AWUS01 KWNH 152046
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-160230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0065
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
446 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...Eastern LA...Southeast MS...Southern AL....

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152045Z - 160230Z

SUMMARY...Lines of rotating cells are starting to congeal into a
more single line and starting to advance eastward. Better
alignment of moisture and instability axis will retain moisture
flux to support up to 2"/hr rates; however, a more easterly
component may reduce some training and therefore flash flooding
will become more scattered in nature over higher FFG.=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts core of negative tilt
shortwave has swung through Arkansas into the middle MS valley,
this has resulted in low level veering and alignment of the
moisture and instability axis across E LA into S MS. Currently,
merging cells across the best confluence in S MS is resulting in
higher than average rainfall rates (to other cells) due to
slightly backed flow downshear of surface low near BTR. Moisture
flux of 20-25kts of low 70s Tds and 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE will
maintain strong updrafts and efficient low level moisture flux
convergence for rates of 2"/hr, perhaps as high as 2.5-3" for very
short periods when isallobaric flow increases with cycling of updrafts/supercells.=20

Upper-level flow is starting to increase with overspreading of WSW
3H jet over 110kts, increasing easterly propagation component to
the convective line. This will reduce training in the longer
period, so supercells will continue to remain efficient along the
line with streets of 2-3" totals possible. Combined with the
generally higher FFG values across S MS/AL and E LA, flash
flooding should become more scattered/isolated in nature as the
line increases forward speed. However, there are numerous prone
urban centers, particularly along I-10 that may be quickly
over-whelmed by 1-2" sub-hourly totals if directly impacted by the
leading broad downdrafts. As such, flash flooding is considered
possible across the area of concern. An additional MPD will be
issued subsequent to discuss higher likelihood flooding conditions
further north.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!47acq6U6UiFDtOn5lz9LnQ7bSRAEohWdHH8qHVXCHooew4f0BdlG2iwOFFw53xlugh5a= 2eMIAF4cfO_voMfiU4v6nrw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33398592 32748566 31788611 31128717 30488834=20
29839028 30519073 31999005 32718931 33318745=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152129
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-160315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0066
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
528 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...Middle & Eastern TN...Northeast MS...Northern
AL...Northwest GA...South-Central KY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152130Z - 160315Z

SUMMARY...Multiple lines of thunderstorms with moderate shield
precipitation between crossing already saturated/low FFG soil
conditions, likely to continue flash flooding risk through to
early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...A very complex surface pattern exists across the
middle MS Valley due to the back to back strong upper-level
shortwaves. This continues through depth with the EML from the
prior stronger closed low being modified by earlier convection
this morning across E TN/N MS; while a secondary dry slot is
starting to manifest across AR in the wake of the secondary
shortwave now maturing across S MO. As such, surface moisture
though worked over, remains across E TN/W KY/N MS with TDs still
in the upper 50s/lower 60s. However, strong LLJ in response to
the shortwave has allowed for the western branch of low level
moisture and warming at the boundary layer to wash through and
with steepening lapse rates from the new EML; an expanding area of
MUCAPE is developing across NE MS and W Middle TN in the wake of
the stronger cells further east. As such, there is an expectation
of the stronger forcing along the cold front and lifting surface
low across N MS to expand elevated thunderstorms along the leading
edge further into W Middle TN. MUCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg will
increase over the next few hours and feed cells and given strong
low level moisture flux convergence allow for increasing rainfall
potential with 1-1.5"/hr rates possible. This is going to fall on
areas already saturated/flooded by earlier rounds of thunderstorms
(see below) and likely to exceed the compromised FFG values at or
below 1.5 at 1-3 hour time periods.

Ahead of this new development, the initial storms continue to
press eastward across E Middle TN into the Cumberland Plateau as
well as extending back as a pre-frontal convective line across N
AL and NE MS. A broad shield of moderate precipitation is likely
to continue between these two lines maintaining flooding
conditions through the late evening/early overnight period.=20=20
Cells to the east are starting to weaken a bit, with reducing
lightning mainly has area has only received advected higher
theta-E air from central AL/NE GA given cloud cover inhibiting
insolation throughout the day. Still, there is weak but
sufficient MUCAPEs into E TN and far S KY to maintain some. A
spot or two of 3-4" remains possible organization over the next
few hours. Rates of 1-1.5"/hr are probable given the broad,
strong LLJ pumping 1.5-1.75" TPW (mainly below 700mb) on 50+kts of
850mb southerly flow/WAA. As such, rainfall pattern will show
broad area of 2-3" across much of the eastern half of TN and
northern AL where multiple rounds will cross with embedded
weakening but intense showers to overtake those lower FFG
values/saturated soils in the region keeping flash flooding likely
through much of of the evening into early overnight period; but a
spot or two of 3-4" may result in considerable or even significant
flash flooding possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9BAOaS0GR8qN_Lw5l6zu_8ndMnqMO_QKRe3gr0a_a7eWDmIYEO2pGoZ15D8wpzhZB-H9= YbKfZSHxeuDjH6T-pjLeEpY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...
OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37158440 36498387 35568421 34458484 33638532=20
33158642 32408895 32688965 33928905 35528824=20
36368765 36728673 37148538=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152313
FFGMPD
CAZ000-ORZ000-160915-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0067
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
713 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...Southwest Oregon...Far Northwest CA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall

Valid 152315Z - 160915Z

SUMMARY...Persistent solid, relatively unwavering moist onshore
flow to bring average .25"/hr & up to .5"/hr rates; resulting in
localized totals of 4-5" in Coastal Range of SW Oregon and 2-3"
across lower slopes of southern Oregon Cascades.=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows classically anti-cyclonically
curved strong upper-level jet with axis starting to near the
Oregon coast in the next hour or so. A highly sheared
vorticity/shortwave center along the northwest edge of the axis
will slide northeast into WA and leading nose of enhanced low to
mid-level moisture plume will reach the south-central to southwest
Oregon coastline. Winds will veer to SWly and increase from
40/45kts to 50-60kts by 03z. Visible imagery loop shows moisture
axis as well defined mid-level clouds with a line of enhanced, but
still shallow verticality that extends from near the ridge apex at
126W to 39N136.5W and 35.5N141W aligned with both the enhanced
moisture and surface to boundary layer convergence/confluence
axis. Very slow eastward advancement of the axis will retain
consistency in placement between N Coos to S Curry county in
Oregon for the next 9-12hrs. IVT values of average of 500 will
peak toward 750 kg/m/s throughout the late evening into early
morning hours. Combine this with favored orographic ascent will
allow for current .15-.25"/hr rates to increase to .33" to
occasionally .5"/hr rates in the SW OR boreal rain forest for that
duration.

This should result in localized 4-5" totals across SW Oregon,
while downstream, the moisture will be slightly reduced having
wrung out on the Coastal Range, but rates of .25-.33"/hr across
the Southern Oregon Cascades may allow for spots of 2-3" totals by
12z. This will be fairly focused and solid, given the location is
fairly accepting of these rainfall totals, increased run-off
should feed rivers but not likely result in rapid
run-off/inundation. As such, will leave this Atmospheric River as
Heavy Rainfall tag at this time.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5zSf8W_nkpEGKMSaxA5uhOGgHaTwtXSPZidNkJWNTvODKinYFpU2Mr5iSP1OoZab4pEn= BPgvyOul0YIfudJS1Vkn3OU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...MFR...PQR...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 44932234 44342219 43732228 43082226 42512226=20
42642271 42482332 41762335 41632368 41912437=20
42562454 43202456 43962431 44422419 44622389=20
44412352 44242311 44732266=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160209
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-160600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0068
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1008 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...east-central Alabama into
west-central/northwestern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160207Z - 160600Z

Summary...A cluster of intense convection was producing areas of
1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates just south of the Birmingham Metro area.
Some concern exists that this activity could persist eastward,
eventually reaching the Atlanta Metro area through 04Z/midnight
EDT.

Discussion...Deep, intense convection has materialized throughout
a strongly sheared, unstable warm sector across
central/southwestern Alabama today. More recently, a cluster of
strong storms (including LEWPs/bows and trailing/training
convection) has produced a localized area of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain
rates just south of Birmingham over the past 1-2 hours. These
rates were approaching FFG thresholds (generally in the 2-inch/hr
range), and areas of at least minor excessive runoff are apparent
given MRMS Flash responses across the region.

Some concern exists that this complex will persist northeastward,
likely crossing the AL/GA border region by 03Z and reaching
portions of the Atlanta Metro area through/after 04Z. The extent
of the flash flood threat may be mitigated by weaker downstream
instability (upper 50s F surface dewpoints contributing to only
around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), which could weaken updraft intensity.=20
However, current convective organization and strong shear should
maintain heavier downpours downstream into northwestern Georgia
and result in at least a few areas of 1 inch/hr rainfall rates -
potentially affecting populated areas such as Atlanta Metro.=20
Given the scenario, at least an isolated flash flood threat should
evolve with this convective cluster through 06Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6PkgW2rrRmHcCDSXjUmR1bBndN5Ha0sfrL1oFVZ-5d3mQFMLQT_odohRJTK106XMbTuo= ega-CxuyvNF2pZP_4Qx8dwg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34518516 34418416 33868353 33298349 32998378=20
32578531 32368759 33128757 34098620=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160326
FFGMPD
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-160925-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0069
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...middle/eastern Tennessee into central Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160325Z - 160925Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues across large portions of
Tennessee and Kentucky. This risk should gradually end from west
to east as a surface trough migrates eastward across the area
through 09Z.

Discussion...Widespread heavy rainfall for much of the day has wet
soils and caused many reports of flash flooding today especially
across Middle Tennessee. 2-7 inch storm total amounts have
fallen, and flash flood guidance depicts widespread areas of
near-zero hourly thresholds from far northwestern Alabama through
north-central Kentucky at the latest update. Meanwhile,
widespread rainfall continues to occur. Most of the rainfall is
light in nature and related to a strong convective MCS centered
over Alabama. A narrow corridor of stronger convection has
redeveloped from near Nashville to Huntsville, however, that
contains areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates at times. This corridor of
stronger convection likely represents the end of the heavy
rainfall threat as it shift eastward across the discussion area
through the early overnight hours as only lighter/isolated shower
activity is noted to its west.

Between now and 09Z, another 0.5-1 inch of rainfall can be
expected areawide (with locally higher amounts). These rainfall
totals will exacerbate ongoing flooding and perhaps lead to
additional runoff problems in sensitive areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9dN27J2wElsZ0LJKjflZPrbFzsvJ7zDOs7MCr5Bq9ZmTYbn3GXJVizrxZ1i4jQ9mXhbk= 48RZ5tme3tJFwH3cbpWvU2o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38698453 38528347 37578314 36048367 35078458=20
35028645 35758673 36858638 38318563=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160541
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-160840-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0070
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
140 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...a small part of southeastern Alabama and
southwestern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160540Z - 160840Z

Summary...Localized training of storms on the southwestern flank
of a linear MCS near Columbus could pose a localized flash flood
risk over the next couple hours.

Discussion...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have grown
upscale into an extensive linear segment from near La Grange to
Columbus, GA over the past couple hours. On the southwestern
flank of this MCS, scattered convection continues to increase in
coverage and intensity generally in the area of Troy and
Andalusia, AL. These storms are in a very strongly sheared, moist
and unstable environment with minimal capping. Additionally,
surface wind vectors suggest strong, focused convergence along the
southwestern end of the linear MCS that, when combined with nearly
2 inch PW values, should support areas of training/backbuilding
especially within the stronger instability across southeastern
Alabama. Areas of 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates have been estimated on
the southwestern flank of the MCS (southwest of Columbus), and
short term trends suggest that heavy rainfall should continue in
this area for at least another couple hours until a surface trough
(extending along I-65 from Montgomery to Evergreen) translates
eastward through the area later tonight.

The mesoscale pattern could support an instance or two of flash
flooding as rainfall totals approach FFG thresholds (generally in
the 2.5 inch/hr and 3 inch/3-hr range) over the next couple hours.
An additional 2-3 inches of rainfall cannot be ruled out in the
wake of the initial MCS. Weaker surface-based instability over
Georgia should mitigate the eastward extent of the flash flood
risk.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6mEZyfPIG80kwjuD4vnYA886Ysn63JTQ9nX8dTa7J3dXElvIf8YGal2xt3OqGplQ3jY2= WWrRlmJ6H3RHHhq8mQB9Jro$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 32408483 31968419 31168462 31188599 31418651=20
32288564=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160850
FFGMPD
CAZ000-ORZ000-162049-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0071
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
450 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...portions of western and southwestern Oregon

Concerning...Heavy rainfall

Valid 160849Z - 162049Z

Summary...Persistent rainfall is expected to continue to pose a
risk for flooding and localized flash flooding. Another 2-5
inches of rainfall are possible through at least 21Z today.

Discussion...The ongoing regime supporting heavy rainfall
continues, and very little has changed over the past 12 hours.=20
60-70 knot low to mid-level flow remains oriented perpendicular to
the Oregon Coast and Cascades, promoting orographic lift and
continued rainfall amid 500-750 kg/m/s integrated water vapor
transport values. 0.1-0.3 inch hourly rain rates have persisted,
resulting in 1-3.5 inch rainfall totals over the past 24 hours -
highest across southwestern Oregon coastal ranges. This regime
will continue to persist most of the day, with only a slow
southward shift in the low/mid-level jet axes and attendant
precipitation maxima. Another 2-5 inches of rainfall are expected
areawide - with highest rainfall totals expected across
southwestern Oregon (coastal ranges in particular). This
long-duration rainfall event will result in a gradual increase in
flood potential. Streamflows across the region are already above
average, further supporting the idea of enhanced/efficient runoff
with additional rainfall as the day progresses.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9_R1rtv4cWvOsKkuAhgMCqYmvk2VRaKACoS8WhomDFPAYR4Sy_h44tfRCTUx2DXzNCOT= 43UXf_z6Jag2VRPzox0q970$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...MFR...PDT...PQR...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 44892238 44782181 44212150 43242174 42422193=20
41972324 42032432 42822462 43952437 44222390=20
44522317=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161254
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-161552-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0072
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
853 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...portions of far southeast GA and SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161252Z - 161552Z

Summary...A training band of heavy rain is expected to continue to
lead to hourly totals to 3" with storm totals to 5". This could
lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A bow echo along a convective line in central SC
combined with another mesocyclone near Millen GA have held up
convection across portions of southeast GA and SC. Hourly rain
totals to 3" and local amounts of 5" have been indicated by radar
imagery within this band. Precipitable water values of
1.50-1.75", MU CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, effective bulk shear near 50
kts, and fairly unidrectional flow with height have fostered the
development of this band.

The 06z HREF guidance suggests that this band should persist for
no more than a few hours. For QPF volume, the 00z ARW appears to
have captured this best, though it's too far northeast with the
footprint. The mesocyclone near Millen GA should force forward
propagation of the band later this morning. Until then, expect
the threat of hourly rain totals to 3" with local amounts to 5"
being possible across portions of extreme southeast GA and SC.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!71azd5URerDFRbC3ND0wAvIdIG0g7GkqDj-d3LTDbGgep7Jd6SHNokwY_JH284ueH-xI= 17KwPtUI_oPWzddtfm5psXg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33988040 33308001 32918085 32728216 33318182=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162043
FFGMPD
CAZ000-ORZ000-170730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0073
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
442 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...Southwest Oregon...Northern California...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall

Valid 162045Z - 170730Z

SUMMARY...Flooding risk reducing as cyclone makes landfall and
warm conveyor belt presses quickly southward to intersect coastal
range and northern Sierra Nevada Foothills with heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION...Southwest Oregon has been experiencing prolonged
moderate rainfall for over 24hrs at this point with large areas of
4"+ totals across much of the area of Coos, Douglas, Josephine and
northern Jackson counties and spots in the boreal rain forests of
Curry county in the 8-10" ranges. Longer duration flooding has
been going in atypical locations with the prolonged heavy
rainfall. The strong onshore moisture flux will be ending in the
next hour or so, but a strong surface wave can be seen with a
secondary one further west along an old occluded front. Steeper
lapse rates due to CAA aloft and some modest retention of moisture
along the boundary may allow for some scattered shower activity to
cross SW OR along the occluded front into the stationary front
that crosses into central OR. Rates up to .25-.33"/hr are
possible but will be more scattered in nature and may result in
those ranges of totals in a sub-hourly manner. This is not likely
to further contribute to enhanced flooding, but will slow its
ending for a few more hours.=20=20

Further south...GOES-W Visible imagery shows the cold front and
more directed atmospheric river/warm conveyor belt has started a
southward progression. The core of .75-.9" total PWat continues
to be advected from strong 40-50kt 850mb winds allowing for IVT
values to remain at 650-700 kg/m/s near the triple point that is
near the OR/CA coastline and southeastward. Upper-level
height-falls will continue to support increasing south and
eastward propagation of the cold front and therefore
onshore/upslope moisture flux. Occasional rates of .33-.5"/hr are
possible especially along the steepest inclines of the northern
Sierra Nevada foothills, but duration of moderate rainfall is
likely to be limited to a few hours and likely only result in
spotty totals of 1.5-3" in traditional locations in Butte, Tamaha
and Yuba counties. Coastal Ranges are more likely to see
1.5-2.5", reducing to .75-1.5" by the time the plume further
weakens (wind speeds down to below 35kts) and IVT values fall
below 400 kg/m/s...nearing the mouth of San Francisco Bay between
03-06z. A secondary weaker band of scattered showers will wrap
around the surface low as it translates east and affects the NW
California after 00z as well, adding another .5-.75" for the
totals. Bringing the overall event to close in the early morning
hours tonight.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5nnx9kBXfO4owThSuTG3TcFLcpoLPpnuE59scDkR7fjNIfb7IZmLoD24j9WynYUVfjKv= xqr-e-TbeJ15Le6vVwyrdY8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...MFR...MTR...STO...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 43762376 43402333 42922284 42092262 41122202=20
39922140 39382078 38672050 38392087 38572132=20
39852189 40562243 39762260 38632211 38022277=20
38442338 39022398 39812419 40592462 41122434=20
41812430 42392466 42882466 43412443 43742423=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162158
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-170400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0074
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
558 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...Northeast NC...Southeast VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162200Z - 170400Z

SUMMARY...Continuation of stronger cells capable of 1.5-2"/hr
rates with upstream redevelopment probable resulting in possible
streets of 3"+ totals and localized flash flooding conditions.

DISCUSSION...RADAR mosaic depicts a cluster of stronger elongated
updrafts in proximity to the I-95 corridor tracking through an
area that had already seen an earlier round wetting the grounds
with spots of .75-1.5" as far north as Petersburg/Wakefield, VA.
These cells are aided by a divergence maxima rounding the cyclonic
edge of a fairly laminar upper-level jet. This pattern is
expected to remain similar with a very slow eastward progression;
as such, 500-1000 thickness ridge resides along/just east of the
I-95 corridor and with solid 45-50kts of moist 850mb flow, there
is ample potential for additional upstream redevelopment.=20=20
Alignment of the moisture axis and instability axis appears to be
fairly stable in placement as well with upstream well of 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE to the west and 1.5 to 1.75" of total PWats
eastward. Solid deep layer confluence is providing the upstream
convergence to allow for back-building/redevelopment. However,
the updraft strength is offset a bit being on the gradient of the
instability axis, resulting in inconsistent, narrow updrafts but
stronger cloud base moisture flux allows for efficient loading to
support 1.5-2"/hr rates. Lengths of the updrafts should allow for
an hour or so of training for streaks of 1.5" with each
pulse/round of convection moving northward.

Stronger convergence along the cold front as the base of the trof
drifts eastward is likely to occur after sunset and likely spell=20
the last round, this may be after 04z (the end valid time of this
message) and trends will need to be continually monitored for
additional training and longer duration totals of 3-4" when all is
over earlier tomorrow morning. Area has been fairly dry and FFG
values are high (especially further east in the Coastal Plain);
however, given each round slowly infiltrated and saturates the
upper soils reducing it for the next round. While, an incident or
two of flash flooding is possible, it is more likely to be
isolated, lower-end with greatest risk of higher magnitude of
flooding in urban locations such as Raleigh, Rocky Mount, Emporia,
Petersburg and the Hampton Roads vicinity of SE VA.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5iY5coMLNs81Tr5eQT0UFxE04VIqjH8-mHIs9W4KB6MNGOWjJEA0ZHVJVXa-ktQ6kJzE= XvY4ZQOIjalgGcDRcMqw_Sc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37897661 37867619 37297617 36797596 36597603=20
36207647 35347760 35007846 35417909 36347852=20
37367736=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162247
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-170400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0075
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...Central SC...South-central NC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162245Z - 170400Z

SUMMARY...Expanding thunderstorms within favorable repeat/training
environment pose possible isolated incidents of localized flash
flooding into early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E VIS/EIR loops show
destabilization and convective growth across the Piedmont of
central SC starting to move into central NC. Clear skies
throughout the day allowed for increased insolation and temps to
rise into the upper 70s, low 80s along a tight deep layer moisture
gradient. However, surface low level confluence with
southwesterly flow intersecting with SSW 10-15kts of flow backed a
bit off the coastal Plain is providing sufficient moisture
convergence given Tds into the low to mid 60s. That flux and
solid updraft strength is supporting 1.5"/hr rates. Deep layer
steering does support fast cell motions, however, it is fairly
ideally aligned with the low-level convergence axis to allow for repeating/training, though slow eastward propagation is expected,
spots of 2-2.5" totals in 1-2 hours which is close to exceeding
the FFG values mainly along the Fall-line and the axis of
saturated soils from this morning's heavy rainfall from Allendale
county to Orangeburg county to N Dillon county where 1hr FFG
values are 1.5-2" and 3hr are 1.5-2.5".=20

There is some uncertainty in potential for favorable back-building
environment especially toward the GA/SC line. Stronger forcing
near the southeast base of the rounded upper-level (500 to 300 mb)
jet should support divergence aloft and weak DPVA to aid low level
inflow for back-building; however, drier air infiltrating aloft
also looks to be mixing downward and overall Pwats are decreasing
upstream suggestive of drier air mixing and increasing eastward
propagation limiting training/repeating potential.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6dVV0h7LxCbuKBuOcrFbI-UdTFgw93lAczQB7HCq95kV_2qK-BA_XAcPQduZYi1jHgo0= phmMPnTxOpmwQefHRxLyLtM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35777959 35627911 35257877 34747884 34347905=20
33907955 33158060 32738168 33088194 34098138=20
34578106 35518014=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170225
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-170824-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0076
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1024 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170224Z - 170824Z

Summary...Gradually deepening convection will migrate
northeastward across the discussion area for the next several
hours. Rates of 1-2 inches/hr are expected - highest across
eastern Maryland into the DelMarVa. Isolated flash flooding is
possible in this regime.

Discussion...Several atmospheric factors are combining to result
in increasing convective coverage and heavy rainfall across the
discussion area, including: 1) convergence along a surface cold
front extending from Charlottesville, VA to near Lancaster, PA, 2)
strong low-level flow/warm advection, which was maintaining deeper
convection near/east of Richmond, VA while also maintaining ~500
J/kg SBCAPE and 1-1.5 inch PW ahead of the front, 3) advancing
mid/upper level vorticity (and ascent) from troughing centered
over the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians.

As these features continue to evolve slowly eastward over the next
few hours, axes of heavier rainfall will continue to spread
east/northeastward along and ahead of the aforementioned cold
front. Spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates can be expected at times
nearer the front, while heavier rainfall (including 2-2.5 inch/hr
rain rates) could occur out ahead of the front as is currently
being estimated near/east of Richmond, VA. FFGs across the
discussion area are lowest across the DC-to-Philadelphia I-95
corridor (0.5-1.0 inch/hr) and these thresholds could be eclipsed
on an isolated basis over the next 2-4 hours as the front makes
its way eastward through the region. Heavier rain rates are
expected east of I-95 toward the DelMarVa, although it appears
that ground conditions/FFGs are a bit less sensitive in these
areas, suggestive of more isolated flash flood potential. 2-3
inch rainfall totals are expected across the DelMarVa through 08Z
tonight, with lighter totals expected elsewhere.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Ce5av1YTI927ZG7X7fk5468shHGtUbotqmqvLvoedAIbDL3bVJ0yI5ANf6KErC3x2Ph= W1OxS8Q4GPh1UU3jnDhLs7E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PHI...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 40787539 40437427 39587434 38027549 37357691=20
37677889 38807814 40237663=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170445
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-170900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0077
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1244 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Areas affected...northeastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170444Z - 170900Z

Summary...Deep convection continues to develop across North
Carolina and stream north-northeastward into southeastern
Virginia. 1-2 inch/hr rain rates persist in the strongest
activity. This regime should continue for at least another 3-4
hours, posing a continued risk of flash flooding.

Discussion...Convection has continued to refire along a surface
trough extending from just east of Richmond, VA to just east of
Raleigh, NC over the past couple hours. This trough has allowed
for convective development to remain oriented generally parallel
to deep south-southwesterly flow aloft, allowing for substantial
training in a few locales. Additionally, 1.5+ inch PW values and
500 J/kg SBCAPE supports efficient rainfall processes with the
ongoing storms. Ascent from upstream mid-level troughing
continues to result in ascent/height falls over the trough as
well. These factors support continued, SSW-NNE oriented training
bands of storms for the next 2-4 hours or so.

Over time, eastward translation of the surface trough and
mid-upper forcing will lead to an eventual end of heavy rainfall
potential - most likely after 08-09Z. Between now and then,
concern exists that these training convective bands could
eventually make it in to populated, sensitive areas of
southeastern Virginia where lower FFGs (around 1 inch/hr) could
result in a few areas of flash flooding. It is not out of the
question for rain rates to double those lower values (generally
extending from near Richmond southeastward through Virginia Beach)
and lead to locally significant impacts.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Y2go9nfNkgnIXmUE6p5CsTdp6lYfOFWqV83E671QGmN4vdHIn9_sfKnoBF5s5mDutI1= rQSOJlbJj7BPykGub9s1shI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37587690 37067613 36627606 36017677 35477799=20
36767811 37557755=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 231427
FFGMPD
WAZ000-240230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0078
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1026 AM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Areas affected...Northwest Washington....

Concerning...Heavy rainfall

Valid 231430Z - 240230Z

SUMMARY...Prolonged onshore moisture flux across Olympics and
lower Foothills of northern WA Cascades may result in spots of
3-5" totals, given over .33"/hr average rates. Saturated grounds
and some snow melt may increase run-off increasing stream flows.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite depicts a strong upper-level jet
across the northeast Pacific/southern Gulf of Alaska crossing
central BC before extending southeast into the southern Canadian
Rockies resulting in solid ridging across the Pacific Northwest
with apex of the ridge just west of the coast. This allows for
moderate divergence aloft across southwest BC/northern WA which is
expected to persist through much of the day today allowing for
solid westerly onshore, ascending flow into this divergent area.=20
The southern edge of a warm front has reached the NW WA coast and
is aiding in the ascent/WAA which has started to increase over the
last hour or so across the Olympics. Additionally, this leading
pulse has brought increased low to mid-level moisture via a very
broad atmospheric river plume with sfc-850mb LPW values in the
.5-.6" range with a dual core 850-700mb flow of .25-.3", though
the northern plume/fetch is longer more directed toward southern
Vancouver Island and the NW tip of WA. As a result, 1-1.2" total
PWats are expected being fluxed with 35kts increasing to 50+kts
toward 18-21z. Overall IVT values will increase from 400-450
kg/m/s currently peaking at 650-700 kg/m/s toward 21-00z...then
leveling out around 500 kg/m/s for the rest of the evening into
the overnight.=20=20

The plume's orientation will remain steady through this surge of
moisture flux and favorably intersect the Olympic range with rates
of .15"/hr currently to increase to near/just over .5"/hr in the
best orographic ascent by 18z. The core of the flux will be
north into southern Vancouver Island, but will then slide toward
the northern WA Cascades through the late afternoon/early evening
increasing rates of .25-.33", perhaps occasionally reaching .5"/hr
at the peaks. The depth of warm air will result in freezing
levels lifting above all but the highest peaks. This has a
combination of those high rates but also rain upon snow.=20
Temperatures are not going to be significantly over freezing, so
melt may be a bit slow, but will contribute to run-off. Soil
saturation values are very high (or even 100% due to snow pack),
so much of the water from rainfall will run-off too increasing
potential for above average stream flow but not likely to rise
fast enough for rapid-rise/flash flooding.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7u5LhiU2H0T2GdeZ8a0qufxxSFrwQchurSmg0fp_8FpNZ0CDyOeeFItU1Ry6XEvV_GMI= UmW2gV4K632D0NIAFMNNgdA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SEW...

ATTN...RFC...NWRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 49132248 49112172 48982125 48322116 47602148=20
47452178 48022208 48152248 48042298 47812312=20
47472321 47272338 47212383 47322417 47592451=20
47942466 48362485 48432447 48222370 48432313=20
48772304 49092285=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232206
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-240400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0079
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
605 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Areas affected...Western & Middle TN...Northern MS...Northwest
AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232205Z - 240400Z

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of intense showers/thunderstorms with
rates of 1-1.5"/hr may allow for a few streets of repeating cells
and 2-3" localized totals nearing/exceeding FFG values resulting
in possible widely scattered incidents of low-end flash flooding,
particularly near urban centers.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a strong, compact short-wave
across N IL/S WI moving quickly east with a lower-scale
wave/mid-level trough accelerating eastward into the upper-Ohio
River Valley. This is accompanied by a strong upper-level jet
streak that has rounded the base of the main trof with solid right
entrance ageostrophic response across the lower Ohio Valley
providing strong divergence along and south into the Tennessee
River Valley.=20

Surface and LLJ has responded with increasing Southwesterly flow
fluxing higher theta-E air northward with Tds into the upper 50s
and lower 60s. Filtered insolation and mid-level steepening lapse
rates have made the area modestly unstable with MLCAPE nosing
across W KY into W TN over 1000-1250 J/kg, along and ahead of
solid cold front. Additionally, GOES-E Vis and sfc to boundary
layer streamlines suggest a confluence axis between deeper Gulf
moisture from the Western Gulf and return from the central/eastern
Gulf becoming increasingly confluent across central MS to NE MS
into Middle TN. With conditionally unstable air, this has been
sufficient to break out weaker but slowly increasing convective
activity across Middle TN... with some convection/flux convergence
supporting rates of .5-.75", which is expected to increase over
the next few hours. Forward propagation is likely to limit
overall totals with any individual cell, but could be stage
setting for later development.

As the line expands, cells will have capability for
back-building/flanking line development that is probable to align
with strong/fast steering flow resulting in some accidental
training. However, further upstream cold front is starting to
advance with solid 90 degree convergence along the leading edge
southwesterly LLJ/moisture plume. Cells will expand in coverage
and width and should be capable of 1-1.5"/hr rates as they
advance, with similar very fast (40+ kt) forward speed, likely
limiting overall rainfall totals. Hence, any flash flooding
potential will require these cells to traverse areas already
affected by 1-2" totals with earlier rounds. If so, 2-4hr spot
totals of 2-3" are possible. This is in range of the lower FFG
values over the TN valley (1.5-2"/hr & 2-3"/3hr). As such, a few
widely scattered instances of flash flooding are considered
possible particularly after 00z and in/near urban settings.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5qS4wqKO0XRxof-tpw08nyp5JjttqzzEKkAI-JFPw30tXIEzHdpdsUsi4_LyUGI1LFvE= ooBcRUDKd0DxmmOzIwDWIKM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36488810 36478551 35158602 34288698 33908848=20
34009006 34279071 34979061 35638953=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232256
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-240430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0080
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
656 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Areas affected...Northern LA...Southern AR...Central MS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232300Z - 240430Z

SUMMARY...Strong moisture flux convergence with initial convective
development will allow for very quick moisture loading and strong
downdrafts capable of quick 2"/hr rates (15-minute totals of
1-1.5" psbl). As cold front moves east, interaction with older
warm sector convection may allow for localized repeating/training
and spot totals of 2-3" in 1-2hrs resulting in possible flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible/10.3um and RADAR mosaic denote
scattered destabilization occurring across the warm sector mainly
along the Lower Mississippi River Valley at the intersection of
the nose of instability axis (2500-3000 J/kg) of MLCAPE that
extends from the Heart of Texas into northeast LA and the nose of
the deepest sfc to 850mb moisture core (LPW of .8-.9") across
south-central LA into northeast LA. This boundary layer moisture
is quickly advancing northward toward a southward pressing/well
defined (steep isentropes) that is bisecting AR from NE to SW.=20
These cells are expected to be slower moving but with steering
more northward toward the frontal zone before effective bulk shear
increases due to stronger flow aloft across the Delta Region into
the Bootheel of MO. The collision of the air masses is likely to
result in rapid convective development along the front from NW MS
across S AR into N LA and eastern TX mainly in the 01-02z time
frame. There has been solid signal throughout the day toward this
time frame, but trend in the HRRR is a bit earlier and more
focused resulting in very strong moisture flux loading to the
line. Stronger mid-level dry air will likely aid stronger
downdrafts due to mixing but given loading is expected to have
heavy rainfall totals in quick sub-hourly amounts.=20=20

Experimental HRRR 15-min estimates 1-1.25" at onset around 0130z
become near 1.75" by 02-03z across N LA. Hourly totals of 2-2.5"
seem plausible given weaker overall steering before cold
front/outflow boundaries begin to organize and advance eastward.=20
While soil moisture is about 45-55% (in all but the braided
portions of the MS River...65+% there), this is running in the
10-15th percentile, suggesting upper-soils may initially not allow
much infiltration). Still, the spotty/smaller areal coverage may
limit the overall magnitude of flash flooding suggesting highly focused/localized at least initially across S AR/N LA for spotty
possible flash flooding. It is only later toward 04-06z with
some organization and potential west to east training that
localized totals may reach 2-4" through 06z. 18z HREF and recent
HRRR runs support the best probability to be in proximity to the
AR/LA/MS intersection and points east-northeastward. Confidence
is increasing toward possible scattered incidents of flash
flooding through this time period before cells become too
scattered/progressive generally after 06z, but will continue to
monitor trends closely.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7hIGogkyekcaPFZ5mQuNuFDncu-1T3xDaKXSDtqWIBkgl9Xr33WqK0aQHxJBgQFIzTQH= TN2pU1KMFLkxjA2r89twVmg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34389006 34318925 34248863 33868836 33378837=20
32958857 32398922 32039070 31829179 31709325=20
31989383 32779367 33569269 34099146=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240421
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-241020-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0081
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1221 AM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Areas affected...northern LA into central MS and western AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240420Z - 241020Z

Summary...Periods of training thunderstorms may produce areas of
isolated to widely scattered flash flooding through 10Z across
portions of northern LA, central MS and western AL. Peak rainfall
rates between 1-3 in/hr and spotty totals of 2-4 inches are
expected through 10Z.

Discussion...04Z regional radar imagery showed a WSW to ENE line
of thunderstorms that extended from northern LA into northern AL.
This line formed earlier within an axis of pre-frontal confluence
and has since become the dominant area of convection across the
Lower Mississippi Valley. Farther north, closer to the cold front
itself, were a few scattered thunderstorms, mainly located in TN.
04Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed the environment from northwestern
AL to northern LA contained 500 to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE (highest to
the west over northern LA) and 1.2 to 1.5 inches of PWAT.

Expectations are for the line of storms to continue advancing
southeastward, ahead of the cold front and along the leading edge
of rain-cooled outflow which has since formed behind the advancing
line. While storm motion should remain progressive and not pose a
significant threat for flash flooding, the environment is, and
will continue to be, capable of producing 0.5 to 1.0 inches of
rain in 15 minutes given forecasts of lingering instability over
the next several hours. Where convective orientation matches the
mean steering flow from the WSW, training will produce 1-2 in/hr
rates, perhaps exceeding 2 inches in an hour. The result will be
spotty 2-4 inches of additional rainfall through 10Z, although the
higher end of that scale is considered a much lower probability of
occurrence. Given relatively high flash flood guidance values
(especially over southern portions of the MPD threat area), any
areas of flash flooding that develop will likely be tied to areas
of poor drainage, particularly those of urban nature.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5iNlAJLMPBL0LowdHFEYBBf6NSLZE3NmvkpPJCf1XN80ciwOnFlAfZocorpASxeUuuTZ= 5vLHHIRe69SoHcrcizDE3oM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MEG...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33898746 33168677 32388762 31658960 31399127=20
31559306 32459350 32829180=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241300
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-241659-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0082
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Areas affected...coastal Mississippi, southeastern Louisiana, far
southwestern Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241259Z - 241659Z

Summary...A couple of linear convective complexes are merging and
could pose an isolated flash flood threat over the next 2-3 hours
from New Orleans Metro eastward through Mobile, AL.

Discussion...Radar mosaic imagery depicts a couple of linear
convective complexes across the discussion area: 1) extending
along an east-west axis from near Mobile, AL to just north of
Baton Rouge, LA that was moving slowly southward and 2) a
faster-moving complex approaching an axis from Hammond to Morgan
City, LA. The orientation of these complexes has fostered some
localized training/repeating, with 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates noted
per MRMS on a spotty/localized basis. These rates are generally
below FFG thresholds, although some concern exists that as the
convective complexes continue to merge, areas of 1+ inch/hr rain
rates could materialize across more urbanized areas of the region
(generally from New Orleans proper to Mobile) and cause
spotty/isolated flash flooding to materialize. This threat
appears to be highest along the Mississippi Gulf Coast over the
next couple hours.

Both of the linear complexes are progressive enough to suggest
that most of this morning's isolated flash flood threat should end
during the 16Z/11am CDT hour.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_sSfTvyit0fsLPPkcLyhhxiqZLlLuSS5ctoiw9pr19Q5N0fWB7y1XZrpyltdpsig9m2E= 5St-nugHTgro9SwwZt9Ep34$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 31488818 30878748 30398748 29798898 29369018=20
29539131 30369107 31189086 31448943=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251826
FFGMPD
FLZ000-260025-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0083
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Areas affected...Southeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251825Z - 260025Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms expanding over southeast
FL may result in some urban flash flooding over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery in
conjunction dual-pol radar shows the development and expansion of
heavy shower and thunderstorm activity over southeast FL, with an
emphasis on Miami-Dade County. Cooling cloud tops are noted in a
southwest to northeast fashion from over and west of Homestead and
stretching northeast into the Miami metropolitan area.

A combination of a front settling gradually south down the FL
Peninsula coupled with localized seabreeze convergence near the
urban corridor will facilitate additional convective development
this afternoon. A moderately moist and unstable environment is
already in place with MLCAPE values of 1500+ J/kg and PWs of 1.5+
inches. This coupled with 30 to 40+ kts of effective bulk shear
will favor slow-moving and relatively organized convective cells
capable of producing rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour.
Some localized storm totals going through early this evening of 3
to 5 inches will be possible.

While FFGs are very high, these rains are expected to impact
portions of the highly urbanized/populated urban corridors from
Homestead northward up to Fort Lauderdale and possible even West
Palm Beach as the activity further expands in coverage. As a
result, a concern for urban flash flooding will exist over the
next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6fezOdQZdpWSnZPkSSd7WX3xSI_FOMCiYoS75JXtNKoRd0-L7Phtqc4hqKdVD0huC7Z9= 2lNVrYtUewlHRm9qsaj5Hk4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 26988032 26918004 25998000 25398033 25278061=20
25448082 25938057 26498039=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260430
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-261015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0084
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1229 AM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Areas affected...south-central OK into northern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260428Z - 261015Z

SUMMARY...Repeating and training of thunderstorms from south
central OK into portions of northern TX may produce localized
flash flooding later tonight. Potential for 2 to 4 inches along
with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr (locally higher) will exist
through 10Z.

DISCUSSION...A combination of GOES East infrared satellite and
regional radar imagery at 04Z showed widely scattered
thunderstorms from northeast of DAL to south of OKC. Cloud tops
were generally warming over TX but new development was occurring
across south-central OK where low to mid-level moisture transport
was allowing for generally weak instability to build northward
from the Red River, north of a quasi-stationary front analyzed
over northern TX. The new development was occurring at the nose of
a 30-35 kt 850 mb low level jet as sampled by VAD wind data at
KDYX and KFWS, about 10-15 kt stronger than F000 and F001 hour RAP
guidance suggests.

Nocturnal strengthening of the low level jet is expected to
continue through ~06Z with a max axis between SPS and GYI,
supporting the overrunning of the quasi-stationary front. A
relatively small pocket of elevated instability between 500 and
1500 J/kg is forecast by the RAP to be in place from between I-20
and I-40 on either side of I-35 over the next several hours, but
should lower in magnitude toward 12Z.

Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage
over south-central OK over the next 1-3 hours, with mean steering
flow aligned roughly parallel to the surface front, repeating
cells along with instances of training are expected. However, any
clustering of thunderstorms may result in more of a southward
propagation of cells into the inflow layer. Sufficient speed shear
exists for some organized thunderstorms and elements of training
heavy rainfall could result in rates of 1-2 in/hr, though earlier
convection near Dallas in southern Collin County was responsible
for ~1 inch of rain in 15 minutes, so 1-2 inches in less than 1
hour will certainly be possible tonight. Dry antecedent conditions
and high flash flood guidance should limit any flash flood
concerns to urban areas or otherwise sensitive, poorly draining
locations. 2-4 inches will be possible on a localized basis
through 10Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7yir3J56soxSS-WTlk0RRuhnRmeEBBntW-T8chuI9ezLR2FYrpUV5D0v_OxihHksyxMk= SwLYT73PzJO9zk3vZN3nmsQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35359778 34899659 34079496 33429390 32739422=20
32789547 33469733 34739858 35199836=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261715
FFGMPD
TXZ000-262315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0085
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
115 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Areas affected...South-Central and Deep South TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261715Z - 262315Z

SUMMARY...Developing and expanding clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms are expected through this afternoon. Very heavy
rainfall rates and locally slow cell-motions will support an
increasing flash flood threat.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E satellite imagery shows a
well-defined mid-level shortwave trough ejecting east across
northwest mainland Mexico which will begin to cross the Rio Grande
Valley by later today. Increasingly divergent flow aloft ahead of
these height falls along with some smaller scale vort energy will
be gradually overspreading the lower Rio Grande Valley and
adjacent areas of south-central TX and will be interacting with an
increasingly moist and unstable airmass.

MLCAPE values over much of the region are already locally on the
order of 1500 to 2000 J/kg, with PWs of 1.5 to 1.75 inches.
Persistent low-level south-southeast flow will continue to bring
moisture up across much of southern TX in general going through
the afternoon hours, and the latest CIRA-ALPW and MIMIC-TPW data
sets show notable concentrations of deeper and more anomalous
moisture advecting into the lower Rio Grande Valley ahead of the
upstream mid-level height falls/shortwave energy.

This will set the stage for developing and expanding clusters of
heavy showers and thunderstorms going through the afternoon hours.
The convective cells in this moistening environment should become
increasingly efficient and will be capable of producing very high
rainfall rates considering the level of instability and some
uptick in updraft helicity parameters.

The 12Z HREF guidance suggests the stronger and more organized
convective cells may be capable of producing 2 to 3 inch/hour
rainfall rates. A combination of multicell and some isolated
supercell structures are generally expected to evolve over time,
and some of the cells that become more deeply rooted are expected
to potentially become very slow-moving with cell-motions a bit to
the right of the deeper layer mean flow. This will support some
locally enhanced rainfall totals, with some rainfall totals by
early this evening of 3 to 5+ inches possible.

Antecedent conditions are very dry, but with such high rainfall
rates and potential for slow cell-motions, the threat for flash
flooding will be increasing with time. Additional MPDs will likely
be required this evening to further address the excessive rainfall
threat going into the overnight hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4aPFlnQ_WWQm9hc6kTt-06RSX7IdGQfndG2Vwt8UA4aR2YV7FEW9O1vcMKua9pksn0_Q= EPjdyCFI2HiIQV1Rz1KgAYQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 29289749 28919687 28229668 27529713 27149726=20
26709731 26009720 25929757 26109820 26369895=20
26729931 27479964 27839989 28240022 28800007=20
29279882=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262319
FFGMPD
TXZ000-270518-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0086
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
719 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Areas affected...portions of south Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 262318Z - 270518Z

Summary...Areas of heavy rainfall continue to move slowly across
the discussion area, with redevelopment of deep/intense convection
noted along/just west of the Rio Grande recently. Flash flood
potential (locally significant) should continue through 05Z/11p
CDT and likely beyond.

Discussion...Over the past 6 hours, scattered to numerous
thunderstorm activity has produced areas of 1-5 inch rainfall
amounts - highest northwest of Corpus Christi and northwest of
McAllen. Prior dry conditions and high FFGs suggested that these
rainfall totals have likely resulted only minimal impacts so far,
though wetting soils should gradually result in the region
becoming more susceptible to flash flooding as additional rainfall
develops across the region tonight.

Meanwhile, radar/satellite mosaic imagery indicates
redeveloping/strengthening convection along and either side of the
Rio Grande Valley, with additional strengthening storms located
just north of Corpus Christi. Wind fields aloft have strengthened
across the discussion area in tandem with better ascent/lift,
which is the likely culprit for the recent increase in convective
coverage. Increased wind shear has enabled a few of the
convective structures toexhibit right/deviant motion with speeds
as slow as 5-10 knots and rain rates exceeding 2 inches/hr.

Over time, concern exists that convection near the Rio Grande
could grow upscale into one or more convective complexes. These
complexes will move very slowly while continuing to exhibit
embedded rotation and occasional cell mergers that should enhance
rain rates. Localized areas of 3-5 inch rainfall totals are
expected, and significant flash flooding could become a great
concern if higher rain rates were to materialize in
sensitive/urbanized portions of the discussion area.

A secondary concern for upscale growth/backbuilding exists
near/just north of Corpus Christi where low-level confluence
exists on the northern extent of 20-25 kt 850mb flow. A few of
these areas have already experienced 2-5 inch rainfall totals
today. Additional rainfall could result in flash flooding
especially if a more persistent convective band could become
established.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6rl1j1YZhZDJqe53V_RjJH2MXwSfghCpBfsOtGddV2TNxyeRFOEiI-lCNUsmSupXuQq2= kaxU-Zb1wQ7Hr3gbZt1RxVU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 30599832 30329724 29809654 29259617 28569631=20
27869674 27099719 26499730 26349770 26379853=20
26649920 27329952 28049993 28730053 29050080=20
29620131 30180112 30559991=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270511
FFGMPD
TXZ000-271100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0087
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
111 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Areas affected...Deep South Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270515Z - 271100Z

SUMMARY...Highly uncertain convective environment with ample
moisture, persistence of moderate to heavy rainfall may result in
possible localized flash flooding potential through early morning.

DISCUSSION...A very complex dynamic environment remains across
much of southern Texas this evening. An elongated mid-level
trough axis exists generally along 30N with multiple weaker
vorticity rolls ebbing and shearing with influence of changing
lower-level moisture/instability field feeding back through
convective feed-back and latent heat release. WV suite denotes
favorable right entrance ascent pattern with anticyclonic curved
transverse banding features moving downstream into E TX/N LA;
while left exit favorable divergence ascent pattern is expected to
replace and further support indirect thermal circulation and back
low level flow from southeast to easterly to strengthen isentropic
ascent, perhaps triggering additional development as noted west of
Zapata county along the western moisture gradient at 700-500mb and
traced well in the CIRA LPW layers. It can be also noted the new
convection is ascending along the veered sfc to 850mb and then
further 850mb to 700mb from southeast to south-southwest,
respectively. Additionally, RADAR and SWIR loop suggest a weak
MCV from older convection just west of NW Webb county, moving east
may be affording additional strengthening of the southerly turning
of the winds.

Overall, the more southerly flow intersects with the dying
outflow/convective line across south Texas, that has laid out
fairly orthogonal to the strengthening low level flow. Cell
motions will be more northward, though this boundary and the
effective bulk shear in the 35-40kt range is suggestive of greater
cell organization for enhancing low level moisture flux into the broadening/rotating updrafts. Rapid refresh models like the
RAP/HRRR have started a trend toward this convective mode, which
in turn, trends to increased longevity. Overall deep layer
moisture remains solid with .75-1", sfc to 850mb LPW values along
the Lower Rio Grande, over-topped with .4-.6" in 850-700mb, though
hints of some dry air mixing along that western gradient of dry
air pressing eastward may result in some entrainment, but should
also aid in steepening lapse rates for increasing some instability
for deeper/stronger updrafts, though proximity to modest 700-500mb
moisture allows for the total column to remain near or slightly
above 1.75"; higher to the southeast nearer the Gulf source.=20=20
However, there has been some mixing/overturning from the initial
convection to leave the instability field more scattered and
pocketed in nature; likely resulting in some uncertainty on the
persistent vigor of the updrafts. However, there are remains of
1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE mainly south of the River, that should
allow for cells capable of rates over 2"/hr for an hour or so and
scattered within the area of concern.

Cell motions will increase potential for flanking line
development/repeating with a more eastward component for the
stronger/rotating cells and more north-northeastward for weaker
ones. As a result the environment for intersection/repeating is
going into the storm-scale interactions which are notoriously
difficult to assess/forecast and so confidence is not very high in
incidents of flash flooding; especially given the area of best
overlap/signal of heavy rainfall is generally north and across the
rural and naturally higher FFG values of Zapata,Jim Hogg, Brooks,
and Kenedy counties. However, proximity of the boundary further
south may be poorly resolved in the guidance nearer the urban
areas north of the river, and the earlier rainfall in Starr and S
Jim Hogg counties may receive an additional 2-4" locally inducing
flash flooding. All considered, the risk of flash flooding
remains possible through the early morning hours across Deep south
Texas.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4rC0G-FOvh2aQdHX2I-yG6TMcHBTxX2b_Mg8p-FVIsNYVWrN_Jl-BdQzArh3JGCZL1dJ= ROIhuOotL9O3bzRCctJeKlM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27149894 27059845 26849767 26809716 26069705=20
25809737 25999773 25989800 26169857 26389909=20
26749934 27089943=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271422
FFGMPD
TXZ000-271900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0088
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1020 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Areas affected...Lower Rio Grande Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271420Z - 271900Z

SUMMARY...Some expansion of heavy showers and thunderstorms are
expected through this morning and into the early afternoon hours.
Heavy rainfall rates and locally slow cell-motions will foster a
threat for additional flash flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION...A mid-level trough continues to gradually advance
east across the southern High Plains and adjacent areas of
northern mainland Mexico with multiple embedded vort centers seen
in GOES-E IR/WV satellite imagery ejecting out of the base of it
toward the lower Rio Grande Valley.

Radar imagery shows one band of convection that has slowly
progressed through Deep South Texas over the last few hours, with
the core of this activity now situated over far northeast Mexico.
However, there is redevelopment seen farther northwest to the
southeast of Laredo involving Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Starr
Counties. This convection is generally forming along a weak
instability gradient that is also aligned along an inverted
surface trough which is gradually attaining sufficient
baroclinicity to be classified as a weak stationary front.

Despite rather modest instability parameters with MLCAPE values of
500 to 1000 J/kg, there will likely be some gradual recovering of
instability with time across Deep South Texas to the southeast of
this weak frontal zone which will strengthen the overall
instability gradient. This coupled with ejecting vort energy and
the left-exit region of an upper-level jet streak from northern
Mexico across the lower Rio Grande Valley will likely tend to
support and sustain the redeveloping areas of convective activity
with some gradual expansion off to the northeast expected with
time.

PWs are generally in the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range across the area,
and this coupled with the instability should be capable of
favoring convection with 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates going
through the morning and early afternoon hours. The latest hires
CAM guidance is handling the ongoing activity very poorly, so
confidence is generally quite low, but given the latest convective
trends, some additional rainfall totals going through early
afternoon may reach 2 to 4 inches with isolated heavier amounts
not out of the question given slow cell-motions.

Given some of the heavier rainfall from overnight and early this
morning, and thus the moistening up of the soil conditions, these
additional rains over the next several hours may result in some
additional flash flooding concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7yGQbC0BOQX8nuGEbtr0eD5gL0LsuaytCRvB9lG0U3-n6-eCMJWmsg8izXHpTmssRSNH= oPC9bApWRWf4IRsWdzlWu0U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27619834 26959776 26359713 25829719 25959804=20
26459909 27159953 27609918=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271858
FFGMPD
TXZ000-280057-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0089
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Areas affected...Deep South TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 271857Z - 280057Z

SUMMARY...A strong and well-organized QLCS gradually settling down
through Deep South TX will be capable of producing very heavy
rainfall rates and a general likelihood for flash flooding heading
into the early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction with
dual-pol radar shows a well-defined QLCS gradually settling
eastward down across Deep South TX. This convective complex is
being strongly favored by the ejection of left-exit region
upper-level jet dynamics across the lower Rio Grande Valley
downstream of a deeper layer trough crossing northern Mexico and
parts of the southern High Plains.

This energy is also interacting with a quasi-stationary frontal
zone and the pooling of a modestly unstable airmass characterized
by MLCAPE values of near 1000 J/kg. While instability is rather
modest, there is a rather favorable shear environment for a
continuation of organized convection over Deep South TX with
stronger mid-level winds helping to support as much as 40+ kts of
effective bulk shear. Some additional uptick in diurnal heating
over the next few hours should support some additional boundary
layer destabilization and this coupled with a convergent and moist
low-level south-southeasterly jet of 30 to 40 kts should support
convection with high rainfall rates capable of reaching 2 to 3
inches/hour with the stronger storms. In fact, the latest
CIRA-ALPW data shows a notable surge/wave of higher PWs/moisture
concentrated in the SFC/850 mb layer lifting northwest out of the
Bay of Campeche and taking aim on Deep South TX. Speed convergence
associated with this in conjunction with the implied stronger
moisture transport will further enhance the rainfall rate
potential over the next few hours.

The 12Z HREF guidance along with numerous runs of the HRRR
continue to struggle with the details and evolution of the ongoing
convective activity more regionally over southern TX. Accounting
for the current activity, the HRRR is closest from a convective
mode/object perspective, but is way too slow with its evolution.
Basically the HRRR 00Z to 06Z/Fri QPF signal is likely to occur
more over the next 6-hours based on the latest satellite and radar
trends.

High rainfall rates and rather slow cell-motions with the QLCS
evolution should favor additional rainfall amounts of as much as 3
to 5 inches, and especially where any transient areas of
cell-training can occur. Given the wet antecedent conditions from
earlier heavy rainfall, these additional rains are likely to cause
additional areas of flash flooding heading into the early evening
hours, and this will include the Brownsville vicinity.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9lJw7qhr-YditUF01Jsskdf0F1HyOx-VligRuIWX7GghXyGUKavp5zBbEsD-Qg8grHcs= y4kj0RwOjuo95XTSHkADn00$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27509751 27429722 26879728 25919702 25739713=20
25959801 26199884 26569899 27159840=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280038
FFGMPD
TXZ000-280636-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0090
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
837 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Areas affected...south Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280036Z - 280636Z

Summary...Locally significant flash flood potential should
continue through 06Z/1am CDT.

Discussion...A very slow-moving cluster of deep, intense
convection continues to make progress across Deep South Texas
while producing multiple hours of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates. These
rates have falling in populated areas near McAllen and Harlingen,
prompting significant impacts.=20

Radar mosaic imagery indicates the leading edge of a cold pool
extending from just north of Brownsville west-southwestward along
and just south of the Rio Grande River. Meanwhile, mesoanalyses
and satellite imagery indicate renewed convective development
across portions of northeastern Mexico associated with a mid-level
shortwave trough centered near 27.3N, 101.4W. Steep lapse rates
aloft were located just west of the ongoing complex and much of
northern Mexico as well.

While the heavy to extreme rain rates currently being observed
just north of Brownsville may shift offshore over the next couple
hours, the combination of a trailing/lingering outflow boundary
near the Rio Grande and upstream ascent/instability from
aforementioned lapse rates should result in a continued threat of
at least elevated convection over the next 3-6 hours. The
heaviest rainfall threat will be modulated by the southward shift
of the outflow boundary - should this boundary drift back to the
north into south Texas, a renewed threat for 2+ inch/hr rain rates
could materialize and raise continued, significant flash flood
potential. At least areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates are expected
with deep convection given the upstream instability and lift -
even with elevated convective activity. Ground conditions are
inundated with significant impacts being reported amid near-zero
FFGs from Harlingen westward to Rio Grande City. Additional
rainfall will likely exacerbate those impacts.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5p028T9sL6KQXZnanMNZMTqQdWg8mAvmVIXWa_cm3sm3lHjz3ELz06uE-otCSh8jSDmD= 0U54iXplbl5S9GWvSUC6cGI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27539856 27469744 26169691 25879768 26469918=20
27129935=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280457
FFGMPD
TXZ000-281000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0091
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1256 AM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Areas affected...Lower Rio Grande Valley and Lower Texas Gulf
Coast...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280500Z - 281000Z

SUMMARY...Strong MCV, providing ascent for another round of strong thunderstorms capable of 2"+/hr rates to further compound ongoing
significant flash flooding across the Rio Grande Valley. Heavy
rainfall likely to expand northward toward Corpus Christi urban
areas over the next few hours as well, with possible flash flooding

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows strong vorticity center/MCV currently
along the south-southwest side of the larger scale stationary
upper-level low crossing over the Rio Grande into Webb county.=20
These height-falls have once again backed the low level flow off
the very moist/unstable western Gulf that had filtered across
Tamaulipas and into eastern Nuevo Leon state in Mexico. CIRA LPW
shows surface to boundary layer moisture nearing 1" fluxed on
30-35kts toward the flanking line, allowing for increased
instability of 1000-1500 J/kg (narrow and skinny profiles) while
this is leading to confluence through the ascent layer in the
850-500mb layer. CIRA LPW suggests an additional third to half
inch and quarter to third of an inch in those mid-levels to
support overall depth of 1.75 to near 2" along the Gulf coast. So
once again, strong moisture flux convergence aided by unstable air
has developed into a squall line with cells likely to increase
from 1.25 to 1.5-2"/hr as the line reaches deeper moisture further
east. Additionally, the southerly moist flow is expanding
scattered isentropically forced cells between the exiting
convective cluster and the approaching line. These more scattered
cells will be a tad shallower, but with solid flux should be still
prolific in rainfall capability even if more scattered/random in nature...adding .5-1" prior to the main line. This WAA appears to
be trending northward toward relatively drier locations and may
start to stall/flatten to southwest steering as it nears the coast
across N Kenedy, Kleberg and Nueces county. Spots of 2-3" are
possible across this northern area that may initiate some
localized flash flooding concerns, especially near the Corpus
Christi urban areas that are particularly prone to intense rates.

Additionally, upper level jet diffluence remains extreme across
far southeast TX and the lower Rio Grande Valley with 60-70kt
speed max jet lifting northward across south Texas, while the core
of the sub-tropical jet streak is fairly flat (west to east)
across northeast Mexico into the Gulf. This is over 90 degrees of
diffluence maintaining solid evacuation of convection as it moves
eastward to areas already flooded. This should also allow for
slowing of forward propagation as well as with strengthening of
the low level inflow for flanking line back-building across the
Lower Rio Grande Valley. Additional 3-5" totals across already
flooded areas; likely to maintain flash flooding conditions with
some significant flash flooding/emergency conditions to be
possible with this next round. Localized totals over 10" are
likely to become reality across a broader area of lower Rio Grande Valley.=20=20

While it is hopeful that after this MCV/forcing wave moves
through, the environment will clear out; however, there remains
quite a bit of uncertainty, as south-southeasterly flow of the
western Gulf is likely to be maintained through the peak of the
diurnal surge after prior to day break (08-10z). Intersection
with lingering outflow boundaries may still trigger additional
development, but will update the MPD later this morning to address
this concern.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-N-vDMrM6XC5gGT-Vh-2RmbLUIA-IWY7v3ZuEyPzRzoDnmQUMCzTFhqN2TzdpDopnGwJ= SVcWJD7TLFVF_FGg6OeyNKk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 28039762 27789713 27029738 26529721 25969710=20
25799726 25919782 26109845 26259881 26489914=20
26749915 27249867 27579831=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280912
FFGMPD
TXZ000-281400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0092
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
511 AM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Areas affected...Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280915Z - 281400Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of showers/thunderstorms repeating
across already flooded locations. Additional 1-3" totals
possible, continuing flooding conditions through day break.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts core of MCV/vorticity center
lifting north-northeast across South Texas with a trailing
shortwave rounding out the bottom of the filling mid to upper
level trough that has been persistent across central TX over the
past few days. In the process the progressive squall line has
moved into the northwest Gulf, but with some weak DPVA upstream,
low-level winds have returned to south/southeast from the surface
to boundary layer off the western Gulf. GOES-E 3.9um SWIR loop
showed low level stratus at the leading edge of the return
moisture, modest instability field lifted north but along
weakening winds into the 15-25kts range from 925mb VWP in the
area. Veered flow across 850-700mb with weak WAA allowed for some
convection to refocus and build across Hildalgo to W Cameron
county. Weaker flux of still ample deep layer moisture of 1.75-1.9
Total PWat and 1000 J/kg, support rates up to 1.5"/hr but given
the veered steering flow aloft will once again allow for cells to
train ENE across significantly flooded areas with an additional
1-3" totals expected, likely to maintain ongoing flooding
conditions.

Hi-Res CAMs continue to struggle with the placement and timing of
the evolution of the convection. However, early HRRR runs showed
a similar evolution through the Lower Rio Grande Valley but had
been about 2 to 2.5 hours too slow with the timing of the squall
line and the ongoing redevelopment. Still, the evolution seems to
be the best handle on the situation, as such there most recent run
has backed off a tad, suggesting the convergence and ascent
pattern may be weakening with greater surface to boundary layer
winds turning eastward across the Northwest Gulf over the next 3-5
hours finally giving the area of concern a break from these
repeated rounds. Given the run to run variability and poor
performance from other CAMs, not fully confident that additional
convection may maintain at the trailing edge of the low level
confluence of the larger cyclonic circulation as it lifts
northeast across Northeast Texas later this morning as hinted by
the recent RAP runs.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9r039ww4ec7ioPgjc0BaxaDY5z-eJ8qZZfvOl-7Ncf1gzzlQ41znwbiDnB1-tJWM694W= ENbXJdwOluvoDuKnE-LEeFI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 26969773 26889732 26519720 25989709 25799730=20
25969771 25979800 26129846 26339890 26659872=20
26909818=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281812
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-290010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0093
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Areas affected...Eastern TX...Far Western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281810Z - 290010Z

SUMMARY...A localized threat for some flash flooding will exist
going through the early evening hours from heavy showers and
thunderstorms that may train over the same location.

DISCUSSION...The early afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
shows an increasingly expansive CU/TCU field over eastern TX as
vigorous mid-level shortwave/vort energy lifting northeastward
interacts with a surface trough and the pooling of modest boundary
layer instability. MLCAPE values are on the order of 500 to 1000
J/kg with a seasonably moist environment characterized by PWs of
1.5 to 1.75 inches.

Radar does show a band of showers and thunderstorms organizing in
a general south to north fashion over far eastern TX, and as
additional diurnal heating/solar insolation contributions to
further boundary layer destabilization this afternoon, there
should be some additional expansion of convection which should
tend to become locally well-organized given the presence of 30 to
40+ kts of effective bulk shear. This will include a convective
threat to the middle and upper TX coast and the greater
Houston/Galveston metropolitan area.

The 12Z HREF guidance shows 50 to 70 percent probabilities of 1 to
2 inch/hour rainfall rates with the storms this afternoon, and
some localized exceedance of 2 inch/hour rates will be possible
especially for areas of far eastern TX just west of the LA border
where the axis of stronger instability and relatively stronger
surface moisture convergence is expected to be focused.

Given concerns for some localized cell-training, some storm total
amounts by 00Z (7PM CDT) may reach as high as 3 to 5 inches. FFG
values across the region are rather high, but the HREF guidance
does suggest some low end probabilities of exceedance which
suggests a localized concern for flash flooding with an emphasis
generally on the more urbanized locations.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4DhSf5ZuFUL6CbDwtUmz1GNmJBEXHXQ-9JjNoS51qiaJZGo1hr3MPnBVPVysW1AFUPks= qgc95sChMxDL4DpcXmOg54I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33089412 32769304 31189288 29729373 28859497=20
28499554 28399633 28699661 29309630 30539529=20
32419473=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 292006
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-300005-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0094
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Areas affected...Southeast LA...Far Southwest MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292005Z - 300005Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expanding and intensifying
over south-central LA. While a fair amount of uncertainty remains,
training cells with maximum hourly rainfall rates of 2-3"/hour
will support an increasing flash flood threat (possibly
significant) this afternoon.

Discussion...Radar and Day Cloud Phase imagery this afternoon
continues to depict expanding thunderstorm thunderstorm coverage
along the Central Gulf Coast. As this activity matures, radar
estimates hourly rainfall rates of 1.8-2.8"/hour are occurring
within the most intense cores.

This uptick in coverage and intensity is likely in response to 1)
increasing insolation across the region, 2) the approach of an
offshore MCV, and 3) a broad north-south oriented 850 hPa
convergence axis. Near the convection, mesoanalysis estimates of
1500 J/kg MLCAPE (in a saturated and "skinny" profile), PWAT of
1.6-1.7", and 20 kts of effective bulk shear suggest cells should
maintain enough organization to realize the moist and unstable
environment. Over the next several hours, expect areas downstream
to fill in where cumulus is showing increasing increasing
development, and train as the slow moving forcing aligns with the
mean flow.

With all of this said, there remains a fair amount of uncertainty
amongst the CAM suite with how the convection evolves through
tonight. However, through 0z, the 12z HREF suite depits increasing probabilities of 6 hour QPF exceeding the 10 to 100 year ARI,
generally focused over Southeast LA (45% and 35%, respectively).
This suggests an increasing threat of flash flooding over the next
several hours, some of which could be significant -- particularly
over vulnerable urban areas.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4iMuny3Z9uhyr0FEWrVQznNFwuihUBrpiMIrTar7riSpSiYdcX7nLFxYV2E5SXbPNclD= 7SBwEKFtnwAKwmP6IJ8k8CY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 31069021 30728892 29788903 29539047 29699186=20
30059252 30619249 30989160=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 292014
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-300005-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0094...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
414 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Corrected for Typos in discussion

Areas affected...Southeast LA...Far Southwest MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292005Z - 300005Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expanding and intensifying
over south-central LA. While a fair amount of uncertainty remains,
training cells with maximum hourly rainfall rates of 2-3"/hour
will support an increasing flash flood threat (possibly
significant) this afternoon.

Discussion...Radar and Day Cloud Phase imagery this afternoon
continues to depict expanding thunderstorm coverage along the
Central Gulf Coast. As this activity matures, radar estimates
hourly rainfall rates of 1.8-2.8"/hour are occurring within the
most intense cores.

This uptick in coverage and intensity is likely in response to 1)
increasing insolation across the region, 2) the approach of an
offshore MCV, and 3) a broad north-south oriented 850 hPa
convergence axis. Near the convection, mesoanalysis estimates of
1500 J/kg MLCAPE (in a saturated and "skinny" profile), PWAT of
1.6-1.7", and 20 kts of effective bulk shear suggest cells should
maintain enough organization to realize the moist and unstable
environment. Over the next several hours, expect areas downstream
to fill in where cumulus is showing increasing development, and
train as the slow moving forcing aligns with the mean flow.

With all of this said, there remains a fair amount of uncertainty
amongst the CAM suite with how the convection evolves through
tonight. However, through 0z, the 12z HREF suite depits increasing probabilities of 6 hour QPF exceeding the 10 to 100 year ARI,
generally focused over Southeast LA (45% and 35%, respectively).
This suggests an increasing threat of flash flooding over the next
several hours, some of which could be significant -- particularly
over vulnerable urban areas.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6kN1J_PuhyzdL6t3BxiCJM0tmiDO1r9tfCNO_aN_IzySBPlID5OHsmsUxQ0XmNE1CnqV= Lrwknf5DeFuAk1hvcUyzpWc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 31069021 30728892 29788903 29539047 29699186=20
30059252 30619249 30989160=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301540
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-301938-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0095
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1138 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...Far Southern MS...Southwest AL...Far Western FL
Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301538Z - 301938Z

SUMMARY...Relatively slow-moving and occasionally backbuilding
areas of very heavy showers and thunderstorms will pose a
localized threat of flash flooding going through the early to
mid-afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a cluster of
cooling convective cloud tops associated with heavy showers and
thunderstorms across portions of far southern MS and stretching
eastward into southwest LA and the western parts of the FL
Panhandle. The convection which has become rather organized over
the last hour is mainly associated with a low-level convergence
axis with proximity of a well-defined instability gradient.

MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg and PWs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches
are in place across the area which are contributing to rainfall
rates reaching upwards of 2 inches/hour with the stronger cells.

Some localized backbuilding of these cells are noted and
especially over parts of Harrison and Jackson Counties in southern
MS. However, stronger convective cells are also slowly evolving
into areas of southwest AL as well. Given the cooling cloud top
trends, there should tend to be some persistence of these cells
over the few hours, and there will be concerns for additional
backbuilding and/or training of cells in the near-term given the
deeper layer mean flow.

The 12Z HREF guidance including some of the recent HRRR guidance
suggests as much as an additional 3 to 4 inches of rain with
locally higher amounts. Given ongoing convective trends and
additional rainfall potential in the near-term, additional
localized areas of flash flooding will be possible and this will
include a threat for some urban impacts rather close to the
Mobile, AL area, and especially areas north and west of here over
the next couple of hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!88WA6OD9oqEFl1w1avYnNz_7N_xsPoUgO-Fdd_HC8nxbBqTxm8EGFiRkDXjP5bVA3q__= ujsuVkTAPp13KcgO-M0TohU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 31378778 31258683 30788654 30458694 30358760=20
30368842 30698898 31138872=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301824
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-302323-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0096
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...Far Southern MS...Southwest AL...Western FL
Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 301823Z - 302323Z

SUMMARY...Very heavy rainfall continues to impact areas of far
southern MS, southwest AL and the western part of the FL
Panhandle. Extremely heavy rainfall rates persisting over the
region with locally backbuilding and training cells will yield
areas of locally significant/considerable flash flooding over the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery continues to show a
cluster of strong cold-topped convection with numerous
overshooting tops over areas of the central Gulf Coast region
extending from far southern MS eastward across southwest AL and
into the western FL Panhandle. The convection continues to be
anchored along a general north/south convergence axis and within a
well-defined instability gradient.

MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg and PWs of 1.5 to 1.75 inches
are in place across the area which coupled with some occasional
mesocyclone activity has been yielding extreme rainfall rates of 2
to 4 inches/hour with the stronger cores. Already there are
Radar-QPE values across parts of Jackson County of 8 to 10 inches
where significant backbuilding of convection has occurred.

Very strong overshooting top activity has yielded some cloud top
temperatures recently to near -70 C and there has been an overall
expansion of convection over the last few hours to include more
areas of southwest AL and the western FL Panhandle. The GOES-E
visible satellite imagery shows some low-level cloud street
activity upstream over southeast LA and southern MS as a
destabilizing boundary layer couples with moist southwest flow.
This low-level feed of moisture and instability should continue to
support the downstream convective clusters, with a favorable
backbuilding environment continuing at least in the short term.

Additional rainfall totals of 3 to 6+ inches are expected given
the very high rainfall rates and convective mode going through
early this evening. The recent HRRR guidance has been supporting
this, and additional areas of flash flooding are likely which will
include locally significant/considerable urban flash flooding
impacts. The Mobile metropolitan area will need to continue to
closely monitor this activity for enhanced rainfall and flash
flooding concerns over the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!97y4yS4B8xvjC4kmwc2NgFDY5G7NE8uDIj7fw--El0wAP1fbMFFFCL-rqA_0jMqNvWPo= HF7za1J1YohLonWGn85qaTM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 31338653 31008611 30598623 30358667 30258801=20
30258931 30748918 31278787=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 310230
FFGMPD
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-310800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0097
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1029 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...Central & Eastern KY...Western & Middle
TN...Northern MS...Northwest AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310230Z - 310800Z

SUMMARY...QLCS starting to have bowing segments that will result
in a few streaks of enhanced moisture convergence and increased
heavy rainfall duration resulting in streaks of 2-4" totals and
possible localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic denotes solid and broadening
squall line across central KY angling back across W TN into far
northeast AR. Maturing bowing segments are starting to arch out
with meso-low/inflections noted in the north near Henry county, N
KY and Christian/Tocd counties in S KY and generally flattening
near the tail of sufficient deeper layer convergence/mid-level
forcing from the exiting shortwave across central IND. Modestly
broad wedge axis of unstable air remains in place along/ahead of
the line with 500 along the Ohio River back to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE
across N MS/W TN attm. Moisture is not particularly deep, through
the layer, but the strength of flux on 40kts of confluent boundary
layer to 850mb flow has resulted in 1.25-1.5" total PWat values.=20
Given the strength of the convergence both in speed and direction
through depth intersecting with outflow boundaries will support
solid rates of 1.5-2"/hr with bulk falling in initial 15 minutes
(HRRR and WoFS sub-hourly rates suggesting 1.25/15 minutes with
.35-.5"/5 minutes rates, respectively).

While the broad post-squall shield precipitation is increasing,
especially further north toward better divergence aloft, overall
totals are likely to be around that 1.5-2" range, which remains
slightly below even 1hr FFG values across KY (which are higher
south). However, given these bowing segments and embedded
inflections are helping to back sfc to boundary layer flow with
oriented outflow boundaries, orthogonal to the flow, isentropic
ascent will increase downstream and increase duration in proximity
of these inflections, allowing for localized 2-3" streaks to form
along the QLCS, as well as the tail end cells where forward
steering flow is weaker across W TN/N MS. WoFS 90th percentile
have some suggestions of totals nearing 4" across N Middle TN,
which seems plausible. Still 3hr totals of 3" would pose possible
flash flooding even into the southern portion of the MPD area of
concern (though 3+ to 4" would make it more probable). As such,
most locations will not see flooding concerns, but there is enough
of a signal and trends to suggest a few streaks will result in
flash flooding through early morning.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Dlp-AeuNUkFkJlNKzpWnEBpHwKhb9-PpUlIRugJipmdYcfc01QVbsKnw8MzjoE4Bx2x= 0ocA-wSkgzmS-6Kn9JWtxOU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38268398 37908305 37108282 36388380 35388543=20
34658724 34338937 34609036 35349034 36128917=20
36708833 37838627 38238537=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 310319
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-310900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0098
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1118 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Texas...Western Louisiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310320Z - 310900Z

SUMMARY...A favorable back-building environment/slow cell
propagation will give way to broader warm advection off the
western Gulf resulting in expanding convective cluster into the
middle overnight period. Rates of 2-2.5"/hr and spots of 3-4"
totals across recently saturated grounds pose possible localized
flash flooding to continue through early morning.=20

DISCUSSION...03z Surface analysis depicts a well defined front
stretching from the Delta region of E AR across toward Texarkana
before sagging south across central TX. A pool of enhanced low
level moisture exists through the Sabine River Valley nosing
toward the frontal zone with Tds in the lower 70s and some return
moisture off the western Gulf supporting 1.5-1.75" total PWats.=20
Aloft, GOES-E WV suite denotes a 3H 90kt speed max tracking across
OK before cyclonically curling northeast across AR/S MO; while the
sub-tropical jet axis dives south across the Rio Grande and
southern TX, providing a strong divergence pattern aloft. This
combination of factors has resulted in a few thunderstorms near a
weak surface to boundary layer low near TYR. While winds are
weak, boundary layer inflow is out of the W and SW per upstream
VWP noting solid inflow and ability of convection to backbuild
over the last hour or so. This is noted well in the cycling
overshooting tops in 10.3um EIR as well, limiting forward
propagation of the heavy rainfall cores. While dry/cooler air
aloft is supporting hail generation, there is ample moisture flux
to support 2"/hr rates; and localized spots of 2-4" are already
starting to be estimated. While not particularly confident due
to edge of the convective domain, recent WoFS solutions suggest
back-building cells may even be capable of 4-6" totals per 50th to
90th percentile totals.=20

The favorable divergence should be slackening over the next 3-5hrs
to reduce this potential back-building. However, this will come
with the diurnal increase in southwesterly flow off the western
Gulf with increased warm-advection after 06-07z. Combined with
eastward approach of stronger shortwave/general height-falls,
convective over-turning is expected further south and east.=20
Moisture flux convergence into the cells will be prolific with
Pwats nearing 2.0" and confluent 25-30kt 850mb flow will support
2-2.5"/hr rates. Slow forward propagation is expected allowing
for spot totals of 3-4". Overall, the area has been quite
saturated with 0-40cm percentiles over 85% per NASA SPoRT and
saturation ratios of 65-80% across the area of concern/convective
development. As such, spots of flash flooding are likewise
considered possible through early morning across W and SW LA.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-SSsD5Z2tjugsUFtSK5xsbjr_lzPqsj0NIZfzcvpF53G9M7ZfEaTLZDve8eAHjDms3-R= wcIumUPH1UlCt6Z7NUBvZ14$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 32589312 32329195 31969154 31139137 30189160=20
29679216 29799335 29749454 30029489 31019526=20
31989506 32529448=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 310713
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-311200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0099
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Areas affected...Northeast LA...Southern AR....Northern MS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310710Z - 311200Z

SUMMARY...Favorable training profile for strong thunderstorms
capable of 2"+/hr rates. Localized totals of 2-4" in 2-3hrs pose
possible localized flash flooding over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and regional RADAR mosaic has shown
consistent strong development that has maintained itself across S
AR, starting to spread downstream into NW MS, with additional
upstream overshooting tops breaking through the cirrus canopy over north-central LA. GOES-E WV and AMV suite shows a strong speed
max starting to round the southeast quadrant of a larger scale
trof through the Ozarks providing solid divergence aloft. RAP
forecasts are expected for the jet to further enhance the
downstream right entrance region across the central MS Valley
maintaining solid divergence across the lower Delta Region into N
MS over the next few hours. At the surface, a slowly forming
surface low along a stalled portion of the main front has locally
backed surface to boundary layer flow tapping enhanced moisture
and unstable airmass out of the MS Valley. Tds in the low 70s and
MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg combined with the convergence downstream of
the surface low will maintain inflow/flux convergence to further
expand convective development over the next few hours. Veering
mid-level flow above the boundary layer is also providing
850-700mb moisture flux from a pool of enhanced moisture upstream
to increase rainfall efficiency and likely limit cold pool
development.

Deep layer steering is also generally parallel to the boundary to
support moderately lengthy axis for training over the next few
hours. As such, a streak of enhanced rainfall with 2-4" totals
should extend from S AR into northern MS. This aligns with a
localized minimum in FFG values along the river and northeastward
where 1/3hr FFG values of 1.5-2" & 2-3" have a solid potential of
been exceeded in spots along the training axis. In the longer
term maintenance of the line of convection will be determined on
upstream development over central LA and points south. If
clusters develop, inflow/flux of moisture/unstable air is likely
to be disrupted, but until then there is a good possibility of an
incident or two of localized flash flooding through early morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5VrUXOTKumSFvhfkvikkPBun-IArAQjVjGr3cr4JLzCa_PXtafYErBxlZM1K4-z67cN7= HutoKbkwkHCH6iwdVu9KehI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34858901 34268829 33388846 32878936 32679035=20
32589159 32609252 32819306 33349308 34369101=20
34729014=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 310826
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-311400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0100
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Areas affected...Southern LA...Far Southeast TX...Southwest MS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310830Z - 311400Z

SUMMARY...Merging clusters with quick 2-3" totals and intersection
with recently flooded/nearly saturated soils pose localized
scattered incidents of possible flash flooding/rapid inundation
through Monday morning.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic shows a mature cluster to wedge
of thunderstorms across the northern Piney Woods of E TX into
north-central LA starting to become increasingly progressive
toward the southeast given strengthening cold pool from earlier
storms as well as height-falls/shortwave trough passing across the
area currently. Additionally, diurnally driven onshore
flow/strengthening of the western Gulf low-level jet has recently
lead to broad WAA isentropic ascent from the Sabine River eastward
into SW LA. Deep layer moisture and confluent low-level flow
accelerating into the approaching line of convection will result
in very strong moisture flux convergence and cell mergers over the
next few hours. Given total PWats of 1.75" and doubling within
the low-level column should increase efficiency to support rates
of 2-2.5"/hr with perhaps an isolated 3"/hr rate total.=20
Southeastward propagation should limit duration, but widely
scattered spots of 2-3" totals are likely to occur.

The random scattered may overlap with recently flooded locations
over the last few days and may reaggravate flooding given limited
infiltration expected. NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil saturation are well
above average (into the 90th percentiles) with ratios above
70-75%. Additionally, the high rates should traverse a few prone
cities of Baton Rouge, Lafayette, and eventually New Orleans and Biloxi/Gulfport toward 14-15z posing urban rapid inundation
flooding possible as well.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9xz7nrpBLMqRrsvQu8ef5bfmpSXxKDiVR4DdcoWegR_lOaNZesiTKZD0Gk5h79RDOxvK= u2Wh1fTxzNuV4S_rVDURKhY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 32229098 32118951 31828886 31338859 30998847=20
30558853 29908895 29388970 29259051 29279145=20
29469234 29719310 29919382 30529429 31199452=20
31629377 32159228=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 310956
FFGMPD
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-311500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0101
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
556 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Areas affected...Northern AL...Northwest
GA...South-central/Southeast TN...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311000Z - 311500Z

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of repeating thunderstorms capable of
2-3" totals may result in isolated incidents of flash flooding
into early morning hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows convective line across
Middle-TN is starting to reduce southeastward progression between
the exiting of the main shortwave across the Great Lakes and the
approaching wave across the Ozarks. Upstream convective complex
is starting to feedback with developing outflow jet with
transverse banding features noted across the Mississippi River
Valley. VWP suite shows 700-500 steering flow is becoming
increasingly parallel to the orientation of the old convective
line across southern TN, while GWX 925-850mb flow shows some
backed inflow obliquely intersecting the old outflow
boundary/convective line across NW to north-central AL; with weak
southerly surface to boundary layer flow proving some flux of
remaining unstable, moist air across northern AL.=20

As such, GOES-E 10.3um and Regional RADAR shows an uptick in
convective vigor along and downstream of the approaching shortwave
energy in N MS into NW AL. Narrow MLCAPE axis of 1000-1750 J/kg
remains across the area of concern to feed the development as well
as maintain approaching stronger cells across N MS. Given the
aforementioned steering flow supporting parallel flow to the
boundary, there is an increasing chance of a few hours of
training/repeating convective cores ahead of the main line and
approaching cold front. While deep layer moisture is more limited
than further upstream, solid low level Tds in the mid to upper 60s
and solid 80-100% RH values through 850-700mb along the axis
should allow for efficient rainfall production with limited loss
to evaporation. So with overall Total PWats around 1.5-1.6";
rates of 1.75"/hr occasionally reaching 2"/hr are possible. With
one to two hours of repeating with very slow southeastward
propagation of the line, spots of 2-3" totals are becoming more
likely.

Soils are not as dry as locations to the south and east, with
average soil saturation around 55-60% through 40cm, FFG values
across the area are near/at the limits of these hourly rates and
totals. However, given the average nature of the soils, perhaps
infiltration will be fairly solid to keep flash flooding risk
limited to typically prone areas and urban locations or isolated
spots over the FFG. All in all, a spot or two of flash flooding
is considered possible, if training conditions are ideal
downstream of MPD 99 in AL/S TN/NW GA.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7GwCPeEscaJZ1Zqv9fhiwj9INUFtuYWHYIRaHLIJDZH2onh38HqSWmsxGEVeG6fcxLCh= evumTvBbd6yd5T5CUqy1eY4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35808471 35668418 35308406 34848426 34478470=20
34088539 33708637 33238811 33738822 34468812=20
34938800 35158752 35408644 35658534=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 312155
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-010354-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0102
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312154Z - 010354Z

Summary...Repeating of cells containing hourly rainfall rates of
1.5-2"/hour at times could support a few instances of flash
flooding this afternoon and evening, mainly over urbanized areas.=20


Discussion...Radar and Day Cloud Phase imagery show convective
initiation is well underway over portions of the northern
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast ahead of a lee-side trough and cold
front. Recent mesoanalysis estimates suggest modest MLCAPE values
of 500-1000 J/kg and 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear have
materialized in the pre-frontal airmass to support increasing
organization as this activity matures.

Over the next few hours, expect thunderstorm coverage to continue
expanding along the lee trough, and beneath increasing
right-entrance region forcing overspreading the region. While
individual cell motions will be progressive (40-45 kts), effective
shear vectors oriented parallel to the lee-trough and front will
support repeating of individual cells as the activity grows
upscale. Eventually, this repeating should be interrupted as cold
pools congeal and the activity begins to accelerate eastward
tonight. Before then, however, the repeating nature of these cells
containing rainfall rates upwards of 1.5-2"/hour could lead to a
few instances of flash flooding. Through 3z, HREF neighborhood
probabilities depict a high (40-80%) chance of at least 2" of
rainfall across the highlighted area, with an embedded 25-30%
chance of at least 3" also noted just north of Philadelphia. While
the area has been quite dry as of late, the this output suggests a
few instances of flash flooding could result this afternoon,
especially given the urban footprint of the region.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8TYDuCfDZBfiekq1vsT_SiVM-YyqKbLPP5cxN4pVFwbXrHsB9SIVAjJwtq8IdauFg6qb= Y9bhklNHxX5D-wvBR6kCJxU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 41567440 41497377 40877383 40167452 39477524=20
38217627 38107744 39157779 40327655 40907560=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020129
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-020725-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0103
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
929 PM EDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Areas affected...northeastern KS into MO River Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020126Z - 020725Z

Summary...Training of cells from SW to NE may result in localized
flash flooding from portions of northeastern KS into the middle MO
River Valley. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr within areas of training
will be common and there will be potential for 2-4 inches through
07Z.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery has shown an increase over the
past 1-2 hours in the number of showers/thunderstorms over the
central Plains, out ahead of a deepening surface low located
between RSL and K82 at 01Z. An already strong 850 mb low level jet
of 40-50 kt was observed over central KS/OK with rapid low level
moisture transport underway into the central Plains, resulting in
a 500 to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE increase over southeastern NE into
eastern KS since 22Z (via SPC mesoanalysis). 00Z blended TPW
imagery showed modest moisture over KS/NE with PW values of 0.7 to
0.9 inches, but these values are likely to continue increasing
through the early overnight with the continued advection of
moisture.

850 mb winds are forecast to notably strengthen through 06Z over
OK/KS to over 70 kt locally, yielding increasing MUCAPE along and
west of the Missouri River, with 1000-2000 J/kg becoming common by
04-06Z via recent RAP forecasts. Increasing ascent ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough near the Four Corners region will be
accompanied by strengthening diffluence and divergence aloft as a
powerful jet stream rounds the base of the trough and ejects out
into the central Plains through 06Z. Convection is expected to
rapidly expand in intensity over central to northeastern KS over
the next 1-2 hours.

In addition, strengthening low level convergence at the nose of
the low level jet is expected to set up over northeastern KS from
SW to NE (consistent RAP signal in 925-850 mb layer), oriented
nearly parallel to the expected mean steering flow of individual
cells, supporting the potential for training. Rainfall rates of
1-2 in/hr will be likely within areas of training and localized
2-4 inch totals through 07Z may support isolated flash flooding.

The HRRR has been persistent in forecasting locations from near
Salina to the MO/NE border for heavy rain. The 00Z WoFS guidance
also indicates these same locations with 40-60 percent
probabilities of exceeding 2" through 06Z. However, dry antecedent
conditions will likely limit flash flood coverage to urban
locations or otherwise locally sensitive terrain.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6yeemBWHM5RMysyHocDa7wgVNVZZRAbQuibsN60gBN61HPIV9Z265xr_1W8F3f1Ii2Q2= jyPFzFboCccPHPuJkOB0sic$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 41129452 40769397 40249387 39349503 38509745=20
38689834 39349822 40279690 40939563=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020629
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-021200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0104
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 AM EDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...Northeast KS...Northwest MO...Far Southeast
NEB...Far Southwest IA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020630Z - 021200Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of training thunderstorms capable of
1.5-1.75"/hr rates and localized totals of 3"+ continuing flash
flooding risk. However, veering flow will result in increasing
forward cell motions limiting overall totals and flooding risk
eastward into N MO.

DISCUSSION...Surface and RAP analysis fields show maturing surface
to 850mb low across south-central NEB continuing to pivot slowly
with expanding warm sector across eastern KS, spreading into
western MO. Pressure falls have been backing warm sector flow/LLJ
proving solid moisture and unstable air advection toward the
frontal zone. Isentropic ascent has been redeveloping
thunderstorms along a WSW to ENE line from Salina to Manhattan
toward St. Joseph. The prolonged isentropic ascent from low level
moisture convergence from the warm sector has resulted in
saturating the deep profile for rainfall rates to reach 1.75-2"/hr
over the last few hours resulting in a streak of 2-4" totals and
long swath of MRMS FLASH unit stream flows reaching 400 cfs/sqmi
from central KS into NE KS. While the warm sector remains
unstable with MLCAPEs of 2000 J/kg, the upper-level shortwave axis
is swinging from weak positive to neutral transferring
cyclogenesis further southwest along the cold front and resulting
in increasing height-falls. As such, LLJ is starting to veer
slightly as the initial surface wave matures/occludes over the
next 2-3 hours reducing orthogonal upglide. As the cold front
advances eastward, there will be increasing convective development
southward with increased forward propagation, reducing duration of
heavy rainfall and capability of saturating the deeper layer
profile.=20

As a result, the best training will still occur across NE KS into
far NW MO with rates of 1.5-1.75"/hr totals expected. Spots
already receiving 1-2" may still reach 3"+ totals. FFG values
decrease steadily east and north with 1.5"/1hr and 2-2.5"/3hrs are
still in the realm of being exceeded in the shorter term though
likely decreasing steadily further eastward into south-central
IA/north-central MO. Strong up/downdrafts capable of a quick
1-1.5" sub-hourly total are still within a low possibility of
inducing some flooding concerns especially near urban centers and
traditionally prone flooding areas, but the progressive nature
should limit it to those locations only through the morning.=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8yLBRa_lL_djpBXbO78aU_pgHa3ksqlwXVn2DiKc9GU3_eZdlEgBAiTLgf6JKvfK1qdD= hneY2MgjuyVbw0aPzs8do1E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 40989315 40739264 40179248 39639269 39199314=20
38889380 38609485 38489601 38989700 39649673=20
40399590 40859437=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021954
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-030100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0105
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...northern AR into southeastern MO, southern IL and
western IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021952Z - 030100Z

Summary...Areas of training are likely to develop across portions
of northern AR into southeastern MO, southern IL and western IN
over the next few hours as an axis of thunderstorms builds north
and slowly translates eastward. Localized 2-4 inch totals are
expected (locally higher).

Discussion...Numerous thunderstorms were ongoing at 1945Z from the
southern OK/AR border into and across the Ozarks, just ahead of an
outflow reinforced cold front. Strong southerly 850 mb winds of
50-60 kt were in place from the lower MS Valley into the lower OH
Valley ahead of a longwave upper trough anchored over the western
U.S., aiding the northward transport of moisture/instability into
the Midwest.

As one shortwave lobe over MN continues to lift north this
evening, weak mid-level height falls over the middle to upper MS
Valley will transition to near neutral height falls down across
the Mid-South as shortwave ridging was evident in water vapor
imagery over KS/OK. This large scale pattern will likely result in
only slow eastward movement to the boundary from southern MO into
western AR. Largely unidirectional flow from the SW in place ahead
of the cold front/outflow will promote short term areas of
training along with repeating cells. Strong low level flow
overrunning convective induced outflow will allow for the
continued regeneration of thunderstorms and rainfall rates of 1-2
in/hr (locally higher). A few locations within areas of training
could see 2-4 inches of rain (locally higher) through 01Z with at
least isolated to widely scattered areas of flash flooding
becoming likely.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4nb0Qiw5SHP0TTWIoUPXoa9JwVKrpaALGqeJ0rfGf4nYa5AxnNC2T1uf070SpI_5MSHG= zriOg13e15HaCbKGP1nsIjc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 40158729 39028726 37758834 35349074 34749336=20
35429385 37359227 38999067 40018870=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 022245
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-030400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0106
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
644 PM EDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...ArkLaTex into mid-MS Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 022244Z - 030400Z

SUMMARY...There are growing concerns for an axis of heavy
rain/flash flooding to develop from near the ArkLaTex into western
TN/KY through 04Z. Peak rain rates of 2-3 in/hr will be likely
within axes of training, most likely across AR to the MS River.

DISCUSSION...22Z surface radar imagery and surface observations
depicted an elongated axis of thunderstorms stretching from
southwestern IL into southwestern AR. A cold front/outflow
boundary combination was located at the leading edge of the
thunderstorms and visible satellite/radar imagery showed cloud
streets and developing thunderstorms feeding into AR from the
south within 50-60 kt of flow at 850 mb (per area VAD wind plots).
The environment ahead of the cold front was moderately unstable
and very moist with MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000+ J/kg and PWATs of 1.7
to 1.9 inches per a special 20Z SHV sounding and 22Z SPC
mesoanalysis data.

Due to a lack of height falls over the Mid-South, south of an
advancing mid-level shortwave over the upper MS Valley, the
outflow (effective cold front) is forecast to steadily advance
eastward into the lower OH Valley over the next 3-6 hours, while
the southern end of the boundary stalls across the ArkLaTex. The
resultant orientation should align with the mean steering flow
from SW to NE. As robust low level moisture transport and
pre-frontal cells intersect the boundary, coverage of
thunderstorms should increase from near the ArkLaTex into eastern
AR and eventually into western TN/KY over the next several hours.
Areas of training will have the potential to produce 2-3 in/hr
rainfall rates and depending on the persistence of training over
any given location, some higher end rainfall totals (4+ inches)
could materialize.

Flash flooding appears likely within this setup and should overlap
of training occur with any urban centers, locally significant
flash flooding could occur.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!87rQbXWChLFISaUYEuig2aBZ3ZgIUeq0zAQazBHlEiii96a4XxPPlpOvQbUGmz7zZ6Oo= rMhpSP5l5YOPngyrx6T2YS4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37438778 37018735 35378873 34359049 33259241=20
32659396 32699536 33329565 33769524 34659337=20
35029237 36189057 36958900=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030000
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-030555-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0107
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
759 PM EDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...Lower OH Valley into IN, western OH into
southeastern MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022358Z - 030555Z

SUMMARY...Areas of training are expected to shift into much of IN
and portions of southeastern MI/western OH through 06Z. Rainfall
rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible within areas of training and
flash flooding will be possible. However, by 06Z or so, rainfall
intensity is expected to decrease as instability lowers,
especially for northern locations.

DISCUSSION...2330Z radar imagery showed that a pre-frontal axis of
convection extended from far southwestern MI into southeastern MO,
with embedded mesoscale vortices/bowing segments, but with an
overall movement toward the east. The environment along and ahead
of the elongated line of thunderstorms contained 500 to 1500+ J/kg
MLCAPE and anomalous PWATs at or above the climatological max for
early April via SPC sounding climatology. In addition to
increasing upper jet induced divergence aloft, continued low level
moisture advection within 50-60 kt of 850 mb flow has allowed
instability to increase over the past few hours, and as a result,
convective organization has increased over eastern IL into
northwestern IN since 21Z/22Z. There have been occasional
instances of training where line orientation has matched the mean
steering flow, supporting hourly rainfall of 1.0 to 1.5 inches
over IL into northwestern IN.

Recent runs of the RAP suggest that CAPE values over IL/IN are
near their peak for the evening/night and over the next several
hours, a general downward trend in CAPE is expected with the onset
of nocturnal cooling, not including minor increases in instability
over southeastern MI and western OH due to low level moisture
advection. As the cold front/outflow boundary continues to advance
east, the ongoing axis of thunderstorms will follow with a general
progressive movement but there will be embedded areas of training
as different embedded speeds within the line setup short term
areas of training. The threat for short term training will
translate into much of IN and portions of southeastern MI and
western OH over the next few hours, but with an expectation for
weakening rainfall intensity toward 06Z as instability fades.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_666p51CeHBYO_OG0vfKqJg8_rFcx8AyZ2eiQYsHo8c_id_oAF9WnokNVf5uc7c8A4DU= cgeQjlQPWg9wlPvkGsvMGuE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...
LOT...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 42838266 42458251 41798282 41458233 39988349=20
38758468 38008569 37288720 37308865 38198878=20
40268733 41768595 42718414=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030535
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-031130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0108
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
133 AM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Mid-South into the TN Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 030530Z - 031130Z

Summary...Continued scattered to numerous flash flooding with
rebuilding and backbuilding convection resulting in additional
2-5" localized totals.

Discussion...A large line of thunderstorms (QLCS) extends from the
Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley to the Ark-La-Tex, and the segment
of the line across West/Middle TN into north MS continues to stall
with favorable conditions for backbuilding in the near term.
Ongoing deep convection continues to produce rainfall rates of up
to 1-2"/hr with ample upper-level divergence in the vicinity of
the right-entrance region of a large upper-level jet streak. The
mesoscale environment from north MS to West/Middle TN is
characterized by SB CAPE of 750-1500 J/kg, precipitable water
values of 1.3-1.7 inches (near the max moving average, per BNA
sounding climatology), and effective bulk shear of 55-65 kts. With
the stalling of the QLCS in this extraordinary environment, given
a 40-50 kt low-level jet ushering in continued strong moisture
transport and resulting deep layer moisture flux convergence,
renewed convection with heavy rainfall is expected.

Looking at a consensus of the latest hi-res models, an additional
2-5" of rainfall appears likely across portions of north MS into
West/Middle TN. While the bulk of this rainfall is expected over
areas that have received little to no rainfall so far, some
portions of West TN have already received some heavy rainfall (up
to 1-3"). Given the current presentation of radar (with impress
discrete cell signatures reforming in the MS Delta), models may be underestimating the intensity and persistence of cells which may
backbuild farther north into northeast AR and far West TN.
Continued scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding are
likely, and some flooding may become significant in urban areas
where cells effectively backbuild.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7hfyUf4n7PFOgilrSP4UMqtOuH9yF3kHFRx1lsp8kbmFEgNWua5KgA8xXCiFYxDuv6fr= SP0Ey46nQBq4Cun8RgiQklE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JAN...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37018687 36798638 36438652 36098678 35818667=20
35608671 35348709 35048751 34998757 34938769=20
34668816 34318892 34028976 33959022 33879069=20
34039183 34269269 34499294 34759274 35139219=20
35379119 35519058 35658999 35898946 36218884=20
36468816 36868754=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031107
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-031705-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0109
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
706 AM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031105Z - 031705Z

SUMMARY...Additional repeating rounds of heavy showers and
thunderstorms going through midday will continue to favor a
regional threat of flash flooding across the Mid-South.

DISCUSSION...Early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows an
axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms tending to repeat/train
over the same locations across portions of the Mid-South as a
moist and unstable airmass continues to lift north from the Gulf
Coast region.

A moderately buoyant airmass is noted in particular from southeast
AR through northern MS and into a small portion of middle TN with
MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Areas off to the northeast
here going up into southeast KY are more stable by comparison with
CAPE values generally under 1000 J/kg. Area VWP data though shows
an impressive southerly low-level jet reaching on the order of 40
to 50+ kts and this is yielding sustainably strong moisture
transport.

The combination of this moisture and instability in conjunction
with a well-defined convectively enhanced surface boundary and
divergent flow aloft should favor sustainable clusters of
convection this morning which will tend to be aligned with the
deeper layer mean flow and thus will promote convective cells repeating/training over the same area.

The thermodynamic environment will promote rainfall rates with the
stronger convective cores reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour and
especially considering the level of shear (effective bulk shear of
50+ kts) which will favor pockets of strong and organized
updrafts. The PWs are generally on the order of 1.5 to 1.6 and
this will support these high rainfall rates as well and especially
with the strength of the low-level jet.

Additional rainfall totals going through midday should reach on
the order of 2 to 4 inches with isolated heavier amounts possible.
The heaviest of these rains this morning should tend to be over
central and eastern AR through northwest MS and the western half
of TN where there is better pooling of instability. Flash flooding
is already occurring over many of these areas, and additional
flash flooding is expected through midday.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Glh58uNZgPDObmYUVJtlqpyrRk27cJF0CuE5_ucCZFEdDUnIaSexig1NfcpKBjt7cIP= OCeUkKIElIczbu5AUaaK_5U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37758373 36908347 35968525 35448668 34688896=20
34119130 34059300 35039302 36139050 36798830=20
37608587=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031150
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-031748-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0110
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
749 AM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Northern TX...Southeast OK...Western/Central AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031148Z - 031748Z

SUMMARY...Expanding clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
wil tend to further organize this morning and should favor at
least some scattered areas of flash flooding, including an urban
flash flood concern.

DISCUSSION...A deep layer trough over the Four Corners region
continues to channel a strong upper-level jet along with embedded
vort energy out across the southern Plains and toward the broader
lower MS Valley region. This energy is interacting this morning
with a moist and unstable southerly low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts
across areas of northern TX and southeast OK which is yielding
several clusters of organized and very cold-topped convective
clusters.

A substantial amount of the convection is elevated in nature to
the north of a quasi-stationary front, and generally rooted within
a corridor of MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg. However, notably
higher instability parameters are seen farther south and east into
the warm sector south of the front. This instability coupled with
the moist low-level jet and strong vertical shear is promoting
high rainfall rates and especially with several severe-mode
supercell structures that are evolving across northern TX to the
west of the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area and also locally
across southeast OK.

Strong upper-level jet energy crossing the southern Plains over
the next several hours will provide an expansive area of deeper
layer ascent and shear that will combine with the favorable
thermodynamic environment for sustinable and well-organized
convective clusters. Heavy rainfall is expected locally, and the
rainfall rates are expected to reach 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour with
the stronger cells.

Some occasional cell-merger activity and localized cell-training
will be possible, and rainfall totals going through midday may
reach an additional 3 to 4+ inches. These rains will be falling
locally on some areas that saw heavy rain yesterday including
parts of northeast TX, southeast OK and western/central AR.
Therefore, with relatively moist antecedent conditions in place
here and additional rains likely to arrive this morning, some
scattered areas of flash flooding are generally likely. Adjacent
areas of northern TX are a bit more conditionl with the flash
flood threat, but there will be concern for urban flooding impacts
should these stronger storms impact some of the larger
metropolitan areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4Y8GZBLcveXpj8IEbv24DJyE-o_wtGlRTDkTfvTgVtJfauzaS1mqXvY3klqhro2a1RMn= DcoHkf2cDNtb4QNuuUhcQM0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35929347 35839213 34859170 34129250 33339421=20
32719611 32439748 32389891 33269930 34209824=20
35129607=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031709
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-032307-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0111
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
108 PM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Mid-South into the OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031707Z - 032307Z

SUMMARY...There will be increasing concerns through the afternoon
and early evening hours for increasingly significant and
life-threatening flash flooding from repeating rounds of heavy
showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...The early afternoon GOES-E IR satellite imagery in
conjunction with radar shows an extensive axis of heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity becoming a bit better organized and aligned
in a southwest to northeast fashion from central AR northeastward
through western TN and into areas of southern KY.

Compared to earlier this morning, the overall convective
orientation has been tending to gain some latitude as subtle
mid-level height rises over the Southeast U.S. becomes more
apparent and fosters a stronger poleward transport of warm air
advection and moisture transport ahead of the deeper layer
troughing over the central and southern Rockies. The airmass south
of a well-defined frontal boundary over the Mid-South has become
moderate to strongly unstable with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500
J/kg and remains quite moist with a southerly low-level jet of 30
to 40+ kts. The latest CIRA-ALPW data shows a substantial pooling
of moisture in the SFC/700mb layer with notably strong
concentrations noted from southern AR through northern MS.

The concern going through the afternoon and early evening hours
will be the gradual expansion and organized nature of heavy shower
and thunderstorm activity over areas that have already seen heavy
rainfall and flash flooding over the last 12 to 24 hours.
Streamflows across the region continue to increase and with
locally saturated soil conditions in place, the additional
rainfall signal that is coming out of the 12Z HREF guidance
suggests a growing concern for high-impact flash flooding.

Rainfall rates are expected to increase to as much as 1.5 to 2.5
inches/hour with the stronger storms, and especially over areas of central/eastern AR, northwest MS, and western TN where the
instability nosing over the aforementioned front is a bit
stronger. By early this evening, some additional rainfall totals
of as much as 3 to 5 inches will be possible. Flash flooding is
already ongoing across areas of western and middle TN, and with
the additional rains, significant and life-threatening impacts are
expected to gradually occur.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5FwRbRnet63ia_JlOGnqsGOLdEjyOfjYWp1aFGTgiuvIqEiCJMBaGlzpwCdf1sEYYhMj= yIKTGWvfNjmPEzMiRKRBhZM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JAN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...MRX...OHX...
PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38458369 37868287 37078375 36028580 34928810=20
34019061 34069213 34889248 35529183 36219041=20
37058855 38158573=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031802
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-040000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0112
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
201 PM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Arklatex into the Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031800Z - 040000Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms should tend to expand in
coverage this afternoon and become locally concentrated over parts
of the Arklatex region and into the adjacent areas of the
Mid-South. Areas of flash flooding are likely, and locally
significant impacts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...A deep layer trough over the Four Corners region
continues to channel a strong upper-level jet along with embedded
vort energy out across the southern Plains and toward the broader
lower MS Valley region. Early morning convective clusters have
advanced well off to the east-northeast, but the upstream energy
this afternoon will be continuing to interact with a moist and
increasingly unstable airmass pooled across eastern TX and through
the lower MS Valley in close proximity to a frontal zone. The
result will be redeveloping and expanding coverage of heavy
showers and thunderstorms.

The latest surface analysis shows a wave of low pressure lifting
through northeast TX which will be gradually lifting off to the
east-northeast over the next several hours along the
aforementioned front. A southerly low-level jet of 40 to 50 kts
will be in place ahead of this low center, and there will be a
corridor of strong low-level moisture convergence that will
facilitate upscale growth of convection that will likely become
locally concentrated and focused by later this afternoon. Strong
instability near and south of the front with MLCAPE values of 2000
to 3000 J/kg and rather strong shear parameters will also be key
ingredients for organized convection.

Recent runs of the HRRR guidance along with the 12Z NSSL-MPAS
guidance suggests areas of far northeast TX and southern AR will
tend to be the primary focus for heavy rainfall going through
early this evening, with convection potentially also training over
the same area. Rainfall rates with the stronger storms may reach
as high as 2.5 inches/hour. Some of these rains though will also
be advancing into downstream areas of the Mid-South currently
covered by MPD #111.

Some additional storm totals by early this evening may reach as
high as 3 to 5 inches, and especially where any cell-training
occurs. Given the wet antecedent conditions overall and additional
totals, flash flooding is likely, and there may be some locally
significant impacts which will include an enhanced urban flash
flood concern.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4PRh506P9DTJKKPFHI7XH21kt5Ujeh97P0njN6oEddzwS6cqmp4yJ2kzmRwufLPkz4MB= GVkowHWQQ63FoIJMLiIJ6U0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35179115 34908998 34408966 33959007 33539089=20
33129221 32779322 32199434 32069546 32639606=20
33479549 34449410 35039273=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032008
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-040105-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0113
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 PM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...upper OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032006Z - 040105Z

SUMMARY...Repeating and brief training of cells could result in
localized flash flooding across far eastern KY into WV and far
southern OH over the next few hours. Additional rainfall of 1-2
inches will be possible through 01Z, falling atop 1-2 inches of
rain which fell over the past 12 hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery and cooling cloud tops on GOES
East infrared imagery has shown an increase in rainfall intensity
across eastern KY over the past 2 hours, attributed to increasing
instability. Mostly clear skies located south of an outflow
boundary (located from south of SME, east-northeastward into
south-central WV between CRW and BKW) have allowed MLCAPE to
increase into the 500 to 1000+ J/kg range over southeastern KY as
roughly 30 kt of southwesterly 850 mb flow overruns the boundary.
Average cell motions have been fast with ~40 kt from the WSW,
limiting rainfall over any given location, but that rainfall has
been intense with 0.3 to 0.5 inches in 15 minutes observed.

A flash flood concern may expand eastward into WV through the
early evening as instability increases into the southern half of
WV, through the continued advection of low level moisture and at
least brief additional heating under clearing skies in southern
WV. Some backing of low level flow is forecast by the RAP and as
moist/unstable air continues to overrun the rain-cooled boundary,
additional storms are expected to form upstream in KY and advance
downstream into WV. There will likely be some repeating cells and
perhaps some brief training although uncertainty remains on the
degree of training into the evening. Given 1 to 2 inches of rain
which impacted western and central WV over the past 12 hours, an
inch or two of additional rainfall through 01Z may result in some
localized flash flooding atop sensitive grounds.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!83ODIoNtyyHDZpeHeYyS4PH3dAxGa2NLQBVuHdICwwSWc5hGEYJouWjLQKpTcM_W6foM= k4ITTYwFn1cMTMx5pmBomgc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39448128 39378022 38597991 38048112 37668250=20
37778307 38418362 38918296=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032325
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-040500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0114
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
725 PM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...lower/middle MS Valley into OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032323Z - 040500Z

SUMMARY...Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over the next 6
hours is expected to continue areas of flash flooding from the
lower/middle MS Valley into the OH River Valley. Peak rainfall
rates of 1 to 1.5 in/hr (locally up to 2 in/hr possible) are
likely at times which will overlap, at least partially, with areas
that have ongoing flooding from heavy rainfall over the past 24
hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 23Z showed scattered
thunderstorms over TN/KY, mostly north of a stationary front
analyzed from northwestern MS into Middle TN and eastern KY. A
greater coverage of thunderstorms was noted back to the west over
AR and southeastern MO, having originated back near the ArkLaTex
around 19Z. It appears the clusters of storms over AR/MO were
located ahead of a subtle low to mid-level shortwave, just nosing
into southwestern AR at 21Z, best identified in LPW imagery in the
850-700 mb and 700-500 mb layers.

The low to mid-level shortwave is likely to track northeastward
within southwest flow, allowing thunderstorms to spread
northeastward from AR/MO into the OH Valley overnight. Southerly
850 mb winds of 40-50 kt are forecast to overspread
western/northern TN into KY as the shortwave feature moves east,
maintaining an overrunning component of the stationary
front/outflow boundary combination over TN/KY. Elements of
training will be possible and sufficient elevated instability will
exist to support rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 in/hr (locally up to 2
in/hr possible) within axes of training that develop.

The result will be an additional 1 to 2 inches (perhaps as high as
3" in isolated spots) through 05Z, resulting in continued areas of
flash flooding. It seems the bulk of the heavy rainfall threat
over the next 6 hours will fall north of the axis of heaviest
rainfall that fell over the past 24 hours, but some overlap along
the northern edges (northwestern TN into western/central KY) will
likely occur. These additional rains will exacerbate ongoing
flooding that is occurring across numerous locations of the MS
Valley into TN and KY.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-GtEasy6cbb83SbUu4XzvZQY7pkhTbBfcCwtm-XuQZgkv6-rsJ_V80CNjmokbsIXabHo= vGakHxy_ruTA3MR3yIHoEPc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG... OHX...PAH...RLX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39558447 39288337 38518236 37998357 37348474=20
36158627 35048842 34839010 34969138 35239235=20
37009071 38108911 39198578=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040019
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-040500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0115
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
818 PM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...ArkLaTex into central/eastern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040014Z - 040500Z

SUMMARY...While near term flash flooding appears likely over the
next 1-2 hours from central to eastern AR, uncertainty remains
back toward the southwest in the vicinity of the ArkLaTex. There
is some potential for thunderstorms to develop in this region and
track northeastward into areas of AR over the next few hours,
reinvigorating a threat for flash flooding across the region.

DISCUSSION...00Z radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms over
central and eastern AR, advancing toward the northeast with little
in the way of redevelopment back to the southwest. The activity
was occurring north of a well-defined stationary front that
extended SW across southern AR into northeastern TX.

Rainfall rates of 1 to perhaps 2 in/hr will remain possible,
maintaining the flash flood threat over central/eastern AR for
another 2 hours or so. This activity is occurring ahead of a low
to mid-level shortwave noted in LPW imagery with drying in the
850-700 mb layer in its wake.

While some weak subsidence is likely occurring in the wake of the
convective activity moving through AR, moderately strong and
uninhibited MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000+ J/kg was estimated just south
of the stationary front over eastern TX into northern LA (via SPC
mesoanalysis data from 00Z). A forcing mechanism is uncertain
however and 850 mb winds are forecast by the RAP to weaken from
their present 30-40 kt to 20-30 kt through 06Z and some weak
subsidence is likely occurring over the region in the wake of the aforementioned shortwave. Nonetheless, the environment is quite
unstable and sufficiently moist to support thunderstorms with
potential for heavy rain.

Should convection initiate in the next 1-2 hours, there will be
potential for rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr, with storm movement
toward the northeast into portions of the region that have been
hit with heavy rain over the past 24-48 hours, possibly reigniting
a threat for flash flooding. However, the threat appears to be
lowering given the near onset of nocturnal cooling at the surface
and lack of visible triggers.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Lj8hPqgQobWkP1sGxNKaXJoXLC7zWfNeY5j7HL6L3yBsXfWTrEGwYazUmurySBCdcEE= Idkgwsda8UFfRyTOmZAk0lg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35219184 35099086 34539046 33079260 32209480=20
32469541 33629469 34659346 35099257=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040520
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-041115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0116
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
119 AM EDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...Mid-South to the OH/TN Valleys

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040515Z - 041115Z

Summary...Continued heavy rainfall with rates up to 1.5"/hr will
lead to additional 6-hour totals of 2-5". Scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...Clusters of convection continue to slowly backbuild
across portions of the Lower MS Valley, mainly over the Ozarks and
Delta of AR, arcing northeastward into the OH/TN Valleys with the
deep layer flow. A broad low-level jet (35-55 kts at 850 mb) is
providing seemingly unending strong moisture transport into a
narrow, clearly defined axis of overrunning/frontogenesis (also
ideally in the right-entrance region of a 140+ kt jet streak over
southeastern Canada). The mesoscale environment is characterized
by MU CAPE of 250-1000 J/kg, precipitable water values of 1.3-1.6
inches (near the max moving average, per BNA sounding
climatology), and deep layer (0-6 km) shear of 60-80 kts.

Northeasterly deep layer flow will support a relatively narrow
axis of repeating heavy rainfall over the next 6 hours, with a
consensus of hi-res CAMs (00z HREF suite) suggesting additional
localized totals of 2-4" (with rates generally capped at 1.5"/hr
due to instability being somewhat limited). This heavy rainfall is
expected to occur over areas that have already seen as much as
3-7" of rainfall over the past 24 hours (per NSSL estimates).
Given all of the recent heavy rainfall, it will not take much
additional rainfall to cause continued or renewed flooding, as
Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) is indicated to be 1.0" or less for the
bulk of the region. With hi-res models (00z HREF) indicating
relatively high odds for localized 2" exceedance (40-km
neighborhood probabilities of 20-50%), scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding are considered likely. Should these
2-5" streaks of rainfall occur over particularly sensitive
terrain, flooding may be locally significant.=20=20

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ulu3UvCykHbl4Zvh12J1sW7Atyp4-CZTiRU-DkPzrKP4NQITkS6py9dd7Ph0NKyah6e= ZQh6mbE_Ckb4gkxGZOiHvS0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39248266 39138199 38748173 38188196 37928239=20
37428322 36898454 36678539 36368647 35848783=20
35308941 35209041 35709107 36908981 37788809=20
38428664 38758553 38998447 39118361=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040529
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-041115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0116...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
128 AM EDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Corrected for DISCUSSION ERROR

Areas affected...Mid-South to the OH/TN Valleys

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040515Z - 041115Z

Summary...Continued heavy rainfall with rates up to 1.5"/hr will
lead to additional 6-hour totals of 2-5". Scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...Clusters of convection continue to slowly backbuild
across portions of the Lower MS Valley, mainly over the Ozarks and
Delta of AR, arcing northeastward into the OH/TN Valleys with the
deep layer flow. A broad low-level jet (35-55 kts at 850 mb) is
providing seemingly unending strong moisture transport into a
narrow, clearly defined axis of overrunning/frontogenesis (also
ideally in the right-entrance region of a 140+ kt jet streak over
southeastern Canada). The mesoscale environment is characterized
by MU CAPE of 250-1000 J/kg, precipitable water values of 1.3-1.6
inches (near the max moving average, per BNA sounding
climatology), and deep layer (0-6 km) shear of 60-80 kts.

Northeasterly-directed deep layer flow will support a relatively
narrow axis of repeating heavy rainfall over the next 6 hours,
with a consensus of hi-res CAMs (00z HREF suite) suggesting
additional localized totals of 2-4" (with rates generally capped
at 1.5"/hr due to instability being somewhat limited). This heavy
rainfall is expected to occur over areas that have already seen as
much as 3-7" of rainfall over the past 24 hours (per NSSL
estimates). Given all of the recent heavy rainfall, it will not
take much additional rainfall to cause continued or renewed
flooding, as Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) is indicated to be 1.0" or
less for the bulk of the region. With hi-res models (00z HREF)
indicating relatively high odds for localized 2" exceedance (40-km
neighborhood probabilities of 20-50%), scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding are considered likely. Should these
2-5" streaks of rainfall occur over particularly sensitive
terrain, flooding may be locally significant.=20=20

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!65jeMKewRQbbm6f8Sc1OzS0H7NWyCscsuXNwaNnmBf5yuNmOhC0rp6mCrBIoV5xm8iKW= H3_oXoiBGms7WCvmQyTpTZo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39248266 39138199 38748173 38188196 37928239=20
37428322 36898454 36678539 36368647 35848783=20
35308941 35209041 35709107 36908981 37788809=20
38428664 38758553 38998447 39118361=20

=3D =3D =3D
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