ABNT20 KNHC 011136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system
drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Greater
Antilles and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the
northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system is possible
during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward near the
Greater Antilles. After that time, this system is expected to be
absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next
several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern
Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

North Atlantic:
A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located about 400 miles
west of the western Azores is producing limited shower activity.
Some subtropical development is possible while the low moves
generally eastward during the next few days. Additional information
on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 011735
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system
drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Greater
Antilles and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the
northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system is possible
during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward near the
Greater Antilles. After that time, this system is expected to be
absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next
several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern
Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

North Atlantic:
A low pressure system located a few hundred miles west of the Azores
has been producing increased convection near its center over the
past few hours. Earlier satellite derived wind data depicted winds
to storm-force mainly to the south of the the center.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some additional
development and the system could become a subtropical or tropical
storm as it moves generally eastward during the next few days.
Interest in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional information on this system is available in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 021128
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Subtropical Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic
Ocean.

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves generally northward to northwestward over the central
and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Near the Greater Antilles:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and gusty
winds extending from near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola northeastward
for a few hundred miles are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Slow development of this system is possible during the
next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward near the
Greater Antilles. By early next week, this system is expected to be
absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during
the next few days across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas. For more
information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty are issued
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty are
issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 031141
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean near the
Azores Islands.

Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while
moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress
of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings could be
required later today or tonight for portions of the area. An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Near the Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure a couple hundred miles east of the
southeastern Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic. Slow development of this system is possible
during the day or so while it moves westward toward the southeastern
Bahamas and eastern Cuba. This system is expected to be absorbed
into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97) by late
Monday, ending its chances of development. Regardless of formation,
locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days
across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 041132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean east of
the Azores Islands.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, located over the south-central portion of
the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward
Islands in a few days. Some slow development of this system is
possible after that time as it moves generally westward over the
southwestern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen are
issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 051151
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rafael, located over the west-central Caribbean Sea.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward
Islands in a couple of days. Afterward, some slow development of
this system is possible during the latter part of the week while it
moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 071136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rafael, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Near the Leeward Islands:
A trough of low pressure over the northern Leeward Islands continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are possible across the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 081141
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rafael, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Near Greater Antilles:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure that extends from the central Caribbean Sea northeastward across Hispaniola and into the southwestern Atlantic.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next
couple of days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern
Bahamas through Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 091139
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Near the Bahamas:
A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of
the central Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to
occur during the next day or two while it moves westward to
west-northwestward. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
and gusty winds are possible across the Bahamas through Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 101122
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Near the Bahamas (AL98):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have decreased in areal
coverage since yesterday near a trough of low pressure located less
than a couple of hundred miles east of the central Bahamas.
Development is becoming less likely as the system is forecast to
reach more unfavorable environmental conditions later today.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are
possible as the system moves generally westward across the Bahamas
through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 111134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week or this weekend while moving slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 121123
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the end of the week as the system
moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Afterward,
the disturbance is expected to meander over the western Caribbean
Sea through the weekend and begin moving slowly, generally
northwestward, by early next week. Interests across the western
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...Medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


$$
Forecaster Roberts

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 131219 CCA
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

Corrected to add information about High Seas Forecasts and Gale
warnings.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central and Western Caribbean Sea (AL99):
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days
while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean
Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance
meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The
system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week.
Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development,
heavy rains are expected over Jamaica during the next day or so. For
more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 141129
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
formed Tropical Depression Nineteen, located over the western
Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen are
issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 151134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sara, located near the northern coast of Honduras.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 161127
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sara, still located near the northern coast of Honduras.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 171124
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sara, located near the coast of Belize.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 181136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the
remnants of Sara, emerging into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
from the southwestern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 191130
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
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