ACUS11 KWNS 160157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160157=20
NCZ000-TNZ000-160400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0857 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 48...

Valid 160157Z - 160400Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 48 continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging wind and tornado threat persist across parts of
eastern Middle Tennessee, but is expected to continue waning heading
into the late evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, convection across eastern TN has
shown signs of gradual weakening with decreasing lightning counts,
and warming cloud top temperatures. However, convection that remains
across the area continues to show signs of mid-level rotation, and
the overall convective environment remains very strongly sheared
within a broad, northward-lifting warm frontal zone. The kinematic
environment was sampled well by the 00z FFC sounding, though
prolonged convective overturning across much of TN is limiting
buoyancy considerably more than was is depicted by the observed
sounding. Although a localized severe threat continues for the
short-term (next hour or so), continued diabatic cooling heading
into the late evening should result in gradually diminishing severe
potential.

..Moore.. 03/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4NktyiIdCeGYYWP_GXaakJwWf8DQvoM8Zhdv_4iqaOF5zCQ-3gZqLekQCq8-yg7VIOi4HDzsl= lBIK0tx0HW0dzgrJc8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...OHX...

LAT...LON 35358393 35138402 35018425 35018488 34998540 35138551
35358549 35518543 36338491 36488472 36528450 36508417
36418387 36208381 35358393=20


=3D =3D =3D
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