ACUS11 KWNS 021352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021351=20
TXZ000-021515-

Mesoscale Discussion 2180
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Areas affected...portions of far western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021351Z - 021515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A severe gust or brief QLCS tornado cannot be completely
ruled out over the next couple of hours. The severe threat should be
sparse in the near term, and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A bowing segment, embedded within a broader-scale MCS,
continues to propagate eastward within a moist, marginally unstable
airmass. Regional VADs depict relatively small, curved hodographs,
indicative of a marginal shear environment. However, the bowing
segment is traversing a convectively induced baroclinic boundary,
which may locally augment the potential for a severe gust or brief
QLCS tornado. Nonetheless, the severe threat should be sparse at
best, and a WW issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 11/02/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7YDkOP3cB53ADLnzDLRuRZHirPfieIPos9YhEGCgLyXKoZYIS0yW40b2a3S2dDsbh_ubXVbmH= VQ-XcyJOxeDwFM_k0g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...

LAT...LON 34030248 34240178 34320086 34060047 33680078 33590146
33570210 33620247 34030248=20


=3D =3D =3D
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