050
WTNT33 KNHC 061159
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
700 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...RAFAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT LANDFALL
IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 81.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for Grand Cayman.

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning areas. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 81.6 West. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general northwestward
motion is anticipated over the next day or two, followed by a
gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the
forecast track, Rafael is expected move near or over the Isle of
Youth later this morning or early this afternoon, and make landfall
in western Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to move into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Rafael
could be near major hurricane intensity before it makes landfall in
Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is
expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions, possibly in gusts, are expected in
portions of the Cayman Islands for the next couple of hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of
west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in
central Cuba today.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into western Cuba. Rainfall totals between 4 to 7 inches
are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, with
isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of
higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and
mudslides. Across Jamaica, heavy rain bands on the backside of
Rafael will bring an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf .

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands, and could raise
water levels by as much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels in
areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the
Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on Wednesday.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today over the Florida
Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


$$
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