ACUS11 KWNS 160420
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160419=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-160615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 49...

Valid 160419Z - 160615Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues.

SUMMARY...Two long-track supercells across eastern/southeastern AL
will pose a risk for significant tornadoes downstream into far
western GA over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Two leading supercells across eastern and southeastern
AL have both recently produced tornadoes based on KEOX and KMXX
velocity and dual pol data. Surface observations just ahead of these
cells show 30-40 mph low-level winds are advecting high-quality
moisture (mid 60s dewpoints) ahead of the storms. This suggests that
although these cells are approaching the eastern edge of the
effective warm sector, they will likely remain in a favorable
thermodynamic environment for the next 1-2 hours. Additionally,
regional VWPs continue to sample 0-1 km SRH on the order of 500
m2/s2, which is supporting STP values on the order of 2-4 in
proximity to the storms/within the inflow region. Based on this
environment and observed rotational velocities (50-60 knots at
times), these cells will continue to be capable of producing
significant (EF-2+) tornadoes in the short term.

..Moore.. 03/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_RLtcS_IOM0V2W612zcqeMmxDawyM39VcGbe6HT7DoR8um6l7Jt2ID4G4iYVqj791B4BZ_GjU= HzFg6KNU1wNvVdKiNY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31328599 31348619 31498626 32448576 32798582 33058591
33338577 33478531 33438489 33088466 32568462 32188472
31858498 31568533 31438562 31328599=20


=3D =3D =3D
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