ACUS11 KWNS 302005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302005=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-302200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2165
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Areas affected...Southern Iowa and far northern Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 693...

Valid 302005Z - 302200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 693
continues.

SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue to pose a risk of damaging
winds across southern Iowa and far northern Missouri over the next
few hours. However, downstream watch issuance is not currently
anticipated given recent convective trends.

DISCUSSION...An organized bowing segment with a history of producing
severe winds continues to migrate across south-central IA. However,
a decrease in vertically integrated ice, VIL, and echo top height
has been noted over the past 30 minutes, suggesting that the severe
wind threat may be decreasing in spatial extent and/or intensity to
some degree. This is likely attributable to the QLCS meandering into
a slightly more stable air mass where daytime heating has been muted
due to preceding clouds and light rain. Despite these trends,
gradual destabilization continues immediately downstream of the line
and ahead of the cold front due to strong low-level warm/moist
advection with MLCAPE estimates up to 500 J/kg per mesoanalysis and
RAP forecast soundings. The combination of modest
destabilization/ascent and favorable deep-layer, line-orthogonal
wind shear may maintain the severe wind threat downstream through
the remainder of WW 693. Additional watch issuance into
southeast/eastern IA remains uncertain and will be conditional on
convective trends over the next 1-2 hours.

..Moore.. 10/30/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9-DGBSCAv_PNM7KV-KSYnLSk01VCSpyQr_NC1c5JK8nL-ejRarav2oT8ZGF8qF_jR6puFCiXK= WKzeM5XQXSpL0ybeRo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 41459431 42289321 42459298 42499275 42479252 42399239
42279228 41519209 40899209 40549230 40359263 40289311
40459436 40639442 41049442 41459431=20


=3D =3D =3D
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