ACUS01 KWNS 071644
SWODY1
SPC AC 071642

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES

...SUMMARY...
Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes
are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas.

...West and Central TX...
A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through
tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave
trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX
overnight. The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W
across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing
very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX.


Current indications are that storms will become more numerous
through the afternoon and evening across the region. Vertical shear
profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts,
but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to
the north of the front. Along and to the south of the boundary,
forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of
damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening. Have
extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning
CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later
today.

..Hart.. 11/07/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101640
SWODY1
SPC AC 101639

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1039 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED TO CHANGE SUNDAY TO MONDAY

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears minimal through tonight.

...Discussion...
An upper low now crossing the Upper Mississippi Valley is forecast
to gradually devolve into an open wave, as it crosses the Upper
Great Lakes region and shifts across the Ottawa River and St.
Lawrence Valleys, and Lower Great Lakes through the end of the
period. As this occurs, a surface cold front will similarly
progress eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest region
today, reaching the central and southern Appalachians by 11/12Z
(Monday morning).

Ahead of the front, a relatively moist boundary layer but weak lapse
rates aloft will permit only weak warm-sector instability. While a
more tropical low-level airmass will reside in the vicinity of the
Lower Mississippi Valley, in part due to east-southeasterly
advection associated with the presence of Tropical Storm Rafael
sitting nearly stationary over the central Gulf, weak shear
precludes appreciable severe potential. Farther north, stronger
flow aloft will be offset by lower theta-e/weak CAPE as compared to
areas farther south. As such, severe weather is not anticipated.

..Goss/Lyons.. 11/10/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111636
SWODY1
SPC AC 111635

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...Discussion...
A progressive large-scale regime will persist with troughing
prevalent over the West and Great Lakes to Northeast, with upper
ridging over the Great Plains. Over the middle Gulf Coast, isolated
to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an
inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending
northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. A
few strong storms may occur near coastal southeast Louisiana, but
near-land severe potential should remain limited.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/11/2024

$$

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