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia.

...Florida Panhandle into northern Florida/southern Alabama/southern
Georgia...
Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast
track/intensity details regarding Hurricane Isaias. The latest
discussion indicates that Isaias has reached major hurricane status
as it moves north-northeastward toward the western Florida
Panhandle/far southern Alabama.

As Isaias approaches the coast, rainbands on its eastern periphery
will spread northward toward the Big Bend of the Florida Panhandle,
far southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon
into tonight. Throughout the day, a more unstable airmass over the
eastern Gulf will advance northward, resulting in destabilization
over the coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle. The current VAD
profile at KTLH is already supportive of tornado potential (i.e.,
0-1 SRH over 250 m2/s2), and low-level winds and SRH will strengthen significantly this afternoon and evening. Once the mid 70s F
dewpoints come onshore, persistent, deeper updrafts will be possible
with the propensity to rotate and have the potential to produce
tornadoes, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Additionally, some enhancement to the wind field, potentially
including a convective influence, may occur across southern Alabama
in vicinity of the evolving inverted surface trough late this
afternoon into tonight.

..Jirak/Smith.. 10/09/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 19:38:30 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 091258
SWODY1
SPC AC 091257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
With the approach of Hurricane Isaias, tornado potential will
steadily increase this afternoon and continue tonight, especially
across the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia.

...Northern Florida/southern Alabama/southern Georgia...
Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast
track/intensity details regarding Hurricane Isaias. Such forecasts
call for additional strengthening of Isaias today as it continues
generally north-northeastward toward the Florida Panhandle/far
southern Alabama.

As this scenario unfolds, eastern-peripheral rainbands will spread
northward, potentially as far east as the near-coastal western
Peninsula today, and more so toward the Florida coastal bend and
eventually broader parts of the Florida Panhandle, far southern
Alabama and southern Georgia by late today into tonight. This will
occur as inland continental trajectories are displaced/overcome by a northward-advancing Isaias and eastward-extending maritime warm
front. Destabilization will tend to be maximized in coastal areas on
its eastern periphery, all while low-level winds/SRH significantly
strengthen over time. Rotating storms will have the potential to
produce tornadoes, particularly across the Florida Panhandle/nearby
northern Florida into southeast Alabama and far southern Georgia.

Additionally, some enhancement to the wind field, potentially
including a convective influence, may occur across southern Alabama
in vicinity of the evolving inverted surface trough late this
afternoon into tonight.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 10/09/2026

$$

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From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 19:58:44 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 091958
SWODY1
SPC AC 091956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
With the approach of Hurricane Isaias, tornado potential will
continue increasing through the remainder of the afternoon and
continue tonight, especially across the Florida Panhandle into
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. For details on the near-term severe risk, see MCD
#2349 and Tornado Watch #677.

..Weinman.. 10/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026/

...Florida Panhandle into northern Florida/southern Alabama/southern
Georgia...
Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast
track/intensity details regarding Hurricane Isaias. The latest
discussion indicates that Isaias has reached major hurricane status
as it moves north-northeastward toward the western Florida
Panhandle/far southern Alabama.

As Isaias approaches the coast, rainbands on its eastern periphery
will spread northward toward the Big Bend of the Florida Panhandle,
far southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon
into tonight. Throughout the day, a more unstable airmass over the
eastern Gulf will advance northward, resulting in destabilization
over the coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle. The current VAD
profile at KTLH is already supportive of tornado potential (i.e.,
0-1 SRH over 250 m2/s2), and low-level winds and SRH will strengthen significantly this afternoon and evening. Once the mid 70s F
dewpoints come onshore, persistent, deeper updrafts will be possible
with the propensity to rotate and have the potential to produce
tornadoes, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Additionally, some enhancement to the wind field, potentially
including a convective influence, may occur across southern Alabama
in vicinity of the evolving inverted surface trough late this
afternoon into tonight.

$$
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From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 01:00:28 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 100100
SWODY1
SPC AC 100058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Isaias will move inland this
evening into the overnight. Rotating cells could be associated with
a tornado threat, mainly from the Florida Panhandle northward into
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.

...DISCUSSION...
The center of Hurricane Isaias is currently near the Florida coast.
The primary band of rainfall is north of the Isaias' center over the
western Florida Panhandle. A second rainband extends from the
eastern Florida Panhandle southward along the coast of the
northwestern Florida Peninsula. Thunderstorms will continue to form
within these rainbands and move northward over land this evening.
The latest WSR-88D VWPs in the Florida Panhandle have strong
low-level shear profiles with large looped hodographs. This will
support the development of rotating storms with tornado potential,
mainly with cells that remain semi-discrete. The tornado threat is
expected to continue through this evening into overnight period,
with the threat gradually moving northward into southeast Alabama
and southwestern Georgia.

..Broyles.. 10/10/2026

$$
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From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 05:56:24 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 100556
SWODY1
SPC AC 100554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat will be possible
today from the eastern Florida Panhandle northeastward into the
Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the
Desert Southwest.

...Eastern Florida Panhandle/Georgia/Carolinas...
The remnants of Isaias are forecast to move northward into the
Tennessee Valley today. The eastern extent of the system will move north-northeastward across Georgia and South Carolina today, where
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop as surface
temperatures warm. From eastern Georgia into South Carolina, surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F will contribute to moderate
instability, with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg
range. RAP forecast soundings along and near the axis of instability
this afternoon have veering winds with height below 850 mb and 30 to
40 knot of flow in the low to mid-levels. 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity is forecast to peak near 225 m2/s2. This will support a
tornado threat with supercells that remain semi-discrete. The
tornado threat is expected to persist into the evening as the
eastern periphery of Isaias moves into the Carolinas.

...Western and Southern Arizona/Southeast California...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward toward Baja
California today, with the system interacting with Tropical Storm
Rachel. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture advection will
increase surface dewpoints into the 60s F over much of western and
southern Arizona by this evening. In response, MLCAPE is forecast to
increase to near 1000 J/kg over parts of southwest Arizona. This
combined with large-scale ascent ahead of the system and lift
associated with a low-level jet will provide support for scattered
thunderstorm development. In addition, the exit region of a
mid-level jet is forecast to overspread southwest Arizona during the
evening. This feature will create moderate to strong deep-layer
shear, which will be sufficient for supercells. If a supercell can
develop, then isolated severe wind gusts would be possible.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/10/2026

$$
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From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 12:50:50 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 101250
SWODY1
SPC AC 101248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat will be possible
today from eastern Georgia into western/southern South Carolina. A
few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Desert
Southwest.

...Eastern Florida Panhandle/Georgia/Carolinas...
Isaias underwent a rapid transition to a post-tropical cyclone after
landfall Friday evening, with a notable baroclinic zone now in place
throughout its eastern periphery. The low-level center of this
system is currently over southeast AL, with a warm front extending east-northeastward from this center across central GA, central SC,
and eastern NC. General expectation is for this former tropical
cyclone to spend the first half of the period completing its
transition to a mid-latitude cyclone over MS/AL before then
progressing northeastward across the TN Valley later tonight. The
surface low is expected to drift northeastward as the system
matures, centering over northern AL by 00Z. As it does, its warm
sector, which is characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints, will
expand northwestward into more of GA and the Carolinas. This
increase in low-level moisture will support moderate buoyancy (i.e.
MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg) despite widespread cloudiness and limited
heating. Low-level confluence within the warm sector, augmented by
modest but persistent large-scale ascent, is expected to support
thunderstorm development throughout the period, particularly during
the afternoon.

The stronger low to mid-level flow will be displaced west of the
greater low-level moisture and associated buoyancy. Even so,
southeasterly low-level flow veering to southerly in the mid/upper
levels will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for
occasional organization/intensification of the predominantly
multicellular structures. Several brief tornadoes could result
within any of these more organized storms. Convectively augmented
damaging wind gusts are possible as well. Greatest severe potential
is expected along the GA/SC border vicinity between 21Z and 00Z.

...Lower CO River Valley into South-Central AZ...
Complex synoptic evolution is anticipated over the eastern Pacific
Ocean, just upstream of southern CA and the Baja Peninsula, as
Tropical Storm Rachel interacts with a compact mid-latitude cyclone.
The interaction will increase the northeastward motion of the
tropical cyclone, while also resulting an expanded low to mid-level
wind field. Additionally, this evolution will favor advection of
notable low-level moisture into the Lower CO River Valley and
adjacent southern/central AZ. Overall thunderstorm coverage is
expected to increase throughout the day into tonight. Deep-layer
vertical shear will be stronger enough for supercells, a few of
which could produce strong wind gusts. Additionally, surface low
associated with the tropical cyclone is forecast to move into the
Lower CO River Valley region after 06Z. Increase low-level winds and
moisture will support a low-probability tornado threat.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/10/2026

$$
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From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 16:30:50 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 101630
SWODY1
SPC AC 101628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of tornadoes are possible today over eastern Georgia into
the Carolinas.

...FL Big Bend/Georgia/Carolinas...
Midday surface mesoanalysis places the remnant circulation from
Isaias over central AL with a west-east oriented frontal zone
extending eastward from the low to the SC coast. A cold front arcs
southeast through western GA into the FL Panhandle. The warm sector
continues to destabilize as cloud cover thins and stronger heating
commences. A bubbling cumulus field will eventually transition to
scattered convective development this afternoon. The warm front
will gradually advance northward through central SC later today and
the coastal plain of NC. Enlarged hodographs will conditionally
support storm-scale rotation with stronger and more persistent
updrafts. A couple of tornadoes are possible primarily coincident
with the diurnal heating cycle when buoyancy will be maximized.
Models show surface-based instability eventually inundating northern
portions of SC as the warm front advances north tonight. A Marginal
Risk for a tornado or two may continue tonight, although uncertainty
is high regarding this potential scenario.

...Southeast ID...
Water-vapor imagery shows an upper trough pivoting slowly east
across the Pacific Northwest today. A belt of 40+ kt 500-mb
southwesterly flow will extend through the base of the trough and
areas downstream across the northern Great Basin into the northern
Rockies. As temperatures gradually warm and clouds erode through
the mid afternoon, forecast soundings show very steep surface to
500-mb lapse rates and the development of weak buoyancy. Guidance
suggests scattered storms developing later this afternoon and moving
east across the Upper Snake Valley into western WY. An isolated
risk for marginally severe hail and severe gusts may accompany the
stronger storms.

...Lower CO River Valley into South-Central AZ...
Tropical Storm Rachel will undergo an extratropical transition
during the period as it moves northeast into the lower CO Valley by
early Sunday morning per the latest NHC forecast. An
intensification of the wind profile through a deep layer is evident
in forecast soundings across the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts
especially tonight. Seasonably rich boundary layer moisture
advecting north will contribute to at least weak destabilization and
the possibility for a few organized updrafts. Will maintain
low-severe probabilities this outlook update.

..Smith/Barnes.. 10/10/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 20:02:22 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 102002
SWODY1
SPC AC 102000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for a few tornadoes will continue into this evening across
parts of eastern Georgia into southern and eastern South Carolina.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the addition of CIG1 tornado
area, focused along the border of eastern GA and southern SC. The
combination of a large/clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (330
m2/s2 0-1km SRH per CAE VWP) and a warm/moist PBL along an effective
warm front will conditionally support a strong tornado with any
established supercells this afternoon and evening. For additional
details on the near-term severe risk, see Tornado Watch #679.

Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, and only minor
changes were made.

..Weinman.. 10/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026/

...FL Big Bend/Georgia/Carolinas...
Midday surface mesoanalysis places the remnant circulation from
Isaias over central AL with a west-east oriented frontal zone
extending eastward from the low to the SC coast. A cold front arcs
southeast through western GA into the FL Panhandle. The warm sector
continues to destabilize as cloud cover thins and stronger heating
commences. A bubbling cumulus field will eventually transition to
scattered convective development this afternoon. The warm front
will gradually advance northward through central SC later today and
the coastal plain of NC. Enlarged hodographs will conditionally
support storm-scale rotation with stronger and more persistent
updrafts. A couple of tornadoes are possible primarily coincident
with the diurnal heating cycle when buoyancy will be maximized.
Models show surface-based instability eventually inundating northern
portions of SC as the warm front advances north tonight. A Marginal
Risk for a tornado or two may continue tonight, although uncertainty
is high regarding this potential scenario.

...Southeast ID...
Water-vapor imagery shows an upper trough pivoting slowly east
across the Pacific Northwest today. A belt of 40+ kt 500-mb
southwesterly flow will extend through the base of the trough and
areas downstream across the northern Great Basin into the northern
Rockies. As temperatures gradually warm and clouds erode through
the mid afternoon, forecast soundings show very steep surface to
500-mb lapse rates and the development of weak buoyancy. Guidance
suggests scattered storms developing later this afternoon and moving
east across the Upper Snake Valley into western WY. An isolated
risk for marginally severe hail and severe gusts may accompany the
stronger storms.

...Lower CO River Valley into South-Central AZ...
Tropical Storm Rachel will undergo an extratropical transition
during the period as it moves northeast into the lower CO Valley by
early Sunday morning per the latest NHC forecast. An
intensification of the wind profile through a deep layer is evident
in forecast soundings across the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts
especially tonight. Seasonably rich boundary layer moisture
advecting north will contribute to at least weak destabilization and
the possibility for a few organized updrafts. Will maintain
low-severe probabilities this outlook update.

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 00:59:56 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 110059
SWODY1
SPC AC 110057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with an isolated tornado threat will be
possible this evening across parts of the Carolinas. A few severe
wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest.

...Carolinas...
The remnants of Isaias will continue to move northward across the
Tennessee Valley this evening. In the eastern part of the system,
scattered convection with little lightning activity is currently
ongoing from eastern Georgia northward into the western Carolinas.
This convection is located along and near the axis of a low-level
jet. Surface analysis has dewpoints over much of eastern Georgia and
southern South Carolina in the 70s F. Within this moist airmass, the
RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, the
latest WSR-88D VWP at Columbia, South Carolina has a looped
hodograph with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This
strong low-level shear will support a tornado threat this evening
into the overnight with rotating cells that remain semi-discrete,
mainly across the eastern half of South Carolina into southern North
Carolina.

...Desert Southwest...
Tropical Storm Rachel, in conjunction with a mid-level shortwave
trough, will move toward the northern part of Baja California this
evening. Ahead of the system, moisture advection will continue
across parts of the Desert Southwest. Over southwestern Arizona,
surface dewpoints will continue to increase into the mid to upper
60s F, aiding destabilization this evening with MLCAPE increasing to
around 1000 J/kg. In addition, large-scale ascent will increase as
the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the region. In
response to the lift, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop
and move northeastward across southern and western Arizona this
evening. The mid-level jet will also create moderate to strong
deep-layer shear sufficient for isolated severe storms. A few severe
wind gusts will be possible.

..Broyles.. 10/11/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 05:53:24 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 110553
SWODY1
SPC AC 110550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and a
tornado or two will be possible today across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be
possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.

...Mid-Atlantic...
The remnants of Isaias will move through the southern Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic today. At the surface, a moist airmass will advect northeastward across North Carolina and eastern Virginia, where
dewpoints will increase into the 70s F. MLCAPE is forecast to peak
in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range over parts of the Mid-Atlantic by
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Carolina
Piedmont this morning and move northeastward into the lower
elevations of eastern North Carolina and south-central Virginia
early this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings from near Raleigh
northward to west of Richmond around midday have long curved
hodographs, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 225
m2/s2 range. This will support a tornado threat with supercells that
remain discrete. The tornado threat should persist into the evening
as the stronger storms move toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.

...Desert Southwest/Four Corners...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward today from the
Desert Southwest into the Four Corners region. At the surface, an
axis of low-level moisture will be in place from southwestern
Arizona extending northeastward toward the Four Corners. Weak
instability will develop along this southwest-to-northeast corridor
as surface temperature warm. Large-scale ascent associated with the
shortwave trough will support scattered thunderstorm development
this afternoon. Forecast soundings from western Arizona into
southeast Utah this afternoon have strong unidirectional winds from
the south-southwest in the low to mid-levels. The resultant strong
deep-layer shear could support a marginal wind-damage threat.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/11/2026

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 12:45:54 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 111245
SWODY1
SPC AC 111243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and a
tornado or two will be possible today across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be
possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.

...Mid-Atlantic...
The remnants of Isaias are now a vertically stacked cyclone centered
over Middle TN this morning. Warm sector associated with this
cyclone is displaced east of the primary cyclone center, and is
delineated well by the 64 deg F isodrosotherm. This isodrosotherm
currently extends from the southern Delmarva Peninsula southwestward
to a triple point low over the TN/NC border and then southward
across central/south-central GA and the far eastern FL Panhandle.
Moderate low to mid-level southerly/southwesterly flow currently
extends throughout the eastern periphery of the cyclone over the
warm sector.

Primary core of the cyclone is forecast to progress northeastward
across the central Appalachians this afternoon/evening before
continuing northeastward across VA to the Mid-Atlantic coast
overnight into early tomorrow. The occluded surface and triple point
lows associated with this system will shift northeastward as well.
This progression will result in northward advection of the warm
sector into more of eastern NC and southeast VA while the cold front
pushes eastward/northeastward. Abundant cloud cover will limit
heating and lapse rates will remain poor, but abundant low-level
moisture will still support moderate buoyancy across the warm
sector. This buoyancy will support thunderstorm development along
and ahead of the cold front as it moves northeastward across the
region. Moderate low to mid-level southerly/southwesterly flow will
persist across the warm sector, supporting the potential for rotation/organization with any deep and persistent updrafts. As a
result, isolated damaging gusts and a few brief tornadoes are
possible across the region. The best overlap between buoyancy and
shear is expected between 18Z and 00Z from north-central/northeast
NC into central/southeast VA.

...Desert Southwest/Eastern Great Basin...
Remnants of tropical cyclone Rachel are currently centered in the
CA/NV/AZ border vicinity, at the base of a broad upper trough
covering much of the western CONUS. These remnants are forecast to
progress northeastward today, moving quickly through the Great Basin
and ending the period over central/eastern MT. At the same time,
another cyclone will shift southward across the Pacific Northwest.
Dynamic response to this evolution will support a belt of strong
mid-level southwesterly flow from southern CA/AZ through WY into the
northern High Plains. Low to mid-level moisture associated with the
remnants of Rachel will spread northeastward as well.

Persistent large-scale forcing for ascent and the aforementioned
moisture will support scattered thunderstorms. Strong low to
mid-level southwesterly flow will result in occasionally intense
bowing segments capable of strong gusts, particularly in any areas
that can experience filtered daytime heating. A low-probability
tornado risk will also exist from this morning into the early
afternoon across near the surface low over the CA/NV/AZ border
intersection vicinity. Here, moist low-level southerly will elongate
hodographs (as shown in current ESX VAD), resulting in a kinematic
environment supportive of tornadoes. Limited buoyancy should keep
any tornado threat isolated and brief.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/11/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 16:31:56 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 111631
SWODY1
SPC AC 111629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across parts of North Carolina and
Virginia through the late afternoon. Additional storms with
isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the Desert
Southwest and Four Corners region.

...NC/VA vicinity...
Midday water-vapor imagery shows a dry slot/vorticity lobe wrapping
through the base of the larger-scale remnants/cyclone associated
with Isaias and progressing eastward across the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. Surface analysis places a triple point over
northwest NC with a maritime warm frontal zone draped east-northeast
into the DelMarVa. Despite considerable cloud cover according to visible-satellite imagery, surface temperatures are gradually
warming into the mid to upper 70s across eastern NC and far
southeast VA. This modest heating has led to the development of
around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NC and weaker buoyancy
farther north near Richmond, VA (a few hundred J/kg). The forced
band of broken thunderstorm activity moving east across NC will
likely be the primary feature for severe weather across this general
region through the late afternoon. A few supercells embedded within
the north-south oriented band will potentially pose a risk for a few
additional tornadoes and perhaps an isolated risk for strong to
locally severe gusts (see MCD 2361 for short-term details). Have
added a level-1 intensity highlight for the area of greatest
tornadic supercell potential through mid afternoon. By late this
afternoon, it is possible (albeit uncertain) that a narrow corridor
adequately destabilizes ahead of triple point as it develops
northeastward into central VA. If sufficient destabilization occurs
and sustained/robust storms also develop, a localized tornado/wind
threat could ensue prior to sunset.

...Desert Southwest/Eastern Great Basin...
Remnants of tropical cyclone Rachel are currently centered in the
CA/NV/AZ border vicinity, at the base of a broad upper trough
covering much of the western CONUS. These remnants are forecast to
progress northeastward today, moving quickly through the Great Basin
and ending the period over central/eastern MT. Persistent
large-scale forcing for ascent and the aforementioned moisture will
support scattered thunderstorms. Strong low to mid-level
southwesterly flow will result in occasionally intense bowing
segments capable of strong gusts, particularly in any areas
that can experience filtered daytime heating.

..Smith/Barnes.. 10/11/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 20:01:58 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 112001
SWODY1
SPC AC 112000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of tornadoes remain possible across parts eastern North
Carolina and southeastern Virginia into early evening. Additional
storms with isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the
Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.

...20Z Update...
Severe probabilities were trimmed behind the primary
north/south-oriented broken band of thunderstorms spreading eastward
across eastern NC and southeastern VA. While thunderstorms have been
weakening while approaching the coast, a moist air mass and
clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (around 250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km
SRH per VWP data) will still conditionally support a couple of
tornadoes within Tornado Watch #681 into early evening.

Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes
were made.

..Weinman.. 10/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026/

...NC/VA vicinity...
Midday water-vapor imagery shows a dry slot/vorticity lobe wrapping
through the base of the larger-scale remnants/cyclone associated
with Isaias and progressing eastward across the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. Surface analysis places a triple point over
northwest NC with a maritime warm frontal zone draped east-northeast
into the DelMarVa. Despite considerable cloud cover according to visible-satellite imagery, surface temperatures are gradually
warming into the mid to upper 70s across eastern NC and far
southeast VA. This modest heating has led to the development of
around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NC and weaker buoyancy
farther north near Richmond, VA (a few hundred J/kg). The forced
band of broken thunderstorm activity moving east across NC will
likely be the primary feature for severe weather across this general
region through the late afternoon. A few supercells embedded within
the north-south oriented band will potentially pose a risk for a few
additional tornadoes and perhaps an isolated risk for strong to
locally severe gusts (see MCD 2361 for short-term details). Have
added a level-1 intensity highlight for the area of greatest
tornadic supercell potential through mid afternoon. By late this
afternoon, it is possible (albeit uncertain) that a narrow corridor
adequately destabilizes ahead of triple point as it develops
northeastward into central VA. If sufficient destabilization occurs
and sustained/robust storms also develop, a localized tornado/wind
threat could ensue prior to sunset.

...Desert Southwest/Eastern Great Basin...
Remnants of tropical cyclone Rachel are currently centered in the
CA/NV/AZ border vicinity, at the base of a broad upper trough
covering much of the western CONUS. These remnants are forecast to
progress northeastward today, moving quickly through the Great Basin
and ending the period over central/eastern MT. Persistent
large-scale forcing for ascent and the aforementioned moisture will
support scattered thunderstorms. Strong low to mid-level
southwesterly flow will result in occasionally intense bowing
segments capable of strong gusts, particularly in any areas
that can experience filtered daytime heating.

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 00:49:38 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 120049
SWODY1
SPC AC 120047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with and isolated tornado threat will be possible this
evening near the Mid-Atlantic coast. Isolated severe gusts will also
be possible across parts of the Desert Southwest.

...Mid Atlantic...
Water vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level shortwave trough
over the southern Appalachians. The eastern periphery of the system
is located from the Mid-Atlantic extending offshore into the western
Atlantic. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is located
from far eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia, along which
the RAP has MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Isolated
thunderstorm development will continue to be possible near the
instability axis this evening. Strong low-level shear associated
with a speed max along the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue an
isolated tornado threat for a few more hours the evening.

...Desert Southwest...
Southwesterly mid-level flow is in place over the Desert Southwest
this evening. At the surface, a moist axis is located across western
Arizona, where dewpoints are in the 50s and 60s F. Along and near
the moist axis, the RAP shows weak instability in place with SBCAPE
around 500 J/kg. Over the top of this airmass, strong flow is
present in the mid-levels according to RAP forecast soundings, which
is creating 0-6 km shear around 50 knots over much western and
central Arizona into southern Utah. This may be enough for an
isolated potential for severe wind gusts this evening.

..Broyles.. 10/12/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 05:38:06 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 120537
SWODY1
SPC AC 120535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is forecast across the U.S. today and tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will remain over the
eastern two-thirds of the nation today, as a trough moves through
the western states. At the surface, a large area of high pressure
will be located from the Gulf Coast into the central Appalachians. A
cold front will move southeastward through the north-central U.S.,
as a surface low moves into the upper Mississippi Valley.
Thunderstorm development will be possible today near and ahead of
the surface low across the Great Lakes, and further west within the post-frontal airmass in the northern Plains. Scattered storms will
also form within southwest flow aloft, from parts of the
Intermountain West into the central Rockies. Storms will also be
possible in the southern High Plains, across parts of the Texas
Coastal Plain and in south Florida. No severe threat is forecast
across the continental U.S. today and tonight.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/12/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 12:48:42 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 121248
SWODY1
SPC AC 121246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is forecast across the U.S. today and tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a deep upper trough covering
much of the CONUS west of the Rockies. Several shortwave troughs are
embedded within this troughing, including one moving out of the
central High Plains towards NE and SD, one progressing through the
base of the trough towards southern CA, and one moving through
southern NV toward UT. Extensive upper ridging is in place
downstream across much of the central CONUS with another shortwave
trough moving off the East Coast.

Recent surface analysis reveals expansive ridging centered over AL
that extends through the OH Valley. This ridging is flanked by a
pair of surface lows, one just off the Delmarva Peninsula and the
other over central NE. The central NE low sits along a wavy frontal
zone that extends northeastward through another low in southeast MN
through western Upper MI and northwest Ontario.

Strong low-level moisture advection is anticipated from the Mid
MO/MS Valley into the Upper Midwest as the NE/SD shortwave trough,
and attending NE surface low, progress northeastward today. Warm
mid-level temperatures will prevent convection within the warm
sector, but elevated showers and thunderstorms are possible north of
the surface low, beginning across the eastern Dakotas during the
afternoon and continuing eastward across the Upper Midwest and into
the Upper Great Lakes. Small hail is possible with the strongest
storms.

Moist and moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft will persist
throughout eastern periphery the western CONUS troughing, aiding in
the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms as the
southern NV shortwave trough continues northeastward today. Weak
buoyancy should temper overall storm strength, although a strong
gusts or two is possible with the deepest storms.

Low-level confluence could support afternoon thunderstorms within
the moist return flow from the TX coast into central TX. Weak shear
should moderate storm severity. Isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are possible along the weak lee troughing across the
southern High Plains as well. Limited buoyancy should temper updraft
strength and persistence.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/12/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 16:27:34 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 121627
SWODY1
SPC AC 121625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe weather is not forecast across the contiguous
United States through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale trough
over the West. A lead shortwave disturbance over the Dakotas will
move east into the Upper Great Lakes by late tonight. Strengthening
low-level warm-air advection immediately ahead of a surface low will
favor scattered thunderstorms developing this evening over parts of
the Upper Great Lakes and moving into northern MI overnight.
Although cloud-bearing shear will be strong, limited elevated
buoyancy will likely limit updraft strength and a corresponding
small hail risk with the strongest storms.

Moist and moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft will persist
throughout the eastern periphery of the western CONUS troughing,
aiding in the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
Weak buoyancy should temper overall storm strength, although a
strong gust or two is possible.

..Smith/Guyer.. 10/12/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 19:50:06 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 121949
SWODY1
SPC AC 121948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe weather is not forecast across the contiguous
United States through tonight.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this
update. In central KS, a couple of strong storms capable of
producing strong wind gusts and small hail will be possible
along/immediately ahead of a cold front early tonight, given an
elongated hodograph (around 40 kt of effective shear) and weak
buoyancy. However, the expected late timing of convective initiation
and dry air/subsidence aloft should tend to limit updraft strength
and the severe risk.

..Weinman.. 10/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale trough
over the West. A lead shortwave disturbance over the Dakotas will
move east into the Upper Great Lakes by late tonight. Strengthening
low-level warm-air advection immediately ahead of a surface low will
favor scattered thunderstorms developing this evening over parts of
the Upper Great Lakes and moving into northern MI overnight.
Although cloud-bearing shear will be strong, limited elevated
buoyancy will likely limit updraft strength and a corresponding
small hail risk with the strongest storms.

Moist and moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft will persist
throughout the eastern periphery of the western CONUS troughing,
aiding in the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
Weak buoyancy should temper overall storm strength, although a
strong gust or two is possible.

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 13 00:46:48 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 130046
SWODY1
SPC AC 130044

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe weather is not expected tonight.

...Central KS...
A few strong storms cannot be ruled out across parts of central KS
this evening, as a cold front moves into the region. While
deep-layer flow/shear is generally favorable for organized
convection, buoyancy is rather weak, with MUCAPE of around 500 J/kg.
Given the expected near/after dusk timing of storm development,
convection will likely remain slightly elevated. Meanwhile, a
relatively low tropopause will limit the depth of convection, which
well tend to limit potential for storms to reach severe intensity.
However, small hail may occur with the strongest storms, and locally
gusty winds will be possible due to the remnant well-mixed boundary
layer immediately above the increasing nocturnal near-surface
stability.

...Elsewhere...
Elevated convection is expected to increase across the lower Great
Lakes later tonight, where isolated small to near-severe hail could
occur. Weak elevated convection with occasional lightning flashes
will be possible from the Southwest/Great Basin into parts of the
Dakotas, and also across parts of eastern NM and west TX.

..Dean.. 10/13/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 13 05:25:28 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 130524
SWODY1
SPC AC 130522

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
KS/NORTHWEST MO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, damaging
winds, and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the
central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this
afternoon into tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from
southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New
York.

...Central/southern Plains into the Midwest...
A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly
east-southeastward across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest
through the period. Downstream of this low and attendant trough, a
lee surface cyclone is forecast to meander across the south-central
High Plains. A weak surface trough will extend southwest of the lee
cyclone across the southern High Plains, while a nearly stationary
front extends east-northeast across KS into northern MO through late
afternoon.

Despite generally modest midlevel lapse rates, seasonably strong
heating and rich low-level moisture will support moderate to locally
strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) this afternoon,
along/east of the surface trough across the southern Plains and
along/south of the front across KS/MO. Scattered storm development
is expected near KS/MO front by late afternoon, with at least
isolated storms possible farther south into the southern High
Plains.

Moderate deep-layer shear downstream of the deep mid/upper-level
low/trough will support organized storms, with initial supercell
development possible. Strong to severe gusts and large hail are
expected to be the primary hazards, though some increase in
low-level shear/SRH by early evening could result in a tornado or
two near the front and surface trough. Modest upscale growth will be
possible later tonight across parts of KS/MO and western/southern
IL, though longevity of the severe threat is uncertain due to
increasing nocturnal stabilization with time.

...Parts of western/central NY...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move quickly from the
Great Lakes towards the Northeast later today. A surface low will
move from northern MI into Ontario. Early-day clouds/precipitation
will help to reinforce a nearly stationary front extending southeast
of the low into parts of western/central NY. Relatively rich
low-level moisture (with 60s F dewpoints) will be in place along and
southwest of this front by afternoon, though modest heating and
lapse rates will tend to limit destabilization.

Increasing deep-layer flow and some low-level hodograph curvature
will provide a favorable wind profile for organized convection,
though potential for warm-sector development remains uncertain, due
to the modest instability. Some threat for localized wind damage and
possibly a brief tornado could accompany any sustained surface-based
storms, though confidence in the magnitude and coverage of the
threat remains low at this time.

..Dean/Chalmers.. 10/13/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 13 12:54:52 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 131254
SWODY1
SPC AC 131252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHWEST MISSOURI/KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, damaging
winds, and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the
central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this
afternoon into tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from
southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New
York.

...Southern High Plains through the south-central Plains into the
Midwest...
Early morning satellite imagery shows a belt of moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest across the central
Plains, situated between a slow-moving upper low over the western
Great Basin and expansive upper ridging centered over the upper
TX/western LA coast. Based on recent mesoanalysis, the strongest
portion of this southwesterly flow currently extends from the
southern AZ/NM border into south-central CO, colocated with a
low-amplitude shortwave trough. Recent surface analysis places a
pair of lows just downstream of this stronger flow aloft, one over
southeast CO and the other over central KS. A cold front connects
these two lows and continues northeastward from the central KS low
to another low over northern Lake Michigan. Airmass south of this
low is very moist, with upper 60s reaching into south-central KS and
low 70s dewpoints reaching up through central OK.

Expectation is for the embedded shortwave trough to progress quickly northeastward today, reaching the central High Plains by late this
afternoon before continuing northeastward through the central Plains
this evening. As it does, the frontal zone across KS will sharpen
and initially southwesterly surface winds will back, becoming more
southerly (perhaps even slightly southeasterly) by the late
afternoon. Strong heating is anticipated along and south of the
front as well, with afternoon temperatures in the low 90s. Any
boundary-layer mixing will be offset by continued low-level moisture
advection, with afternoon dewpoints likely remaining in the mid to
upper 60s along the front in KS and east of the dryline in the
eastern TX Panhandle. These conditions are expected to result in
airmass destabilization around 21Z. Lapse rates will be not be
overly steep, but warm and moist low-levels will still result in
moderate to strong buoyancy.

Increasing convergence along the front and dryline within this
destabilized and buoyant airmass is forecast to result in convective initiation. The strongest mid-level flow will be displaced north and
west of the frontal zone, but mid-level flow along and south of the
front should still be strong enough to support moderate deep-layer
vertical shear and the potential for an initially supercellular
storm mode. Strong to severe gusts and large hail are expected to be
the primary hazards. A few gusts from 65 to 75 mph are possible.
Tornado potential will remain low, but ample low-level moisture
coupled with an increase in low-level shear/SRH by early evening
could result in a tornado or two near the front. Modest upscale
growth will be possible later tonight across parts of KS/MO and western/southern IL. However, the severe threat should become more
isolated with time given increasing nocturnal stabilization and
widespread storm interactions.

...Parts of western/central NY...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will continue to move
quickly eastward through eastern Ontario through the Northeast
today. An attendant surface low will eastward just ahead of the
parent shortwave. Increasing low-level moisture and afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s will promote modest buoyancy, although clouds/precipitation and relatively warm low to mid-level
temperatures result in some uncertainty regarding airmass
destabilization.

Increasing deep-layer westerly flow (particularly around 850 mb)
amid low-level southwesterlies will result in notably curved
low-level hodographs. As a result, any sustained surface-based
storms could organize, supporting a threat for localized wind damage
and possibly a brief tornado. Modest buoyancy is expected to
limit the overall magnitude and coverage of the severe potential.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/13/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 13 16:31:20 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 131631
SWODY1
SPC AC 131629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHWEST MISSOURI/KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, severe gusts,
and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the central and
southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this afternoon into
tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest
Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.

...Southern High Plains into KS and the mid MS Valley...
Regional 12 UTC raob data over the southern Great Plains showed a
very moist boundary layer (15-17 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing
ratios at Norman and Lamont, OK and Midland and Fort Worth, TX)
streaming northward. Late morning surface mesoanalysis places a
front extending southwestward from a surface low over northern Lower
MI through the mid MS/lower MO Valleys and into southeast CO. The
frontal zone is forecast to gradually shift south, primarily after
dark.

Ample heating via clear skies through mid afternoon will contribute
to moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) developing along and
south of the aforementioned front, westward to a triple point, and
southward into west TX east of a dryline. The erosion of convective
inhibition will likely lead to initial widely scattered storm
development over central KS per recent CAM data by mid-late
afternoon. Strong mid to high-level flow will support supercells
early in the convective life cycle with some of the stronger
thunderstorms. Storm coverage is forecast to increase through the
early evening from northwest OK and KS into the lower MO Valley.

Will maintain previous categorical risk with minimal change.
However, have enlarged the level-1 wind intensity and introduced a
level-1 hail intensity to account for organized storm modes and a
risk for hail 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter from the eastern TX
Panhandle into central KS. The overall tornado risk is uncertain
and will be limited to a certain extent by modest low-level shear
despite the supercell mode and a very moist boundary layer. A few
small clusters will likely evolve during the evening with a mix of supercellular and multicells capable of severe gusts 60-80 mph. The
severe threat should become more isolated with time given increasing
nocturnal stabilization and widespread storm interactions.

...Parts of western/central NY...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will continue to move
quickly eastward through eastern Ontario through the Northeast
today. An attendant surface low will eastward just ahead of the
parent shortwave. Increasing low-level moisture and afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s will promote modest buoyancy, although clouds/precipitation and relatively warm low to mid-level
temperatures result in some uncertainty regarding airmass
destabilization.

Increasing deep-layer westerly flow (particularly around 850 mb)
amid low-level southwesterlies will result in notably curved
low-level hodographs. As a result, any sustained surface-based
storms could organize, supporting a threat for localized wind damage
and possibly a tornado. Modest buoyancy is expected to
limit the overall magnitude and coverage of the severe potential.

..Smith/Hart.. 10/13/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 13 19:52:48 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 131952
SWODY1
SPC AC 131950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHWEST MISSOURI/KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, severe gusts,
and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the central and
southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this afternoon into
tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest
Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.

...20z Update...
A minor expansion was made to the Level 1/Marginal Risk area across
portions of far northeast Oklahoma, far southeast Kansas, and
southwest Missouri. The latest guidance indicates potential for a
few damaging wind gusts to occur if storms can remain organized late
into the overnight and propagate into this region. The low-level jet
is forecast to develop this evening across much of Oklahoma and
remain present through the overnight, offering support to sustain
convection.

Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track.
See the discussion below for more details.

..Karstens/Guyer.. 10/13/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026/

...Southern High Plains into KS and the mid MS Valley...
Regional 12 UTC raob data over the southern Great Plains showed a
very moist boundary layer (15-17 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing
ratios at Norman and Lamont, OK and Midland and Fort Worth, TX)
streaming northward. Late morning surface mesoanalysis places a
front extending southwestward from a surface low over northern Lower
MI through the mid MS/lower MO Valleys and into southeast CO. The
frontal zone is forecast to gradually shift south, primarily after
dark.

Ample heating via clear skies through mid afternoon will contribute
to moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) developing along and
south of the aforementioned front, westward to a triple point, and
southward into west TX east of a dryline. The erosion of convective
inhibition will likely lead to initial widely scattered storm
development over central KS per recent CAM data by mid-late
afternoon. Strong mid to high-level flow will support supercells
early in the convective life cycle with some of the stronger
thunderstorms. Storm coverage is forecast to increase through the
early evening from northwest OK and KS into the lower MO Valley.

Will maintain previous categorical risk with minimal change.
However, have enlarged the level-1 wind intensity and introduced a
level-1 hail intensity to account for organized storm modes and a
risk for hail 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter from the eastern TX
Panhandle into central KS. The overall tornado risk is uncertain
and will be limited to a certain extent by modest low-level shear
despite the supercell mode and a very moist boundary layer. A few
small clusters will likely evolve during the evening with a mix of supercellular and multicells capable of severe gusts 60-80 mph. The
severe threat should become more isolated with time given increasing
nocturnal stabilization and widespread storm interactions.

...Parts of western/central NY...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will continue to move
quickly eastward through eastern Ontario through the Northeast
today. An attendant surface low will eastward just ahead of the
parent shortwave. Increasing low-level moisture and afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s will promote modest buoyancy, although clouds/precipitation and relatively warm low to mid-level
temperatures result in some uncertainty regarding airmass
destabilization.

Increasing deep-layer westerly flow (particularly around 850 mb)
amid low-level southwesterlies will result in notably curved
low-level hodographs. As a result, any sustained surface-based
storms could organize, supporting a threat for localized wind damage
and possibly a tornado. Modest buoyancy is expected to
limit the overall magnitude and coverage of the severe potential.

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 01:02:16 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 140102
SWODY1
SPC AC 140100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
expected this evening into tonight over parts of the central and
southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated large hail
may also occur in the southern Great Lakes.

...Southern and Central Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows an anticyclonic flow pattern in
place over the eastern two-thirds of the nation, with southwesterly
mid-level flow from the Desert Southwest into the southern and
central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located from near
the Oklahoma Panhandle northeastward into north-central Missouri. A
1007 mb low is analyzed over the northeastern Texas Panhandle.
Low-convergence is maximized along the front over the central
Plains, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. The convergence
axis extends southward into the Low Rolling Plains of northwest
Texas, where a cluster of storms is also ongoing. Ahead of the
convergence axis, surface dewpoints are in upper 60s and lower 70s F
over much of the southern and central Plains, which is contributing
to moderate instability, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE mostly in
the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range.

In addition to the instability,the WSR-88D VWP at Wichita, KS has
0-6 km shear near 35 knots with 40 to 45 knots of southwesterly flow
in the mid-levels. Some directional shear is present in the boundary
layer. This environment will support a threat for supercells with
cells that remain discrete. Supercells will be capable of large
hail, severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Severe wind
gusts are expected to become the primary severe threat as the
primary mode becomes linear, later this evening.

Further south into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas, the latest
WSR-88D VWP at Frederick has about 35 knots of 0-6 km shear. The RAP
also has steep mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range.
This should support supercells with a potential for large hail and
severe wind gusts.

...Southern Great Lakes...
A minor shortwave trough appears to be moving into the western Great
Lakes early this evening. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms have
developed over far southern Wisconsin. The storms will track
east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes this evening into
the overnight. The RAP currently shows an axis of instability
analyzed from western Illinois northeastward into the southwestern
Great Lakes. Along and near this axis, RAP forecast soundings late
this evening have MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg with effective shear near
40 knots. This may be enough for an isolated large hail threat, with
the stronger elevated storms.

..Broyles.. 10/14/2026

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From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 05:52:50 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 140552
SWODY1
SPC AC 140550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and potentially a tornado
threat will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of
the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat will also be
possible from parts of the Ozarks into the central Appalachians.

...Southern Plains...
At mid-levels, southwesterly flow will be in place across much of
the south-central U.S. today, as a large-scale trough and low move
through the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southward this morning across northern Oklahoma and the
Texas Panhandle. Numerous thunderstorms will be likely this morning
near the front. The effective boundary is expected to be further
south, which will shift the effective destabilization further south
as well. By early afternoon, an axis of moderate instability is
forecast to be located from west Texas northeastward into
southwestern and south-central Oklahoma, where MLCAPE will likely
range from 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Areas that destabilize significantly
will have potential for severe storms.

RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis by mid to late
afternoon have supercell wind profiles, with gradually veering winds
with height in the low-levels and about 50 knots of southwesterly
flow in the mid-levels. This will support supercell development with
storms that form in the stronger instability and remain discrete.
Supercells will be capable of severe wind gusts, hail and perhaps a
tornado or two. During the evening, a transition to linear mode is
expected, but a threat for embedded supercells will continue. The
more intense line segments could produce severe wind gusts,
potentially above 70 mph.

...Ozarks/Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
An anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the eastern half
of the nation today. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward into the Ozarks and Ohio Valley today. To the south of the
boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will
likely result in pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. In
spite of limited large-scale ascent, increasing low-level
convergence near the boundary will result in scattered convective
initiation. Deep-layer shear near the front may be strong enough for
a few isolated severe storms in areas that destabilize the most. The
primary threat will be damaging wind gusts.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/14/2026

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From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 12:41:28 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 141241
SWODY1
SPC AC 141239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and potentially a tornado
threat will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of
the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat will also be
possible from parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic .

...Southern Plains/Southern High Plains...
Early morning surface observations and regional radar imagery show a
wavy outflow boundary from southern IL across southeast MO, northern
AR, and eastern/central/southwest OK into the TX South Plains.
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing north of this outflow, but
predominantly south of the primary cold front that extends from the
northern TX Panhandle east-northeastward across northwest and
north-central OK and then northeastward through southeast KS,
central MO, and northern IL. Southerly low to mid-level flow is
expected to persist throughout the day, and the associated warm-air
advection across the outflow boundary will likely result in showers
and thunderstorms continuing from the TX Panhandle eastward across
western and central OK for most of the day. Southward progression on
the outflow will slow this morning, with the boundary eventually
returning northward as a warm front later this evening. The cold
front is forecast to remain stationary for much of the period.

When and where the outflow boundary ends its forward progression is
uncertain, which introduces uncertainty regarding where the best
severe potential will exist today. The portion of the outflow
boundary across the southern High Plains appears to already have
lost much of its character, so there is relatively higher confidence
in the location of the severe potential across that region.
Expectation here is for daytime heating to destabilize the airmass
east of the stalled outflow where temperatures could reach the mid
80s amid mid to upper 60s dewpoints. Moderate buoyancy and effective
shear from 40 to 50 kt will support initial supercell structures
capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Upscale growth into one or
more linear bowing segments is possible with time. Primary threat
will transition to damaging wind gusts as this occurs.

A more complex and uncertain scenario exists farther north from
northwest TX into east-central/southeast OK. Isolated strong to
severe storms are possible along and south of the outflow boundary.
The strongest buoyancy is expected across south-central/southeast OK
where mid 70s dewpoints will remain in place. As previously
mentioned, the outflow is expected to retreat back northward as an
effective warm front later this afternoon and evening. Additional
strong to severe storms are possible as this occurs as well as later
this evening as eastward-progressing linear clusters move into this
moist and unstable airmass. A strengthening low-level jet will
support a low-probability tornado risk with any more cellular warm
sector development this evening, particularly across southwest into south-central OK where vertically veering profiles are anticipated.

...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms across southeast MO and southern
IL are forecast to continue eastward today. Daytime heating combined
with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s is expected
to contribute to pockets of moderate instability with MLCAPE
approaching 1000-1250 J/kg by mid-late afternoon. The ongoing storms
may intensify, with an increase in coverage possible as well.
Steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with strengthening
west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to 35-40 kt of
deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated severe storms
capable of damaging wind gusts into evening.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/14/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 18:15:32 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 141632
SWODY1
SPC AC 141630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and some tornado threat are
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern
Plains. A marginal wind-damage risk is possible across parts of the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

...Southern Plains/Southern High Plains...
Extensive showers and thunderstorms continue at midday across the
majority of Oklahoma to the Ozarks, and on a more scattered basis
across west/northwest Texas. This is within a very moist air mass
(with prevalent 2+ inch Precipitable Water values except the High
Plains) to the south of a synoptic front, with convective outflows
continuing to effectively augment the front including recent/fresh
outflows across southern Oklahoma/western north Texas.

An upper-level trough centered near the Four Corners areas will
overspread the central Rockies, with height falls and strengthening
winds aloft overspreading the central Plains and southern High
Plains. This will probably aid in some air mass recovery and modification/northward flux of the outflow-related effective
boundary, with prevalent insolation at midday across the Texas Low
Rolling Plains and far southern Oklahoma to portions of central
Arkansas (and points south).

Thunderstorm redevelopment/intensification is expected along the
effective boundary, particularly across southwest Oklahoma and the
Texas Low Rolling Plains and Texas South Plains. Moderately strong
flow aloft (40-50 kt effective shear) will support some initial
supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Low-level
winds will generally relax today, but should again strengthen
toward/after sunset. Some tornado threat will exist, but upscale
quasi-linear growth and bowing segments will likely be more
prevalent this evening, with damaging gusts becoming the primary
risk.

...Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic States...
A semi-organized band of thunderstorms exists at midday near the
Ohio River along the Indiana/Ohio border vicinity. Relatively
cloud-free skies exist ahead of these storms through much of
Kentucky/southern Ohio toward the Appalachians. Heating combined
with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s is expected
to contribute to pockets of instability with MLCAPE approaching
1000-1250 J/kg by mid/late afternoon. As storms intensify
regionally, steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with
strengthening west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to
35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated severe
storms capable of damaging wind gusts through early evening.

..Guyer/Jirak.. 10/14/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 19:54:04 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 141953
SWODY1
SPC AC 141951

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and some tornado threat are
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern
Plains. A marginal wind-damage risk is possible across parts of the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

...20z Update...
Scattered storms, including a few supercells, have developed across
parts of northwest Texas along an east-west oriented outflow
boundary. These storms are expected to increase in
coverage/intensity over the next few hours, spreading into the
Slight Risk area of southwest Oklahoma. See MCD #2373 for additional
details.

Additional storm development is now commencing farther south across
West Texas, where clear skies have allowed several hours of
destabilization to occur, yielding 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Effective
shear of 40-45 kt will promote storm organization, with
supercellular modes initially that should transition to linear modes
with time. Damaging wind gusts are expected with this activity as it
spreads northeast into northwest Texas and southwest/central
Oklahoma through the overnight. Forecast soundings indicate
potential for a few QLCS tornadoes if sufficient destabilization
north of the aforementioned outflow boundary can occur and be
maintained.

Elsewhere, a few damaging wind gusts remain possible with the
ongoing convection moving across parts of northern Kentucky and
southern Ohio. See MCD #2374 for additional details. Probabilities
have been reduced in the wake of this activity.

..Karstens/Bentley.. 10/14/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026/

...Southern Plains/Southern High Plains...
Extensive showers and thunderstorms continue at midday across the
majority of Oklahoma to the Ozarks, and on a more scattered basis
across west/northwest Texas. This is within a very moist air mass
(with prevalent 2+ inch Precipitable Water values except the High
Plains) to the south of a synoptic front, with convective outflows
continuing to effectively augment the front including recent/fresh
outflows across southern Oklahoma/western north Texas.

An upper-level trough centered near the Four Corners areas will
overspread the central Rockies, with height falls and strengthening
winds aloft overspreading the central Plains and southern High
Plains. This will probably aid in some air mass recovery and modification/northward flux of the outflow-related effective
boundary, with prevalent insolation at midday across the Texas Low
Rolling Plains and far southern Oklahoma to portions of central
Arkansas (and points south).

Thunderstorm redevelopment/intensification is expected along the
effective boundary, particularly across southwest Oklahoma and the
Texas Low Rolling Plains and Texas South Plains. Moderately strong
flow aloft (40-50 kt effective shear) will support some initial
supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Low-level
winds will generally relax today, but should again strengthen
toward/after sunset. Some tornado threat will exist, but upscale
quasi-linear growth and bowing segments will likely be more
prevalent this evening, with damaging gusts becoming the primary
risk.

...Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic States...
A semi-organized band of thunderstorms exists at midday near the
Ohio River along the Indiana/Ohio border vicinity. Relatively
cloud-free skies exist ahead of these storms through much of
Kentucky/southern Ohio toward the Appalachians. Heating combined
with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s is expected
to contribute to pockets of instability with MLCAPE approaching
1000-1250 J/kg by mid/late afternoon. As storms intensify
regionally, steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with
strengthening west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to
35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated severe
storms capable of damaging wind gusts through early evening.

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 00:49:22 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 150049
SWODY1
SPC AC 150047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening
across parts of the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat
will also be possible in parts of the Ozarks, and from the southern
Ohio Valley into the northern Tennessee Valley.

...Southern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is
currently moving through west Texas within southwesterly flow aloft.
At the surface, a cold front is located from northwest Texas
extending east-northeastward into southern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in northwest
Texas, and this activity will likely continue to move
east-northeastward along the boundary this evening. Although
moderate instability is analyzed over parts of north Texas,
instability is weaker near the boundary, along the potential track
of the severe line segment approaching Wichita Falls, Texas. In
spite of this, RAP forecast soundings early this evening have 40 to
50 knots of southwesterly flow in the mid-levels, which will support
organized thunderstorm development. Although supercells will be
possible early this evening, it appears that the predominant mode
will be linear. The more intense line segments could produce
damaging wind gusts. The threat may persist into the late evening as
the line moves through southern and eastern Oklahoma. A marginal
threat may continue into the overnight period across part of the
Ozarks.

...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
On water vapor imagery, it appears that multiple weak shortwave
perturbations are moving through a ridge in the mid Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys. At the surface, a cold front is located from western
Tennessee extending northeastward into the central Appalachians.
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front with the greatest
convective coverage in southern Kentucky. These storms are located
near an axis of instability. Along this axis, the RAP has MLCAPE in
the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, and surface dewpoints are mostly in the
70s F. Although deep-layer shear is somewhat limited, the moist and
unstable environment may be enough for isolated damaging wind gusts
over the next hour or so.

..Broyles.. 10/15/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 05:34:24 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 150534
SWODY1
SPC AC 150532

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado
or two are possible today across parts of the mid Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys. Additional storms with isolated severe wind gusts will
be possible in parts of the southern Plains.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward today into the Northeast,
as a large-scale trough moves into the Great Plains. Ahead of the
trough, a surface low will track northeastward from the mid
Mississippi Valley into the southwestern Great Lakes. Ahead of the
surface low, a warm front will move northward through the Ohio
Valley. To the south of the warm front, surface dewpoints will be in
the upper 60s and lower 70s F. This will enable an axis of
instability to develop by afternoon, with MLCAPE likely peaking
around 1000 J/kg. Ahead of the trough, a mid-level jet will
overspread the warm sector during the afternoon. This will create
moderate deep-layer shear over much of the Ohio Valley, which will
support isolated supercell development. In addition, RAP forecast
soundings in the Ohio Valley by mid afternoon have 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range suggesting
that a tornado or two will be possible. Short line segments capable
of isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible. Poor lapse
rates will be the main limiting factor for a greater severe threat
coverage and magnitude.

...Southern Plains...
An upper-level trough will move into the Great Plains today, as
mid-level flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough. At the
surface, a cold front will advance southward across the southern
Plains, with the front located from west-central Texas into
southeast Oklahoma by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be
weak, low-level convergence along and near the front will result in thunderstorm development. Storms will move east-southeastward across
a narrow corridor of instability, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak
in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. As low-level lapse rates steepen in
the afternoon, isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with
multicells. However, deep-layer shear will be marginal for organized convection, and poor lapse rates will be a major limiting factor.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/15/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 12:54:08 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 151253
SWODY1
SPC AC 151252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado
or two are possible today across parts of the mid Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
Shortwave trough currently centered over the central High Plains is
forecast to progress quickly northeastward, becoming absorbed within
a deep upper trough progressing out of the Canadian Prairies towards
the Upper Midwest. This evolution will yield a deep upper trough
from Ontario through the Upper Midwest and into the Mid MO Valley by
early tomorrow morning. Intense mid-level flow will accompany this
trough, with 90 to 100 kt at 500 mb possible within its eastern
periphery from central IL across Lower MI.

Surface low associated with the central High Plains shortwave trough
is currently centered over southeast KS. This low is forecast to
progress northeastward in tandem with its parent shortwave while
gradually deepening. Moist low-levels will accompany this low, with
upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints advecting northward across much of the
lower/upper OH Valley this afternoon and evening. This increasing
low-level moisture will support modest buoyancy, and the potential
for reintensification of ongoing storms and/or new development
across the warm sector. The best overlap of strong shear (supported
by strengthening mid-level flow) and buoyancy is expected near (or
just south of) the warm front, which will likely extend from
southern IL through far southern OH during the afternoon, and from
central IL southwestward through central OH by 00Z this evening.

A very moist airmass (and associated buoyancy) and moderate low to
mid-level flow will support the potential for bowing segments
capable of damaging gusts. Long, curved low-level hodographs support
the potential for a few brief tornadoes as well. A second area of low-probability tornado potential may materialize near the surface
low as it moves across northern IL. However, widespread clouds and
limited diurnal heating should temper buoyancy, and the current
expectation is that the limited buoyancy should keep updraft depth
too shallow and updraft persistence too short to merit introducing
any severe probabilities.

...West/Central TX...
An outflow-augmented cold front currently extends from a surface low
just west of MAF north-northeastward through just east of LBB
into the eastern TX Panhandle. This boundary is forecast to make
slow southeastward progress today. A very moist and modestly buoyant
airmass ahead of this cold front will support continued showers and thunderstorms. However, boundary-parallel deep-layer flow will
likely trend these storms towards a more anafrontal character.
Mid-level lapse rates also will remain poor. A water-loaded gust or
two is possible, but overall severe potential is expected to remain
limited.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/15/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 16:45:20 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 151644
SWODY1
SPC AC 151643

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and a tornado or two are
possible today across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Extreme/record-caliber seasonal moisture content exists over the
region with warm-sector prevalent 2+ inch Precipitable Water values
and surface dewpoints in excess of 70F. A surface wave over the
middle part of Missouri late this morning should gradually/modestly
deepen as it progresses east-northeastward near a northward-shifting
warm front, although the front/warm sector are a bit muddled by
ongoing convection across southern portions of Missouri and
Illinois.

Current split flow over the Great Plains will quickly resolve, with
a central Plains shortwave trough/speed max phasing with a
broader-scale upper trough over the Upper Midwest through tonight.
The net result will be a strengthening of deep-layer winds
along/north of the warm sector that will shift poleward, although to
what exact degree/spatial extent is uncertain given some of the
ongoing convection.

At least some scattering of warm-sector cloud cover, diurnal heating
and the increasing moisture content with northward extent will allow
for modest cool season destabilization, with SBCAPE potentially
exceeding 1000 J/kg across the lower Wabash Valley and
southern/downstate portions of Illinois and Indiana. This should
allow for re-development/intensification of storms this afternoon,
although the exact magnitude of today's severe risk is still a bit
uncertain and contingent on surface heating/destabilization. But
this scenario could include a few supercells, with the possibility
of a semi-focused severe/some tornado risk near the warm front,
which may be augmented by some of the prior convection, and ahead of
the surface low. Supercells aside, some semi-organized clusters
capable of wind damage should evolve within the high-moisture
content environment and 40+ kt effective shear. Overall storm
intensity is likely to wane within a couple hours of sunset,
generally by late evening.

...North/West Texas...
An outflow-augmented cold front will continue to spread
southeastward. The tendency for post-frontal convection should
remain the dominant scenario with boundary-parallel deep-layer flow contributing to a more anafrontal character. Gradual diurnal heating
could support some intensification of storms along the leading edge
of the composite boundary this afternoon. As such, some stronger
wind gusts are plausible, but this scenario and related potential
for organized severe storms is currently expected to remain limited.

..Guyer/Marsh.. 10/15/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 19:59:02 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 151958
SWODY1
SPC AC 151957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and a tornado or two are
possible today across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys.

...20z Update...
A loosely organized cluster of storms has developed over southeast
Illinois, positioned on the northern periphery of modest instability
(MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg) that has developed where skies have remained
at least partially clear. Although persistent cloud cover has thus
far limited destabilization of the downstream environment, low-level
warm/moist air advection combined with some breaks in cloud cover
may promote further destabilization. Should this occur, ample
deep-layer shear of 40-45 kts should help to maintain convective
organization, with a few damaging wind gusts possible. Therefore, a
Slight Risk has been maintained, but trimmed to areas in/downstream
of the ongoing convective activity.

In addition, a minor expansion of the wind/tornado probabilities was
made, extending into portions of far southern Illinois and far
southwest Indiana where visible satellite indicates some cumulus
development amid the aforementioned area of instability. A few
isolated damaging wind gusts would be possible if isolated cells are
able to develop in this region.

Elsewhere, a few damaging wind gusts are possible this
afternoon/evening across portions of northwest Texas. See MCD #2378
for additional details.

..Karstens.. 10/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026/

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Extreme/record-caliber seasonal moisture content exists over the
region with warm-sector prevalent 2+ inch Precipitable Water values
and surface dewpoints in excess of 70F. A surface wave over the
middle part of Missouri late this morning should gradually/modestly
deepen as it progresses east-northeastward near a northward-shifting
warm front, although the front/warm sector are a bit muddled by
ongoing convection across southern portions of Missouri and
Illinois.

Current split flow over the Great Plains will quickly resolve, with
a central Plains shortwave trough/speed max phasing with a
broader-scale upper trough over the Upper Midwest through tonight.
The net result will be a strengthening of deep-layer winds
along/north of the warm sector that will shift poleward, although to
what exact degree/spatial extent is uncertain given some of the
ongoing convection.

At least some scattering of warm-sector cloud cover, diurnal heating
and the increasing moisture content with northward extent will allow
for modest cool season destabilization, with SBCAPE potentially
exceeding 1000 J/kg across the lower Wabash Valley and
southern/downstate portions of Illinois and Indiana. This should
allow for re-development/intensification of storms this afternoon,
although the exact magnitude of today's severe risk is still a bit
uncertain and contingent on surface heating/destabilization. But
this scenario could include a few supercells, with the possibility
of a semi-focused severe/some tornado risk near the warm front,
which may be augmented by some of the prior convection, and ahead of
the surface low. Supercells aside, some semi-organized clusters
capable of wind damage should evolve within the high-moisture
content environment and 40+ kt effective shear. Overall storm
intensity is likely to wane within a couple hours of sunset,
generally by late evening.

...North/West Texas...
An outflow-augmented cold front will continue to spread
southeastward. The tendency for post-frontal convection should
remain the dominant scenario with boundary-parallel deep-layer flow contributing to a more anafrontal character. Gradual diurnal heating
could support some intensification of storms along the leading edge
of the composite boundary this afternoon. As such, some stronger
wind gusts are plausible, but this scenario and related potential
for organized severe storms is currently expected to remain limited.

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 16 00:51:42 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 160051
SWODY1
SPC AC 160049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN IN INTO OH...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of localized strong/damaging gusts and
possibly a brief tornado remain possible this evening across parts
of southern Indiana into Ohio.

...Parts of IN/OH...
A small storm cluster is ongoing this evening across southern IN,
near the intersection of a surface trough and warm front. As a
vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough and deepening surface low
move across the Great Lakes this evening, the warm front will
continue to move northward. Modest buoyancy within the persistent
low-level warm-advection regime will allow for maintenance of
convection through parts of OH into the Lower Great Lakes, though
surface-based buoyancy will become increasingly scant with time and northeastward extent.

In the short term, locally damaging wind will be possible with the
strongest storms. Favorable low-level shear/SRH may also support a brief-tornado threat, though this threat should eventually diminish
as convection tends to become increasingly elevated. Some threat for
localized strong/damaging gusts could spread across OH through late
evening, before increasing low-level stability results in a
diminishing threat.

..Dean.. 10/16/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 16 05:59:06 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 160558
SWODY1
SPC AC 160556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with wind-damage and localized brief-tornado potential
are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New
England, mainly this afternoon and early evening.

...Mid-Atlantic into southern New England...
A deep, positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough is forecast to further
amplify as it spreads over the eastern CONUS today. A surface low
initially near the lower Great Lakes will move quickly eastward
toward northern New England by evening. A trailing cold front will
sweep through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from this afternoon
into tonight.

In the wake of early-day clouds and precipitation, seasonably rich
low-level moisture and modest diurnal heating will result in
sufficient destabilization for storm development along the front.
Very weak lapse rates above 500 mb will constrain MLCAPE magnitudes
to the 500-1000 J/kg range, and result in rather low-topped
convection. However, in areas where temperatures can rise to
near/above 70 F, relatively robust buoyancy near/below 500 mb
(characterized by lifted indices in the -4 to -6 C range) will
develop prior to the frontal passage. This buoyancy will be
sufficient for development of occasionally organized storm
structures, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer flow/shear.
35-45 kt of flow in the 1-2 km AGL layer will support potential for strong/damaging gusts with any sufficiently robust convection.

Generally front-parallel flow may result in a primarily linear mode
as convective coverage increases, though 40+ kt of effective shear
will support potential for embedded low-topped supercells. A
localized wind-damage threat may develop early this afternoon from
WV/western PA into southern NY, with initial frontal development.
The wind-damage threat is expected to increase through the afternoon
as storms spread eastward into a somewhat warmer and more unstable
environment across eastern PA, NJ, and vicinity. Rather strong
low-level shear will also support some brief-tornado potential with
QLCS circulations and/or embedded supercell structures.

Some wind-damage potential could spread into southern New England by
this evening, though marine-influenced low-level stability should
eventually constrain the eastward extent of the threat.

..Dean/Chalmers.. 10/16/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 16 12:47:20 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 161243
SWODY1
SPC AC 161242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado or two are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into
southern New England, mainly this afternoon and early evening.

...Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England...
Recent water vapor satellite imagery shows a prominent and
positively tilted upper trough extending from eastern Canada into
the Upper Midwest. This upper trough will advance eastward while
amplifying over the eastern CONUS through the period, with enhanced west-southwesterly low/mid-level flow expected to overspread much of
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A related surface low over southern
Ontario will develop east-northeastward today into southern Quebec,
as a trailing cold front sweeps east-southeastward across the
eastern states. Low-level moisture is forecast to gradually increase
ahead of the front through the afternoon, and MLCAPE should
gradually increase into the 500-1000 J/kg range with filtered
daytime heating. But, lapse rates through low/mid levels are likely
to remain quite poor (reference BUF/PIT/IAD 12Z observed soundings).
This should temper overall updraft strength to some extent, and
low-topped convection which develops along/near the front may
produce little lighting, especially with northward extent into
southern New England.

Even with the potential thermodynamic limitations, favorable
deep-layer shear will support some updraft organization. Given the
strength of the low/mid-level flow, isolated strong/gusty winds may
occur this morning with ongoing convection along/near the front
across western PA/NY, even though instability remains very limited.
Latest short-term guidance continues to suggest that a low-topped
convective line will further develop across central into eastern PA
and southern NY by 17-21Z. Convectively augmented wind gusts capable
of producing scattered damaging winds will likely be the main severe
risk as this activity spreads quickly eastward across the northern
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England through early evening. The
greatest coverage of damaging winds should focus across parts of
eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where locally greater
instability is forecast.

The potential for line-embedded mesocirculations is less clear.
While some low-level shear will be present, the enhanced low-level
flow is forecast to gradually veer to west-southwesterly through the afternoon/evening, which may reduce effective SRH somewhat. Still,
at least an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado
should spread towards the coast before convection weakens this
evening due to marine layer influences and nocturnal cooling.
Overall, the ongoing forecast aligns reasonably well with recent
short-term guidance/observational trends, and therefore only minor
changes have been made to severe probabilities with this update.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/16/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 16 16:31:36 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 161631
SWODY1
SPC AC 161629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado or two are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into
southern New England, mainly this afternoon and early evening.

...Mid-Atlantic States/southern New England...
A large-scale positive-tilt upper-level trough will approach the
region, with a modest buoyancy/high-vertical shear scenario expected
to be favorable for low-topped/fast-moving storms capable of wind
damage near/ahead of a cold front. Such severe potential is expected
to maximize across the Delmarva and eastern Pennsylvania into New
Jersey and southern New York.

Stratus remains very prevalent across much of the region late this
morning, although visible satellite imagery reflects a rather quick
erosion south to north across southern Virginia, and this same trend
should continue for east of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians spine
especially across Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania and perhaps
nearby parts of New Jersey/Delmarva.

A related surface low over southern Ontario will develop
east-northeastward today into southern Quebec, as a trailing cold
front sweeps east-southeastward across the eastern states. Low-level
moisture is forecast to gradually increase ahead of the front
through the afternoon, and MLCAPE should gradually increase into the
500-1000 J/kg range, particularly where more cloud breaks occur.
But, lapse rates through low/mid levels are likely to remain quite
poor (reference BUF/PIT/IAD 12Z observed soundings). This should
temper overall updraft strength to some extent, and low-topped
convection which develops along/near the front may produce little
lightning, especially with northward extent into southern New
England.

Even with the potential thermodynamic limitations, favorable
deep-layer shear will support some updraft organization. Given the
strength of the low/mid-level flow, isolated strong/gusty winds may
occur. A low-topped convective line will further develop across
central into eastern Pennsylvania and southern New York this
afternoon. Convectively augmented wind gusts capable of producing
scattered damaging winds will likely be the main severe risk as this
activity spreads quickly eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic
and southern New England through early evening. A few line-embedded mesocirculations could also occur, which could yield a brief
tornado.

..Guyer/Karstens.. 10/16/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 16 19:58:48 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 161958
SWODY1
SPC AC 161956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado or two are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into
southern New England this afternoon and early evening.

...20Z Update...
Only two changes are made to the outlook for this issuance. The
first change is to trim the western edge of the slight risk and
associated wind and tornado probabilities, to account for the
eastward progression of a cold front. The second change is to trim
the western edge of the thunder line from much of the Ohio Valley
and central Appalachians Mountains.

..Broyles.. 10/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026/

...Mid-Atlantic States/southern New England...
A large-scale positive-tilt upper-level trough will approach the
region, with a modest buoyancy/high-vertical shear scenario expected
to be favorable for low-topped/fast-moving storms capable of wind
damage near/ahead of a cold front. Such severe potential is expected
to maximize across the Delmarva and eastern Pennsylvania into New
Jersey and southern New York.

Stratus remains very prevalent across much of the region late this
morning, although visible satellite imagery reflects a rather quick
erosion south to north across southern Virginia, and this same trend
should continue for east of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians spine
especially across Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania and perhaps
nearby parts of New Jersey/Delmarva.

A related surface low over southern Ontario will develop
east-northeastward today into southern Quebec, as a trailing cold
front sweeps east-southeastward across the eastern states. Low-level
moisture is forecast to gradually increase ahead of the front
through the afternoon, and MLCAPE should gradually increase into the
500-1000 J/kg range, particularly where more cloud breaks occur.
But, lapse rates through low/mid levels are likely to remain quite
poor (reference BUF/PIT/IAD 12Z observed soundings). This should
temper overall updraft strength to some extent, and low-topped
convection which develops along/near the front may produce little
lightning, especially with northward extent into southern New
England.

Even with the potential thermodynamic limitations, favorable
deep-layer shear will support some updraft organization. Given the
strength of the low/mid-level flow, isolated strong/gusty winds may
occur. A low-topped convective line will further develop across
central into eastern Pennsylvania and southern New York this
afternoon. Convectively augmented wind gusts capable of producing
scattered damaging winds will likely be the main severe risk as this
activity spreads quickly eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic
and southern New England through early evening. A few line-embedded mesocirculations could also occur, which could yield a brief
tornado.

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 17 00:52:12 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 170051
SWODY1
SPC AC 170050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low through the remainder of
tonight.

...01Z Update...
Convection associated with a strong cold front has generally
weakened or moved offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England this evening. Sporadic thunderstorm activity could persist
through the remainder of the evening across these areas, though the
generally post-frontal nature of the remaining convection should
limit severe potential. Otherwise, ongoing storms across the FL
Peninsula should generally weaken through the evening, though some
storm potential may persist overnight across the FL Keys and
near-coastal areas.

..Dean.. 10/17/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 17 05:16:44 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 170516
SWODY1
SPC AC 170514

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, much of the CONUS will be too
dry and stable for thunderstorm development today. The front will
continue moving southward along the central/southern FL Peninsula,
where scattered storm development will be possible within a very
moist environment. Poor lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should
limit organized severe potential, though localized strong gusts may
occur. Across the Southwest, sporadic lightning flashes may
accompany weak convection associated with a slow-moving mid/upper
low centered offshore of Baja California.

..Dean/Chalmers.. 10/17/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 17 12:00:22 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 171200
SWODY1
SPC AC 171158

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Highly amplified upper troughing over the eastern CONUS this morning
will move eastward off the Atlantic Coast today, while a closed
mid/upper-level low eventually develops over the NC Outer Banks and
adjacent western Atlantic. An expansive area of surface high
pressure and related dry and/or stable conditions across much of the central/eastern states will greatly limit thunderstorm potential
today, with two exceptions. One area will be across parts of the FL
Peninsula along/south of a cold front, where sufficient instability
may support isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon in a
weak deep-layer shear environment. While gusty winds could occur
with the strongest cores that develop, overall severe potential is
expected to remain low. A second area of isolated thunderstorm
potential will exist across parts of southern AZ, on the northeast
periphery of a weak mid/upper-level low centered over the eastern
Pacific and Baja Peninsula.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/17/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 17 17:25:24 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 171617
SWODY1
SPC AC 171614

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a positive-tilt upper
trough over the East and a closed low near the California/Baja
California border. An extensive area of tranquil conditions
influenced by surface high pressure will prevail across much of the
contiguous U.S. Widely scattered diurnal thunderstorms are possible
across the southern half of the FL Peninsula primarily through
sunset before much of the convective activity is relegated to the FL
Straits and offshore waters tonight. Weak thunderstorms are
possible tonight in association with the upper low over southern AZ.

..Smith/Supinie.. 10/17/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 17 19:42:42 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 171942
SWODY1
SPC AC 171941

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis...
No substantial changes to the outlook. The thunder area has been
trimmed southward in central FL to match movement of a cold front.
To the west, isolated lightning flashes will be possible through
tonight within the midlevel moisture plume to the east of the weak
closed low just off the northern Baja coast. The northern extent of
any lightning threat is a bit uncertain given marginal buoyancy depth/magnitude, but will maintain previous outlook area.

..Thompson.. 10/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a positive-tilt upper
trough over the East and a closed low near the California/Baja
California border. An extensive area of tranquil conditions
influenced by surface high pressure will prevail across much of the
contiguous U.S. Widely scattered diurnal thunderstorms are possible
across the southern half of the FL Peninsula primarily through
sunset before much of the convective activity is relegated to the FL
Straits and offshore waters tonight. Weak thunderstorms are
possible tonight in association with the upper low over southern AZ.

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 18 00:56:48 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 180056
SWODY1
SPC AC 180054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through
tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
At upper-levels, a trough and associated low will move eastward into
the western Atlantic tonight as a ridge dominates over the central
U.S. At the surface, dry and cool air associated with a large area
of high pressure will be in place over much of the nation. Moisture
and instability will be confined to south Florida, where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible this evening. Isolated storms may
also form over parts of southern Arizona this evening. No severe
threat is expected over the continental U.S. through daybreak on
Sunday.

..Broyles.. 10/18/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 18 05:53:46 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 180553
SWODY1
SPC AC 180551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern, and an associated surface
high pressure system will be in place today over the central and
eastern U.S. Dry and cool conditions will be in place over much of
the nation, and thunderstorms will be unlikely. The exceptions will
be over south Florida and in the Desert Southwest where scattered
thunderstorms will be possible from today into tonight. No severe
threat is expected across the continental U.S. through daybreak on
Monday.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/18/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 18 12:32:30 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 181232
SWODY1
SPC AC 181230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Even with east-northeasterly low-level flow persisting to the north
of a remnant cold front, diurnal heating of a moist airmass will
support sufficient instability for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms across parts of south FL and the Keys today.
Occasional lightning flashes may also occur with convection across
parts of the Southwest ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level shortwave
trough. Weak shear across south FL and limited moisture/instability
over AZ/NM will hinder the potential for severe thunderstorms across
both regions. Dry and/or stable conditions will preclude
thunderstorms for the remainder of the CONUS through the period.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/18/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 18 16:02:04 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 181232
SWODY1
SPC AC 181230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Even with east-northeasterly low-level flow persisting to the north
of a remnant cold front, diurnal heating of a moist airmass will
support sufficient instability for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms across parts of south FL and the Keys today.
Occasional lightning flashes may also occur with convection across
parts of the Southwest ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level shortwave
trough. Weak shear across south FL and limited moisture/instability
over AZ/NM will hinder the potential for severe thunderstorms across
both regions. Dry and/or stable conditions will preclude
thunderstorms for the remainder of the CONUS through the period.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/18/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 18 16:16:28 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 181616
SWODY1
SPC AC 181614

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Tranquil conditions will exist across much of the contiguous United
States through tonight. Extensive surface high pressure influencing
much of the central and eastern U.S. will favor offshore flow into
the northern Gulf of America and feature a seasonably dry/stable
airmass. A few weak thunderstorms are possible over south FL and
the Keys to the north of a surface front undergoing frontolysis
across the southern Gulf and FL Straits. Farther west, an upper
trough migrating northeast across the Four Corners will be
associated with isolated showers/thunderstorms across parts of the
Southwest.

..Smith/Supinie.. 10/18/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 18 19:43:02 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 181942
SWODY1
SPC AC 181940

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20z Updates...

No changes are necessary for the Day 1 update. See previous
discussion below.

..Leitman.. 10/18/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026/

...Synopsis...
Tranquil conditions will exist across much of the contiguous United
States through tonight. Extensive surface high pressure influencing
much of the central and eastern U.S. will favor offshore flow into
the northern Gulf of America and feature a seasonably dry/stable
airmass. A few weak thunderstorms are possible over south FL and
the Keys to the north of a surface front undergoing frontolysis
across the southern Gulf and FL Straits. Farther west, an upper
trough migrating northeast across the Four Corners will be
associated with isolated showers/thunderstorms across parts of the
Southwest.

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 19 00:46:24 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 190046
SWODY1
SPC AC 190044

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through
tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the southern
Appalachians tonight, as southwesterly flow at mid-levels remains in
place across much of the western and central U.S. At the surface, a
large area of high pressure will remain entrenched from the Gulf
Coast states to the Northeast. As a result, dry and cool conditions
will remain over much of the continental U.S. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible over south Florida and in parts of the Desert
Southwest, but no severe threat is forecast this evening through
tonight.

..Broyles.. 10/19/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 19 05:30:28 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 190530
SWODY1
SPC AC 190528

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or
tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a low will be nearly stationary off the Mid-Atlantic
coast as a ridge remains over the south-central U.S. Southwesterly
flow aloft will be in place over the western third of the nation. At
the surface, a large area of high pressure associated with cool and
dry air will be entrenched across much of the eastern half of the
U.S. On the southern periphery of the high pressure system, isolated thunderstorms will be possible within a moist airmass across south
Florida. Additional storms will be possible in parts of the Desert
Southwest. No severe threat is forecast today or tonight across the
continental U.S.

..Broyles/Karstens.. 10/19/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 19 12:02:04 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 191201
SWODY1
SPC AC 191200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may produce isolated marginally severe hail and gusty
winds this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast
Arizona and southwest New Mexico.

...Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...
Surface observations indicate that low-level moisture has slowly
increased early this morning across southeast AZ, with dewpoints
generally ranging in the mid to upper 50s at lower elevations. A
35-45 kt southwesterly mid-level jet associated with a weak
shortwave trough will persist across the Southwest today. Modest
large-scale ascent attendant to this feature coupled with
terrain-driven influences should aid thunderstorm initiation across
southeast AZ by 17-21Z as convective temperatures are reached with
filtered diurnal heating.

Recent RAP runs suggest that the boundary layer will not become
overly well mixed across this region through the afternoon, which
should allow for around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE (locally stronger)
to develop. This instability coupled with cool mid-level
temperatures and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear appear sufficient for
some updraft organization with the scattered to numerous
thunderstorms that form. Isolated, marginally severe hail and gusty
outflow winds may occur with the stronger cells that spread
east-northeastward across southeast AZ into southwest NM through the
afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to quickly
weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/19/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 19 14:16:00 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 191201
SWODY1
SPC AC 191200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may produce isolated marginally severe hail and gusty
winds this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast
Arizona and southwest New Mexico.

...Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...
Surface observations indicate that low-level moisture has slowly
increased early this morning across southeast AZ, with dewpoints
generally ranging in the mid to upper 50s at lower elevations. A
35-45 kt southwesterly mid-level jet associated with a weak
shortwave trough will persist across the Southwest today. Modest
large-scale ascent attendant to this feature coupled with
terrain-driven influences should aid thunderstorm initiation across
southeast AZ by 17-21Z as convective temperatures are reached with
filtered diurnal heating.

Recent RAP runs suggest that the boundary layer will not become
overly well mixed across this region through the afternoon, which
should allow for around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE (locally stronger)
to develop. This instability coupled with cool mid-level
temperatures and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear appear sufficient for
some updraft organization with the scattered to numerous
thunderstorms that form. Isolated, marginally severe hail and gusty
outflow winds may occur with the stronger cells that spread
east-northeastward across southeast AZ into southwest NM through the
afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to quickly
weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/19/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 19 16:40:18 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 191631
SWODY1
SPC AC 191629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may produce isolated marginally severe hail and gusty
winds this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast
Arizona and southwest New Mexico.

...Southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico...
Generally cloud-free skies are noted late this morning as heating
has steadily occurred in the presence of a relatively moist airmass
with prevalent 50s F surface dewpoints in lower elevations.
Satellite imagery/derived-winds continue to portray a 35-45 kt
southwesterly mid-level jet associated with a weak shortwave trough
will continue northeastward today. Modest large-scale ascent related
to this feature coupled with terrain-driven influences should aid
thunderstorm initiation across southeast Arizona this afternoon as
convective temperatures are reached.

The boundary layer will not become overly well mixed across this
region through the afternoon, which should allow for around 500-1000
J/kg of MLCAPE to develop. This instability coupled with cool
mid-level temperatures and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear appear
sufficient for some updraft organization with the scattered to
numerous thunderstorms that form. Isolated, marginally severe hail
and gusty outflow winds may occur with the stronger cells that
develop and spread east-northeastward across southeast Arizona into
southwest New Mexico through the afternoon and early evening. This
activity is expected to quickly weaken by mid-evening with the loss
of daytime heating.

..Guyer/Mosier.. 10/19/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 19 20:00:10 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 191959
SWODY1
SPC AC 191958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may produce isolated marginally severe hail and gusty
winds this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast
Arizona and southwest New Mexico.

...20z Update...
No Outlook changes are warranted, with incipient thunderstorm
development now occurring across southeast Arizona as of 20z. For
additional short-term forecast details, see Mesoscale Discussion
2383.

..Guyer.. 10/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026/

...Southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico...
Generally cloud-free skies are noted late this morning as heating
has steadily occurred in the presence of a relatively moist airmass
with prevalent 50s F surface dewpoints in lower elevations.
Satellite imagery/derived-winds continue to portray a 35-45 kt
southwesterly mid-level jet associated with a weak shortwave trough
will continue northeastward today. Modest large-scale ascent related
to this feature coupled with terrain-driven influences should aid
thunderstorm initiation across southeast Arizona this afternoon as
convective temperatures are reached.

The boundary layer will not become overly well mixed across this
region through the afternoon, which should allow for around 500-1000
J/kg of MLCAPE to develop. This instability coupled with cool
mid-level temperatures and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear appear
sufficient for some updraft organization with the scattered to
numerous thunderstorms that form. Isolated, marginally severe hail
and gusty outflow winds may occur with the stronger cells that
develop and spread east-northeastward across southeast Arizona into
southwest New Mexico through the afternoon and early evening. This
activity is expected to quickly weaken by mid-evening with the loss
of daytime heating.

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 20 00:54:36 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 200054
SWODY1
SPC AC 200052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible
this evening across parts of southeast Arizona and southwest New
Mexico.

...Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a minor shortwave trough moving
through the Desert Southwest. An associated mid-level jet is
analyzed by the RAP over northwestern Mexico and southeastern
Arizona. Lift associated with the jet is providing support for
scattered thunderstorm development this evening. Near the exit of
the jet, a small cluster of storms is ongoing from far southeast
Arizona into southwest New Mexico along the eastern edge of a
corridor of instability. Within this corridor, the RAP has SBCAPE
from 1000 to 1500 J/kg. The RAP also has about 40 knots of 0-6 km
shear. This may be enough for an isolated threat for severe wind
gusts and hail for another hour or two this evening.

..Broyles.. 10/20/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 20 05:50:08 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 200549
SWODY1
SPC AC 200548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. today and
tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place across the
south-central U.S. today, as divergent flow aloft remains over the
Southwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be
entrenched over the eastern half of the nation. An axis of low-level
moisture will be in place over the Desert Southwest, where scattered thunderstorms will be possible today as instability increases. The
chance for storms in the Desert Southwest will continue into the
evening and overnight period. No severe threat is expected across
the continental U.S. through daybreak Wednesday.

..Broyles/Leitman.. 10/20/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 20 12:32:10 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 201231
SWODY1
SPC AC 201230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...Great Basin into the Southwest and Southern/Central Plains...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms ongoing this morning across parts
of southern/central NM may develop downstream today over portions of
the southern/central Plains as modest southwesterly mid-level flow
persists. As a closed mid/upper-level low digs southward off the
West Coast, convection capable of producing occasional lightning is
also forecast to develop this afternoon through tonight across parts
of the Great Basin and Southwest. Low-level moisture is forecast to
further increase through the period over the lower CO River Valley
and southern/central AZ.

While a stronger thunderstorm or two may develop across southeast AZ
this afternoon with daytime heating aided by orographic effects,
better large-scale ascent associated with a strong southwesterly mid/upper-level jet will likely be delayed until late tonight/early
Wednesday morning. Greater coverage of thunderstorms may be realized
towards the end of the period across central/northern AZ, but in a
weak thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail/wind threat
across the Southwest currently appears lower and even more isolated
than yesterday, so have not introduced any severe probabilities with
this update.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/20/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 20 16:27:22 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 201627
SWODY1
SPC AC 201625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Southwest...
Beneath a belt of 30-40-kt southwesterly flow aloft, isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the
higher terrain across parts of southeastern AZ into western NM this
afternoon. Diurnal heating amid middle/upper 50s dewpoints will
yield weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with around 35 kt
of effective shear, may promote transient storm organization. While
an isolated instance of marginally severe hail (around 1 inch in
diameter) and/or locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, the
overall severe threat is expected to remain isolated/limited today.

An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected late in the period
across central/northern AZ as forcing for ascent strengthens within
the exit region of a robust midlevel jet. While deep-layer shear
will be increasing, most of this activity should remain elevated
amid weak buoyancy -- limiting the overall severe risk.

..Weinman.. 10/20/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 20 19:56:56 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 201956
SWODY1
SPC AC 201955

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...20z Update...
Isolated thunderstorm development is ongoing across portions of
southeastern AZ and southwestern NM where latest objective analysis
suggests MLCAPE has increased to around 500 J/kg amid diurnal
heating and mid-50s F surface dewpoints. While transient storm
organization and a low-probability risk for marginally severe hail
and/or locally strong gusts remain possible, the existing outlook
has been maintained owing to the expectation for any severe risk to
remain limited in magnitude and coverage. See the discussion below
for additional information.

..Chalmers.. 10/20/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026/

...Southwest...
Beneath a belt of 30-40-kt southwesterly flow aloft, isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the
higher terrain across parts of southeastern AZ into western NM this
afternoon. Diurnal heating amid middle/upper 50s dewpoints will
yield weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with around 35 kt
of effective shear, may promote transient storm organization. While
an isolated instance of marginally severe hail (around 1 inch in
diameter) and/or locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, the
overall severe threat is expected to remain isolated/limited today.

An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected late in the period
across central/northern AZ as forcing for ascent strengthens within
the exit region of a robust midlevel jet. While deep-layer shear
will be increasing, most of this activity should remain elevated
amid weak buoyancy -- limiting the overall severe risk.

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 00:54:02 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 210053
SWODY1
SPC AC 210051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not forecast across the U.S. through tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level low will move toward the coast of California this
evening as south-southwesterly flow aloft remains in place over the
Desert Southwest. Ahead of this system, instability will be
sufficient for thunderstorm development this evening into tonight
across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West.
Thunderstorms will also be possible tonight along and near an axis
of low-level moisture over the southern and central Great Plains. No
severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S. through
daybreak Wednesday.

..Broyles.. 10/21/2026

$$
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From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 05:53:28 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 210553
SWODY1
SPC AC 210551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with a potential for large hail, severe wind
gusts and a couple tornadoes are expected today along the Mogollon
Rim across parts of Arizona. Marginally severe wind gusts and an
isolated tornado threat will also be possible along the southern and
central California Coast.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level low will approach the California Coast today, as
southwesterly divergent flow aloft remains in place over much of the
Southwest. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture will advect
northward into the Desert Southwest today. An axis with surface
dewpoints in the 60s F will set up to the southwest of the Mogollon
Rim across southern, central and western Arizona. By afternoon,
MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range along and
near the moist axis. Over the top of the moist and unstable airmass,
strong mid-level southwesterly flow will be in place. Moderate
instability and strong deep-layer shear will support a substantial
severe threat with storms that develop along the Mogollon Rim from
this afternoon into the evening, near the northern edge of the
stronger instability.

As the upper-level system approaches, a 50 to 70 knot mid-level jet
will overspread the Desert Southwest today. RAP forecast soundings
within the exit region of the jet over north-central Arizona in the
mid to late afternoon have gradually veering winds with height and
50 to 60 knots of 0-6 km shear. In addition, steep mid-level lapse
rates and long hodographs are evident which will result in a
potential for supercells with large hail. The strongest cells could
produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. Forecast
soundings also have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 175 to 250
m2/s2 range late this afternoon along parts of the Mogollon Rim
suggesting that the stronger supercells will be capable of
tornadoes. The severe threat is expected to persist from mid
afternoon into the evening, with a potential for two rounds of
severe storms impacting parts of north-central Arizona.

...Coast of Southern and Central California...
A large upper-level low pressure system will move toward the
California Coast today. The left exit region of a mid-level jet will
approach the southern and central California Coast. A wave of
precipitation associated with this feature will move to the southern
and central California Coast this afternoon. Instability along the
coast will be sufficient for thunderstorm development. RAP forecast
soundings along the coast this afternoon have strong deep-layer
shear, which will support the development of low-topped supercells.
Some model forecasts have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200
m2/s2 near the coast suggesting that an isolated tornado threat will
be possible. Any cells that rotate and move onshore could also be
associated with isolated severe wind gusts as well.

..Broyles/Leitman.. 10/21/2026

$$
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From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 12:32:28 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 211232
SWODY1
SPC AC 211230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, a few
tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected today and tonight across
parts of Arizona and vicinity. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
tornado may also occur along the central/southern California Coast.

...Southwest...
Ongoing thunderstorms across central/northern AZ early this morning
are being aided by large-scale ascent associated with a strong
southwesterly mid/upper-level jet. This activity should continue to
pose a threat for mainly isolated severe hail in the short term,
with 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear aiding updraft organization
and supercell potential in an otherwise weakly unstable environment
(MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg at the moment). Current expectations
are for these thunderstorms to continue advancing northward into an
even less unstable environment, but regenerative convection may
persist for much of the morning as additional cells move over the
Mogollon Rim.

In the wake of this morning convection, an already unseasonably
moist low-level airmass present across southern/central AZ is
forecast to slowly spread northward across the lower CO River Valley
and Mogollon Rim vicinity through the afternoon. Even with
widespread cloudiness, filtered daytime heating will support gradual
airmass destabilization and the development of up to 1000-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE across this region (locally stronger in central AZ), as
convective inhibition becomes minimal by 18-20Z. Additional
thunderstorms will likely develop across central/northern AZ in this
time frame, as persistent forcing for ascent attendant to the
mid/upper-level southwesterly jet remains over the Southwest.

Strong deep-layer shear (40-55+ kt) will easily support supercells,
with an associated threat for large hail. Greater instability is
forecast with southward/westward extent in central AZ and southern
NV, but lower thunderstorm coverage may exist in these areas. Still,
a conditional risk for 2+ inch diameter hail remains apparent with
splitting supercells given the rather favorable overlap of moderate
instability and elongated/nearly straight hodographs at mid/upper
levels. Occasional severe/damaging winds may also occur, but the
tendency for convection to remain mostly discrete may limit
clustering potential to some extent.

The tornado threat with these supercells remains somewhat uncertain,
as temperatures will remain fairly cool across northern AZ today.
Even so, the risk for a few tornadoes may focus across parts of northwest/north-central AZ this afternoon and early evening, where
greater low-level shear is forecast to reside amid generally
east-southeasterly low-level winds. It should also be noted that
multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms appear likely
today into tonight. Primary changes with this update were to extend
the Slight Risk westward across northwest AZ/southeast NV/southwest
UT mainly for large hail potential with supercells this
afternoon/evening, and to expand the Marginal Risk in southern NV
and western NM.

...Coastal Central/Southern California...
A large, closed upper low over the eastern Pacific will approach the
central CA Coast through the period, with a belt of strong southerly
flow at mid levels expected to overspread coastal central/southern
CA through the day. A low-topped line of convection may develop in
response and impact this region during the afternoon/evening.
Instability is forecast to remain minimal/shallow, and this activity
may struggle to reach sufficient height for charge separation and
lightning production. Still, given modestly enhanced flow and
low-level shear, an isolated risk for severe gusts and perhaps a
tornado may exist as this convection moves onshore.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/21/2026

$$
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From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 16:25:00 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 211624
SWODY1
SPC AC 211622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, a few
tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected today and tonight across
parts of Arizona and vicinity. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
tornado may also occur along the central/southern California Coast.

...Southwest...
Recent satellite imagery continues to show deep southwesterly flow
aloft from the central Baja Peninsula through AZ and the Four
Corners region. Warm-air advection associated with this
southwesterly flow aloft has contributed to showers and
thunderstorms across central/northern AZ this morning. The low-level
airmass here is still relatively cool and stable, but strong
vertical shear has still resulted in several supercells. As
mentioned in MCD #2385, additional/isolated thunderstorms are
possible within this low-midlevel moisture plume, potentially aided
by embedded speed maxima moving north-northeastward. Strong vertical
shear will persist as well, suggesting several of these storms could
become supercellular. Large hail will remain the primary risk until
the low levels destabilize.

Deep cyclone off the central/southern CA coast is forecast to
gradually shift east-southeastward today. As it does, southwesterly
flow aloft within its eastern periphery will strengthen, with
deep-layer vertical shear across AZ also strengthening in response.
Low-level moisture will advect northward as well. Even with
widespread cloudiness, this increased moisture combined with
filtered daytime heating will support gradual airmass
destabilization and the development of up to 1000-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE across this region. Strongest buoyancy is anticipated in
south-central AZ.

Forcing for ascent will increase in tandem with airmass
destabilization and the general expectation is for increasing
thunderstorm coverage along and just south/west of the Mogollon Rim
this afternoon. Supercell wind profiles are in place, and large to
isolated very large hail (i.e. 2"+ in diameter) is expected to be
the primary hazard. However, storm motion will take these storms north-northeastward, potentially interacting with the more
southeasterly low-level flow along/near the Rim. Resulting increase
in low-level shear will support an increased tornado potential. This
potential will be maximized from northwest into central AZ this
afternoon and early evening, but low-probability tornado potential
will extend to the southern AZ/NM border. Strong wind gusts are
possible as well, particularly from central into southeast AZ where
relatively stronger heating/mixing is possible.

Tornado threat is expected to diminish gradually with the loss of
daytime heating, but thunderstorms will likely persist throughout
the evening and overnight. Large hail will remain possible with this
overnight activity.

...Coastal Central/Southern California...
The large cyclone over the eastern Pacific will approach the
central CA Coast through the period, with a belt of strong southerly
flow at mid levels expected to overspread coastal central/southern
CA through the day. A low-topped line of convection may develop in
response and impact this region during the afternoon/evening.
Limited instability is forecast, and updrafts may struggle to reach
sufficient depth for charge separation and lightning production.
Even so, given modestly enhanced flow and low-level shear, an
isolated risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may exist as
this convection moves onshore.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 10/21/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 19:55:02 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 211954
SWODY1
SPC AC 211953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, a few
tornadoes, and damaging winds remain possible today and tonight
across parts of Arizona and vicinity. Isolated severe gusts and
perhaps a tornado may also occur along the central/southern
California Coast.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the existing outlook with this update as the
forecast remains generally on track. Convective activity/severe
potential is generally expected to peak this afternoon/early evening
coincident with peak diurnal heating/destabilization. However,
additional rounds of thunderstorm development and the potential for
supercells capable of primarily large hail are likely to continue
into the late evening/overnight hours, especially across
central/northern Arizona, amid a continuing southerly, warm-air
advection regime. See MCDs #2387 and #2388 along with the discussion
below for additional short-term details.

..Chalmers.. 10/21/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026/

...Southwest...
Recent satellite imagery continues to show deep southwesterly flow
aloft from the central Baja Peninsula through AZ and the Four
Corners region. Warm-air advection associated with this
southwesterly flow aloft has contributed to showers and
thunderstorms across central/northern AZ this morning. The low-level
airmass here is still relatively cool and stable, but strong
vertical shear has still resulted in several supercells. As
mentioned in MCD #2385, additional/isolated thunderstorms are
possible within this low-midlevel moisture plume, potentially aided
by embedded speed maxima moving north-northeastward. Strong vertical
shear will persist as well, suggesting several of these storms could
become supercellular. Large hail will remain the primary risk until
the low levels destabilize.

Deep cyclone off the central/southern CA coast is forecast to
gradually shift east-southeastward today. As it does, southwesterly
flow aloft within its eastern periphery will strengthen, with
deep-layer vertical shear across AZ also strengthening in response.
Low-level moisture will advect northward as well. Even with
widespread cloudiness, this increased moisture combined with
filtered daytime heating will support gradual airmass
destabilization and the development of up to 1000-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE across this region. Strongest buoyancy is anticipated in
south-central AZ.

Forcing for ascent will increase in tandem with airmass
destabilization and the general expectation is for increasing
thunderstorm coverage along and just south/west of the Mogollon Rim
this afternoon. Supercell wind profiles are in place, and large to
isolated very large hail (i.e. 2"+ in diameter) is expected to be
the primary hazard. However, storm motion will take these storms north-northeastward, potentially interacting with the more
southeasterly low-level flow along/near the Rim. Resulting increase
in low-level shear will support an increased tornado potential. This
potential will be maximized from northwest into central AZ this
afternoon and early evening, but low-probability tornado potential
will extend to the southern AZ/NM border. Strong wind gusts are
possible as well, particularly from central into southeast AZ where
relatively stronger heating/mixing is possible.

Tornado threat is expected to diminish gradually with the loss of
daytime heating, but thunderstorms will likely persist throughout
the evening and overnight. Large hail will remain possible with this
overnight activity.

...Coastal Central/Southern California...
The large cyclone over the eastern Pacific will approach the
central CA Coast through the period, with a belt of strong southerly
flow at mid levels expected to overspread coastal central/southern
CA through the day. A low-topped line of convection may develop in
response and impact this region during the afternoon/evening.
Limited instability is forecast, and updrafts may struggle to reach
sufficient depth for charge separation and lightning production.
Even so, given modestly enhanced flow and low-level shear, an
isolated risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may exist as
this convection moves onshore.

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 01:02:08 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 220101
SWODY1
SPC AC 220100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, a couple
tornadoes, and damaging winds remain possible tonight across parts
of Arizona and the Southwest. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
tornado may also occur along the central/southern California Coast.

...Southwest...
Evening water-vapor imagery showed a deep upper low off the
southwest CA coast, with a plume of mid-level Pacific moisture
advecting into the Southwest and Four Corners. Several shortwave
perturbations were evident within the broader cyclonic flow, with
the most substantial of these moving northward from the coast of
Baja California. As the upper low drifts eastward, strong mid-level
flow will continue to overspread much of the Southwest through
tonight.

At the surface, continued southerly flow has allowed surface
dewpoints to remain quite moist from the lower deserts toward the
Mogollon Rim. While surface temperatures are cooler, especially with
northward extent where numerous storms have occurred, the very moist
conditions and steepening mid-level lapse rates beneath the
advancing cold core will continue to support weak to moderate
buoyancy (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) through the overnight hours.
Ongoing supercells will likely persist given increasingly strong
southerly wind fields ahead of the upper low. Elongated and mostly
straight hodographs will favor supercells with effective bulk shear
values of 55-65 kt.

Additional storm development, focused mainly across south-central
AZ, remains possible given the upslope flow and the approach of the
shortwave trough from Mexico late tonight into early Thursday. With
supercells expected to be the primary storm mode, large hail will be
the primary risk. However, severe gusts and a couple tornadoes also
remain possible given some low-level hodograph curvature and local
terrain influences. The primary axis of convection should gradually
shift eastward across AZ into southwest NM with the upper low into
early Thursday morning.

..Coastal Central/Southern California...
The prominent cyclone approaching the central CA Coast will continue
eastward moving onshore tonight. Cool mid-level temperatures beneath
the low and modestly moist surface conditions are supporting weak
buoyancy. A low-topped line of convection along the primary cold
front will approach the coast this evening/tonight. While updrafts
may struggle to reach sufficient depth for charge separation and
lightning production given weak buoyancy, enhanced flow and
low-level shear may support an isolated risk for severe gusts and
perhaps a tornado through the overnight hours along the CA coast.

..Lyons.. 10/22/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 06:02:36 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 220602
SWODY1
SPC AC 220600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and
Four Corners area today into tonight with the most intense storms
likely across parts of Arizona and New Mexico. All severe hazards
will be possible.

...Southwest and Four Corners...
The deep upper low initially over the CA coast will move inland and
continue eastward through the day, slowly weakening into an open
wave. A belt of enhanced southerly mid-level flow (70+ kt) along the
eastern periphery of the cyclone will remain in place over the
Southwest and Four Corners. Several embedded shortwave perturbations
will rotate around the cyclone, aiding in continued low-level
southerly flow across eastern AZ and southwest NM. Here, surface
dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F and diurnal heating should
contribute to moderate buoyancy amid deep and strongly veering wind
profiles favorable for severe storms.

One or more bands of convection are likely to be ongoing across
central/eastern AZ early this morning along a weak surface trough.
Cooling mid-level temperatures ahead of the approaching low and
persistent upslope flow along the central and southern portions of
the Mogollon Rim will maintain buoyancy through the diurnal minimum
with reintensification of these storms likely as heating develops
over the lower deserts. Storms will likely be supercellular
initially. Large hail (perhaps to around 2 inches) and a couple of
tornadoes will be the main concern, focused where the largest
buoyancy and strongest low-level shear will overlap in southeastern
AZ. With time, increasingly meridional flow and numerous storm
interactions will favor more linear modes and perhaps a transition
to a greater damaging wind threat by later in the afternoon.

Farther north into the Great Basin, sufficient destabilization for
more than sporadic severe storms is much less certain owing to lower
surface dewpoints and significant cloud cover. Still, model guidance
shows a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE may develop with pockets of
better heating from eastern NV, UT and into southwestern CO. Flow
aloft will remain fairly strong (50-60 kt) helping to elongate mid
and upper-level hodographs. DPVA and upslope trajectories should
support numerous showers/thunderstorms with some potential for
organization into clusters or supercell structures. Damaging wind
gusts are the most likely hazard, though marginally severe hail is
also possible with any of the stronger rotating storms into the
evening.

...Southern California...
As the upper-level low moves overhead during the afternoon, cold
mid-level temperatures (around -20C at 500 mb) and modest surface
heating will support weak destabilization with MLCAPE of 500-750
J/kg. Low-topped convection near the coast may be ongoing early and
continue into the early afternoon before mid-level ascent begins to
decrease. Given the ambient vorticity with the upper-low and local
terrain effects, a brief tornado is possible with the strongest
storms along with isolated wind damage potential. Severe potential
should rapidly diminish as the upper trough moves eastward late
through the afternoon and into the evening.

..Lyons/Jirak.. 10/22/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 12:46:38 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 221246
SWODY1
SPC AC 221244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Southwest today into tonight, with the most intense cells forecast
across parts of Arizona and western New Mexico this afternoon and
evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear
possible.

...Southwest into the Great Basin...
Occasional supercells across portions of east-central AZ have
persisted through much of the early morning hours, aided by
continued large-scale ascent associated with a 50-70 kt
south-southwesterly mid-level jet and low-level upslope flow across
the Mogollon Rim. Strong deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt and generally long/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels noted on the latest
KFSX/KIWA VWPs will support organized updrafts through the remainder
of the morning amid 500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE (greater with southward
extent). See Mesoscale Discussion 2396 for more details on the
short-term threat across AZ.

Current expectations are for additional intense thunderstorms to
develop by 18-21Z across the higher terrain of east-central AZ and
vicinity as an upper trough/low over CA moves inland over the Great
Basin. The mid-level jet attendant to the upper trough/low will also
translate eastward through the day, with strong deep-layer shear
remaining over a gradually destabilizing airmass. The primary severe
threat should remain large hail with any sustained supercells
(isolated 2+ inches possible). But, the risk for severe/damaging
winds may increase by mid to late afternoon as convection spreads
from eastern AZ into western NM, with some potential for clustering.
A few tornadoes also appear possible, mainly over east-central AZ
this afternoon when the best combination of greater boundary-layer
instability and low-level shear are forecast to overlap. While the
severe threat across these areas will peak in the mid to late
afternoon when instability is strongest, at least an isolated threat
should continue through much of the evening with eastward extent
into western/central NM before convection eventually weakens.

Farther north into the Great Basin, both low-level moisture and
related MLCAPE are generally more limited. Even so, multiple
corridors of isolated severe hail/wind potential may exist this
afternoon as convection develops ahead of the eastward-translating
upper trough/low amid strong southerly flow/shear through much of
the troposphere. Recent short-term guidance suggests a small cluster
may form and spread northeastward across northern NV into southern
ID, with some potential for strong to locally severe gusts.

...Coastal Southern California...
Additional organized bands of low-topped convection appear unlikely
this morning into the afternoon across coastal southern CA.
Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been removed with this update.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/22/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 16:43:20 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 221642
SWODY1
SPC AC 221641

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FOUR CORNERS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest,
with the most intense cells expected across parts of Arizona and
western New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Arizona/Four Corners and Great Basin...
Another active and relatively rare setup from a climatological
perspective continues regionally, and will tend to shift
east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening. This will be
as the upper low in vicinity of the SoCal coast continues to become
more northeastward progressive today, reaching portions of the Great
Basin and lower Colorado River Valley by this evening.

Scenario will continue to favor supercells, particularly for eastern
Arizona and western New Mexico from a longer-duration and tornado
perspective, as low-level winds otherwise will tend to take on more
of a westerly component over time farther west across Arizona as the
upper trough approaches. Severe probabilities have been
increased/expanded northward toward the Four Corners/Colorado
Plateau vicinity, where an atypically rare setup of
deep-layer/low-level shear coincident with modest but adequate
severe-conducive degree of destabilization is expected.

As compared to yesterday, a greater coverage of storms will likely
exist by later today/afternoon, which may mean a less-discrete
nature of the supercells, but with more numerous
severe-caliber/supercell storms capable of large hail, damaging
winds and a tornado risk. Recent Tucson WSR-88D VWP data still
reflects strong low-level shear/SRH and (splitting)
supercell-favorable deep-layer wind profiles, with the probability
that tornado potential will probably maximize across eastern
Arizona/far western New Mexico this afternoon into evening,
especially where topography influences a low-level easterly wind
component. Large hail will be associated with both left-moving and
right-moving supercells.

Farther north-northwest into the Great Basin, both low-level
moisture and related MLCAPE are generally more limited. Even so,
multiple corridors of isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado
potential will exist this afternoon. This will be as semi-low-topped
convection develops ahead of the eastward-translating upper
trough/low amid strong southerly flow/shear through much of the
troposphere.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 10/22/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 19:57:48 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 221957
SWODY1
SPC AC 221955

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across the Southwest,
with the most intense cells expected across parts of Arizona and
western New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...20z Update...
Convective coverage has increased across portions of
eastern/northeastern Arizona over the past couple of hours, with
widely scattered supercell structures noted through the
morning/early afternoon via regional radar imagery. Expectations
remain generally unchanged regarding the evolution of this
convection and the associated severe threat across much of eastern Arizona/western New Mexico and the Four Corners region. Thus, no
changes were made to the primary risk area.

Along the periphery, a minor eastward expansion of the existing
Level 1/Marginal Risk was made along the central CO/NM border where
some low-probability potential for mainly damaging wind gusts may
persist farther eastward. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments were
made to the General Thunder area, including some trimming along the
California coastline to the west of the mid/upper trough axis. See
the previous discussion and MCD #2399 for additional information.

..Chalmers.. 10/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026/

...Arizona/Four Corners and Great Basin...
Another active and relatively rare setup from a climatological
perspective continues regionally, and will tend to shift
east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening. This will be
as the upper low in vicinity of the SoCal coast continues to become
more northeastward progressive today, reaching portions of the Great
Basin and lower Colorado River Valley by this evening.

Scenario will continue to favor supercells, particularly for eastern
Arizona and western New Mexico from a longer-duration and tornado
perspective, as low-level winds otherwise will tend to take on more
of a westerly component over time farther west across Arizona as the
upper trough approaches. Severe probabilities have been
increased/expanded northward toward the Four Corners/Colorado
Plateau vicinity, where an atypically rare setup of
deep-layer/low-level shear coincident with modest but adequate
severe-conducive degree of destabilization is expected.

As compared to yesterday, a greater coverage of storms will likely
exist by later today/afternoon, which may mean a less-discrete
nature of the supercells, but with more numerous
severe-caliber/supercell storms capable of large hail, damaging
winds and a tornado risk. Recent Tucson WSR-88D VWP data still
reflects strong low-level shear/SRH and (splitting)
supercell-favorable deep-layer wind profiles, with the probability
that tornado potential will probably maximize across eastern
Arizona/far western New Mexico this afternoon into evening,
especially where topography influences a low-level easterly wind
component. Large hail will be associated with both left-moving and
right-moving supercells.

Farther north-northwest into the Great Basin, both low-level
moisture and related MLCAPE are generally more limited. Even so,
multiple corridors of isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado
potential will exist this afternoon. This will be as semi-low-topped
convection develops ahead of the eastward-translating upper
trough/low amid strong southerly flow/shear through much of the
troposphere.

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 23 01:02:50 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 230102
SWODY1
SPC AC 230101

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across the Southwest
and Great Basin tonight. The most intense cells are expected across
parts western New Mexico through the remainder of this evening.
Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are all possible.

...Southwest and Great Basin...
Evening water-vapor imagery showed the upper low over central CA has transitioned into a broad, negatively titled open wave. Mid-level
southerly flow remains quite strong on the eastern periphery of the
trough over eastern AZ, NM, and farther north into the Great Basin.
The main associated vort max should continue northeastward from NV
into UT and WY/ID tonight. Farther south, mid-level subsidence and
dry air behind a surface trough were observed moving across southern
CA/NV into western and central AZ. This should serve as the
effective western terminus to deep convection.

To the east of the wind shift, ongoing convection has remained
relatively strong and well organized owing to moderate buoyancy and strong/deep, but modestly veering wind profiles. A mix of supercells
and linear clusters should continue into this evening as main band
of convection gradually shifts into western NM and southern CO.
Buoyancy is forecast to gradually decrease through this evening, but
with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, convection should remain fairly robust
well into the evening hours. Favorable deep-layer shear for
supercells (EBWD 50-60 kt) will continue to support a risk for hail
along with severe gusts. A tornado or two also remains possible,
particularly from northwestern NM, northward toward southern CO
where low-level flow is backed and terrain influence is supporting
larger low-level hodograph curvature.

To the north, numerous thunderstorms remain ongoing, but with
somewhat weaker presentation. Buoyancy (MLCAPE generally less than
500 J/kg) remains fairly limited, but sufficient for intermittent
stronger updrafts, especially as the cold core aloft moves overhead
eastern NV and western UT into tonight. With deep-layer shear
forecast to remain quite strong overnight, isolated strong to severe
storms remain possible. Damaging gusts are the most likely hazard,
though sporadic hail will also be possible, particularly with any
rotating storms able to be maintained.

..Lyons.. 10/23/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 23 06:02:56 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 230602
SWODY1
SPC AC 230601

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two
are possible across portions of New Mexico and southern Colorado
today into tonight.

An elongated western US trough will drift eastward today as the
primary vort max is forecast to lift northeastward across the Great
Basin into the northern Rockies through tonight. A secondary
shortwave perturbation will round the base of the trough and
approach coastal southern CA. Despite the fragmented nature of the
upper trough, mid-level meridional flow will remain fairly strong
from portions of northern Mexico to the Canadian border. Ascent
associated with both perturbations and the strong flow crossing the
higher terrain will aid in developing a lee cyclone across eastern
MT. A trailing lee trough will connect to a second, much weaker,
cyclone over southern NM and northern Senora. This will support
modest northward return of unseasonably robust moisture, and
subsequent destabilization across NM and the southern High Plains
favorable for strong to severe storms.

...New Mexico and southern Colorado...
Remnant showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are likely to be
ongoing early this morning across the higher terrain of northern NM
and southern CO. The impact this convection and cloud debris will
have on later convective development is somewhat uncertain.
Regardless, mid-level ascent, persistent upslope flow and continued
advection of 50-60 F surface dewpoints should result in adequate destabilization (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) by early afternoon across
southern CO and northern NM. Subsequent development and
intensification of multiple rounds of thunderstorms are likely, with organization into supercells and clusters expected, owing to
elongated and fairly straight hodographs. Hail will be the primary
risk, with isolated strong gusts possible as well. However, some
veering in the low-levels, aided by terrain-induced backing of the
flow and moist low-levels could support a low-probability tornado
risk with the strongest supercells.

Farther south more robust diurnal heating is expected to develop
where clearing should be more prominent. Afternoon MLCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg is likely to exist amidst the strong wind fields.
While low-level flow is expected to remain more veered with the
weaker surface pressure response, straight hodographs and effective
shear greater than 40 kt will still favor splitting supercells.
Large hail (some 2+ inch) is possible. The deeper mixing, especially
with eastward extent in southern NM and far west TX, may also
support some damaging/severe gust potential if storms remain higher
based.

...High Plains...
A more isolated severe risk could develop within the foothills and
adjacent high Plains of southeastern CO where modest buoyancy,
increasingly strong flow aloft, and steeper low-level lapse rates
will exist. Convection emanating from the higher terrain could
persist into the drier and more deeply mixed air mass beginning mid
to late afternoon, enhancing downdrafts and damaging gust potential.
The degree of organization/intensity of these storms is uncertain,
but 5% wind probabilities have been added.

..Lyons/Thornton.. 10/23/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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