ACUS11 KWNS 031039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031038=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-031245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2189
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...Far Southwest MO...Northwest AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 031038Z - 031245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line across northeast Oklahoma is
expected to weaken as it moves into far southwest Missouri and
northwest Arkansas. A watch is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A well-organized convective line continues to move
across eastern OK. Northern portion of the line has surged more
northeastward, with current storm motion estimated at 40 to 45 kt.
This takes this portion of the line to the northeastern OK border
around 1130Z. A stable airmass currently exists downstream across
far southwest MO and northwest AR, and the general expectation is
for the line to weaken below severe thresholds as it enters this
region. As a result, a watch is not currently anticipated, but
overall convective trends will still be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 11/03/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!885HaKbIvY85pkMJr8yUOK3DkMM1sbI9e3d03y52mi8ObSKQrNIwusg6EBUxppT0_XHfx7YDo= 39m7PJUxr1TNsj6OMY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 36769459 37179426 37069345 35879283 34959318 34939435
35829450 36769459=20


=3D =3D =3D
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