ACUS01 KWNS 160049
SWODY1
SPC AC 160047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS MUCH OF ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA
AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe convection, including the risk for strong
tornadoes continues this evening. Severe threat will spread across
Alabama into Georgia/Florida Panhandle later tonight.

...01z Update...

Strong short-wave trough is evident on water-vapor imagery over
eastern OK/TX. This feature will shift into the lower MS Valley
later this evening as 100+kt 500mb speed max translates through the
base of the trough into the central Gulf States. While the primary
synoptic front is lagging the organized band of convection, ample
low-level convergence/inflow is noted across southern AL/western FL
Panhandle into western GA. This will encourage ongoing activity to
propagate downstream, aided by the fast-approaching mid-level speed
max/short wave. This corridor of storms is multifaceted with
embedded supercells and bowing type structures, within an otherwise
broad precip shield. Latest observations suggest the most buoyant
air mass is correlated with mid-upper 60s surface dew points, which
have advanced as far north as ALX in eastern AL. Air mass recovery
is expected downstream into western GA which should support a
continuation of ongoing severe into this region. 00z sounding from
FFC exhibits fairly steep lapse rates through 6km, and further
boundary-layer moistening will prove beneficial for further
destabilization. Strong tornado threat continues with any supercells
as large-scale support and very strong shear remain favorable.
Additionally, damaging winds can be expected with any line segments,
and bowing structures. Hail is also possible, especially across the
more buoyant southern areas.

..Darrow.. 03/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160526
SWODY1
SPC AC 160524

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the
primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of
the East.

...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic...

Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift
into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the
main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across
eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This
feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that
should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon.
Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA
early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short
wave.

Early this morning, an elongated corridor of
convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast
into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which
will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance
suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of
the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly
forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge
east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this
convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief
tornadoes.

...Southeast...

Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in
the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast
into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses
steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should
extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle.
Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the
southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection,
with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging
boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear,
and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few
tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust
updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift
east/southeast through the period.

..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161241
SWODY1
SPC AC 161240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the
primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of
the East.

...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the MS
Valley with an embedded mid-level vorticity maximum rotating
northeastward over the lower OH Valley. This mid-level feature will
be accompanied by an intense belt of flow (110+ kt at 500 mb)
shifting eastward across the upper OH Valley/central Appalachians
through the day. In the low levels, a surface low over southeast
Lower MI will develop northward reaching the Quebec/Ontario border
by late afternoon. A moist/weakly unstable warm sector to the
southeast of the low will only slightly destabilize through peak
heating. Yet, short-term model guidance indicates 200-500 J/kg
MLCAPE will develop later this morning across the central
Appalachians into the eastern OH/western PA border region. A
strongly forced band of convection is forecast to gradually evolve
over the upper OH Valley. Largely unidirectional southerly flow and
elongated hodographs will support a risk for scattered damaging
gusts (55-70 mph) and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes with this
activity. The area of greatest model agreement for a convective
line posing a risk for severe appears most likely/concentrated
across western into central parts of PA. Farther south, gradual intensification of convection within a weakly unstable airmass will
support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two
through early evening.

...Southeast...
The southern portion of a mid-level trough will continue east
through the lower MS Valley into the Southeast today, as a low-level
jet steadily shifts east across north FL through much of SC by
mid-late afternoon while gradually weakening south of North
Carolina. An ongoing broken band of pre-frontal strong to severe
thunderstorms will move east into a weakly unstable airmass
(reference the 12 UTC Charleston, SC raob). Prior to a gradual
weakening of 850-mb flow by early to mid afternoon, adequately
enlarged hodographs within a destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE across north-central FL with considerably weaker instability
over the coastal Carolinas) will support organized storms, including
line segments (mainly north) and some supercells (south). Scattered
damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes are possible as
the severe threat shifts east through the period.

..Smith/Thompson.. 03/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161630
SWODY1
SPC AC 161628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN
MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the
primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will
advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded
100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale
ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic
regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern
Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through
the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite
imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in
eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be
somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to
upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow
warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating,
will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just
ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be
sufficient for surface-based convection.

Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just
ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly
east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY
through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per
area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered
damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph.
There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may
support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line,
especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a
southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe
wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear,
as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some
extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting
through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat.
Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts
of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance
trends.

...Southeast/Carolinas...
The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will
continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as
an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and
the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection
has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple
of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where
greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately
enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing
airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker
instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support
organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before
activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly
Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL)
will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to
55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 162002
SWODY1
SPC AC 162001

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
UPSTATE NEW YORK...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible through the
remainder of this afternoon and evening across parts of upstate New
York, the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast.

...20z Update...
The main forecast changes for 20z have been to reduce probabilities
behind the squall line ongoing over PA and western NY state, and
expand slightly ahead of the more persistent bowing segments over
northern NY. Lingering cloud cover and modest surface moisture
greatly limit available buoyancy ahead of the line. With only a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, decreasing with eastward extent, a gradual
loss in intensity is expected over the next several hours over
northeastern PA and NY. Still, very strong gradient winds and flow
aloft will support some potential for convective-enhanced damaging
gusts through this evening. 300-400 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH may also
support the threat for a couple of brief QLCS tornadoes while the
line maintains intensity.

Probabilities have also be trimmed farther south over parts of the
western Carolinas, GA and northern FL as the main convective band
and cold front have shifted east. Some isolated thunderstorm
redevelopment remains possible over parts of the Blue Ridge
Mountains of western VA and into the central Carolinas where diurnal
heating has steepened low-level lapse rates immediately ahead of the
synoptic cold front. While confidence in severe potential is modest
given meager buoyancy, the steep lapse rates could support damaging
gusts or marginal hail, should more sustained convection redevelop
as indicated by some CAMS. These storms may eventually shift
eastward into the mid Atlantic late this afternoon and into the
early evening, where low-level synoptic flow remains fairly strong.
Will maintain the Slight Risk for damaging gusts and isolated
tornado potential over parts of the Mid Atlantic into tonight.

..Lyons.. 03/16/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025/

...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will
advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded
100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale
ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic
regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern
Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through
the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite
imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in
eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be
somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to
upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow
warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating,
will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just
ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be
sufficient for surface-based convection.

Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just
ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly
east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY
through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per
area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered
damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph.
There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may
support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line,
especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a
southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe
wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear,
as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some
extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting
through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat.
Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts
of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance
trends.

...Southeast/Carolinas...
The southern portion of the highly amplified upper trough will
continue eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today, as
an intense southerly low-level jet shifts east across north FL and
the Carolinas through this evening. Ongoing pre-frontal convection
has mostly weakened late this morning/early afternoon, with a couple
of stronger cells persisting over southeast GA and north FL where
greater low-level moisture and instability is present. Adequately
enlarged low-level hodographs within a gradually destabilizing
airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL, with weaker
instability over the coastal Carolinas) should continue to support
organized convection through the afternoon and evening, before
activity eventually moves offshore. Broken line segments (mainly
Carolinas) and some supercells (mainly southeast GA and north FL)
will pose a threat for scattered damaging winds (peak gusts up to
55-70 mph) and a few tornadoes.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170038
SWODY1
SPC AC 170037

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast.

...01Z Update...

Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across
ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into
Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift
south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a
low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the
long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal
surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level
flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic
front will be the primary demarcation for organized
convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few
hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in
convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This
activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared
environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado
risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell
structures.

..Darrow.. 03/17/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170529
SWODY1
SPC AC 170527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Discussion...

Large-scale pattern has allowed significant offshore flow to develop
along the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts as surface ridging settles deep into
the Gulf Basin. While a few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a
cold mid-level trough along the Carolina Coast later this afternoon,
a dearth of deep convection is expected east of the Rockies during
the day1 period.

Across the western CONUS, a seasonally strong upper trough will
approach the CA Coast this afternoon as a 90kt 500mb speed max
translates toward the southern part of the state. Very cold
mid-level temperatures will overspread regions north of the jet such
that profiles will steepen and weak buoyancy will develop,
especially by peak heating. Forecast soundings exhibit a few hundred
J/kg SBCAPE across the interior valleys of CA. Given the cold
temperatures, stronger updrafts should penetrate levels necessary
for lightning discharge. Instability appears inadequate for more
than very small hail with this activity.

..Darrow/Moore.. 03/17/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171218
SWODY1
SPC AC 171216

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States.

...Synopsis...
The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough
exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S.,
followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern
Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold
mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon.
Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will
lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak
thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West.

..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171623
SWODY1
SPC AC 171622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still,
isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across
coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with
an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may
occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears
possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the
Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal
OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough
moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak
instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with
small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of
the Central Valley in CA.

..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171948
SWODY1
SPC AC 171946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The main
change made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update was to trim thunder probabilities across the Carolinas to the immediate shoreline. Here,
ascent and adequate buoyancy supporting thunderstorms continues to
be shunted offshore as the upper trough ejects into the Atlantic.

..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still,
isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across
coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with
an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may
occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears
possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the
Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal
OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough
moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak
instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with
small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of
the Central Valley in CA.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180056
SWODY1
SPC AC 180054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this
evening. Isolated thunderstorms have developed beneath this trough
as cold mid-level temperatures have steepened lapse rates. 00z
sounding from OAK exhibited a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE, and this
seems to be representative across the interior valleys. Over the
next few hours nocturnal cooling should result in weaker updrafts
and less lightning. Overall trends should be down after 03z.

..Darrow.. 03/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180540
SWODY1
SPC AC 180539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible later tonight from
eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa.

...NE/IA...

Seasonally strong upper trough is progressing inland across CA into
the Great Basin early this morning. This feature is forecast to
advance across the central Rockies into the High Plains by early
evening as 90+kt 500mb speed max translates across NM into OK by the
end of the period. This evolution warrants a lee cyclone
repositioning itself over western KS by 19/00z with subsequent
movement into northeast KS/northwest MO by sunrise. LLJ will
increase markedly across eastern OK/KS during the late evening, and
strong low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from
eastern NE into northern IA. Increasing large-scale ascent and
steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid buoyancy along this
corridor as profiles moisten and saturate near 2km. Forecast
soundings exhibit MUCAPE in excess of 700 J/kg and this should
support robust elevated convection ahead of the approaching short
wave. However, due to the limited instability, it appears the
primary risk with this activity will be isolated, marginally severe
hail. Greatest risk for strong storms will be across eastern
NE/western IA along the nose of the LLJ.

..Darrow/Moore.. 03/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181240
SWODY1
SPC AC 181239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
FROM EASTERN NE INTO IA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible late tonight from
eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa.

...Eastern NE/IA late tonight and early Wednesday...
In advance of a pronounced midlevel shortwave trough over
UT/northern AZ this morning, a surface lee cyclone will deepen
across western KS and then move to far northwest MO by early
Wednesday. Moisture return in the warm sector of this deepening
cyclone will be limited by a prior frontal passage across the
Gulf/northwest Caribbean, with only a narrow corridor of low-mid 50s boundary-layer dewpoints expected from eastern OK to far northwest
MO. Though the warm sector will remain capped through the period,
there could be sufficient ascent/moistening for elevated
thunderstorm development by 06-12z from eastern NE across IA. Steep
midlevel lapse rates and relatively cold midlevel temperatures will
contribute to MUCAPE of 500-750 J/kg and the potential for isolated
large hail (a few instances near 1 inch diameter) with elevated
convection to the cool side of a baroclinic zone across eastern
NE/IA.

..Thompson/Dean.. 03/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181625
SWODY1
SPC AC 181623

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible by late tonight in a
corridor from north central Kansas through central Iowa.

...Discussion...
Much of the nation remains under the influence of one prominent belt
of westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific.
Within this regime, mid-level troughing is in the process of digging
across the Intermountain West and Rockies. This includes one
significant embedded smaller-scale perturbation approaching the
southern Rockies, which is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward
across the south central Great Plains by late tonight.

Models indicate that this will be accompanied by a strong mid/upper
jet streak, including a core intensifying in excess of 100 kt around
500 mb, nosing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity through the lower
Missouri Valley from early this evening through 12Z Wednesday. It
appears that this may be accompanied by substantive further
deepening of a developing low across central through northeastern
Kansas, within already deep surface troughing now present across the central/southern Great Plains into lower/middle Missouri Valley.

In the wake of the prior cyclone which impacted much of the central
and eastern U.S. and Gulf Basin late last week into the weekend,
boundary-layer moistening across the western Gulf is underway, but
still only supportive of rather modest low-level moistening across
the Texas Gulf coast into southeastern Great Plains (including low
to mid 50s F surface dew points). It appears that this will reach
portions of the lower central Great Plains into Upper Midwest late
this evening through early Wednesday. However, relatively warm and
dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, associated with a broad plume
of elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the central/southern Great
Plains and middle/lower Mississippi Valley, will tend to impede an
appreciable risk for thunderstorm development.

...Central Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest...
Perhaps as early as late this evening, into the overnight hours,
model output continues to indicate that strengthening mid/upper
forcing for ascent, coupled with better low-level moisture return,
will overcome the inhibition and support a corridor of thunderstorm development. This likely will be focused within strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, along a frontal zone
extending to the east-northeast of the surface cyclone, across
southeastern Nebraska through central Iowa by late tonight.

Based at least on the latest NAM, it appears that the more sustained
and stronger thunderstorm development may initiate as early as late
evening near/east-northeast of the Concordia KS vicinity, before
spreading northeastward. This seems likely to occur as convection
begins to become increasingly rooted below the 700 mb level, closer
to 850 mb, with soundings perhaps becoming characterized by "loaded
gun" thermodynamic profiles above the near-surface stable layer.

Although most unstable CAPE may mostly peak in the 500-750 J/kg
range, stronger cells may become conducive to marginally severe
hail, aided by strong shear in the convective layer.

The potential for strong surface gusts is somewhat more uncertain.
Although the risk for strong downdrafts to reach the surface appears negligible, gravity wave induced surface pressure perturbations
supportive of gusty winds may not be entirely out of the question.

..Kerr/Bunting.. 03/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181953
SWODY1
SPC AC 181952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible by late tonight in a
corridor from north central Kansas through central Iowa.

...20Z Update...
The Marginal risk area was expanded slightly eastward into
east-central Iowa. Any elevated thunderstorm clusters that evolve
and track east-northeastward along the warm front (as indicated by
the latest MPAS runs) will pose an isolated severe-hail risk into
this area. For additional details, see the previous discussion
below.

..Weinman.. 03/18/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025/

...Discussion...
Much of the nation remains under the influence of one prominent belt
of westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific.
Within this regime, mid-level troughing is in the process of digging
across the Intermountain West and Rockies. This includes one
significant embedded smaller-scale perturbation approaching the
southern Rockies, which is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward
across the south central Great Plains by late tonight.

Models indicate that this will be accompanied by a strong mid/upper
jet streak, including a core intensifying in excess of 100 kt around
500 mb, nosing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity through the lower
Missouri Valley from early this evening through 12Z Wednesday. It
appears that this may be accompanied by substantive further
deepening of a developing low across central through northeastern
Kansas, within already deep surface troughing now present across the central/southern Great Plains into lower/middle Missouri Valley.

In the wake of the prior cyclone which impacted much of the central
and eastern U.S. and Gulf Basin late last week into the weekend,
boundary-layer moistening across the western Gulf is underway, but
still only supportive of rather modest low-level moistening across
the Texas Gulf coast into southeastern Great Plains (including low
to mid 50s F surface dew points). It appears that this will reach
portions of the lower central Great Plains into Upper Midwest late
this evening through early Wednesday. However, relatively warm and
dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, associated with a broad plume
of elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the central/southern Great
Plains and middle/lower Mississippi Valley, will tend to impede an
appreciable risk for thunderstorm development.

...Central Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest...
Perhaps as early as late this evening, into the overnight hours,
model output continues to indicate that strengthening mid/upper
forcing for ascent, coupled with better low-level moisture return,
will overcome the inhibition and support a corridor of thunderstorm development. This likely will be focused within strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, along a frontal zone
extending to the east-northeast of the surface cyclone, across
southeastern Nebraska through central Iowa by late tonight.

Based at least on the latest NAM, it appears that the more sustained
and stronger thunderstorm development may initiate as early as late
evening near/east-northeast of the Concordia KS vicinity, before
spreading northeastward. This seems likely to occur as convection
begins to become increasingly rooted below the 700 mb level, closer
to 850 mb, with soundings perhaps becoming characterized by "loaded
gun" thermodynamic profiles above the near-surface stable layer.

Although most unstable CAPE may mostly peak in the 500-750 J/kg
range, stronger cells may become conducive to marginally severe
hail, aided by strong shear in the convective layer.

The potential for strong surface gusts is somewhat more uncertain.
Although the risk for strong downdrafts to reach the surface appears negligible, gravity wave induced surface pressure perturbations
supportive of gusty winds may not be entirely out of the question.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190058
SWODY1
SPC AC 190056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS TO FAR EASTERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible by late tonight in a
corridor from north central Kansas through central Iowa.

...Discussion...
00Z Surface analysis shows a 989mb surface low in west-central
Kansas this evening. Ahead of this surface low, a low-level jet is strengthening (now 50 kts below 1km on the KICT VWP). This low-level
jet is forecast to strengthen to 65 to 70 knots by 06Z which will be
crucial for low-level moistening and thunderstorm potential later
tonight. The 00Z RAOB from TOP showed a very dry profile. However,
slightly better moisture is in place across central Oklahoma with a
8C dewpoint at 850mb at OUN. Forecast guidance continues to indicate
that enough of this moisture will advect north into warm frontal
zone across northeast Kansas and Iowa for weak to moderate
instability by 08-10Z. If sufficient moistening occurs for 1000 J/kg
MUCAPE early Wednesday morning, supercells capable of large hail
will be possible given 40-45 knots of effective shear.

Expanded the marginal slightly east this outlook to account for
latest HRRR placement of the strongest storms early Wednesday
morning.

..Bentley.. 03/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190557
SWODY1
SPC AC 190555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across
parts of central Illinois to western Indiana from mid-afternoon to
early evening. Several tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind
gusts will be possible.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level low will move from northeast Kansas this morning
to Lower Michigan by 12Z Thursday. A strong mid-level jet streak
along the southeastern periphery of this area of low pressure will
translate from northeast Oklahoma to central Illinois. Meanwhile a
surface low within the left exit region of this upper-level jet will
move from northeast Kansas to north-central Illinois.

...Central Illinois into north-central Illinois and western
Indiana...
A rapidly changing environment is forecast across Illinois today.
Extensive cloudcover is expected across the state for much of the
day as low-level moisture streams north within a narrow corridor
ahead of the cold front. However, by mid to late afternoon, some
clearing is expected which may allow for some brief heating and
destabilization across central Illinois. In fact, the HRRR shows
what appears to be a dryline by mid afternoon. Mid-level
temperatures will be very cold (-22C at 500mb and -4C at 700mb)
which will allow for rapid destabilization with only slight heating.
Once destabilization begins ahead of the cold front/dry line, expect thunderstorm development. The wind profile across central and
northern Illinois will support supercells, but the intensity of
these supercells will be modulated by the instability. 250-500 J/kg
MLCAPE will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all
severe weather hazards. However, if greater destabilization occurs,
such as shown by the 00Z HRRR/ 03Z RAP, an even more volatile
environment would be present. 56-57F dewpoints would support 1000+
J/kg MLCAPE which is very significant in the low-topped environment
with an EL below 30kft. HRRR/RAP soundings show STP values around
2-3 with very favorable low-level hodograph shapes. Therefore, in
the higher instability scenario, multiple tornadic supercells would
be possible with the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes. While
uncertainties remain regarding dewpoints and the amount of
clearing/heating along/ahead of the front, an enhanced risk upgrade
seems prudent given the expectation for several supercells capable
of all hazards and the conditional potential for a more volatile
environment.

...Southern Indiana southward to MS/AL...
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold
front across Indiana at the nose of the mid-level jet streak during
the evening as rapid ascent and mid-level cooling erodes inhibition.
Forecast sounding show an environment favorable for supercells
capable of all severe weather hazards to persist across Indiana
before eventually outrunning the instability somewhere near the Ohio
border. Mid-level cooling will not be as great farther south across
KY/TN and into MS/AL. However, greater low-level moisture (upper 50s
to low 60s dewpoints) should compensate with a few scattered
supercells possible with a primary threat of large hail and damaging
wind gusts during the evening.

..Bentley.. 03/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191246
SWODY1
SPC AC 191245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening
from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes,
large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible.

...IL/IN this afternoon into early tonight...
A deep (989 mb) cyclone near the northeast KS/northwest MO border
will move northeastward to northern IL by this evening and Lower MI
overnight, in conjunction with a deep midlevel trough and 100+ kt
midlevel jet streak. Elevated convection is ongoing this morning in
a zone of focused ascent with warm advection/frontogenesis across
IA, where isolated large hail may occur with MUCAPE around 500 J/kg
and steep midlevel lapse rates/cool midlevel temperatures. The warm
sector of the cyclone is characterized by a narrow/modest corridor
of returning moisture (low-mid 50s boundary-layer dewpoints) that
will overspread MO/IL through the afternoon. Surface heating in
cloud breaks, continued moisture advection and relatively cool
midlevel temperatures will all contribute to warm sector
destabilization (MLCAPE 500-750 J/kg) through the afternoon across
IL.

Surface-based thunderstorm development will become probable by
early-mid afternoon in a broken band along and just ahead of a
remnant dryline moving from MO into IL, and storms will subsequently
move eastward/northeastward into IN by early tonight before
weakening gradually. The deeper buoyancy profiles will be on the
cyclonic side of the midlevel jet, where 500 mb temperatures will be
< -20 C. Forecast wind profiles suggest supercell potential with
long hodographs (effective bulk shear vectors >50 kt), and
sufficient low-level hodograph curvature/shear for tornado
potential. The primary uncertainty centers of the degree of
low-level moistening/destabilization, and the current forecast
represents a conditional/reasonable worst case scenario. Otherwise,
occasional large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) will be possible in
IL this afternoon/evening, and the threat for damaging gusts (60-70
mph) and a couple of tornadoes will persist into IN through early
tonight.

...TN/MS/AL this afternoon/evening...
Boundary-layer dewpoints will slowly increase to the upper 50s/lower
60s ahead of the surface wind shift moving across AR/LA this
afternoon. Forcing for ascent should be sufficient to remove the
cap, allowing some deep convection in a broken band this
afternoon/evening. Buoyancy will be relatively weak compared to the
vertical shear, so it will be difficult to get sustained severe
storms and isolated wind damage will be the most probable threat.

..Thompson/Dean.. 03/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191600
SWODY1
SPC AC 191559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening
from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes,
large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible.

...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight...

A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will
continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and
into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit
region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this
afternoon into early evening.

Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and
northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may
inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore,
boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in
the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F.
If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints
from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast
guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs
from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest
destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across
central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the
afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development
across IL by 18-19z.

Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated
hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These
vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and
LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly
aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest
boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk
this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a
localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some
risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk
would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional
risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG
tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also
pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail
up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop
southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by
late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset.

...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening...

Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this
morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this
afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s
F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north,
it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm
advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally
near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite
strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band
of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts.

..Leitman/Bunting.. 03/19/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 192000
SWODY1
SPC AC 191958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening
from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes,
large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the
Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a
broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this
afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid
gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level
destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an
embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size
and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the
west behind the eastward-advancing dryline.

For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch
#57 and MCD #245.

..Weinman.. 03/19/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/

...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight...

A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will
continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and
into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit
region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this
afternoon into early evening.

Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and
northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may
inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore,
boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in
the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F.
If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints
from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast
guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs
from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest
destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across
central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the
afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development
across IL by 18-19z.

Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated
hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These
vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and
LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly
aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest
boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk
this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a
localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some
risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk
would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional
risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG
tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also
pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail
up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop
southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by
late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset.

...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening...

Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this
morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this
afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s
F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north,
it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm
advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally
near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite
strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band
of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200058
SWODY1
SPC AC 200057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM INDIANA INTO
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR WESTERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening mainly
over Indiana, parts of Kentucky and into Tennessee.

...IN into western KY...
A primary line of storms stretches from central IN into western KY
and TN as of 01Z, with secondary line of storms along the IL/IN
border in association with the cold front. Given the loss of heating
and relatively narrow zone of instability, the primary risk of
damaging gusts, hail, and perhaps a brief tornado should be greatest
over the next 1-2 hours, and will then wane within the 03-06Z time
frame. Even so, isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out as far
east as central OH and south into parts of MS and AL as the front
pushes through tonight.

For more in-depth information, see mesoscale discussions 249, 250,
and 251.

..Jewell.. 03/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200447
SWODY1
SPC AC 200446

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong upper trough will move rapidly across the eastern states
today, with primary midlevel speed max sweeping across the Gulf
Coast states and nosing into the Carolinas during the afternoon.
Cooling aloft with this system will be substantial as a band of
strong meridional flow approaches the East Coast late in the day.

At the surface, a trough will deepen slightly ahead of a cold front
with strongest afternoon push from GA into the Carolinas where 850
mb winds will exceed 40 kt out of the west/southwest.

While an elongated north-south band of precipitation is likely to
accompany the cold front, instability is forecast to be quite weak.
MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg may develop near the front, perhaps
effectively elevated as the front undercuts meager moisture return
and lapse rates steepen aloft. A plume of steeper low-level lapse
rates will accompany the dry slot from GA into the Carolinas, but
forecast soundings indicate little severe potential due to limited
moisture. As such, severe storms are not forecast, but locally
gusty winds are expected with the band of showers and due to
vertical mixing considerations.

..Jewell/Moore.. 03/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201245
SWODY1
SPC AC 201243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected.

...Eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon...
A midlevel trough and an associated surface cold front will progress
eastward from the Appalachians to the Atlantic coast by late this
evening/early tonight. Only a narrow corridor of low-level
moistening is expected ahead of the front, as a result of only
partial air mass modification and poor trajectories from the Gulf
and western Atlantic. There could be sufficient heating and
moistening for very weak buoyancy (100-200 J/kg MLCAPE) and
convection deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes in a
band along the front this afternoon, especially across eastern NC.
While there is a low chance for isolated wind damage, the very weak
buoyancy does not support the addition of severe wind probabilities.

..Thompson/Dean.. 03/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201611
SWODY1
SPC AC 201610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected.

...Eastern NC/Southeast VA...

Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will
allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this
afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest,
with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a
narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon
observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as
well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification
will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted,
generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few
lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon
along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb,
where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast
soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very
poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe
thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities.

..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201957
SWODY1
SPC AC 201956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today in parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no
changes were made with this update. A swath of showers with
isolated/embedded lightning is tracking east-northeastward across
the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the front this afternoon. A few strong
gusts (40-50 mph) may accompany this activity as it overspreads
portions of northeastern NC and southeastern VA -- where continued
diurnal heating and steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in
downward momentum transport. However, the overall risk of severe
wind gusts still appears too low for probabilities at this time.

..Weinman.. 03/20/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/

...Eastern NC/Southeast VA...

Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will
allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this
afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest,
with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a
narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon
observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as
well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification
will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted,
generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few
lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon
along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb,
where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast
soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very
poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe
thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210036
SWODY1
SPC AC 210035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms possible for a short time this evening over
the coastal Mid-Atlantic, with sporadic lightning flashes over the
northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected.

...Synopsis...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently exist along the cold
from over the Mid Atlantic, and remain weak due to limited
instability. This front will continue to push rapidly offshore along
with the parent trough. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes remain
possible this evening over the northern Rockies beneath an upper
wave within the northwest flow regime. However, this activity is
expected to wane as well with the loss of heating.

..Jewell.. 03/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210447
SWODY1
SPC AC 210446

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

...Synopsis...
A northwest flow regime will exist across the CONUS today, with
multiple embedded waves. In general, minimal thunderstorm activity
is forecast due to a relatively stable air mass due to high
pressure. One such high will be situated over the Southeast and into
the Gulf through the period, with minimal moisture return into
southern TX. Another surface high will be centered over the Great
Basin for much of the period. That said, thunderstorm chances will
be limited to a small part of the Pacific Northwest, and from
southeast SD across IA and into IL. Both areas will be beneath their
respective shortwave troughs, with cool temperatures aloft
supporting weak convection.

..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211239
SWODY1
SPC AC 211238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

...Synopsis...
Within a largely zonal flow regime, embedded shortwave troughs will
move from the Great Plains to the OH Valley, and inland over the
Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. The Great Plains trough
will move over NE/IA by this afternoon/evening with an associated
surface trough/weak cold front. Despite very limited low-level
moisture, surface heating beneath cold midlevel temperatures
(approaching -30 C at 500 mb) will allow for steep low-midlevel
lapse rates and weak surface-based buoyancy this afternoon/evening.
A few high-based, low-topped thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon through late evening. The steep lapse rates and
moderately strong midlevel flow suggest some potential for gusty
outflow winds and small hail/graupel with the convection, but the
threat appears too limited to warrant severe probabilities.

Otherwise, isolated lightning flashes will be possible later today
into tonight from the WA Cascades into the northern Rockies.

..Thompson/Bentley.. 03/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211625
SWODY1
SPC AC 211624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

...Iowa Vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the Midwest today and
tonight, with increasing deep-layer west/northwest flow associated
with this feature overspreading the region. Boundary layer moisture
will remain scant ahead of an east/southeast moving cold front
sweeping across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley this afternoon and
evening. Nevertheless, very cold temperatures aloft (near -25 C at
500 mb, as sampled by 12z regional balloon observations), will
support steep midlevel lapse rates. Additionally, surface heating
into the mid 50s to low 60s will support steepening low-level lapse
rates. These steep lapse rates amid cold temperatures aloft should
be sufficient for SBCAPE values up to 300 J/kg. As such, isolated
high-based, low-topped thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from the Mid-MO Valley into the Mid-MS Valley. Given the dry
boundary layer and near 30-40 kt flow between 850-700 mb, convection
may locally enhance already gusty surface winds, and a few stronger
gusts near 40-45 kt may occur, especially across southeast Iowa into
northwest IL. A couple instances of small hail/graupel also could
accompany this activity.

...Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the region tonight.
Cooling aloft will support steepening lapse rates and sufficient destabilization to support isolated lightning flashes.

..Leitman/Halbert.. 03/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211936
SWODY1
SPC AC 211934

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20Z Update...
Prior forecast remains largely intact. Only change is to trim the
thunder area over southeast SD/far southwest MN in the wake/north of
the passing mid-level shortwave impulse in eastern NE.

..Grams.. 03/21/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025/

...Iowa Vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the Midwest today and
tonight, with increasing deep-layer west/northwest flow associated
with this feature overspreading the region. Boundary layer moisture
will remain scant ahead of an east/southeast moving cold front
sweeping across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley this afternoon and
evening. Nevertheless, very cold temperatures aloft (near -25 C at
500 mb, as sampled by 12z regional balloon observations), will
support steep midlevel lapse rates. Additionally, surface heating
into the mid 50s to low 60s will support steepening low-level lapse
rates. These steep lapse rates amid cold temperatures aloft should
be sufficient for SBCAPE values up to 300 J/kg. As such, isolated
high-based, low-topped thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from the Mid-MO Valley into the Mid-MS Valley. Given the dry
boundary layer and near 30-40 kt flow between 850-700 mb, convection
may locally enhance already gusty surface winds, and a few stronger
gusts near 40-45 kt may occur, especially across southeast Iowa into
northwest IL. A couple instances of small hail/graupel also could
accompany this activity.

...Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the region tonight.
Cooling aloft will support steepening lapse rates and sufficient destabilization to support isolated lightning flashes.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220038
SWODY1
SPC AC 220036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough now over IA will continue southeastward across
the OH Valley tonight, with decreasing availability of instability.
Steep lapse rates owing to daytime heating beneath the upper trough
have resulted in scattered weak thunderstorms over IA and northern
MO this evening, and some of this activity may persist into IL this
evening. Very weak instability will preclude any severe threat.

Elsewhere, similarly weak instability exists over parts of the
Pacific Northwest this evening, in association with an upper jet
diving into WA/OR. Isolated convection may yield a few lightning
flashes as far east as western MT.

..Jewell.. 03/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220533
SWODY1
SPC AC 220531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and
strong gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast
Oklahoma into portions of eastern Kansas and much of Missouri.

...Synopsis...
As a leading shortwave trough moves eastward across the Mid
Atlantic, high pressure behind a cold front will shift into the
Great Lakes and OH/TN Valleys, also extending into the Gulf of
America. Meanwhile, another wave will be moving into the northern
Rockies by 00Z, and will amplify as it moves across the northern
Plains and mid MO Valley overnight.

As this system emerges into the Plains, low pressure will deepen
over SD, and southerly winds will increase from the western Gulf
into the southern Plains. Dewpoints into the 50s F will spread as
far north as Kansas City by 12Z Sunday. As the upper trough
interacts with this moist plume, strong storms will become
increasingly likely from late evening into the overnight hours from
far northeast OK into the lower MO Valley, with primarily hail
potential.

...Northeast OK into the lower MO Valley and vicinity...
Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead
to destabilization over eastern OK and western AR through 00Z, with
stronger elevated instability rapidly spreading across eastern KS
and MO during the evening. Indications are that initial activity may
develop between 00-03Z over northeast OK near the low-level jet axis
as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool
temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height as well as
deepening moisture through 700 mb will favor cells producing large
hail as cells proceed into southern MO. There is also a risk of a
tornado, though highly conditional at this time, with any potential far-southern cell closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast
OK into extreme northwest AR.

Overnight, as a cold front moves east across KS, lift will be
enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could
develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and
wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending
north toward the IA/MO border will support isolated hail as well in
the warm advection regime.

...Northern High Plains...
Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon
north of the midlevel jet axis and behind the cold front and
developing low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate minimal
instability in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest flow
and favorable time of day could yield a few strong gusts.

..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221257
SWODY1
SPC AC 221256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
KS/NORTHEAST OK TO OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and
strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas
and much of Missouri.

...Northeast OK/eastern KS to Ozarks/Lower MO Valley...
A shortwave trough will steadily amplify and dig southeastward late
today and tonight across the northern Plains, with deepening surface
lows expected across the South Dakota/Minnesota vicinity as well as
the southern Plains tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture
return will precede a southeast-accelerating cold front across the
Plains.

Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead
to destabilization over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
through late afternoon and early evening, with stronger elevated
instability rapidly developing across eastern Kansas and Missouri
during the evening into the overnight. Indications are that initial
storm development could occur by around 00-03Z over northeast
Oklahoma near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the
heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and
veering winds with height, as well as deepening moisture through 700
mb, will favor cells producing large hail as cells develop into
southern Missouri and possibly far northern Arkansas. Portions of
the OK/KS/AR/MO border vicinity will be reevaluated in subsequent
outlooks for the possibility of a semi-focused hail-related Slight
Risk upgrade. There may also be a low risk of a tornado, though
highly conditional at this time given the modest moisture, related
to the southernmost development closer to the stronger SBCAPE from
far northeast Oklahoma into extreme northwest Arkansas.

Overnight, as a cold front moves east-southeastward across Kansas,
lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of
storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with
both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air
mass extending north toward the Iowa/Missouri border will support
isolated hail as well within the warm advection regime.

...North-Central High Plains...
Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon
north of the mid-level jet axis and behind the cold front and
developing surface low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate
minimal buoyancy in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest
flow and favorable diurnal heating/mixing could yield a few stronger
wind gusts.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221624
SWODY1
SPC AC 221622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and
strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas
and much of Missouri.

...MO/OK/KS/AR...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving
across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today,
and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear
skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of
KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually
increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing
low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast
OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in
the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly
consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms
lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening.
Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE
support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this
evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk
area.

...North-Central High Plains...
Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this
afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and
eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable
diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts.

..Hart/Halbert.. 03/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221956
SWODY1
SPC AC 221954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and
strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas
and parts of southern/central Missouri.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made
with this update. There was some consideration of adding 15-percent
wind probabilities in the current Slight risk area, given ongoing
diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates amid a dry boundary
layer, though the potential for a higher concentration of severe
wind gusts appears too conditional at this time. For additional
details, see the previous discussion below.

..Weinman.. 03/22/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/

...MO/OK/KS/AR...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving
across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today,
and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear
skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of
KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually
increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing
low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast
OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in
the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly
consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms
lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening.
Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE
support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this
evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk
area.

...North-Central High Plains...
Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this
afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and
eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable
diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230053
SWODY1
SPC AC 230051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and
strong wind gusts remain possible this evening and overnight from
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas
and parts of southern/central Missouri.

...Northeast OK into central MO...southeast KS...far northwest AR..
The 00Z OUN sounding depicts steep lapse rates and a strong wind
profile well ahead of the upper wave which will move into the
central Plains tonight. Total instability is not particularly strong
as of 01Z, but continued moisture advection in the low-levels with
an increasing low-level jet will eventually result in
destabilization and storm development later this evening. A few
cells may develop over far northeast OK after 2 or 3Z, expanding
into MO overnight. Favorable deep layer shear and lapse rates will
favor hail. Other storms are likely over eastern KS after 06Z along
the cold front as it encounters the moist plume, and locally
damaging gusts cannot be ruled out along with hail.

..Jewell.. 03/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230557
SWODY1
SPC AC 230555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main hazards.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt and deepen as it
moves from the northern Plains toward the upper Great Lakes, with
increasing mid and high level winds into the OH and TN Valleys.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen from WI into Lower MI with
a cold front extending south across the mid MS and toward the
ArkLaTex by afternoon. Heating and destabilization will be most
prominent roughly from Memphis TN southwestward into TX with
dewpoints into the mid 60s F, with moderate deep-layer shear across
the entire frontal zone.

...Lower OH Valley southwestward into eastern TX...
Early day rain and storms will likely be ongoing over MO, with
activity spreading east across KY. Weak elevated instability will
fuel this activity, supported by a 50+ kt low-level jet. Isolated
strong gusts may occur.

In the wake of the early activity, destabilization will occur ahead
of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the MO Bootheel.
Stronger instability will develop across AR, western MS and into TX
with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and
deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely along
the length of the front. Initial vigorous activity is likely to
produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". Low-level SRH may favor a few
supercells over parts of AR/LA/MS, and a brief tornado may occur.
The line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as
it shifts into northern AL and central MS.

..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231255
SWODY1
SPC AC 231253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a
couple of tornadoes could also occur.

...Northeast Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South...
The region will be influenced by strengthening cyclonic flow aloft
as a shortwave trough takes on a more negative tilt over the upper
Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. The moderately strong
winds aloft will overlie an increasingly moist air mass (surface
dewpoints developing into the 60s F) across the region in advance of
an east/southeastward-moving cold front.

Destabilization will occur this afternoon ahead of the front, with
1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the Missouri Bootheel, on the
southern edge of early day storms. Stronger instability will develop
farther south across the Mid-South and ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions
with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and
deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely to
develop and increase into mid/late afternoon along the length of the
front, and potentially just ahead of it within a zone of pre-frontal confluence. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large
hail perhaps over 1.75". As low-level moisture increases, deep-layer shear/low-level SRH will support supercells with some tornado risk
mainly across the ArkLaMiss/Mid-South. The evolving line of storms
is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts
east-southeastward into northern Alabama and central Mississippi.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231607
SWODY1
SPC AC 231605

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a
couple of tornadoes could also occur.

...Lower MS Valley...
A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today,
with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this
feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf
moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As
continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur,
sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm
development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY.
These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level
lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear
will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening
low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are
the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by
early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS.
Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a
greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is
expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the
03-05z period.

...East TX...
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into
north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the
day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm
sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong
agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of
the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient
vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail.

..Hart/Wendt.. 03/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 232000
SWODY1
SPC AC 231959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a
couple of tornadoes could also occur.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. In particular, the 5-percent tornado probabilities
were expanded slightly northward across western into middle TN,
where surface temperatures are gradually warming into the
middle/upper 60s to near 70 amid lower 60s dewpoints. RAP forecast
soundings suggest this will support surface-based storms into this
evening, and given ample low-level SRH, the higher probabilities are
warranted. Reference MCD #254 for details on the near-term severe
risk.

..Weinman.. 03/23/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/

...Lower MS Valley...
A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today,
with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this
feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf
moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As
continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur,
sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm
development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY.
These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level
lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear
will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening
low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are
the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by
early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS.
Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a
greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is
expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the
03-05z period.

...East TX...
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into
north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the
day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm
sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong
agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of
the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient
vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240104
SWODY1
SPC AC 240102

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions
of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of
AL. A tornado or two will also be possible.

...Synopsis...
Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over
the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending
south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a
diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low
over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward
tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a
warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from
central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN
Valley.

...ArkLaMiss and western AL...
Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central
and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt
bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe
MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in
diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This
should continue for another couple of hours before these storms
gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that
complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually
move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight.

While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually
intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across
northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show
around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs
with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a
tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant
supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve.

...Central and east TX...
Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures,
steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends
southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine
Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should
continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this
evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of
MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as
scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging
front.

...TN/KY...
Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley,
scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY
into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should
continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the
southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger,
but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe
intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the
intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts,
hail and a tornado or two.

..Lyons.. 03/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240555
SWODY1
SPC AC 240554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LA...MS...AL AND WESTERN FL/GA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible today
from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida
Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
Amplified mid-level flow will progress across the CONUS as an upper
trough moves from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, and a ridge
builds steadily over the West. A cold front, trailing from a surface
low will advance toward the Atlantic and Gulf Coast before stalling
across south-central TX this afternoon. A band of thunderstorms will
move southeastward across portions of the Southeast with a risk for
marginal damaging gusts and hail.

...Southern LA, to southwest GA and the western FL Panhandle...
A band of loosely organized thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing
this morning ahead of the increasingly zonal cold front across parts
of southern LA, southern GA and the FL Panhandle. Moderate buoyancy
and modestly strong westerly flow aloft may support a continued
marginal hail and wind risk as these storms approach the Gulf Coast.
The most likely area for this appears to be across far southern LA
and MS. At least a couple hours of filtered diurnal heating is
possible ahead of the band of storms, along with access to somewhat
steeper mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/km) from the west. This could
support a slight rejuvenation of convection for a few hours, with a
risk for hail and damaging gusts. However, storms should move
offshore by early afternoon while the front and the remaining
unstable air mass stall just inland.

Farther east into the Carolinas, the late return of the deeper
surface moisture coupled with increasingly poor mid-level lapse
rates ahead of the eastward moving cold front suggests buoyancy will
not be large (< 500 J/kg MUCAPE). A few storms may still redevelop
along the primary surface front, with potential for isolated gusty
outflow winds. However, overall severe potential appears quite low
given increasingly limited buoyancy.

...South-central TX...
As the cold front stalls and begins to gradually lift northward,
strong diurnal heating and deep surface moisture could support very
isolated storm development across the higher terrain of the Edwards
Plateau and south-central TX. Area RAP soundings show steep
mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) and 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which
could support a conditional severe risk for hail and damaging gusts.
However, this appears unlikely given subtle mid-level height rises
and little ascent away from the slow moving surface front. As such, probabilities will continue to be withheld given the low conditional
risk.

..Lyons/Darrow.. 03/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241256
SWODY1
SPC AC 241254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana
eastward to the Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia.

...Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to Florida Panhandle...
A relatively fast-moving (45-50 kt) bowing complex continues
east-northeastward early this morning across south-central/southeast
Louisiana toward the far southern Mississippi border vicinity.
Strong rear-inflow/MCV characteristics are readily apparent in
observational data including regional WSR-88D VWP winds. A 68kt/78
mph wind gust was recently measured at Baton Rouge, LA near/north of
the apex of the bowing complex.

This cluster of storms should continue to produce potentially severe
wind gusts this morning, although its northern extent may
increasingly be hostilely influenced by southward-sagging convective outflow/effective front that precedes it. Regardless, some
severe-wind potential may persist into the afternoon, particularly
in areas that are within roughly 50-80 miles of the Gulf coast.

...South-central Texas...
As the cold front stalls and begins to gradually return northward
later today, strong diurnal heating and deep surface moisture could
support very isolated storm development across the higher terrain of
the Edward Plateau and south-central Texas. Area RAP soundings show
steep mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) and 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE,
which could support a conditional severe risk for hail and damaging
gusts if storms were to develop. However, this currently appears
unlikely given subtle mid-level height rises and limited ascent away
from the slow-moving front. As such, probabilities will continue to
be withheld given the relatively low/conditional nature of the risk.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241609
SWODY1
SPC AC 241608

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana
eastward to the Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia.

...Gulf Coast...
Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern
LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow
boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA
eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle,
and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the
area of surface-based instability through the afternoon.
Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity
of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main
concerns.

..Hart/Mosier.. 03/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241953
SWODY1
SPC AC 241951

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Southeast
U.S. and southwestern TX.

...20Z Update...
The Category 1/Marginal Risk was removed, with thunder probabilities constricted to portions of the Gulf Coast. Latest MRMS radar and
NLDN lightning data show decreasing trends in convective intensity
along the Gulf Coast, in general agreement with high-resolution
guidance consensus. Furthermore, objective analysis also shows
decreasing buoyancy across much of the Southeast, with thunder
probabilities preserved along the Gulf Coast, where lightning
flashes are most likely.

..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/

...Gulf Coast...
Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern
LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow
boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA
eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle,
and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the
area of surface-based instability through the afternoon.
Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity
of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main
concerns.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250044
SWODY1
SPC AC 250042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities are low the rest of tonight.

...01z Update...

Weak low-latitude short-wave trough, within the base of the longer
wave, is ejecting across the eastern Gulf Basin early this evening.
Substantial complex of storms is noted ahead of this feature,
roughly 100mi west of the FL Gulf Coast. This activity should
struggle to move onshore, though the leading edge with lightning may
approach the coast before this complex weakens. Across the central
Peninsula, isolated thunderstorm has developed over Osceola County
along the wind shift; however, boundary-layer cooling is expected to
result in weakening updrafts and the probability for thunderstorms
after 01z appears too meager to warrant an outlook.

..Darrow.. 03/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250529
SWODY1
SPC AC 250528

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts
of southeast Oklahoma into central Texas.

...Southern FL Peninsula...

Upper trough is firmly established over the eastern U.S. early this
morning. Along the southern fringe of this wave, a low-latitude
short-wave trough is digging east-southeast toward the southern FL
Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests seasonally cool mid-level temperatures will spread across this region with -13C at 500mb
forecast by mid day as surface temperatures warm into the lower 80s. Early-afternoon soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE with steep
mid-level lapse rates. While wind profiles will remain somewhat
modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection,
some of which could be robust. Gusty winds, and perhaps some hail
could be noted with this diurnally driven activity.

...Southeast Oklahoma/North Central-Central TX...

Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably during the
upcoming day1 period as ridging will dominate the western U.S.
Northwesterly flow will be noted across the Plains and any embedded disturbances are currently weak and not particularly evident. Even
so, while heights will gradually rise across this region, 2km wind
field will gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains and
some increase in PW is expected along the I35 corridor from central
TX into southern OK by 26/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is
expected west of I35 and convective temperatures will be breached by
late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s. Most HREF
members suggest isolated, relatively high-based convection will
evolve along this corridor. Gusty winds and some hail appear
possible with this activity. After sunset, low-level warm advection
should focus ascent from southeast OK into northeast TX. This
elevated activity could also generate hail, and perhaps some wind
gusts.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251253
SWODY1
SPC AC 251252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts
of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas.

...Southern Florida Peninsula...
The region will be influenced by cyclonically curved westerlies
aloft associated with a prominent Eastern States longwave trough.
Relatively cool mid-level temperatures (-13 to -14C at 500mb) will
support moderate buoyancy across the southern Peninsula this
afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s F. While deep-layer wind
profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should
encourage isolated convection, some of which could potentially be
severe. Strong gusty winds, and perhaps isolated severe hail, could
occur with this diurnally driven activity.

...Southeast Oklahoma and North/Central Texas...
Upper heights will tend to rise as a front shifts/refocuses
northward toward the Red River vicinity later today. Strong
boundary-layer heating is expected especially to the west of the
I-35 corridor, where convective temperatures will be breached by
late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s F. While recent
HRRR runs are relatively limited in terms of implied convective
development, various global and convection-allowing models suggest
that diurnally aided development across central into north Texas is
plausible toward/just after peak heating, with a greater probability
and coverage for storms nocturnally into southern/eastern Oklahoma.
Isolated large hail could occur regionally in either regime, with
some potential for strong wind gusts as well, mainly in areas near
the Red River southward across North Texas. A greater confidence in
diurnally related storm development/coverage could warrant
consideration of a focused hail-related Slight Risk in subsequent
outlooks.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251557
SWODY1
SPC AC 251555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
FL...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX....

...SUMMARY...
Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts
of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas.

...FL...
A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the
southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample
low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE
values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze
circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms
through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered.
However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be
sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind
through early evening.

...TX/OK...
Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly
low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer
air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to
develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM
solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is
not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail
and gusty winds for a few hours.

Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm
advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to
scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast
TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds.

..Hart/Mosier.. 03/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251946
SWODY1
SPC AC 251945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts
of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas.

...20Z Update...
The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were
to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the
central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High
Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best,
and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or
two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in
these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too
low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/

...FL...
A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the
southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample
low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE
values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze
circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms
through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered.
However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be
sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind
through early evening.

...TX/OK...
Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly
low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer
air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to
develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM
solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is
not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail
and gusty winds for a few hours.

Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm
advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to
scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast
TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260037
SWODY1
SPC AC 260036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Hail is the primary severe risk with storms across north-central
Texas into southeast Oklahoma tonight.

...Southern Plains...

Modest northwesterly mid-level flow continues across the
central/southern Plains this evening. While latest water-vapor
imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbance embedded within
this flow, isolated thunderstorms have developed/matured across
north-central TX (Metroplex) into south-central OK. Strong diurnal
heating was instrumental in this development as temperatures warmed
into the mid 80s; however, nocturnal cooling will negate the risk
for surface-based convection. Latest thinking is low-level warm
advection will become the primary instigator in convective
development overnight as some increase in the LLJ is expected into
the Red River region. A northwest-southeast corridor of elevated
convection may ultimately materialize across southern OK into
northeast TX as the boundary-layer decouples and updrafts become
rooted at the top of the boundary layer. Hail is the primary risk,
and this should be fairly isolated in nature, thus a MRGL Risk
appears warranted the rest of tonight.

..Darrow.. 03/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260547
SWODY1
SPC AC 260546

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Pacific
Northwest this afternoon and evening. Supercells are expected west
of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These may produce
large hail, perhaps a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts.

...Pacific Northwest...

Seasonally strong upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast will
shift east today as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates toward the
OR Coast by late afternoon. Strong 12hr height falls will spread
across this region and the associated synoptic cold front should arc
from off the WA Coast-south along the OR Coast by 27/00z.

Upper ridging has permitted boundary-layer moisture to increase/hold
across both the interior Northwest, and west of the Cascades where
surface dew points are currently in the mid 50s. While PW values are
not forecast to be particularly high across this region, large-scale
forcing will contribute to moistening profiles and PW values may
approach 1 inch prior to convective initiation. Of particular
concern are the cold mid-level temperatures, and the steep lapse
rate plume that will overspread this region. Forecast soundings
suggest convective temperatures should be breached by 21-22z west of
the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE should approach 1000 J/kg
within a favorably sheared environment for organized, rotating
updrafts.

Latest thinking is isolated-scattered robust convection will develop
by 21-22z across western OR, immediately ahead of the strong
forcing. This activity should grow upscale and lift north-northeast
ahead of the approaching speed max. Profiles favor supercell
development and latest HREF guidance supports this scenario. Hail
should be common with this activity and the strongest updrafts may
generate quite large stones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or
even larger with the strongest storms. While a brief tornado can not
be ruled out, low-level shear does not look particularly favorable
for more than an isolated report. Damaging winds are also possible
with any of these supercells. Strongest storms should spread into WA
during the early evening as the short wave ejects northeast.

...Lower Rio Grande River Valley...

Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume
from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio
Grande Valley. Latest model guidance suggests a weak disturbance
will approach the international border by mid day and this will draw
a substantial moisture plume into south TX. Forecast soundings
exhibit modest lapse rates despite the moistening profiles. While
forecast shear is not particularly strong, some organization is
possible and this activity could generate gusty winds or perhaps
some hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection/precip is
expected across this region which may disrupt/limit organizational
potential.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261253
SWODY1
SPC AC 261252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific
Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west
of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may
produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts.

...Pacific Northwest...
A very active early season severe risk is expected regionally today.
A seasonally strong upper low over the coastal Pacific Northwest
will shift eastward today, highlighted by a 100+ kt mid-level speed
max that will overspread coastal areas by evening. Strong height
falls will similarly spread across this region and the associated
synoptic cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to
southward along the Oregon Coast by evening.

Low-level mean-mixing ratios are notably high, as compared to
typical daily climatological values (highest 5-10%), this morning
based on 12z observed soundings from Salem and Medford, Oregon.
Large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to a further
moistening of profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to
convective initiation. Cold mid-level temperatures and a plume of
steepening mid-level lapse rates will also notably overspread the
region. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures,
and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region.
Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be
breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE
should reach/exceed 1000 J/kg coincident with a favorably sheared
environment for organized, rotating updrafts.

Isolated to scattered robust convection seems likely to develop by
21-22z across western Oregon, immediately ahead of the strong
forcing. This activity should grow upscale and develop
north-northeastward ahead of the approaching speed max, with
profiles favoring supercell development. Hail should be common with
this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large
hailstones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with a
few of the most intense storms. Some tornado risk will also exist,
particularly where low-level winds maintain at least a modest
easterly component. Damaging winds may also occur.

...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley...
Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume
from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio
Grande Valley. A weak disturbance will approach the international
border through mid day, and this will draw a substantial moisture
plume across South Texas. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse
rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not
particularly strong, especially with northward extent, some
organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty
winds and/or hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection is
expected across this region which may tend to disrupt and limit
organizational potential.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261632
SWODY1
SPC AC 261630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific
Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west
of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may
produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts.

...Pacific Northwest...
Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the
coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt
500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and
overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts
east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington
Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening.

Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will
contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to
locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late
afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and
negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by
mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early
evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with
the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in
diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally
augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e.,
near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable
a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with
the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during
the evening and gradually diminishing late.

...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley...
A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid
afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak
heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and
some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered
storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low
to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be
capable of a localized hail/wind threat.

...Southwest IA...
A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into
MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast
soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as
the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small
to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat
appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities.

..Smith/Mosier.. 03/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261947
SWODY1
SPC AC 261946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific
Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west
of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may
produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and severe wind gusts.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were needed to removed thunder across
southern OK/northern TX with this update. The Slight risk across the
Northwest and Marginal Risk in south Texas were unchanged.

Temperatures across the Portland Metro into the Columbia Gorge have
warmed into the mid 60s to 70s under mostly sunny skies. Surface
objective analysis and observed 18z soundings from MFR and OTX
continue to indicate MLCIN in place across much of the region from
the Cascades/Colombia Gorge westward. The surface front and main
upper-level forcing remain offshore and are expected to move
eastward across the region by the late afternoon/early evening.
Forecast soundings continue to indicate weakening of MLCIN along
with steepening low to mid-level lapse rates as cooling aloft with
the trough modifies profiles. This should allow for thunderstorm
development through the afternoon/evening, with potential for
supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a
tornado or two.

See previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton/Smith.. 03/26/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/

...Pacific Northwest...
Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the
coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt
500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and
overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts
east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington
Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening.

Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will
contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to
locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late
afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and
negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by
mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early
evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with
the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in
diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally
augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e.,
near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable
a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with
the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during
the evening and gradually diminishing late.

...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley...
A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid
afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak
heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and
some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered
storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low
to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be
capable of a localized hail/wind threat.

...Southwest IA...
A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into
MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast
soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as
the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small
to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat
appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270046
SWODY1
SPC AC 270045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Pacific
Northwest this evening, with supercells possible west of the
Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce
large hail, perhaps a brief tornado, and severe wind gusts.

...01z Update...

Deep convection has struggled to organize across western OR/WA early
this evening, possibly due to extensive cloudiness. Even so,
temperatures remain warm with readings in the mid 70s from Portland
north into Lewis County WA. Westerly boundary-layer flow is
increasing and upslope flow may be contributing to gradual uptick in
convection from Clark County into central Lewis County WA. This
activity is expected to grow upscale over the next few hours and
wind profiles favor supercell development. If this occurs, storms
will track north-northeast along the higher terrain, and large hail
should develop within these storms. Latest trends suggest the
greatest risk may be shifting into WA as large-scale forcing is
beginning to shift into this region.

Across the lower Rio Grande Valley, a lone supercell is tracking
southeast along the international border over southern Starr County.
Large hail has likely been noted with this storm, most likely along
the Mexican side of the border. Some risk for hail will be noted
with this storm for the next few hours.

..Darrow.. 03/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270531
SWODY1
SPC AC 270530

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas
with hail and wind as the primary hazards. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail
and localized severe gusts are possible, mainly during the late
afternoon and evening.

...South Texas...

Complex, slow-moving upper trough will eject across northern Mexico
toward deep South TX by the end of the period. Strongest mid-level
flow will translate through the base of the trough, south of the
international border into the lower Valley of TX by early evening.
LLJ will remain focused across south TX and multiple rounds of deep
convection are expected during the day1 period. Adequately buoyant,
and modestly steep lapse rate environment favors robust updrafts, as
deep layer shear will support storm organization. Hail/wind appear
to be the main threats with this activity, though a brief tornado or
two can not be ruled out.

...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys...

Upper ridge is forecast to flatten a bit by the end of the period,
though heights will remain neutral to slight rises. As a result,
mid-level flow should back to a more westerly orientation with a few
weak disturbances expected to translate across the northern Plains
toward the mid/upper MS Valley. This flow regime will maintain a
notable, but veered, LLJ from western KS into eastern IA through the
period. Primary corridor of low-level warm advection will thus be
oriented across the upper Red River region into the lower OH Valley.
This corridor will likely experience multiple bouts of elevated
convection, driven in large part by the aforementioned LLJ. Steep
mid-level lapse rates will overspread this region and thermodynamic
profiles will prove at least somewhat supportive of robust updrafts
capable of generating hail at times. However, of potentially more
concern will be convection that develops during the late afternoon
along the eastern-most plume of steep low-level lapse rates, from
northeast KS/southeast NE into southwest IA. Latest model guidance
suggests inhibition will weaken such that isolated thunderstorms may
try to initiate by 23-00z. Wind profiles favor organized updrafts
and potential supercell development. However, additional
thunderstorm activity should be noted downstream within the stronger
warm advection corridor during the overnight hours, though updrafts
will be elevated in nature.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271258
SWODY1
SPC AC 271256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas.
Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated
to scattered large hail and localized severe wind gusts are
possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening.

...South Texas...
The slow-moving upper trough will eject across northern Mexico
toward deep South Texas by the end of the period. Strongest
mid-level flow will translate through the base of the trough, south
of the international border into the lower Valley of Texas by early
evening. A low-level jet will remain focused across south Texas and
multiple rounds of deep convection are expected. While regenerative
convection and outflow will limit the northern extent of more
appreciable destabilization, adequate buoyancy, a modestly steep
lapse rate environment, and deep-layer shear will support robust
updrafts and storm organization. Hail/wind appear to be the main
threats, although a tornado or two can not be ruled out.

...Central Plains to Lower Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valleys...
Scattered thunderstorms, including a few lingering strong storms,
continue early this morning mainly across northwest Missouri and far
southern Iowa. These storms will continue to transition
east-southeastward, with severe-storm potential remaining limited as
the low-level jet/warm advection abate this morning.

As the regional upper ridge tends to flatten later today into
tonight, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread this region.
Convective inhibition may become sufficiently weak by late
afternoon/early for isolated thunderstorm development near the warm
front/wind shift including a corridor across northern Kansas,
southeast Nebraska to southwest Iowa/northwest Missouri.
Supercellular development could occur in the presence of moderate
instability and favorable wind profiles featuring around 35-40 kt
effective shear magnitudes. A greater coverage of elevated storms
will occur tonight as the low-level jet reestablishes and storms
expand eastward regionally. Large hail is the most probable hazard
in both regimes.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271630
SWODY1
SPC AC 271628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe wind gusts are
possible across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys.

...Central Plains to Lower Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valleys...
Scattered thunderstorms, including a few lingering strong storms,
continue late this morning from eastern KS into northern MO within a
warm-air advection regime. Morning raob data over the central Great
Plains indicated the northeastern periphery of the EML is located
over the lower MO Valley. Strong heating in wake of the early day
convection will result in moderate buoyancy developing into
northeastern KS later this afternoon. Models show a flattening mid-
to upper-level ridge through tonight. Nebulous/weak forcing at best
is expected in the vicinity of a warm front/outflow intersection
later this afternoon. However, the erosion of CINH may enable a few
isolated thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon into the
evening. Recent HRRR runs and the 12 UTC model-run members of the
HREF show a dearth of storm development. Confidence in appreciable
storm coverage is lowering for diurnally based storm initiation and
casting uncertainty in terms of the potential severe threat.
Nonetheless, supercellular development could occur in the presence
of moderate instability and favorable wind profiles featuring around
35-40 kt effective shear magnitudes. A greater coverage of elevated
storms may occur tonight as the low-level jet reestablishes and
storms expand eastward regionally. Large hail is the most probable
hazard in both regimes.

...South Texas...
Visible-satellite imagery shows an extensive cloud shield and
convective cloud debris across much of south TX into the upper
coast, and farther west into the Big Bend region. This is in
response to a slow-moving upper trough which is forecast to move
across northern Mexico toward Deep South Texas by Friday morning.
This episodic convection across northern Mexico into adjacent
portions of TX should limit heating during the day. Forecast
soundings show seasonably moist profiles from the surface through
the mid levels subduing lapse rate magnitudes. Mid-level flow will
translate through the base of the trough, south of the international
border into the lower Valley of Texas by early evening. However,
considerably weaker flow with north extent (i.e., Edwards Plateau)
and uncertainty regarding destabilization farther north cast
uncertainty on storm intensity across south-central TX. The
low-level jet will remain focused across south Texas aiding in
regenerative storm development and an occasional isolated severe
threat may occur with the stronger storms.

..Smith/Jewell.. 03/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271948
SWODY1
SPC AC 271947

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND
SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe wind gusts are
possible across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys.

...20z Update...
The Slight Risk was removed from portions of northeastern Kansas
into southwestern Iowa and northwestern Missouri. It appears there
remains a conditional risk of a storm or two redeveloping in this
region through the afternoon/late evening, but overall coverage of
severe risk will remain low. Within this region, a pseudo stationary
front/warm front is located, with large scale forcing weak in the
absence of any pronounced upper-level trough. Through the afternoon
and evening, low-level jet response is expected which will help
augment weaker forcing and aid in thunderstorm development but
consensus is mainly for storms across far western Missouri into
central Iowa. Within this region, storms are expected to be largely
elevated, with potential primarily being large hail and a severe
gust or two. Overall, the severe threat is appropriately covered
with a Marginal Risk given the likely low coverage of the severe
threat.

Across southern Texas, the Marginal Risk removed across the upper
Texas Coast region to mainly encompass the area from Corpus Christi
to Brownsville westward. The northern extent of the Marginal Risk
continues along the Rio Grande into Big Bend. Damaging wind risk
will continue across south Texas through the afternoon before
redevelopment is expected across Mexico through the evening. This
secondary round of convection will pose a risk for damaging wind and
large hail.

..Thornton/Smith.. 03/27/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025/

...Central Plains to Lower Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valleys...
Scattered thunderstorms, including a few lingering strong storms,
continue late this morning from eastern KS into northern MO within a
warm-air advection regime. Morning raob data over the central Great
Plains indicated the northeastern periphery of the EML is located
over the lower MO Valley. Strong heating in wake of the early day
convection will result in moderate buoyancy developing into
northeastern KS later this afternoon. Models show a flattening mid-
to upper-level ridge through tonight. Nebulous/weak forcing at best
is expected in the vicinity of a warm front/outflow intersection
later this afternoon. However, the erosion of CINH may enable a few
isolated thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon into the
evening. Recent HRRR runs and the 12 UTC model-run members of the
HREF show a dearth of storm development. Confidence in appreciable
storm coverage is lowering for diurnally based storm initiation and
casting uncertainty in terms of the potential severe threat.
Nonetheless, supercellular development could occur in the presence
of moderate instability and favorable wind profiles featuring around
35-40 kt effective shear magnitudes. A greater coverage of elevated
storms may occur tonight as the low-level jet reestablishes and
storms expand eastward regionally. Large hail is the most probable
hazard in both regimes.

...South Texas...
Visible-satellite imagery shows an extensive cloud shield and
convective cloud debris across much of south TX into the upper
coast, and farther west into the Big Bend region. This is in
response to a slow-moving upper trough which is forecast to move
across northern Mexico toward Deep South Texas by Friday morning.
This episodic convection across northern Mexico into adjacent
portions of TX should limit heating during the day. Forecast
soundings show seasonably moist profiles from the surface through
the mid levels subduing lapse rate magnitudes. Mid-level flow will
translate through the base of the trough, south of the international
border into the lower Valley of Texas by early evening. However,
considerably weaker flow with north extent (i.e., Edwards Plateau)
and uncertainty regarding destabilization farther north cast
uncertainty on storm intensity across south-central TX. The
low-level jet will remain focused across south Texas aiding in
regenerative storm development and an occasional isolated severe
threat may occur with the stronger storms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280033
SWODY1
SPC AC 280031

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe wind gusts
remain possible across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi
Valleys.

...01z Update...

Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak disturbance over
the central Plains, shifting slowly east along the southern fringe
of the northern Plains ridge. This feature appears partly
responsible for ongoing cluster of convection that has developed
from near GRB to northwest of MHK. This activity is noted along the northeastern plume of steeper low-level lapse rates where surface
temperatures likely reached convective temperatures (mid 80s). Wind
fields favor organized updrafts, and LLJ is expected to strengthen
across northeast KS over the next several hours. Latest thinking is
this cluster should gradually shift downstream into northeast KS
with an attendant risk for hail, and perhaps some wind gusts.
Otherwise, more elevated convection is likely again after sunset
along the nose of the LLJ into southern IA/northern MO. Hail is the
primary risk with these storms.

Farther south, an expansive MCS is migrating across deep South TX
into the northwestern Gulf Basin. Trailing band of strong storms
will soon propagate across the lower Rio Grande Valley and off the
Coast. A secondary weak short-wave trough may contribute to another
bout of strong convection later tonight, especially as LLJ is
maintained into this region; however, extensive convective
overturning has disrupted the instability field across this region
and the prospect for organized severe appears somewhat limited.

..Darrow.. 03/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280532
SWODY1
SPC AC 280530

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEBRASKA...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A low-probability tornado and wind threat is forecast through this
evening across portions of the western Gulf Coast States. Isolated
severe hail is also possible from the Upper Midwest into Nebraska
later this evening/night.

...Western Gulf Coast States...

Southern-stream upper trough is currently located over northeast
Mexico/far West TX. This feature is forecast to shift slowly east
across south TX into the lower Sabine River Valley by the end of the
period as modest mid-level flow translates across the northern Gulf
Basin. Low-latitude nature of this feature should result in deeper
convergence holding offshore much of the period. This is especially
true given the multiple ongoing MCSs that are noted from the lower
Rio Grande Valley into the northwestern Gulf Basin. Substantial
convective overturning has occurred inland and air mass recovery
will be limited across much of the TX Coastal Plain. Even so,
adequate buoyancy will likely exist across far southeast TX into
southern LA such that a few robust storms could emerge within the
larger complex of convection. Forecast soundings suggest a brief
tornado or wind gust will be the primary risks, and this appears to
be a low probability threat.

...Upper Midwest into Nebraska...

Northern Plains upper ridge is forecast to flatten a bit today as
heights fall across the Dakotas ahead of a weak short-wave trough.
Latest water-vapor imagery suggests one notable short wave is
located over eastern MT. This feature will advance east today and
sustain a broad swatch of low-level warm advection along a corridor
from MN into northern lower MI. In the wake of the disturbance,
surface pressures will build over SK/MB into the Dakotas and force a
cold front to a position from southwest MN-central NE by 29/00z.
While warm advection will be responsible for multiple bouts of
elevated convection, any surface-based thunderstorm development
should be noted along/ahead of the cold front as boundary-layer
temperatures will warm rapidly and 0-3km lapse rates will steepen.
Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached
by late afternoon along the wind shift over NE and high-based
convection should develop. Gusty winds and hail are the primary
concerns with this isolated activity.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 03/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281242
SWODY1
SPC AC 281240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A low probability tornado/wind threat is forecast through this
evening across parts of coastal Texas into Louisiana. Isolated
severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from
Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest.

...Coastal Texas into Louisiana...
A convective cluster advanced eastward and offshore from deep south
TX earlier this morning. In the wake of this activity, a remnant MCV
should continue northeastward along/near the TX Coast today. With
considerable convective overturning having already occurred, it
remains unclear how much destabilization will occur along/behind the
MCV across deep south TX through the afternoon. A better chance for
modest surface-based instability to develop should exist across
parts of the upper TX Coast into LA this afternoon. With modestly
enhanced low-level winds veering with height across this area in
association with the MCV, there may be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to
support a couple of tornadoes with any cells or clusters that can
develop this afternoon. An isolated damaging wind threat should also
exist with this activity as it spreads into parts of LA early this
evening, before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime
heating. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit the overall
thermodynamic environment, and current expectations are for the
severe threat to remain fairly isolated/marginal.

...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest...
Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude
shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains
and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is
forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening
warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop
southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this
evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to
late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection
strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and
central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development
of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally
supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms
could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity
will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest
through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281624
SWODY1
SPC AC 281622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A low probability tornado/wind threat is forecast through this
evening across parts of coastal Texas into Louisiana. Isolated
severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from
Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest.

...Coastal Texas into Louisiana...
Satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over
south-central TX into northeastern Mexico, and a vorticity max over
the middle coastal plain of TX. Largely displaced from incipient outflow-generated air from a couple of western Gulf thunderstorm
clusters, southeasterly low-level flow is advecting richer moisture
into southeast TX/western LA.

Cloud breaks will lead to some heating from the middle to upper
coasts of TX into western LA. Surface dewpoints ranging from the
upper 60s near the coast to the mid 60s as far north as I-20, will
contribute to 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE per model forecast soundings.
Sufficiently enlarged low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH 100-200
m2/s2) and a moist boundary layer and appreciable 0-3km CAPE, will
support a conditional setup for several mini supercells. The main
threats with this highly dependent mesoscale scenario would be a
risk for a couple of tornadoes and localized damaging gusts.
Uncertainty is rather high regarding this forecast due to low
confidence in a few warm sector cells developing this afternoon.
However, if isolated to scattered storms were to develop, the
greatest potential severe threat would occur primarily in the 18-00
UTC period. This potential activity would likely diminish by early
to mid evening owing to the loss of daytime heating.

...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest...
Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude
shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains
and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is
forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening
warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop
southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this
evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to
late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection
strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and
central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development
of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally
supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms
could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity
will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest
through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat.

..Smith/Moore.. 03/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281927
SWODY1
SPC AC 281926

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
A severe storms threat will continue across coastal Texas into
Louisiana this afternoon, with primary risks including a tornado or
two and damaging wind. Isolated severe hail and wind is also
possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the
Upper Midwest.

...20z Update...
A Slight Risk was added across portions of far southeastern Texas
into western/central Louisiana with this update. Through the
morning/afternoon, supercell development has been ongoing with
rotation observed on radar. The environment across this region is
characterized by strong low-level shear, which is evident in
enlarged low level hodographs on VAD profiles from LCH and POE.
Daytime heating has led to MLCAPE around 500 J/kg across the region
with dew points in the mid to upper 60s (some 70s along the coast).
Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the
afternoon as upper level forcing increases with a vort max currently
upstream across southern Texas, with potential for more supercells
and a tornado or two.

Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk across Nebraska into the Upper Midwest
remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more
information.

..Thornton/Smith.. 03/28/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025/

...Coastal Texas into Louisiana...
Satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over
south-central TX into northeastern Mexico, and a vorticity max over
the middle coastal plain of TX. Largely displaced from incipient outflow-generated air from a couple of western Gulf thunderstorm
clusters, southeasterly low-level flow is advecting richer moisture
into southeast TX/western LA.

Cloud breaks will lead to some heating from the middle to upper
coasts of TX into western LA. Surface dewpoints ranging from the
upper 60s near the coast to the mid 60s as far north as I-20, will
contribute to 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE per model forecast soundings.
Sufficiently enlarged low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH 100-200
m2/s2) and a moist boundary layer and appreciable 0-3km CAPE, will
support a conditional setup for several mini supercells. The main
threats with this highly dependent mesoscale scenario would be a
risk for a couple of tornadoes and localized damaging gusts.
Uncertainty is rather high regarding this forecast due to low
confidence in a few warm sector cells developing this afternoon.
However, if isolated to scattered storms were to develop, the
greatest potential severe threat would occur primarily in the 18-00
UTC period. This potential activity would likely diminish by early
to mid evening owing to the loss of daytime heating.

...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest...
Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude
shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains
and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is
forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening
warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop
southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this
evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to
late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection
strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and
central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development
of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally
supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms
could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity
will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest
through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290046
SWODY1
SPC AC 290045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm
development is still possible this evening across parts of the Upper
Midwest into central Great Plains.

...01Z Update...
In the wake of southern mid- to subtropical latitude mid-level
troughing slowly progressing east-northeast of the southeastern
Great Plains/northwestern Gulf Basin vicinity, and downstream of
low-amplitude mid-level troughing emerging from the mid-latitude
Pacific, a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air has overspread a
corridor from the southern high plains through the Upper Midwest.
Beneath this regime, low-level moisture return remains modest,
particularly to the north of the southern Great Plains Red River
Valley.

...Great Plains into Great Lakes
Due to the pronounced mid-level inhibition, thunderstorm development
through much of the day remained confined to areas well to the north
of a sharp quasi-stationary frontal zone across the Upper
Mississippi Valley into lower Great Lakes region. However,
thunderstorm activity has recently initiated, and continues to
increase in coverage, in closer proximity to the front, across parts
of southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin. While some of this
has initiated in the more strongly heated boundary-layer to the
south of the front, this is likely to be either fairly quickly
become undercut by the front, where the front is beginning to
advance southward, or become focused in forcing associated with
low-level warm to the immediate north of the front, farther east.
CAPE for the elevated moist parcels might be as high as 500-1000
J/kg, which may continue to support a risk for small to marginally
severe hail in stronger storms through this evening.

Southwestward into the Great Plains, latest satellite imagery
suggest that there still may be a window of opportunity for
thunderstorm initiation within the pre-frontal surface troughing
across parts of northeastern through south central Nebraska early
this evening. Given the warm/dry sub-cloud air, a few strong gusts
may accompany this activity before boundary-layer cooling diminishes
this potential later this evening.

..Kerr.. 03/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290547
SWODY1
SPC AC 290546

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the central and southern Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley
today through tonight. This may include an organizing cluster of
storms across parts of northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas
through western Missouri this evening into the overnight hours.

...Discussion...
Downstream of a blocked regime, including an increasingly prominent
mid-level high centered over the western Aleutians, models indicate
that a broad, deep mid-level low will continue to evolve across the northeastern Pacific. To the south of this feature, mid-level flow
is forecast to intensify in a westerly belt across the southern
mid-latitudes, toward the central and southern California coast.
This will be preceded inland by a number of weaker perturbations
across the southern Great Basin and Rockies, through the Great
Plains, where at least a couple may gradually begin to consolidate
into larger-scale troughing by 12Z Sunday.

A sub-1000 mb low has already formed within surface troughing to the
lee of the Colorado Rockies. However, models indicate little, if
any, further deepening through this period. The impact of
seasonably cold air, now nosing southward to the lee of the northern
Rockies, remains unclear. But guidance generally indicates that the
primary low will either migrate across or reform east-northeast of
the central Great Plains into Iowa by late tonight, with the
trailing cold front surging across the central Great Plains.

It appears that this will be preceded by a moistening southerly
return flow, which probably will include surface dew points rising
through the 60s across much of the lower southern into central Great
Plains by early this evening, and into portions of the Upper Midwest
by early Sunday. Models indicate that this will occur beneath a
narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air slowly spreading across and
east of the Great Plains into Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest...
By late this afternoon, the low-level moisture return, coupled with
insolation beneath the elevated mixed-layer, may contribute to CAPE
in excess of 1000 J/kg as the leading edge of mid-level cooling
overspreads portions of the central Great Plains into mid/lower
Missouri Valley vicinity. This is forecast to accompany an initial
short wave perturbation, though the stronger mid/upper forcing for
ascent may remain largely focused above cold surface-based air to
the northwest and north of the surface low. Still, the initiation
of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development along the
dryline may not be entirely out of the question, particularly across
north central Kansas, before propagating east-northeastward within
an environment conducive for supercell development.

There has been a more consistent signal evident in model output
concerning thunderstorm initiation with forcing accompanying a
trailing perturbation likely to impact the vicinity of the cold
front and dryline intersection by early this evening. It appears
that this will probably be focused across northwestern Oklahoma,
perhaps as far north as the Interstate 35 corridor of south central
Kansas and as far south as northwestern portions of the Greater
Oklahoma City area, before spreading east-northeastward toward the
lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau through early Sunday.

This may coincide with better boundary-layer moisture return
(include surface dew points increasing into the mid 60s F+, which
may contribute to CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) and strengthening
low-level and deep-layer shear, which is likely to become supportive
of a few supercells, at least initially. Activity may gradually
grow upscale into an organizing cluster, accompanied by potential
for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two.

Farther south, the risk for severe weather appears to remain largely conditional. HREF guidance and other model output suggest only low
probability for thunderstorm initiation overnight, roughly across
parts of the Edwards Plateau into central Texas, where moderate
potential boundary-layer instability may remain capped by warm, dry
air in the lower/mid-troposphere.

..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291244
SWODY1
SPC AC 291242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur across parts of the central/southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this
evening through the overnight hours. This may include an organized
thunderstorm cluster across parts of northern Oklahoma into
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri capable of producing very
large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Two mid-level shortwave troughs will impact the central/southern
Plains today, with the leading low-amplitude perturbation expected
to move quickly northeastward from the central High Plains to the
upper MS Valley by this evening. The trailing feature will advance
from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern High
Plains through the afternoon/evening, eventually reaching the
Ozarks/mid MO Valley by the end of the period. The primary surface
low over western KS this morning is forecast to develop
east-northeastward towards southern IA/northern MO by tonight. An
attendant cold front will sweep southward across parts of the
central/southern Plains through the period, while a dryline mixes
eastward over the southern High Plains this afternoon.

Low-level moisture is expected to continue streaming northward over
the central/southern Plains ahead of the cold front and dryline. A
substantial cap will likely inhibit robust convective development
until late this afternoon or early evening, with the cold
front/dryline intersection over western OK a potential location for
convective initiation by 23-03Z as large-scale ascent with the
trailing shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. Moderate to
strong MUCAPE will likely be present across western/northern OK and
southern KS, with steep mid-level lapse rates atop upper 50s to mid
60s surface dewpoints. Sufficiently strong deep-layer shear is also anticipated, which should support supercells initially, with an
associated threat for large to very large hail (potentially up to
1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). A brief window may also exist in the
early to mid evening for a tornado or two with any sustained,
surface-based supercell, as 0-1 km SRH increases in tandem with a
strengthening southerly low-level jet. Otherwise, a fairly quick
transition to a more linear/cluster mode and severe/damaging wind
threat is expected along or just ahead of the front late this
evening and overnight, as robust convection spreads northeastward
across the Ozarks and mid MS Valley before eventually weakening by
early Sunday morning.

The severe threat across southern OK into north/central TX ahead of
the front/dryline appears more conditional, as the better forcing
aloft will tend to remain farther north. Even so, given an otherwise
favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, large hail and
damaging winds will likely occur if any thunderstorms can initiate
and be sustained this evening/overnight. The chance of sustained
development still appears fairly low given latest guidance trends,
which supports maintaining the Marginal Risk for the conditional
severe threat with this update.

...Louisiana/Mississippi...
A remnant MCV will continue to move northeastward today across the
lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Modestly enhanced low-level southerly
flow (reference 12Z LCH sounding) should aid in the northward
transport of additional rich low-level moisture into parts of LA and
southern MS through the day. While deep-layer shear is expected to
remain fairly weak, sufficient low-level shear should be present to
support some updraft organization/rotation. Cells moving
northeastward and inland over southern LA may pose a threat for a
brief tornado or two as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes
with filtered daytime heating. Some guidance also suggests that one
or more loosely organized clusters may also have a threat for
isolated damaging winds this afternoon and early evening. Poor lapse
rates aloft, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear should
all act to keep the overall severe threat isolated/marginal.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291636
SWODY1
SPC AC 291634

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this
evening through the overnight hours. This may include an organized
thunderstorm cluster across parts of Oklahoma into southeastern
Kansas and western Missouri capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Water-vapor imagery shows a lead disturbance moving northeastward
across the central Great Plains towards the Upper Midwest, while an
upstream disturbance moves from eastern AZ into the southern Great
Plains tonight. The primary surface low over western KS this
morning is forecast to develop east-northeastward towards southern
IA/northern MO by tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep
southward across parts of the central/southern Plains through the
period, while a dryline mixes eastward over the southern High Plains
this afternoon.

Surface analysis shows lower 60s dewpoints streaming northward on
southerly low-level flow this morning from north TX to the KS/OK
border. A substantial cap will likely inhibit robust convective
development until late this afternoon or early evening, with the
cold front/dryline intersection over western OK a potential location
for convective initiation by 23-03Z as large-scale ascent with the
trailing shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector.

Moderate to strong buoyancy will likely be present across
western/northern OK and southern KS, with steep mid-level lapse
rates atop upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints. Forecast
soundings favor supercell development with activity that develops
south of the front across west-central OK. Large to very large hail (potentially up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) may accompany these
storms early in their convective life cycle. Despite increasing
CINH during the evening, lower 60s dewpoints in place with 500-mb
temperatures around -15 deg C may aid the development of a tornado
risk from central into northeast OK as storms mature and eventually
grow upscale. Severe gusts will probably become more prevalent with
time as this cluster moves east-northeast into parts of northeast OK
and eventually into MO later tonight, perhaps with the wind threat
slowly diminishing late.

Farther south, a conditional severe threat exists south of the Red
River from north TX southwestward into parts of the Concho Valley.
It appears the airmass will remain capped during the day in the
vicinity of the dryline, with storm development likely delayed until
late evening into the overnight per recent model guidance. Very
steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear magnitudes (50
kt effective shear), and 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE will support a severe
risk with any sustained storms. Models vary between very isolated
coverage and scattered storm coverage, especially over parts of
central into north TX. Given consistency in some model guidance
(e.g., HRRR model run to run, GFS, ECMWF) showing some convective
signal, have opted to increase hail probabilities to level-2 Slight
Risk overnight. Large to very large hail is possible with the
stronger storms (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter).

...Louisiana/Mississippi...
A remnant MCV will continue to move northeastward this afternoon
across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Although deep-layer shear
is expected to remain fairly weak, sufficient low-level shear should
be present to support some updraft organization and transient
rotation with the stronger storms. Cells moving
northeastward and inland over the central Gulf Coast may pose a
threat for a brief tornado, as well as a localized risk for damaging
gusts.

..Smith/Dean.. 03/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291943
SWODY1
SPC AC 291942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this
evening through the overnight hours. This may include an organized
thunderstorm cluster across parts of Oklahoma into southeastern
Kansas and western Missouri capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

...20z Update...
The Marginal Risk across portions of southeast Texas was to remove,
as thunderstorm activity has moved eastward. A Marginal Risk was
introduced across the Florida Keys. Otherwise, no changes were made
to the Slight Risk areas across the southern/central Plains. See
previous discussion for more information.

...Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley...
As thunderstorm activity progresses eastward through time this
evening, a corridor of greater damaging wind risk may develop. CAM
solutions continue to indicate upscale growth across portions of
northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas and western Missouri. Should
this line be able to organize and establish a strong cold pool, the
potential exists for a swath of damaging wind and perhaps some
significant winds given the steep mid-level lapse. Limiting factors
include the displacement of the stronger low-level jet winds to the
south and lagging of stronger mid-level flow across the Red River
into central Oklahoma. In addition, CAM guidance is split on a more
organized bowing line or a somewhat broken line of mixed mode
thunderstorms. Even so, a couple of gusts 70-80 mph could not be
ruled out.

...Florida Keys...
Recent radar imagery has shown a couple of supercells with
strengthening rotation moving northwestward near the lower Florida
Keys. The environment in this region is characterized by rich
moisture and storm relative helicity around 100-150 m2/s2. This will
support a risk for a tornado with inclusion of a Marginal Risk with
this update.

..Thornton/Smith.. 03/29/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/

...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Water-vapor imagery shows a lead disturbance moving northeastward
across the central Great Plains towards the Upper Midwest, while an
upstream disturbance moves from eastern AZ into the southern Great
Plains tonight. The primary surface low over western KS this
morning is forecast to develop east-northeastward towards southern
IA/northern MO by tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep
southward across parts of the central/southern Plains through the
period, while a dryline mixes eastward over the southern High Plains
this afternoon.

Surface analysis shows lower 60s dewpoints streaming northward on
southerly low-level flow this morning from north TX to the KS/OK
border. A substantial cap will likely inhibit robust convective
development until late this afternoon or early evening, with the
cold front/dryline intersection over western OK a potential location
for convective initiation by 23-03Z as large-scale ascent with the
trailing shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector.

Moderate to strong buoyancy will likely be present across
western/northern OK and southern KS, with steep mid-level lapse
rates atop upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints. Forecast
soundings favor supercell development with activity that develops
south of the front across west-central OK. Large to very large hail (potentially up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) may accompany these
storms early in their convective life cycle. Despite increasing
CINH during the evening, lower 60s dewpoints in place with 500-mb
temperatures around -15 deg C may aid the development of a tornado
risk from central into northeast OK as storms mature and eventually
grow upscale. Severe gusts will probably become more prevalent with
time as this cluster moves east-northeast into parts of northeast OK
and eventually into MO later tonight, perhaps with the wind threat
slowly diminishing late.

Farther south, a conditional severe threat exists south of the Red
River from north TX southwestward into parts of the Concho Valley.
It appears the airmass will remain capped during the day in the
vicinity of the dryline, with storm development likely delayed until
late evening into the overnight per recent model guidance. Very
steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear magnitudes (50
kt effective shear), and 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE will support a severe
risk with any sustained storms. Models vary between very isolated
coverage and scattered storm coverage, especially over parts of
central into north TX. Given consistency in some model guidance
(e.g., HRRR model run to run, GFS, ECMWF) showing some convective
signal, have opted to increase hail probabilities to level-2 Slight
Risk overnight. Large to very large hail is possible with the
stronger storms (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter).

...Louisiana/Mississippi...
A remnant MCV will continue to move northeastward this afternoon
across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Although deep-layer shear
is expected to remain fairly weak, sufficient low-level shear should
be present to support some updraft organization and transient
rotation with the stronger storms. Cells moving
northeastward and inland over the central Gulf Coast may pose a
threat for a brief tornado, as well as a localized risk for damaging
gusts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300051
SWODY1
SPC AC 300050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Intensifying thunderstorm development across parts of the southern
Great Plains this evening will pose a risk for large hail, damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading toward
the lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau and Ark-La-Tex vicinity
overnight.

...01Z Update...
A notable cold front continues to nose southward through the central
Great Plains, and is in the process of overtaking the dryline across
eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. This is occurring to the
southwest of a sub-1000 mb surface low, which probably will not
undergo much further deepening as it migrates across northwestern
Missouri into eastern Iowa by late tonight, based on model output.

Southerly return flow within the warm sector continues to moisten
beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the
high plains, and this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the
order of 1000-2000+ J/kg.

Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a short wave trough
is now overspreading the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, and
is forecast to gradually pivot northeastward toward the lower
Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau vicinity through late tonight.
Thunderstorm activity is beginning to initiate along the cold front
across eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and central Texas and,
as initially substantive mid-level inhibition continues to erode, a
further increase in coverage and intensity is likely this evening
into the overnight hours.

Downstream of the exit region of an intensifying, cyclonic mid-level
jet core (to 70+ kt around 500 mb), forcing for ascent still appears
to offer the best potential for an upscale growing and organizing
convective system. This still appears most probable across parts of
north central Oklahoma through southwestern and central Missouri,
and may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind
gusts overnight, if it does not become undercut by the southeastward
advancing cold front.

..Kerr.. 03/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300538
SWODY1
SPC AC 300537

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SERN IL...IN...WRN AND CENTRAL
OH...SERN MO...CNTRL AND ERN AR...KY...TN...NWRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL
MS...NRN LA...NERN TX...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development is likely to become widespread across the
Ohio Valley southwestward through the Tennessee and lower
Mississippi Valleys this afternoon into tonight. Initially, this
activity will pose a risk for large large hail. A few tornadoes are
also possible, before damaging wind gusts become the more prominent
potential severe hazard this evening into tonight.

...Discussion...
To the north of an intense, zonal jet across the southern
mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a significant mid-level low is
forecast to progress slowly eastward across the northeastern
Pacific, toward the Pacific Northwest coast, accompanied by a deep
occluded surface cyclone. This has been preceded inland by a series
of less prominent perturbations, a couple of which may be
consolidating into more notable larger-scale mid-level troughing to
the east-northeast of the southern Rockies.

Models continue to indicate that this evolving mid-level wave will
accelerate into a broadly confluent regime across the Ohio Valley
through lower Great Lakes region, between a significant short wave
trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and downstream ridging
overspreading the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast. Models suggest
that an associated surface low, likely initially over eastern Iowa
at the outset of the period, will continue an east-northeastward
migration into and across the Great Lakes, but it may not undergo
substantive further deepening until late this afternoon into tonight
across the lower Great Lakes into southeastern Ontario/southwestern
Quebec.

Trailing this cyclone, a notable cold front is forecast to progress southeastward through the southern Great Plains, and eastward
through the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and middle Ohio Valley by
late tonight. The front will continue to be preceded by a
moistening southerly return flow, which may include surface dew
points increasing through the lower/mid 60s F as far north as
southern portions of the Great Lakes region, at least initially
beneath a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from
the high plains.

...Ohio Valley into southeastern Great Plains...
Models suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of
sizable conditional and convective instability, with a fairly broad
reservoir of CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg evolving across the
southeastern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley, as far
north as the confluence with the Ohio River by late this afternoon.
Farther north, mixed-layer CAPE is likely to increase in excess of
1000 J/kg during the day, within a narrower corridor
across/north-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley, where
mid/upper forcing for ascent is likely to initiate intensifying
thunderstorm activity by early to mid afternoon. This may include a
few supercells posing a risk for large hail and potential for a
couple of tornadoes, before convection tends to gradually
consolidate and grow upscale, accompanied by increasing risk for
damaging wind gusts.

This initial activity may be maintained northeastward and eastward
through much of the Ohio Valley by late this evening, before tending
to weaken while acquiring less unstable inflow. Meanwhile,
subsequent initiation of storms is likely southwestward ahead of the
cold front, across the lower Ohio Valley/Mid South toward the
Ark-La-Tex later this afternoon into this evening. It appears
possible that this may coincide with strengthening
lower/mid-tropospheric flow accompanying a trailing jet streak. And
a period of intensifying discrete supercell development might not be
out of the question, before activity tends to grow upscale into one
or more organizing clusters. Depending on how quickly this occurs,
there may be a conditional risk for a couple of strong tornadoes,
before damaging straight line winds, and perhaps brief tornadoes
with evolving near-surface meso vortices, becomes the more prominent
hazard southeastward into the Gulf Coast states overnight.

...Florida Peninsula vicinity...
HREF and NCEP SREF guidance indicates rather high probabilities for thunderstorm development, as weak mid-level troughing overspreads
the peninsula today. Beneath modestly cool mid-level temperatures,
it appears that boundary-layer moisture will support moderate CAPE,
and thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to a few stronger
storms with small, melting hail contributing to potential for
localized damaging downbursts.

..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301247
SWODY1
SPC AC 301245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight across
a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley
into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of
widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail
and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of
these tornadoes could be strong.

...Synopsis...
A broad area of severe potential remains apparent today and tonight,
with all severe hazards likely. The main mid-level shortwave trough
of interest will move quickly northeastward from the Ozarks/mid MO
Valley to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today, as larger-scale
upper troughing gradually becomes more established over the MS
Valley through the period. At the surface, the primary surface low
over eastern IA this morning is expected to develop northeastward
towards northern Lower MI by this evening, and eventually into
southern Ontario/Quebec late tonight. An attendant cold front will
sweep east-southeastward over much of the Midwest/OH Valley and
mid/lower MS Valley through the period, while a warm front lifts
northward in tandem with the surface low over portions of the Great
Lakes. A dryline will mix eastward this afternoon across parts of
north-central to south-central TX.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes...
Mainly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts
of northeast MO in associated with the northeastward-advancing
shortwave trough. This activity should generally remain sub-severe,
although isolated strong/gusty winds could occur with modest daytime
heating this morning. Otherwise, a corridor of weak to moderate
instability is expected to develop ahead of the cold front by early
afternoon. Robust convection appears likely to initiate by 18-19Z,
and it will spread quickly northeastward across much of the OH
Valley and southern Great Lakes regions this afternoon and evening.
A 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet attendant to the shortwave
trough will provide ample deep-layer shear for organized convection.

Current expectations are for an initially more discrete mode, with
supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around
1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates and favorable deep-layer shear. A fairly quick transition
(within a few hours of initiation) to a more linear/cluster mode is
anticipated as the cold front surges eastward. Multiple swaths of
numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear
likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over
the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. With a 35-45 kt
south-southwesterly low-level jet also present, strong low-level
shear will likely support a threat for tornadoes, both with initial
supercells and any lines/clusters that eventually form. Given the
strength of the low-level flow, some of the tornadoes could be
strong, especially with sustained supercells in the lower OH Valley
vicinity. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should
continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection
outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over
the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians.

...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi
Valley/Mid-South and Southeast...
A band of mostly elevated convection developed earlier this morning
over portions of north-central/east TX, likely in association with
large-scale ascent preceding a westerly mid/upper-level jet nosing
into central TX. While the overall environment remains quite
favorable for organized severe convection, messy convective modes
have tended to keep the severe hail threat isolated so far. Still,
some risk for hail will continue through the morning. Strong
destabilization is anticipated today ahead of this convection and a
separate area of elevated thunderstorms over southern MO. Mid to
upper 60s surface dewpoints will continue to stream northward across
TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast
ahead of the cold front. This rich low-level moisture, combined with
very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating, are
expected to foster around 2000-3000 MLCAPE by early to mid
afternoon.

Rapid and intense thunderstorm initiation will likely occur by
18-21Z from parts of north-central/east TX to the Mid-South/mid MS
Valley. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of
deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and
rotation. A very favorable setup remains apparent for large to very
large hail, as strong instability and deep-layer shear combine with
steep mid-level lapse rates and low freezing levels. Some of this
very large hail could reach up to 2-3 inches in diameter. With the
primary shortwave trough ejecting to the northeast, low-level winds
are forecast to remain fairly subdued through the afternoon and
early evening, before gradually strengthening again tonight through
early Monday morning. A risk for several tornadoes should be focused
over parts of the Mid-South, a few of which could be strong given a
favorable supercell mode. Similar to farther north in the OH Valley,
a transition to more linear/cluster mode is expected this evening
and overnight as the cold front continues advancing southeastward. A
risk for line-embedded tornadoes should continue, and an increase in
the severe/damaging wind threat is likely through the end of the
period. Based on latest guidance trends, and to overlap with the Day
2 Convective Outlook, adjustments have been made to the
southern/eastern extent of the risk areas across the lower MS Valley
and Southeast.

...Florida Peninsula...
A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL today.
Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height
through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for
some thunderstorm organization. Any convection that develops in
tandem with daytime heating this afternoon and early evening could
pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. Some
adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the FL
Peninsula based on latest guidance trends.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301622
SWODY1
SPC AC 301621

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a
broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into
the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of
widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail
and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of
these tornadoes could be strong.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level
shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an
upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the
base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface
analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing
cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into
eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH
Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and
focus thunderstorm development.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes...
Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east
of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt
southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture
into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating
through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms
developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will
overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer
shear for organized convection.

The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear
modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large
hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional
upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition
to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where
hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular
(discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be
greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong
tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat
will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of
numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear
likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over
the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds
and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours,
until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and
eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central
Appalachians.

...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi
Valley/Mid-South and Southeast...
Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to
upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across
TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast
ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid
and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts
of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected
initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust
updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for
large to very large hail with the stronger supercells.

It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus
over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the
southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards
evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong
buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F
dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to
westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in
which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more
favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may
maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into
western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe
storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex
moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states
during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to
very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely
accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall
coverage and intensity during the late night.

...Florida Peninsula...
A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this
afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile
with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer
shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally
driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds.

..Smith/Moore.. 03/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301940
SWODY1
SPC AC 301939

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a
broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into
the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of
widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail
and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of
these tornadoes could be strong.

...20z Update...
Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to remove portion of
the Marginal across north-central Texas into Missouri behind the dry
line. Further development along the dry line into Arkansas is
expected through the afternoon/evening. Daytime heating has allowed
an axis of MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg to develop from far southern
Texas into Louisiana. This will continue to nose northward into
portions of Arkansas through time, with weakening of MLCIN.
Supercell development is expected with potential for very large hail
with any stronger discrete supercells.

Further north, minor adjustments were made to the Marginal and
Slight in the Midwest behind ongoing convection and cold front.A
line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of Indiana
and central/northern Illinois. This line has produced measured
severe gusts 60-70 mph and will likely pose a continued damaging
wind threat across central/northern Indiana/southern Michigan
through the afternoon/evening. A favored corridor of stronger wind
is possible across central/northern Indiana, as has been indicated
in recent WoFS runs.

See previous discussion for more information.

..Thornton.. 03/30/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level
shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an
upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the
base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface
analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing
cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into
eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH
Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and
focus thunderstorm development.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes...
Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east
of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt
southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture
into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating
through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms
developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will
overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer
shear for organized convection.

The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear
modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large
hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional
upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition
to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where
hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular
(discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be
greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong
tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat
will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of
numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear
likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over
the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds
and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours,
until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and
eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central
Appalachians.

...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi
Valley/Mid-South and Southeast...
Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to
upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across
TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast
ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid
and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts
of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected
initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust
updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for
large to very large hail with the stronger supercells.

It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus
over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the
southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards
evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong
buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F
dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to
westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in
which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more
favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may
maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into
western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe
storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex
moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states
during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to
very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely
accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall
coverage and intensity during the late night.

...Florida Peninsula...
A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this
afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile
with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer
shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally
driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 310053
SWODY1
SPC AC 310051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN
OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH
OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA...

...SUMMARY...
An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue
to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and
Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still
expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening,
which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind
gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak.

...01z Update...
As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle
Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant
short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale
downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence
Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may
finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across
southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing
cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio
Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and
southern Great Plains.

In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air
continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability
beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across
southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and
northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing
pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf
moisture return.

...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes...
The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is
embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly
deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for
damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before
more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this
evening.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast...
Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in
convective development is likely later this evening into the
overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low
amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern
Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level
inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective
growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe
hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the
evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by
increasing risk for strong gusts overnight.

..Kerr.. 03/31/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 310547
SWODY1
SPC AC 310545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...THE FL PNHDL...MUCH OF
GA...SC...AND CNTRL NC...

...SUMMARY...
One or two organized thunderstorm clusters may overspread much of
the Southeast today, accompanied by swaths of strong to severe wind
gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.

...Discussion...
After a period of deepening across southern Ontario into Quebec,
models indicate that a modest surface cyclone will migrate across
the St. Lawrence Valley into the Canadian Maritimes during this
period, in advance of a significant mid-level trough gradually
turning east of northwestern Ontario. As this occurs, a lower
amplitude mid-level perturbation of mid-latitude Pacific origins is
forecast to accelerate east of the south central Great Plains
through the Mid South, southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic coast
vicinity by late tonight.

Upstream, a seasonably strong mid/upper jet is forecast to continue
digging inland of the California coast through the southern Rockies,
as flow undergoes amplification across the southern mid- and
subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. It appears that this
will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado
Rockies by late tonight. However, through daybreak Tuesday,
appreciable low-level moisture return may be confined to a narrow
plume west of the lower Rio Grande Valley into portions of the Texas
South Plains, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air, in the wake of
a stalling cold front near or just inland of the Gulf into southern
Mid Atlantic coasts.

Prior to this frontal passage, mid 60s to near 70F surface dew
points may linger across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley at
the outset of the period, while advecting east-northeastward across
parts of the eastern Gulf into south Atlantic coast states, beneath
the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from
the Great Plains.

...Eastern Gulf/South Atlantic Coast states...
Associated with the low amplitude short wave emerging from the south
central Great Plains, there remains a considerable signal, within
model output, that forcing for ascent within the moderately unstable
(including 1000-2000+ J/kg CAPE) pre-frontal environment will be
sufficient to contribute to the evolution of an organized cluster of
convection across Mississippi and Louisiana by 12Z this morning. It
appears that destabilization ahead of this activity will be
sufficient to maintain or support renewed intensification across Alabama/Georgia and adjacent portions of Florida, into the
Carolinas, by late afternoon or early this evening. Aided by
ambient flow associated with a progressive 30-50+ kt jet in the
850-500 mb layer, at least some convection-allowing guidance and
other model output is suggestive that convectively augmented
rear-inflow may support one or more swaths of damaging wind gusts.

...Northern Mid Atlantic...
Although stronger low-level wind fields will tend to shift northeast
of the region early today with the progression of the Canadian
cyclone, deep-layer shear will remain sufficiently strong to support
a risk for severe convection. It appears that low-level moistening
and daytime heating will contribute to at least a narrow corridor of
weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization along the
pre-frontal surface troughing by late this afternoon. This may
provide the focus for increasing thunderstorm development,
particularly as the instability axis is overtaken by the cold front
by this evening. Isolated supercells are possible initially, posing
a risk for severe hail, and at least some risk for a tornado, before
locally damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential
severe hazard as convection increases in coverage.

..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/31/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 311239
SWODY1
SPC AC 311238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the
Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of
damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern
Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while
another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the
eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop
northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough,
while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much
of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor
of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day.

...Southeast to the Carolinas...
Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the
northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although
there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate
instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to
support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across
the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon.
While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across
this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft
rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and
a threat for a couple of tornadoes.

Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward
extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating
of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak
destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows
re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas
by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward
across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as
strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in
tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to
support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a
bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level
flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few
embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist.

...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast...
Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the
cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread
east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With
enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead
shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for
damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually
moves offshore.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 311632
SWODY1
SPC AC 311630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
GEORGIA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of
the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of
damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid-level
shortwave trough rapidly moving northeast over the Lower Great Lakes
and adjacent Canada, while another disturbance moves from the Ozarks
into the upper OH Valley/southern Appalachians by early evening.
The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec while a
trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the
Atlantic States and Southeast.

...Southeast to the Carolinas...
A squall line is ongoing from the southern Appalachians
south-southwest to the mouth of the MS River. An extensive cloud
shield ahead of the convective line will tend to limit stronger
heating this afternoon. However, a moist airmass characterized by
lower 60s north to 70 deg F dewpoints along the Gulf Coast, will
yield weak to moderate buoyancy.

Despite considerable cloudiness, filtered heating will probably
result in a re-invigoration of the convective line. Some
strengthening of low to mid-level southwesterly flow may focus a
corridor of more concentrated wind-damage potential from central GA northeastward through portions of the central and eastern Carolinas.
The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature.
Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist.

...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast...
Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic
states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front. Appreciable
heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through
the upper 70s deg F. Despite some mixing of boundary-layer
moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms
developing this afternoon. Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and
moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered
damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph).

..Smith/Moore.. 03/31/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 311954
SWODY1
SPC AC 311952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of
the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of
damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.

...20z Update...
Multiple linearly organized clusters are ongoing late this
afternoon, focused across western South Carolina, and east-central/south-central Georgia into northern Florida near the
Big Bend. Damaging wind potential, along with some QLCS-related
tornado risk, will continue to be prevalent as storms continue east/northeastward across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and toward
the coastal Southeast. Farther north, scattered storm development is
still expected by early evening near/east of the Blue Ridge toward
the Delmarva and eastern PA and NJ vicinity. See Mesoscale
Discussions and prior outlook discussion below for additional
details.

Otherwise, have added low severe wind-related probabilities across
the southern Florida Peninsula where the east coast sea breeze could
focus a few strong/locally severe storms until around sunset.

..Guyer.. 03/31/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid-level
shortwave trough rapidly moving northeast over the Lower Great Lakes
and adjacent Canada, while another disturbance moves from the Ozarks
into the upper OH Valley/southern Appalachians by early evening.
The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec while a
trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the
Atlantic States and Southeast.

...Southeast to the Carolinas...
A squall line is ongoing from the southern Appalachians
south-southwest to the mouth of the MS River. An extensive cloud
shield ahead of the convective line will tend to limit stronger
heating this afternoon. However, a moist airmass characterized by
lower 60s north to 70 deg F dewpoints along the Gulf Coast, will
yield weak to moderate buoyancy.

Despite considerable cloudiness, filtered heating will probably
result in a re-invigoration of the convective line. Some
strengthening of low to mid-level southwesterly flow may focus a
corridor of more concentrated wind-damage potential from central GA northeastward through portions of the central and eastern Carolinas.
The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature.
Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist.

...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast...
Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic
states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front. Appreciable
heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through
the upper 70s deg F. Despite some mixing of boundary-layer
moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms
developing this afternoon. Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and
moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered
damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph).

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010053
SWODY1
SPC AC 010051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NC...ERN VA...SERN PA...THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND SRN/CNTRL NJ...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm activity may continue to pose the risk for locally
damaging wind gusts while overspreading the Chesapeake Bay and
northern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity late this evening.

...01Z Update...

...Mid Atlantic...
Given the modest strength of the southwesterly deep-layer mean flow
(around 40 kt), with the loss of boundary-layer heating,
thermodynamic profiles near/east of the pre-frontal surface trough
across the Mid Atlantic vicinity are becoming increasingly marginal
for convective development capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

...Florida...
A couple of strong thunderstorms linger near a weak surface trough
across the east central Florida Peninsula, where mixed-layer CAPE is
moderately large, but diminishing with the loss of daytime heating.
Given the rather weak lower/mid-tropospheric flow and modest
deep-layer shear, thunderstorm intensities are expected to wane
within the next hour or two.

...Deep South Texas...
Another isolated strong to severe thunderstorm has developed to the
east of Laredo near a diffuse dryline, as an initial severe storm
near the San Antonio vicinity dissipated. However, given the
inhibition associated with warm, dry lower/mid-tropospheric air
present across the region, this latest cell is not expected to be
long-lived, as boundary-layer cooling proceeds and inhibition
increases further.

..Kerr.. 04/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010539
SWODY1
SPC AC 010538

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Rapid, intense thunderstorm development is possible this evening
across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. A few
supercells posing a risk for large hail and a couple of strong
tornadoes are possible, particularly across parts of north central
Oklahoma into south central Kansas.

...Discussion...
Amplification of mid/upper flow across the southern mid-latitudes of
the eastern Pacific into western North America appears underway,
with a seasonably strong cyclonic jet now digging inland of the central/southern California coast. An initially significant
mid-level low within the large-scale troughing to the north of this
feature appears to be in the process of devolving into at least a
couple of significant short wave perturbations as it progresses
inland of the northern Pacific coast.

Models indicate that the lead perturbation will progress across the
Rockies into the Great Plains today through tonight, and contribute
to significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis over the north
central Great Plains through middle Missouri Valley by 12Z
Wednesday. A notable trailing perturbation is forecast to dig
inland of the Pacific coast, near and west of the Sierra Nevada.

Given the forecast synoptic pattern evolution, and intensifying
lower/mid tropospheric wind fields (including 50-70+ kt southerly
around 850 mb and 90-100+ kt southwesterly) across the south central
Great Plains into lower Missouri Valley late this evening through
early Wednesday, the environment would seem at least conditionally
supportive of an outbreak of severe thunderstorms. However,
low-level moisture return, in the wake of a still ongoing intrusion
of cool/dry air to the east of the Rockies, remains a source of
uncertainty, and a potentially limiting factor, concerning the risk
for severe thunderstorms today through tonight.

...Great Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest...
An initial narrow plume of low-level moisture return appears
underway up the Rio Grande Valley toward the Texas South Plains.
However, models continue to indicate that boundary-layer moistening, characterized by lower/mid 60s surface dew points, may not begin
advecting to the north of the Red River until late afternoon. Even
so, there appears potential for this moisture to rapidly advect
northward, within deepening surface troughing, across parts of
western and central Oklahoma into central Kansas through late
evening.

In the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that there may be
sufficient destabilization to support the initiation of widely
scattered thunderstorm development near the sharpening dryline, from
parts of west central Kansas into the Texas Edwards Plateau vicinity
by late afternoon. Strongest storms probably will be focused across
parts of southwestern Oklahoma into portions of the Texas South
Plains, where the environment may become conducive to the evolution
of supercells, though substantial mid-level inhibition may tend to
limit eastward propagation away from the dryline.

The most significant convective development still seems most
probable during the mid to late evening, in association with the
better low-level moisture return and destabilization, which is
forecast to coincide with the substantive intensification of the
wind fields in the 850-500 mb layer across the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandle vicinity through southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma. This
may focus near/east-northeast of a developing triple point low,
generally forecast to track by a number of models across
northwestern Oklahoma through south central Kansas during the
02/03-06Z time frame.

Although the extent of upscale convective growth across this region
remains unclear, the environment appears conducive at least to the
evolution of several discrete supercells. These may be accompanied
by large hail initially, and increasing tornadic potential in the
presence of enlarging low-level hodographs and a moistening boundary
layer across and northeast of the I-35 corridor.

It is possible that elevated moisture return and destabilization
could be sufficient to support a risk for thunderstorms capable of
producing severe hail as far northeast as portions of the Upper
Midwest by late tonight.

...Interior Valley of central California...
Beneath cold air and an associated cyclonic vorticity center
forecast to overspread the region late this afternoon, it appears
that the environment could become conducive to an isolated strong
storm or two, which gust pose a risk for small hail, gusty winds and
perhaps a brief tornado or two.

..Kerr/Weinman.. 04/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011252
SWODY1
SPC AC 011250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening
over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a
risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible,
particularly across north-central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A
line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for
severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri
tonight.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing over the western CONUS will undergo amplification
today as multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs move
east-northeastward across the Southwest and into the
central/northern Plains. A pronounced southwesterly mid-level jet
will also overspread the southern/central Plains this evening and
overnight. Low-level moisture centered around 850 mb has been
streaming northward this morning across TX in association with a
strong southerly low-level jet. Surface dewpoints have also been
increasing across the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. This
trend is expected to continue through the day, as a surface low
deepens as it develops from eastern CO into western KS through the
afternoon. This low is forecast to further develop/reform across
southwest KS into northwest OK as ascent associated with the
mid-level jet overspreads the High Plains. A dryline will extend
southward from this low across western OK into northwest TX. A cold
front is expected to sweep east-southeastward over much of the
central Plains and southern High Plains overnight, as the surface
low develops northeastward towards eastern NE/western IA by early
Wednesday morning.

...Central Plains into Missouri...
It appears likely that the cap will erode over the central High
Plains by late afternoon or early evening. At least isolated
thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK vicinity, and subsequently spread
quickly northeastward. Moderate to locally strong instability,
coupled with 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear, will easily support
supercells, with an associated threat for very large hail (up to 2-3
inches in diameter). As the southerly low-level jet markedly
increases this evening, hodographs will enlarge and become
elongated, with ample effective SRH to support tornadoes with any
sustained supercells. Given the strength of the low-level flow
expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb) and degree of low-level
shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear possible. A line of
convection should also erupt along the cold front in north-central
to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward into parts of western
MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with the time of night, the
overall environment appears quite favorable for severe/damaging
winds, including the potential for isolated 75+ mph gusts. The
Enhanced Risk has been expanded east-northeastward some across
eastern KS into western MO to account for this scenario.

...Southern Plains...
There is somewhat less confidence in convective initiation farther
south into central/southern OK and western north TX late this
afternoon and early evening. While low-level moisture will be
greater across this area compared to locations farther north, with
related stronger instability, large-scale ascent is forecast to be a
bit weaker/delayed. Even so, a very favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environment will exist across this region, with MLCAPE
ranging generally 2000-3000 J/kg by late afternoon, and 50+ kt of
effective bulk shear present. Any supercell that initiates along the
dryline, and which can be sustained into the early evening, would
pose a risk for both very large hail and a strong tornado. While
overall thunderstorm coverage may be more isolated with southward
extent in OK, have opted to expand the Enhanced Risk southwestward
along the I-44/I-35 corridors to account for an intense supercell or
two which could form. Another round of severe convection may develop
late tonight into early Wednesday morning as the cold front surges east-southeastward. Severe/damaging winds should be the main threat
with this activity if it forms. But, given the strong low-level
shear and ample MUCAPE forecast, tornadoes and perhaps large hail
will also be a concern with any embedded supercells.

...Central Valley of California...
With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the
western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon
heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a
risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado or two
across portions of the Central Valley in CA.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011637
SWODY1
SPC AC 011635

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening
over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a
risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible,
particularly across central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for
severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri
tonight.

...OK-TX...
Visible-satellite imagery shows stratus and moisture streaming
northward through TX into OK on strengthening southerly low-level
flow. Increasingly rich moisture around 850 mb layer will mix
downward beneath an initially strong capping inversion sampled on 12
UTC area observed soundings. Heating of an increasingly moist and destabilizing boundary layer will result in a very unstable airmass
late this afternoon into the early evening. Models show lower 60s
dewpoints reaching I-40 by early evening. Very strong and favorable
wind profiles for supercells will support rapid supercell
development if storms initiate (22-01 UTC). Models differ on the
diurnal storm coverage casting considerable uncertainty---but some
guidance has trended towards at least one to a few dryline discrete
supercells across the southern Great Plains. Very large hail and
tornadoes would be the primary hazards. Enlarged and elongated
hodographs would support the potential for strong tornadoes provided
a sustained supercell develops late this afternoon/evening. Later
tonight, models show richer moisture with a very unstable airmass
being maintained. Of particular note is forcing for ascent
perturbing the airmass from north-central TX into OK near and ahead
of the front. A nocturnal risk for renewed supercell development
capable of all hazards would be strongly favored with any activity
not undercut by the front---mainly during the 08-12 UTC period.

...Central Plains into Missouri...
Not much change in thinking from the prior forecast. The cap is
forecast to erode on the northern periphery of more appreciable
moisture over the central High Plains by late afternoon or early
evening. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop
near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK
vicinity, and subsequently spread quickly northeastward. Moderate
to locally strong instability, coupled with 50-60 kt of effective
bulk shear, will easily support supercells, with an associated
threat for very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). As the
southerly low-level jet markedly increases this evening, hodographs
will enlarge and become elongated, with ample effective SRH to
support tornadoes with any sustained supercells. Given the strength
of the low-level flow expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb)
and degree of low-level shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear
possible. A line of convection should also erupt along the cold
front in north-central to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward
into parts of western MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with
the time of night, the overall environment appears quite favorable
for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for isolated 75+
mph gusts.

...Central Valley of California...
With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the
western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon
heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a
risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado
across portions of the Central Valley in CA.

..Smith/Moore.. 04/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011945
SWODY1
SPC AC 011943

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS....

...SUMMARY...
Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening
over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a
risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible,
particularly across central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for
severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri
tonight.

No changes have been made to the ongoing convective outlook severe
risk areas. Low-level moisture is streaming northward, roughly in
line with model guidance. This will lead to a corridor of strong
instability and only weak cap by late afternoon to the east of the
surface dryline. Widely scattered intense supercells are expected
to develop by early evening along the dryline from central KS into
central OK. Very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameters
suggest all severe hazards are possible with these storms, including
very large hail and a strong tornado or two.

Overnight, the primary upper trough and associated 100 knot
mid-level jet max will move into the Plains states, leading to the
development of another round thunderstorms over eastern KS/OK before
12z. These storms will also pose a risk of large hail and a few
tornadoes.

..Hart.. 04/01/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025/

...OK-TX...
Visible-satellite imagery shows stratus and moisture streaming
northward through TX into OK on strengthening southerly low-level
flow. Increasingly rich moisture around 850 mb layer will mix
downward beneath an initially strong capping inversion sampled on 12
UTC area observed soundings. Heating of an increasingly moist and destabilizing boundary layer will result in a very unstable airmass
late this afternoon into the early evening. Models show lower 60s
dewpoints reaching I-40 by early evening. Very strong and favorable
wind profiles for supercells will support rapid supercell
development if storms initiate (22-01 UTC). Models differ on the
diurnal storm coverage casting considerable uncertainty---but some
guidance has trended towards at least one to a few dryline discrete
supercells across the southern Great Plains. Very large hail and
tornadoes would be the primary hazards. Enlarged and elongated
hodographs would support the potential for strong tornadoes provided
a sustained supercell develops late this afternoon/evening. Later
tonight, models show richer moisture with a very unstable airmass
being maintained. Of particular note is forcing for ascent
perturbing the airmass from north-central TX into OK near and ahead
of the front. A nocturnal risk for renewed supercell development
capable of all hazards would be strongly favored with any activity
not undercut by the front---mainly during the 08-12 UTC period.

...Central Plains into Missouri...
Not much change in thinking from the prior forecast. The cap is
forecast to erode on the northern periphery of more appreciable
moisture over the central High Plains by late afternoon or early
evening. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop
near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK
vicinity, and subsequently spread quickly northeastward. Moderate
to locally strong instability, coupled with 50-60 kt of effective
bulk shear, will easily support supercells, with an associated
threat for very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). As the
southerly low-level jet markedly increases this evening, hodographs
will enlarge and become elongated, with ample effective SRH to
support tornadoes with any sustained supercells. Given the strength
of the low-level flow expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb)
and degree of low-level shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear
possible. A line of convection should also erupt along the cold
front in north-central to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward
into parts of western MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with
the time of night, the overall environment appears quite favorable
for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for isolated 75+
mph gusts.

...Central Valley of California...
With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the
western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon
heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a
risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado
across portions of the Central Valley in CA.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020116
SWODY1
SPC AC 020115

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0815 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storm development will be possible into the
overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains, with
large hail and severe gusts. A tornado will be possible. Late
tonight, an organized line of thunderstorms with severe wind gusts
and isolated large hail is expected to develop across parts of
central and eastern Kansas.

...Southern Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a southwest flow pattern over
the central U.S., with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs
moving through the flow. One shortwave trough appears to be in
south-central Kansas and western Oklahoma. This feature is likely
supporting isolated convective development to the east of a
Kansas-Oklahoma dryline. To the east of the dryline early this
evening, surface dewpoints are in the 50s F across south-central
Kansas and near 60 F over much of Oklahoma. MLCAPE to the east of
the dryline is estimated by the RAP to be between 1000 and 2000
J/kg. Moistening will likely continue to occur across the southern
Plains this evening, and convective initiation will be possible
along a front moving southeastward across the region. RAP forecast
soundings late this evening show strong deep-layer shear and steep
mid-level lapse rates. This will support isolated severe storm
development with large hail.

After midnight, some model solutions produce scattered thunderstorms
across parts of central and northern Oklahoma. If this occurs, then
a threat for supercell with large to very large hail, and wind
damage will be possible. A tornado threat could also develop.

Further southwest into parts of the low Rolling Plains of
north-central and southwest Texas, isolated thunderstorm development
will be possible this evening. Convective coverage is expected to
remain very limited due to a lack of large-scale ascent. If a cell
can initiate and grow upscale, then large hail will be possible. A
few severe wind gusts could also occur.

...Central Plains...
The latest surface analysis has a 986 mb low in northwest Kansas. A
cold front is moving through western Kansas, with a warm front
moving through northeast Kansas. A dryline extends southward from
the low across west-central Kansas. Isolated convective initiation
may take place near the dryline this evening across south-central
and southeastern Kansas. A north-to-south axis of moderate
instability is analyzed across central Kansas, where MLCAPE is
estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, regional
WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 70 knot range, with a
curved hodograph in the lowest 3 km AGL. Also, forecast soundings in
central Kansas have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment could support isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.
A tornado threat will also be possible, especially as the storms
move eastward into a strengthening low-level jet later tonight. A
strong tornado could occur. Severe storms will also be possible
further north into parts of southeast Nebraska. These storms should
be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.

Later tonight, convection is expected to develop along and ahead of
a cold front moving southeastward across central Kansas. Model
forecasts suggest that a line will remain organized through late in
the period, possibly affecting eastern Kansas. Severe wind gusts
will be possible near and just ahead of this convective line.

...North-central California...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough
moving eastward across northern California. Ahead of this feature,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from the northern
Sierras southward into the Sacramento Valley. The airmass along this
corridor is weakly unstable, according to the RAP. Forecast
soundings in the Sacramento Valley have SBCAPE of 250 to 500 J/kg,
0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots,and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7
C/km. This environment may support a marginal severe threat this
evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 04/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020556
SWODY1
SPC AC 020554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado outbreak is expected today and tonight from parts of the
mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys westward into the eastern
Ozarks. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple long-track EF3+
tornadoes appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, severe wind gusts,
and large hail will be possible across a broad area from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes.

...Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys/Eastern Ozarks...
A potent mid-level trough will move northeastward across the central
U.S. today, as a mid-level jet strengthens to over 120 knots, and
ejects rapidly northeastward into the Upper Midwest. At the surface,
a low will move into the upper Mississippi Valley, as a cold front
advances eastward through the central states. Ahead of the front, a
moist airmass will advect northward into the Ozarks and lower to mid Mississippi Valley, with surface dewpoints increasing into the mid
to upper 60s F. While storms will likely be ongoing near the front
during the day, the airmass further to the east is forecast to
remain undisturbed and will significantly destabilize during the
day. By early to mid afternoon, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into
the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range across much of the moist airmass. The
500 mb jet is forecast to eject northeastward at nearly 55 knots
into the upper Mississippi Valley. Large-scale ascent associated
with the right entrance region of the jet will overspread the moist
sector, becoming favorable for vigorous convective development.

Model forecasts are in relatively good agreement, that scattered
discrete convective initiation will take place well to the east of
the front near the instability axis during the mid to late
afternoon. Forecast soundings across the mid Mississippi Valley from
21Z to 00Z increase 0-3 km storm-relatively helicity to around 400
m2/s2, and have strong deep-layer shear near 60 knots. This will be
favorable for supercells and tornadoes. The ECMWF and NAM are in
good agreement, developing a 60 to 70 knot low-level jet max
centered over far western Tennessee at 00Z. As supercells move
eastward into the low-level jet, very strong low-level shear will be
favorable for numerous tornadoes. The most intense tornadic
supercells will be capable of producing long-track EF3+ tornadoes.
Multiple EF3+ tornadoes are expected in the mid Mississippi Valley.
The duration of the tornado threat should persist from afternoon
into the evening. A potential for supercells and tornadoes will
extend northward into the lower Ohio Valley and southwestward into
the southern Ozarks. In those two locations, the more intense
discrete supercells could produce strong tornadoes.

In addition to the tornado threat, supercells associated with large
hail and severe wind gusts are expected to form in the mid to late
afternoon across a large area from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward to
the southern Great Lakes. Large hail will also be possible with
supercells that develop along and near the front, further west into
the Ozarks. The more intense supercells should have potential to
produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. During the mid
to late evening and overnight period, several organized line
segments are expected to organize and move eastward into the
Tennessee Valley, lower Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Gusts
above 70 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing segments.
The severe threat is expected to continue into the overnight period.


...North Texas...
A mid-level trough will move northeastward across the central Plains
this morning. At the surface, as a cold front will advance eastward
through the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist and
unstable airmass will be in place over much of the eastern half of
Texas. In spite of weak forcing, isolated thunderstorms may initiate
along or ahead of the front as surface temperatures warm this
morning. Forecast soundings ahead of the front in north Texas have
0-6 km shear around 50 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5
C/km. This environment will likely support a large hail threat with
any supercells that can develop. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter and severe wind gusts will be possible within the more
vigorous supercell downdrafts. The severe threat is expected to
gradually end during the day across parts of northwest and
north-central Texas as the front moves eastward. However, isolated
supercells with large hail could redevelop during the evening and
overnight, as warm advection again brings low-level moisture
northward into the Red River Valley.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 04/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021250
SWODY1
SPC AC 021248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado outbreak is expected today and tonight from parts of the
lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley.
Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, appear
likely. In addition, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and
large hail to very large hail will be possible across a broad area
from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid/upper-level trough with associated 100-120 kt mid-level
jet streak will advance quickly northeastward today across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes. A broader area of 50-70+ kt southwesterly
mid-level flow will persist over much of the southern Plains into
the lower/mid MS Valley and OH Valley. At the surface, the primary
low over far eastern NE/western IA this morning is forecast to
develop northeastward in tandem with the upper trough today,
eventually reaching the Upper Midwest by this evening. A trailing
cold front will continue east-southeastward across the southern
Plains and Ozarks today, before eventually stalling and lifting
northward as a warm front tonight. Weak secondary surface low
development is possible this afternoon and evening along or just
ahead of the front across AR into the Mid-South.

...Ozarks into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley, Mid-South, Ohio
Valley, and Southern Great Lakes...
Robust convection is ongoing this morning from northern MO
southwestward to southern OK and north TX along/near the cold front.
Even with some capping concerns noted on area soundings ahead of
this activity, a very strong (60-70 kt) southerly low-level jet is
providing ample low-level moisture transport to support continued
convective intensity. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong
deep-layer shear are also fostering some embedded supercell
structures, with associated large hail threat. Otherwise, given the
strength of the low-level flow and very strong effective SRH,
scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes will remain the
primary threats with this line of convection as it continues
eastward this morning across the remainder of OK into AR and MO. A
strong tornado may occur with any sustained surface-based supercell.

The effect that this morning convection has on downstream afternoon
severe potential across the lower/mid MS Valley may be substantial.
Most guidance shows either a gradual weakening trend with the line
by late morning/early afternoon, or a devolution into a broken line
of supercells. Mid/high-level cloud debris could inhibit daytime
heating to some extent across much of the warm sector, and the
northern extent of the weakening line over northern MO may serve as
a cutoff for surface-based thunderstorms across the Midwest and OH
Valley later today. Even with these continued uncertainties, it
appears likely that a corridor of moderate to strong instability
will develop this afternoon across the lower MS Valley into the
Mid-South and lower OH Valley, generally ahead of whatever remains
of the ongoing/morning convection. With more nebulous/weaker
large-scale ascent over these regions given their spatial
displacement from the ejecting upper trough, there may be a more mixed/supercell mode this afternoon/evening, particularly with
southward extent.

Current expectations are for several intense supercells and clusters
to develop by 20-00Z from far northern LA into eastern AR, northwest
MS, western TN/KY, and southeast MO, and southern IL/IN. This region
appears to have the most favorable overlap of moderate to strong
instability, strong deep-layer shear, and ample low-level shear to
support multiple tornadic storms. With most guidance showing
enlarged, curved hodographs through the boundary layer, and
effective SRH forecast to generally range 250-400+ m2/s2, several
strong tornadoes are likely. Multiple EF-3+ tornadoes should also
occur given the very favorable parameter space forecast, but this
high-end tornado potential may be dependent on a relative lack of supercell/cluster interactions, which are difficult to pinpoint.
Still, based on latest high-resolution guidance trends showing
multiple intense supercells developing, the High Risk has been
expanded a bit southward with this update to include more of eastern
and south-central AR. The tornado and severe/damaging wind threat
will likely continue after dark, with updraft interactions
suggesting a messy mode, with clusters/lines and embedded supercells
all possible.

In addition to the tornado threat, large to very large hail (up to
2-3 inches in diameter) and severe/damaging wind gusts may occur
with these supercells and bowing clusters. A linear mode appears
more likely with northward extent across the mid MS Valley into the
southern Great Lakes as the cold front continues eastward today.
But, this area will also have less time to destabilize ahead of the
ongoing convection, which casts some uncertainty on the northern
extent of the substantial severe threat. Have trimmed the
Marginal/Slight Risks some across the Upper Midwest, but the
Enhanced Risk remains unchanged for now. Some risk for supercells
ahead of the line/clusters will exist across the OH Valley/Midwest.
But, confidence in this scenario occurring was not great enough to
expand the Moderate Risk for tornadoes northward into more of IN and
western OH.

...Southern Plains...
With the cold front expected to stall and eventually begin lifting
northward tonight, additional supercells may develop late in tandem
with ascent preceding another shortwave trough and a strengthening
southerly low-level jet. With steep mid-level lapse rates present
and ample MUCAPE and deep-layer shear, this convection should pose a
threat for mainly large to very large hail.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021627
SWODY1
SPC AC 021626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado outbreak is expected this afternoon into early tonight
from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and
lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+
tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, significant severe
wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail will be possible
across a broad area from north Texas northeastward to the southern
Great Lakes.

...OH/MS Valleys through tonight...
In response to an ejecting midlevel trough and associated 110 kt 500
mb jet streak, a surface cyclone will develop northeastward from IA
to Lake Superior. Severe storms are ongoing in a broken band from
west central IL across MO into northwest AR/eastern OK, which
demarcates the effective frontal zone and focus for additional storm development through the afternoon. The warm sector in advance of
these storms is characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the
low-mid 60s across IL/MO and near 70 F from the Ark-La-Tex into the Ark-La-Miss. Low-level moisture will continue to spread northward
through the day on 50-70 kt flow 1-2 km above ground level, and
surface heating in cloud breaks will boost MLCAPE into the 2000-3000
J/kg range with only weak convective inhibition through the
afternoon. The northern extent of the surface warm sector
(northeast IL across northern IN/northwest OH/southern Lower MI)
will be modulated by ongoing convection.

The primary jet streak/cyclone will be displaced northwest of the
unstable warm sector, though flow will remain strong in the warm
sector with long hodographs and substantial low-level
shear/hodograph curvature. Convective mode is expected to be
somewhat messy with embedded supercells within an increasingly
extensive band of storms through the afternoon/evening. Convective
inhibition will be sufficiently weak to support some potential for a
few supercells ahead of the band in the open warm sector. The
tornado threat will be maximized for the more discrete storms within
or ahead of the main band, where a few intense (EF3+) tornadoes will
be possible. Otherwise, evolution into an extensive squall line is
expected with an accompanying threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph)
and occasional large hail (1.5-2.5 inches in diameter - especially
with persistent supercells).

Overnight, the northern portion of the squall line will eventually
move east of the more unstable warm sector and weaken from OH into
western PA. The southern portion of the convective band is expected
to pivot gradually to a more WSW-ENE orientation favoring training
convection along and atop the conglomerate cold pool.

...North TX/southeast OK this evening through Thursday morning...
In the wake of the ejecting IA-Lake Superior jet streak, midlevel
flow will tend to amplify/back with time over TX, downstream of the
amplifying large-scale trough over the Southwest. This will
contribute to weak cyclogenesis across northwest TX along the
residual baroclinic zone, and a strengthening warm advection regime
along/north of the boundary tonight. The open warm sector will
likely remain capped (per the warm elevated mixed layer observed
this morning over TX), but the environment will favor elevated
supercells to the cool side of the boundary. Very large hail in
excess of 2 inches in diameter and isolated severe gusts will be the
main threats with these elevated storms overnight.

..Thompson/Jirak.. 04/02/2025

$$

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