ACUS11 KWNS 031552
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031551=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-031745-

Mesoscale Discussion 2190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...portions of central and western North TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 031551Z - 031745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage and
intensity through the morning over parts of central and western
North TX. A mix of supercells and linear segments may support a risk
for all hazards. There remains significant uncertainty on the timing
and intensity of the the threat, but the possibility of a WW is
being monitored.

DISCUSSION...As of 1545 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
showed intensifying thunderstorms along a dryline across
west-central TX. A second, semi-elevated cluster was also ongoing
northwest of Killeen. Ascent, in the form of a broad area of height
falls and weak DPVA should continue to overspread the Southern
Plains this morning and afternoon ahead of a deepening upper trough.
South of a well-defined outflow boundary/quasi warm front near the
Red River, additional storm development appears likely over the next
several hours. Surface temperatures in the mid 70s with surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70F are allowing 1000-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates. Weak
inhibition is slowly diminishing with diffuse diurnal
heating/low-level advection warming the air mass.

As the upper trough approaches, moderate deep-layer shear should
intensify, with 45-60 kt favorable for organized storms in the form
of a mix of supercells and line segments. Additional storm
development is likely south of the outflow along the dryline and
potentially across the warm sector through this morning. As storms
slowly mature, a risk damaging winds and hail appears likely given
the favorable shear and buoyancy. The tornado threat is more
nebulous, but somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs and stronger
low-level shear near the effective warm front could support a risk
for a few tornadoes. Eventually, one or more clusters/QLCS should
emerge as upscale growth of numerous storms takes place.

The primary uncertainty this morning is how quickly storm mature.
Some CAM solutions are quite aggressive, suggesting storms quickly
maturing over the next 1-2 hours. Others are more gradual with the
greatest threat later this afternoon. Regardless, the environment is
becoming more favorable for an all hazards severe risk this morning.
The need for a WW is being evaluated.

..Lyons/Hart.. 11/03/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6qyOLRSeAlto9Tnj-oOmsGrjRHn5efQoZnVoQMC5o97bx057QNpnH20DdC9dMuclUpVOQOPPj= gobx08540voY4lGv2c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 34439989 34499941 34359898 34249849 33929744 33129693
32669708 31559774 30969838 30569940 30580063 30660219
32190150 33290110 34230007 34439989=20


=3D =3D =3D
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