ACUS11 KWNS 230043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230043
NMZ000-230145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Western and north-central New Mexico

Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 693...694...

Valid 230043Z - 230145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 693, 694 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail and a few severe wind
gusts may continue for a couple more hours across parts of western
and north-central New Mexico.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows what appears to be a
surface trough extending north-northeastward across western and
northern New Mexico. The RAP shows an axis of low-level convergence
along and near the trough. This, along with topographic effects, has
supported convective development this evening across western and
northern New Mexico. Several strong to severe storms are ongoing
near and just to the west of the trough, along which surface
dewpoints are in the lower to mid 50s F and MLCAPE is estimated by
the RAP around 500 J/kg. In addition, the latest VAD Wind Profiler
near Albuquerque has 0-6 km shear around 30 knots with substantial
mid-level speed shear. This, along with sufficiently steep mid-level
lapse rates, will support rotating storms capable of isolated large
hail. A few severe wind gusts will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 10/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7jDs2--QnQgQLOhN1xIwxce7z2Gxjb-AdOJ098vHN2WjwDppp8jMWzRdG0yJGNK92AfCPxMjLkuLvtJ0Cf0IuqvkATM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35360774 35640758 36130730 36450697 36600664 36660624
36570603 36380588 36030578 35690585 35290622 34860700
34790738 34860755 35020770 35150773 35360774

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
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