ACUS11 KWNS 021753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021752=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-021945-

Mesoscale Discussion 2181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021752Z - 021945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts will be possible across southern
OK heading into the afternoon hours as a line of T-storms continues
to organize.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a weak line of convection across
southwest OK has shown signs of increasing organization/intensity in
the form of a consolidating/more balanced outflow and increasing
VIL/VII values and lightning counts. Downstream, continued low-level
theta-e advection into southern/central OK is promoting MLCAPE
values up to around 500 J/kg per recent mesoanalysis estimates, and
the KFDR VWP is sampling 0-3 km BWD values of around 30 knots with
shear vectors oriented largely orthogonal to the line. These
convective and environmental trends suggest that further
intensification of the line is possible with an attendant increase
in damaging wind potential in the coming hours. However, extensive
cloud cover will likely modulate overall destabilization of an
already spatially limited warm sector across southern OK, which
should limit convective intensity. Trends will continue to be
monitored, but this line is not expected to reach sufficient
intensity to prompt a watch issuance.

..Moore/Smith.. 11/02/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7fC7HfoW9TyGfVZjt3t0N3BzGyo1zeFCDWYCf238Quv1sRlbUwVZmQD4DiiQAAJ0n7xElw0pl= dOBf50_ufKhkm5Lxto$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 34369966 34519958 34769949 35029945 35149932 35369840
35449765 35309736 35129721 34869726 34589739 34309763
34109792 33999817 33959843 34199950 34219969 34369966=20


=3D =3D =3D
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