ACUS11 KWNS 031914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031913=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-032045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2191
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...western North Texas and southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 701...

Valid 031913Z - 032045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 701
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms continue to organize early this afternoon.
The risk for damaging winds, hail and a tornado or two should
increase as storms grow upscale.

DISCUSSION...Across WW701, intermittent heating amidst strong
low-level warm air advection has resulted in several clusters of
strong to severe storms across portions of western North TX. Within
an unstable and moderately sheared environment, further intensification/development of new storms is expected this afternoon
and evening across portions of northwest TX and southwest OK. Storm
mode has been mixed with predominately linear elements near I-20 and
a few more cellular structures farther north.=20

Hi-res guidance suggests the additional storms that develop will
prompt upscale growth into one or more linear clusters or a QLCS
with time. Storms should spread over much of western North TX and
into southwestern Oklahoma later this afternoon and evening. The
potential for numerous storm interactions and upscale growth
suggests the primary severe risk over the next few hours will be
wind and hail. However, shear profiles are strong enough to support
supercells, and some guidance does show more discrete development is
possible ahead of the primary band of storms. Should this occur, a
risk for a few tornadoes could materialize near the warm front where
low-level hodograph curvature is maximized.

..Lyons.. 11/03/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6V_9dP8YPEoj-oDuBWfWowkMWvwRiNmnklCIpMzpSG8QSTyFK96b_arEgxwlmWjTN38fPPRFc= XWCHa32gOqf8lkKisE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 32320030 33929998 34879942 35239900 34959807 34589782
33899756 33119750 32609813 31969900 31929907 31920010
32320030=20


=3D =3D =3D
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