ACUS11 KWNS 211009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211009=20
WIZ000-ILZ000-211345-

Mesoscale Discussion 2238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0409 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern Wisconsin into adjacent
northeastern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 211009Z - 211345Z

SUMMARY...An hour or two period of 1-2+ inch per hour snow rates
appears possible early this morning, coincident with strong gusty
winds resulting in blowing snow and reduced visibilities. This
appears most likely to spread from near or just west of Green Bay
southward through the Oshkosh vicinity and areas west of Milwaukee
by around 8-9 AM CST.

DISCUSSION...To the southwest of the lingering occluded surface
cyclone over the upper peninsula of Michigan, sub-freezing
thermodynamic profiles remain entrenched across much of Wisconsin,
in the presence of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm
advection. This is occurring in advance of a southwestward then
southward pivoting mid-level cyclonic vorticity center, which is
forecast to be accompanied by strengthening northerly flow to 50-60
kt in the 850-700 mb layer across much of eastern Wisconsin.

Associated strengthening of large-scale ascent is likely to continue contributing to saturation of thermodynamic profiles and the
development of snow through 13-15Z. Models suggest that lift may
become strong and focused near and just ahead of the mid-level
cyclonic vorticity center, maximized within a layer near/above 700
mb with temperatures around -15C, and conducive to large dendritic
ice crystal growth. It appears that this may be accompanied by a
period of heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2+ inches per hour,
coincident with strengthening, gusty surface winds.

..Kerr.. 11/21/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-71MjltA1-23HvG6yjHA_kZTrxFjbEfezhL2KCQQ9TBi9_lV5aeyE-OepdkkxZDJHN0EWuUrW= PkU758iFOXEujbGwf4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...

LAT...LON 45018918 44728772 43868764 42428826 43148946 45018918=20


=3D =3D =3D
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