ACUS11 KWNS 152029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152029=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-152230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0210
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...southeast Mississippi into central Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 45...46...

Valid 152029Z - 152230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45, 46 continues.

SUMMARY...Multiple supercells capable of intense to potentially
violent tornadoes to persist into the evening.

DISCUSSION...A line of supercells continues from east-central
Alabama to south-central Mississippi. Most of these supercells have
a history of tornadoes including a few intense to potentially
violent tornadoes. The environment ahead of these supercells remains
very favorable for tornadoes with 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE per SPC
mesoanalysis and 0-1km SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2 per GWX VWP. This
yields a STP value around 5 which is forecast to shift east with
these storms through the evening. Convective trends have shown rapid
strong to intense tornado development in supercells with unimpeded
inflow and circulation disruption when surrounding
showers/thunderstorms impede this inflow. Expect this pattern to
continue into the early evening with the greatest concern being
supercells with clear inflow of at least mid 60s dewpoints.=20

The threat for intense to potentially violent tornadoes will persist
from these supercells as long as they can remain ahead of the
developing line of storms across central Mississippi. Based on
current storm motions, they should remain ahead of this line of
storms into the early evening.

..Bentley.. 03/15/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5CH1__x0gUJ7WCK3eq-TAEPjUkpRpoVZMNu5EtYfEC4SADQy0Fa-A3xea72lXR7tNm7-0zMew= 4IumLjJ8cw5yAoaguQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30708991 31059011 31898968 32888868 33258832 33818761
33858721 33698699 33108692 31988717 30978810 30688922
30708991=20


=3D =3D =3D
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