ACUS02 KWNS 160542
SWODY2
SPC AC 160541

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early on Monday across far
eastern North Carolina, and across parts of the West, but no severe
threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
early in the period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be
possible Monday afternoon ahead of a mid-level trough moving through California. Storms will be possible from the Pacific Northwest
Coast, and from the northern and central California into the
Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected on Monday or Monday
night across the continental U.S.

..Broyles.. 03/16/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161702
SWODY2
SPC AC 161700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday.

...Discussion...
A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur
on Monday.

In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple
embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across
parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall
amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool
mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating
should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped
convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA,
where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon.
Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north
of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds
are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere
in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated.

Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is
apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a
post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp
gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer
heating.

..Grams.. 03/16/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170555
SWODY2
SPC AC 170553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the
overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska
across much of Iowa.

...Eastern Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri...
A trough at mid-levels, will move quickly eastward into the Rockies
on Tuesday, and into the High Plains Tuesday night. Near the trough, thunderstorm development will likely take place in the Four Corners
region Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will
deepen over the central Plains, as a narrow corridor of low-level
moisture develops from eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and
northwest Missouri. The low is forecast to move through northeast
Kansas overnight, with low-level convergence becoming concentrated
from the surface low northeastward along a warm front into southern
Iowa. After midnight, thunderstorm development will be possible
along and north of the front. RAP forecast soundings just to the
north of the boundary at 06Z/Wednesday show a steep surface
inversion below 800 mb. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 750 to 1000
J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of the 8 to 9 C/km.
Effective shear on the north side of the boundary is forecast to be
in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment could be sufficient for
an isolated large hail threat, associated with elevated rotating
storms, mainly in the 06Z to 12Z timeframe.

..Broyles.. 03/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171707
SWODY2
SPC AC 171706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail will remain possible during the
overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska
across much of Iowa.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states,
encouraging rapid surface cyclone development and intensification
along the KS/OK border Tuesday. As this occurs, very strong
low-level flow will encourage the northward advection of marginal
moisture across the Plains toward the Midwest. By late Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning, low-level moisture convergence along the
terminus of the low-level jet will encourage thunderstorm
development along an effective warm front. Given strong vertical
wind shear in proximity to the low-level jet terminus, a few strong
to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible.

...Central Plains/Midwest...
After 06Z, the nose of a 50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet
will become established roughly along the KS/NE/IA/MO border, where
isentropic lift will encourage elevated thunderstorm development
above an inversion layer (roughly 800-700 mb in altitude). Above the
inversion, forecast soundings show 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates
contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with elongated/straight
hodographs contributing to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This
environment will support elevated supercells traversing the
effective warm front with a threat for hail, a few instances of
which may exceed severe limits. Timing for any severe hail appears
to fall within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning period.

..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180556
SWODY2
SPC AC 180555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across
parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana from mid-afternoon to
early evening. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats.

...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley...
A broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the
continental U.S. on Wednesday. At the mid-levels, a trough will move
from the central Plains into the Ozarks, as southwest flow
strengthens over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the start of the
period, a cluster of thunderstorms associated with an isolated large
hail threat, will be ongoing over parts of Iowa and southern
Wisconsin. At the surface, a low will move eastward into northern
Illinois by afternoon, as low-level moisture increases across the
mid Mississippi Valley. A north-to-south corridor with surface
dewpoints in the 50s F will setup from southeast Missouri into
south-central Illinois. A 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will
consolidate over the extreme western portion of the lower Ohio
Valley.

Thunderstorms appear likely to initiate during the mid afternoon,
along and near the moist axis, and to the west of the low-level jet.
These storms will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
in the late afternoon and early evening. Although instability will
remain weak along the moist axis, organized cells could develop
across eastern Illinois and western Indiana within an area of strong large-scale ascent. Forecast soundings in eastern Illinois by late
afternoon have MUCAPE peaking in the 400 to 600 J/kg range, with
very strong deep-layer shear in excess of 80 knots. Cells that can
persist in this environment could produce severe gusts and hail.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
Cyclonically-curved mid-level southwest flow will be in place across
much of the Southeast on Wednesday. The entrance region of a 90 to
100 mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex, as a cold front
moves eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the upper 50s and lower
60s F. During the late afternoon, isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop just ahead of the front in an area of focused
low-level convergence from north-central Mississippi into northwest
Alabama. Forecast soundings in north-central Mississippi at
00Z/Thursday have MUCAPE around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 70
knot. This could be enough for an isolated severe threat associated
with the stronger multicells, and perhaps a rotating storm.
Marginally severe gusts and hail will be possible.

..Broyles.. 03/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181726
SWODY2
SPC AC 181725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across
parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana from mid-afternoon to
early evening. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats,
though a couple of tornadoes are also possible.

...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and overspread
the MS Valley, encouraging an intense surface cyclone to track from
the Mid-MO Valley to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Despite the
intensity of the surface low and accompanying upper support from the
mid-level trough, buoyancy is expected to remain scant within the
warm sector given very limited low-level moisture. Nonetheless,
strong isallobaric surface flow and the presence of a low-level jet
ahead of the surface cyclone will allow for the northward advection
of some moisture (however marginal) to support low-topped storms
amid a highly sheared airmass. Some of these storms may become
strong to occasionally severe, particularly in the Midwest toward
the OH Valley.

...Midwest to OH Valley...
Modest clearing and associated insolation ahead of the surface low
will promote modest boundary-layer mixing and destabilization amid
marginal moisture. Surface dewpoints of at least 50 F with the
aforementioned heating, beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will
support 250-750 J/kg SBCAPE by mid to late afternoon. During this
time frame, surface winds are expected to be backed from the
southeast, with a 50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet contributing to substantial veering/strengthening of the low-level wind profile.
Somewhat curved and elongated hodographs will contribute to over 300
m2/s2 of sfc-3km SRH. Given marginal buoyancy, an arcing band of
low-topped supercells will precede the surface low, accompanied by a
damaging gust/hail threat. Furthermore, the strong low-level shear,
and increasing low-level vertical vorticity (as the surface low
approaches) will also foster a risk for at least an isolated
tornado.

There are some discrepancies among guidance members regarding the
degree of low-level destabilization across portions of the OH Valley
ahead of the surface low. RAP forecast soundings show mid 50s F
surface dewpoints beneath 8+ C/km mid-level rates, supporting a
relatively higher tornado threat compared to NAM, which shows low
50s F dewpoints overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km lapse rates. Higher
tornado probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if guidance
consensus depicts more boundary-layer instability.

...TN Valley into the Southeast...
At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late
afternoon into evening along the surface cold front, which will
sweep across the TN Valley/Southeast areas. These storms are
expected to be low-topped in nature, but highly sheared (given a 40+
kt southwesterly low-level jet, beneath 80+ kts of southwesterly 500
mb flow, contributing to 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear). In
addition to marginal low-level moisture, modest warming in the
850-700 mb layer will also limit thunderstorm intensity and
coverage. Given strong low-level and deep-layer directional and
speed shear, any storms that can become established and sustained
may become supercellular, posing mainly a risk for a few instances
of damaging gusts/hail.

..Squitieri.. 03/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190553
SWODY2
SPC AC 190551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of
the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not
expected.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels on Thursday, a trough will move across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys, as a fetch of southwest flow strengthens along
the East Coast. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will move
across the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints are expected to reach the 50s F across the Mid-Atlantic,
where weak destabilization will occur. Forecast soundings near the
moist axis Thursday afternoon in central Virginia have MUCAPE
peaking around 250 J/kg. As the exit region of the mid-level jet
passes by, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 80 to 90 knot
range. Although thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon, the instability is expected to be
too weak for a severe threat.

Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of a
shortwave mid-level trough, across parts of the northern Rockies and
northern High Plains. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. Thursday and Thursday night.

..Broyles.. 03/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191637
SWODY2
SPC AC 191636

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of
the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not
expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper
trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold
front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by
marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints).
Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may
encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid
Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow
just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a
few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust
coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this
time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may
be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold
temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote
enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms.

..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200544
SWODY2
SPC AC 200542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of
the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest, but no severe threat is
expected.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move across the central
states on Friday, as another shortwave trough moves across the
Pacific Northwest. Ahead of both of these features, instability will
be very weak. However, mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent
should be enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts
of the Midwest and Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected
across the continental U.S. on Friday and Friday night.

..Broyles.. 03/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201700
SWODY2
SPC AC 201659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday.

...Mid-MO/MS Valleys...
A compact shortwave impulse currently over the northern Rockies will
progress across parts of the Mid-MO/MS Valleys Friday. Despite a
dearth of low-level moisture, diurnally steepening lapse rates along
with a focused corridor of moderate large-scale ascent should
support a swath of isolated to scattered low-topped convection,
primarily from late morning to early evening. Meager buoyancy should
be adequate for sporadic lightning. Gusty, sub-severe winds may
accompany this activity, especially across the southern portion of
the convective threat, owing to a deeper mixed boundary layer and
30-40 kt 850-mb westerlies.

...Northwest...
The next shortwave trough will move inland of the Pacific Northwest
coast and reach the northern Rockies by Friday night. Scattered
low-topped convection should accompany this wave within a confined
belt of stronger forcing for ascent coincident with scant buoyancy
at most. Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the Cascades on
Friday afternoon, shifting east across the Columbia Basin and into
the northern Rockies through late evening.

..Grams.. 03/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210602
SWODY2
SPC AC 210601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO MUCH OF MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail are possible on
Saturday night across portions of Missouri and adjacent eastern
Kansas.

...Synopsis...
Weakly cyclonic/fast flow aloft will reside over the U.S. at the
start of the period, with a short-wave trough crossing the Ohio
Valley, and a second over the northwestern states. With time, the
eastern of these two features will shift into/across the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic region. An associated cold front will likewise
cross the Northeast, but lack of buoyancy will prevail. A few
lightning flashes cannot be ruled out as the system crosses the
Mid-Atlantic region, but at this time, coverage appears likely to
remain below 10%

Meanwhile, the western upper system is forecast to advance
east-southeastward across the northern Intermountain region through
the day, and into the northern and central Plains through the second
half of the period. In tandem, a developing surface cold front is
expected to shift across the Plains states overnight.
Scattered/elevated thunderstorms should develop across the Missouri
vicinity overnight, ahead of this system.

...Eastern Kansas into Missouri...
As the upper trough moves into/across the Plains, a strong southerly
low-level jet is forecast over the Upper Mississippi Valley
vicinity. Meanwhile, a secondary southwesterly branch of the
low-level jet is expected to evolve across Oklahoma/Missouri by late
evening. Warm/moist advection atop a stable boundary layer should
lead to sufficient destabilization to allow scattered convective
development, with greatest CAPE expected from northeastern Kansas
into northern and central Missouri. Given fairly steep mid-level
lapse rates, and strong mid-level flow yielding ample shear for
updraft organization, a few of the stronger storms may become
capable of producing large hail.

..Goss.. 03/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211712
SWODY2
SPC AC 211711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe gusts/hail
are possible Saturday night into early Sunday morning across
portions of eastern Kansas into Missouri.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the central Rockies and
eject into the Plains states as another mid-level trough moves into
the Atlantic tomorrow (Saturday). Surface cyclone development should
take place over the northern Plains by Saturday afternoon, promoting
modest moisture return up into the mid-MO Valley as cold
temperatures aloft advect over the central Rockies/Plains from the
west. High-based, low-topped convection will become prevalent across
the Plains, along with gusty conditions during the afternoon, before
deeper convection becomes established in the low-level warm-air
advection regime across the MO Valley Saturday night. Isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms could develop late Saturday
night/early Sunday morning across eastern KS into MO.

...Central/Northern Rockies into the central Plains...
As the upper trough ejects into the Plains and supports surface low development, cold temperatures aloft (i.e. -20C around 500 mb) will
support 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading a relatively
deep, dry boundary layer Saturday afternoon. High-based, low-topped
storms should develop by afternoon peak heating amid vertical
profiles characterized by wind speeds quickly increasing with
height. Overall buoyancy should be shallow, with no more than a
couple hundred J/kg MUCAPE expected. However, some of the more
robust convective updrafts that develop may be deep enough to
support both charge separation for lightning flashes, and effective
downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft for strong
wind gusts given steep lapse rates through the column. However,
questions remain how prevalent 50+ kt gusts would become with these
storms, precluding severe probabilities this outlook.

...Eastern KS into MO Saturday...
By late Saturday night, a 50-60 kt southwesterly low-level jet will
develop around 850 mb, encouraging appreciable low-level warm-air
and moisture advection ahead of an approaching surface cold front.
Steep lapse rates will also precede the cold front, supporting at
least 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE amid largely curved and elongated
hodographs/well over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Nearly all of
this buoyancy is contained above 850 mb, so elevated
multicells/supercells with an isolated severe gust/hail threat is
expected late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

..Squitieri.. 03/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220602
SWODY2
SPC AC 220600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to
northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and
possibly a tornado or two.

...Synopsis...
As an eastern U.S. upper trough continues progressing eastward
toward/across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, a second trough
is progged to advance southeastward out of the northern
Intermountain region into/across the northern and central Plains,
and the Upper Midwest by Sunday morning.

At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota
area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper
Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward
across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area...
Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front
will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley
area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into
Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly
conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front
should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm
development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee,
during the afternoon.

With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low
levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that
stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally
damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late
afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem
with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening.

..Goss.. 03/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220723
SWODY2
SPC AC 220721

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

...SUMMARY...
Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to
northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and
possibly a tornado or two.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough is expected to continue progressing across the Great
Lakes region through Monday morning, as a lead feature exits New
England.

At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota
area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper
Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward
across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area...
Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front
will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley
area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into
Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly
conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front
should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm
development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee,
during the afternoon.

With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low
levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that
stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally
damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late
afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem
with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening.

..Goss.. 03/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221723
SWODY2
SPC AC 221721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening
from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main severe hazard, though
a couple of tornadoes also are possible.

...East TX into KY/TN/AL...

An upper trough over the Plains Sunday morning will shift east,
extending from the upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast by
Monday morning. A belt of moderate mid/upper westerlies will extend
from the Ohio Valley south to the Mid-South/Deep South vicinity. A southwesterly low-level jet greater than 40 kt will overspread the
region during the afternoon, with some intensification of the LLJ
possible across the Deep South overnight as the upper trough
deepens. Favorable shear profiles will support organized convection
during the afternoon and into the overnight period.

At the surface, a low centered over the Upper Midwest during the
morning will shift east across the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing
cold front is forecast to sweep across the outlook area from
mid-afternoon into the night time hours. South/southwesterly
low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the
front, with 60s F dewpoints possible as far north as western TN. A
narrow corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints is possible across the MS
Delta vicinity into coastal LA/TX. Cold temperatures aloft
(generally from -20 to -16 C) will support steepening midlevel lapse
rates, and weak to moderate destabilization.

Weaker destabilization (generally less than 500 J/kg) is expected
over northern portions of the outlook area where boundary layer
moisture will be more modest and daytime heating not as strong as
further south. Nevertheless, stronger large-scale ascent and frontal
forcing coincident with strong deep-layer flow will support at least
an isolated risk for damaging gusts/hail.

Stronger destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with south/southwest extent. Large-scale ascent will be weaker, but
frontal forcing should be sufficient for isolated to scattered storm development across LA/MS, with a more conditional risk with
southwest extent into TX. Forecast soundings will support supercells
or small line segments. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the
main concern from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. However,
a narrow corridor of greater tornado potential appears evident from
northeast LA into central MS and a couple or tornadoes will be
possible. The severe risk should gradually wane with southeast
extent during the overnight hours.

..Leitman.. 03/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230558
SWODY2
SPC AC 230556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern
Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to advance slowly eastward across
the eastern half of the U.S. on Monday, while ridging expands over
the West. At the surface, a weakening occluded low will move from
the Upper Great Lakes eastward to southern Quebec through the
period. A trailing cold front will initially stretch from the Lower
Great Lakes to the southern Appalachians, and then westward across
the Gulf Coast States to Texas. The front will move offshore into
the western Atlantic through the day, while sagging southward toward
the Gulf Coast -- where it should then linger through the end of the
period.

...Southern Louisiana to southern Georgia and the Florida
Panhandle...
Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and
south of the advancing cold front. Some severe risk (mainly
hail/wind) may accompany a couple of the stronger storms during the
morning, near the Gulf Coast region. Depending upon convective coverage/evolution through late morning, any pre-frontal heating/destabilization could support
redevelopment/reintensification of frontal convection, with a
secondary peak in severe potential possible in this scenario.
Still, overall risk does not appear to warrant SLGT risk upgrade at
this time. Storms should weaken into the evening, while also
shifting gradually southward/offshore.

..Goss.. 03/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231709
SWODY2
SPC AC 231707

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern
Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

...Synopsis...

An amplified upper pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Monday,
with an upper trough pivoting over the eastern U.S. while an upper
ridge builds across the West. A surface cold front is forecast to
extend from the central Appalachians southwest into southern
MS/AL/LA, and then westward into south-central TX by midday. This
front will shift south and east offshore the Atlantic coast into
north FL and the northern Gulf by evening, while the TX portion of
the front retreats northward during the afternoon and overnight
period as a warm front.

...Southeast LA into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle...

Morning thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across the central
Gulf coast vicinity into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle ahead of
the main surface cold front. Stronger storms may be capable of
marginal hail or gusty winds with this initial activity. Another
round of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the
cold front, depending on degree of heating and airmass recovery in
the wake of morning convection. Deep-layer westerly flow will be
modest, but increasing speed with height will produce
elongated/straight hodographs. Furthermore, cool temperatures aloft
(near -15 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7
C/km, and potential MLCAPE values up to 1000-1500 J/kg. This
suggests any afternoon convection that develops could pose a risk
for hail.

...TX Hill Country/Edward Plateau vicinity...

A conditional severe thunderstorm risk (hail/strong gusts) could
exist Monday afternoon if thunderstorms can develop. Low-level
moisture will increase as a surface warm front lifts north across
the region. However, large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best
with no appreciable height falls or shortwave impulses noted across
the area. Deep-layer flow also will remain weak. Nevertheless, some
CAMs guidance depicts a couple of storms developing during the
afternoon/early evening in weak upslope flow. However, NAM and RAP
soundings suggest weak capping from 850-700 mb. Coupled with
negligible large-scale ascent, this could very well suppress
convective development. However, cold temperatures aloft and steep
midlevel lapse rates will support sizable instability (MLCAPE near
2000 J/kg). Furthermore, strong heating into the 80s F will result
in a deeply mixed boundary layer. If a storm can develop, some
potential for isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. The
overall risk appears too limited/conditional to include severe
probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240559
SWODY2
SPC AC 240557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on
Tuesday.

...Discussion...
A very slowly progressing upper pattern -- featuring an eastern U.S.
trough and a ridge over the interior West -- will persist across the
U.S. Tuesday. Through the second half of the period, an eastern
Pacific trough is forecast to impinge on the West Coast.

At the surface, the primary/remnant surface baroclinic zone -- which
will have moved off the eastern seaboard prior to the start of the
period, is forecast to trail westward from Florida to Texas.

At this time, it appears that showers and a few thunderstorms will
affect roughly the southern half of Florida during the afternoon, in
the vicinity of the surface front, and near sea-breeze boundaries
south of the front. Gusty winds and small hail may occur with one
or two of the stronger storms.

Farther west, a very conditional risk for isolated storm development
appears to exist across central and northern Texas during the
afternoon. Steep lapse rates/ample CAPE, but modest flow aloft
suggests disorganized storms, but low/conditional risk for
near-severe hail and/or wind is apparent. Overnight, elevated
convection may develop north of the surface front, over the Oklahoma
vicinity. However, modest CAPE suggests that any hail should remain sub-severe.

Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes may be possible near Pacific
Northwest coastal ranges very late in the period, as the upper
trough approaches. Severe weather is not expected.

..Goss.. 03/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241722
SWODY2
SPC AC 241720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.

...FL Peninsula...
In the wake of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse passage on D1,
large-scale ascent appears nebulous across the region. Still,
pronounced boundary-layer heating should yield at least isolated
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly along the east coast sea
breeze. Cool mid-level temperatures could support hail growth amid
moderate buoyancy. Modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall
threat, but a few slow-moving cells with mostly small hail and
locally strong gusts may occur over southeast FL.

...Southern Great Plains...
Within the periphery of a broad northwest flow regime across the
central to eastern states, the surface pattern should be
characterized by a weak southern High Plains trough and a
quasi-stationary front extending east across north TX towards the
Red River. Aggressive guidance suggests potential for isolated
thunder in north-central TX late afternoon to early evening Tuesday
along the leading edge of slightly greater boundary-layer moisture.
Otherwise, a modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime north of
the surface front could support isolated, mainly elevated thunder
into Tuesday night.

...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont to the Upper Midwest...
A trio of shortwave impulses migrating through the broad
north-central to eastern CONUS longwave trough may provide adequate
ascent for very isolated thunder from mid-afternoon to early evening
Tuesday. Given the west to northwesterly flow regime, buoyancy is
expected to remain scant at most. Destabilization will largely be
driven by peak boundary-layer heating ahead of each respective
impulse. Convection should largely remain low-topped, but sporadic
flashes may accompany the more sustained cores. Locally gusty winds
within well-mixed boundary layers are possible.

...Western OR...
Between a northeast Pacific upper trough and an amplified ridge over
the interior West, a meridional deep-layer flow regime will exist
along the Pacific Coast. Some models continue to hint at a narrow
corridor of 700-mb warm theta-e advection supporting very isolated
convection west of the Cascades in OR by early morning Wednesday.

..Grams.. 03/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250558
SWODY2
SPC AC 250556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

...Synopsis...
Slow progression of the upper pattern -- a general western
ridge/eastern trough configuration -- is expected Wednesday.
Upstream, an eastern Pacific trough/low will strengthen as it nears
the Pacific Northwest Coast.

At the surface, a rather ill-defined baroclinic zone will extend
from Florida to Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front -- associated with a deepening/occluded low off the coast -- will shift into the Pacific
Northwest through the day.

...Pacific Northwest...
Ahead of the cold front forecast to move eastward across the area
during the afternoon and evening, daytime heating of a modestly
moist boundary layer will result in at least marginal
destabilization. Questions persist regarding the degree of
low-level moisture, which will likely modulate storm development and
subsequent intensity.

With that said, diffluent flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper
low, and increasingly strong southerly deep-layer flow would
otherwise suggest a favorable setup for isolated severe storms. At
this time, will maintain 5%/MRGL risk for hail/wind, as low-level
flow/shear should remain weak. However, the favorable overall setup
could yield greater coverage/risk than currently indicated, and thus modifications in subsequent outlooks may be needed.

...Far West Texas vicinity...
A dry/capped airmass and weak shear is expected across the Permian Basin/Transpecos Region/Davis Mountains. However, presuming an
isolated storm or two can develop near the dryline, steep lapse
rates aloft would suggest potential for briefly intense updrafts.
Any storm which would develop could produce hail/wind, but any risk
is highly conditional and does not appear to warrant inclusion of a
risk area at this time.

..Goss.. 03/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 251726
SWODY2
SPC AC 251725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific
Northwest on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Coverage should be
mostly isolated, but a more probable corridor for a few supercells
is apparent west of the Cascades. These may produce large hail, a
brief tornado, and locally strong gusts.

...Pacific Northwest...
Confidence is sufficient for an upgrade to level 2-SLGT risk for
large hail, centered along the I-5 corridor in western OR/WA.
Considered a separate upgrade across northeast OR/southwest WA for
wind, but confidence is too low to warrant one at this time.

A vigorous shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest
coast through the period. A pronounced mid-level jetlet, around
90-100 kts at 500 mb, should overspread the OR coast to west of the
Cascades on Wednesday evening. Near record to record high
temperatures are anticipated downstream amid a preceding highly
amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This combined with well
above-normal PW values should yield pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind
profile, a few supercells will likely develop west of the Cascades
as MLCIN wanes towards peak heating. With weak low-level shear,
large hail should be the primary hazard. A storm or two might
produce significant severe sizes of 2-2.5 inches before storms
weaken over the Cascades.

Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker, but the
boundary layer will be more deeply mixed. Guidance varies greatly
with the degree of convective coverage in this region into the
evening. The more aggressive models suggest a thunderstorm cluster
or two could evolve across northeast OR/southeast WA. Should this
occur, severe wind gusts would be the primary hazard. Given a subtle delayed/weaker trend in the timing/strength of the parent shortwave
trough, will maintain broad low probabilities for now.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX...
Minor mid-level impulses are progged to undercut the highly
amplified ridge that currently exists from the Rio Grande Valley to
the Pacific Northwest. Guidance varies in mesoscale spatiotemporal
aspects of when these impulses cross the Rio Grande into south TX.
With rich boundary-layer moisture over Deep South TX and potential
for pronounced diabatic heating, a marginally favorable environment
for isolated severe hail/wind is apparent. While speeds may be
modest, a vertically veering wind profile with height could support
a few slow-moving, transient supercell structures Wednesday
afternoon/evening.

..Grams.. 03/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260614
SWODY2
SPC AC 260613

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of
the southern High Plains, and into southern Texas, as well as over
the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys.

...Southern High Plains across southern Texas...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing early in the
period, as a slow-moving southern-stream trough moves eastward
across northern Mexico and Texas through the period. Local risk for
hail/wind may be ongoing with these storms.

During the afternoon, isolated high-based convection may develop
across parts of southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Despite
modest CAPE/shear, the deep/dry boundary layer may support
gusty/damaging winds with any stronger storm.

Farther east, along the Rio Grande, storms will likely develop over
higher terrain on the Mexican side of the river, and may shift into
adjacent portions of Texas with time. Meanwhile, remnant outflow
from earlier convection may focus new storm development, as moderate instability develops due to the moist boundary layer residing
beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper
system. Low-level southeasterlies veering with height, and
increasing to 30-plus kt at mid levels, will support
organized/rotating storms, the strongest of which will be capable of all-hazards severe potential. Risk will likely continue through the
evening, spreading eastward into southeastern Texas with time.

...Middle Missouri Valley area eastward to the Lower Ohio Valley...
As a warm front advances slowly northward across the central Plains
and Midwest, several clusters of showers and scattered thunderstorms
are forecast to develop, and shift east-southeastward within the
prevailing west-northwesterlies aloft. Isolated afternoon
surface-based storms may develop over the north-central Kansas
vicinity, where risk for a few strong wind gusts may occur, along
with potential for hail. However, more widespread convection during
the period is forecast north of the warm front. Steep lapse rates
above the low-level stable air, and amply strong mid-level flow,
suggests potential for severe-caliber hail.

..Goss.. 03/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 261723
SWODY2
SPC AC 261721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TX AND
THE LOWER MO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas
with hail and wind as the primary hazards. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail
and localized severe gusts are possible, mainly during the late
afternoon and evening.

...South TX...
Extensive deep convection will likely be ongoing across parts of
south TX Thursday morning, in association with a leading
low-amplitude shortwave impulse. How far south-southeast attendant
cold pool/large-scale outflow is uncertain, with the 12Z NAM
displaced farther northwest than the bulk of preferred guidance.
This will have profound impacts on spatial extent and amplitude of
D2 severe potential. Prior overturning/stabilization is likely to be
much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM.

Some severe wind/embedded hail threat may accompany the leading
convection across Deep South TX and the Lower TX Coast, before it
shifts offshore/weakens through late morning into midday. Trailing
outflow will serve as a focus for renewed development beyond the
higher terrain of northeast Mexico. Confidence is low in achieving
substantial retreat/destabilization north of the outflow. But with
persistence of weak mid-level troughing upstream and moderate
mid-level southwesterlies, renewed severe potential may occur across
parts of south TX Thursday evening/night with slow-moving clusters.
Embedded supercells could pose a mixed severe hail/wind threat.

...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys...
Primary change with this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk
across parts of the Lower MO Valley for the late afternoon to early
evening severe threat. Guidance is consistent with sustaining storm
development along this portion of the warm front, downstream of the
low-level thermal ridge emanating northeast from the central Great
Plains. UH/reflectivity signals in 12Z HREF members are seemingly
subdued relative to the potential thermodynamic environment
characterized by a confined plume of MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. This
region will remain on the southwest fringe of moderate mid-level
westerlies and hodographs appear modest. Still, adequate veering of
the wind profile with height in conjunction with rather steep
mid-level lapse rates should support at least an isolated large hail
threat, peaking around early evening.

..Grams.. 03/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 270601
SWODY2
SPC AC 270600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND FROM THE
EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
eastern and southern Texas and into southern Arkansas and Louisiana
Friday, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night.

...Synopsis...
A slow-moving southern-stream short-wave trough will continue
shifting across the southern Plains Friday, toward the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Farther north, a series of vorticity maxima
will move east-northeastward across the north-central U.S. within
background west-southwesterly northern-stream flow.

At the surface, a low initially over the northern Plains is forecast
to move eastward along a surface warm front, reaching the Upper
Mississippi Valley by evening, and then continuing across the Great
Lakes through the end of the period.

...Southern and eastern Texas east to southwestern Arkansas and
Louisiana...
As the upper trough moves slowly eastward across Texas through the
day, heating beneath the cool air aloft will result in moderate destabilization. As such, ongoing convection early in the period
will likely increase during the afternoon, particularly in areas
relatively undisturbed by prior convection/cloud cover.

While mid-level flow will remain somewhat modest, low level flow
veering and increasing with height will provide ample shear for
organized storms and occasional rotation. Along with potential for
large hail and damaging winds locally, with a few of the strongest
storms, a tornado or two will also be possible. Once locations of
more concentrated afternoon/evening storms can be identified in
future outlooks, an upgrade to SLGT may be required.

...Portions of Nebraska northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes...
Late afternoon/evening thunderstorms are forecast to evolve in the
vicinity of a baroclinic zone stretching from Nebraska to the Upper
Great Lakes, as modest airmass destabilization occurs. With ample
mid-level flow aloft supporting organized storms, hail and locally
damaging gusts will be possible with a couple of the stronger storms
over the Mid Missouri Valley area. Farther east, ahead of the low,
most of the convection will be elevated north of the warm front,
with hail possible with stronger storms into the overnight hours.

..Goss.. 03/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271721
SWODY2
SPC AC 271719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A low-probability tornado and wind threat remains forecast for
Friday morning through evening across portions of the western Gulf
Coast States. Isolated severe hail is possible from the Upper
Midwest into Nebraska on Friday evening/night.

...TX Coastal Plain to LA...
After extensive preceding convection yesterday through today, poor
mid-level lapse rates will be prevalent across much the region ahead
of a low-amplitude mid-level trough characterized by embedded
convectively modified impulses. This trough should drift
east-northeast across south to east TX during the period. Within the
rich western Gulf airmass, surface-based destabilization will be
tempered and deep-layer shear appears modest. But belts of
moderately enhanced low-level flow could support low-probability
tornado and wind potential, mainly during the morning to evening.
These may linger along the southwest LA coast through Friday night.

...Upper Midwest to NE..
Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent
atop a pronounced surface warm front over WI/MN to a lee trough in
the central High Plains. Elevated convective potential appears most
prominent by Friday evening near the Upper Great Lakes, downstream
of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse progressing east near the
international border. Surface temperatures may be close to freezing,
but small to marginally severe hail is possible with fast-moving,
highly elevated cells along the northern periphery of the EML plume.

Farther southwest, the degree of low-level moisture relative to the
stout EML should mitigate appreciable convective potential until
evening. Convective coverage will probably be sparse as large-scale
ascent may be limited, but should eventually increase across NE as
the low-level jet strengthens Friday night. Overall severe potential
appears likely to remain marginal.

..Grams.. 03/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280607
SWODY2
SPC AC 280605

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma
into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to
very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe
gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur.

...Northern Oklahoma into parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid
Mississippi Valleys...
As the primary vorticity maximum within a complex, mid-level
short-wave trough shifts into the central Plains through the second
half of the period (Saturday evening/overnight), a surface frontal
wave will shift northeastward from the Kansas/Oklahoma border area
into northern Missouri/southern Iowa. This will allow a cold front
to advance southeastward across Kansas/Oklahoma through the
overnight period.

While strong capping is forecast ahead of the front through the day, suppressing diurnal storm development, the increase in
forcing/ascent after dark should support isolated to scattered storm development -- initially across northern Oklahoma and southeastern
Kansas, and then spreading northeastward/eastward through the end of
the period.

Steep lapse rates/moderate instability above the capping layer will
allow developing storms to strengthen/organize -- aided by
veering/increasing flow with height. A few supercells are expected
to evolve, with very large hail expected to be the primary risk.
Locally damaging gusts may also occur, and a tornado or two cannot
be ruled out through the end of the period.

...Southern Oklahoma into central Texas...
A stout EML/strong cap is forecast to prevail from Oklahoma
southwestward into central Texas through the period. With only weak large-scale ascent at best expected to spread into central Texas
late, expectations are that capping will persist in hampering storm
development in most if not all areas. The NAM (both deterministic
and convection-allowing runs) supports this scenario -- as it
continues to indicate no convective development. Meanwhile, the GFS
is most aggressive in late-period, isolated storm development --
extending across the entire southern/eastern Oklahoma area and
southwestward to the Edwards Plateau. Meanwhile, in between these
two solutions, the ECMWF shows a small area of late-period
development over the Concho Valley vicinity.

The takeaway from this is that storm development is likely to remain
isolated at best, slightly elevated if it does occur, and well after
dark. With that said, severe risk -- though conditional -- is
evident if storms do develop, given very steep lapse rates/strong
CAPE above the capping layer, and favorably strong southwesterly
flow aloft. Therefore, will maintain MRGL risk across this area, to
cover the conditional potential for large hail, and possibly a
strong gust with any storm that could develop.

..Goss.. 03/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281729
SWODY2
SPC AC 281727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma
into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to
very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe
gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be
somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs
are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the
surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve
into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in
succession. One low will move through the lower
Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning.

...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma...
Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the
day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be
possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas.
Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface
low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to
scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into
northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for
supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell
structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the
more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the
Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist
for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell,
but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal
along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary
layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase
during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters
seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat.
Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also
possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on
supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into
southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe
storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been
maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored.

...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas...
In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress
convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb
winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes
rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given
parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent.
Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset.
Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a
result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment
will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of
large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado.

Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist.
Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts
along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as
some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern
Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a
strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail
and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity,
should it develop.

...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley...
The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the
Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through
the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail
given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust
is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on
a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent
of the threat are the most uncertain for these region.

..Wendt.. 03/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290616
SWODY2
SPC AC 290615

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD
AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across
an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower
Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds,
and strong tornadoes are expected.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley south to East Texas and the central Gulf
Coast states...
A mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to shift northeastward out
of the central Plains into the Upper Great Lakes region through the
first half of the period, with an accompanying surface low deepening
slowly as it reaches the Lake Michigan vicinity by early evening.
Meanwhile, a secondary short-wave trough -- comporised of several
vorticity maxima -- is forecast to move into/across the central and
southern Plains toward the Mississippi Valley through the second
half of the period, possibly driving weak frontal wave development
in the mid Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley vicinity by evening.

As the cold front crosses western Illinois/Missouri during the day,
daytime heating will support destabilization, yielding scattered
thunderstorm development, as the main/initial short-wave trough
crosses this region. Large hail and damaging winds will become
increasingly likely as the storms organize, and a few tornadoes will
also be possible. This convection may evolve into one or more bands
of organized storms with embedded rotation, with risk for more
widespread strong/damaging gusts, in addition to embedded tornadoes,
as the convection shifts across Indiana/southern Lower Michigan, and
eventually western Ohio through the evening and into the overnight
hours.

Farther south, more uncertainty exists -- due to questions regarding
degree of cloudiness and precipitation ahead of the approaching
front. NAM output suggests very steep lapse rates aloft will
overspread the area atop a capped/amply moist boundary layer. As
the front approaches, and effects of the secondary upper troughing
impinge gradually on the Lower Mississippi Valley area -- and
eventually the Mid South/Tennessee Valley, developing storms would
pose substantial, all-hazards severe risk including very large hail, strong/damaging winds, and potentially strong tornadoes.

However, some models -- particularly the RAP -- suggest that
widespread precipitation/weak convection will persist through much
of the period across the lower Ohio/lower Mississippi/Tennessee
Valleys through the first half of the period, substantially
affecting the thermodynamic environment. Along with a
less-amplified upper flow field -- and weaker shear overall --
enough uncertainty exists to refrain from a higher-end outlook at
this time. As such, will maintain ENH risk across a broad area at
this time, though an upgrade to MDT risk in the lower
Ohio/Tennessee/Mid Mississippi Valley corridor may be required in
later outlooks.

..Goss.. 03/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291730
SWODY2
SPC AC 291728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD
AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across
an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower
Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds,
and strong tornadoes are expected.

...Synopsis...
Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave
trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a
longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS.
This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains
today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day
tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the
southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the
surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify
as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in
tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of
the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH
Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana
region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm
development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with
the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several
tornadoes.

...Central TX...
Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The
southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm
coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear
should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe
hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary
as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region.

...IL, IN, and OH...
Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields
will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River
Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies.
Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should
allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the
region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along
the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and
while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing
along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line
by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km
BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within
the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind
probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this
potential.

While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance,
it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or
remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over
MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for
convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes.

...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region...
Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop
from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the
Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline.
Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote
elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles
and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This
will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to
very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado
threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH
Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is
anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850
mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor,
low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential
to warrant higher probabilities at this time.

However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as
the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear
segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with
a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds.
Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded
mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern
MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours.

...Florida...
A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is
expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat
strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature
may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing
across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind
threat.

..Moore.. 03/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300609
SWODY2
SPC AC 300607

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread
damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of
the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region.

...Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and
eastern Gulf Coast area...
An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the
eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states
overnight. Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to
progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the
day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore
overnight.

Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms -- likely accompanied by
ongoing severe risk -- are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf
Coast region. Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing
front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the
mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to
evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity. This
will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as
it advances eastward.

Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of
the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms. Northern
portions of the risk area -- where CAPE should remain modest -- will
likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe
risk. Farther south, greater instability will support stronger
convection, including linear bands near the front with
local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the
boundary. As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied
by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given
ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer.

Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving
offshore overnight.

..Goss.. 03/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301731
SWODY2
SPC AC 301730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to
widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast
Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central
Gulf Coast region.

...Synopsis...
The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by
extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one
significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the
lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a
lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep
surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing
cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England
into parts of the Southeast.

...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia...
While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution
on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized
storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL,
potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the
southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream
buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain
potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of
GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to
widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to
support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and
also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat,
any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail.

The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold
front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the
wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the
severe potential with any second round of convection in this region.

Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a
moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early
afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward,
with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of
damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in
low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which
could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm
initiation and maturation.

...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast...
While instability will generally weaken with northward extent,
scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the
front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England.
Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern
periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for
damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest
storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front
moves offshore.

..Dean.. 03/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 310600
SWODY2
SPC AC 310558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon across the
central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to
spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe
gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Central and Southern Plains into the Midwest...
A somewhat complicated convective evolution is expected across parts
of the central and Southern Plains late Tuesday. A powerful
mid-level trough and accompanying 100+ kt jet streak are forecast to
eject eastward over the central Rockies into the Plains late in the
afternoon and into overnight Wednesday. Strong ascent will aid in
the development and intensification of a deep lee low helping to
rapidly draw substantial surface moisture northward late. Southerly
winds will act on a sizable reservoir of rich moisture with mean W
of 14-16 g/kg across south Texas and the western Gulf Basin. Higher
surface dewpoints are forecast to rapidly return northward across
much of the southern and central Plains. While model disagreement in
regard to the speed of moisture return persists, an ensemble
solution of guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints are
likely across the central Plains, with mid 60s F possible across the
southern Plains by 00z.

Cooling mid-level temperatures from the approaching trough will aid
in destabilization ahead of a surging dryline, supporting initial
convective development close to the low across pats of NE and
northern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs
suggest the primary risk will be hail, some damaging winds are also
possible given the relatively dry profile. Additional, likely
elevated storms are expected later in the evening as low-level warm
air advection increases and spreads into parts of the Midwest. Hail
is the primary threat overnight.

Farther south into KS, OK and western/central TX, a more conditional
risk for supercell development is expected late afternoon to near
sunset. Models vary greatly in the degree of mixing and heating near
a sharpening dryline from south-central KS, into western OK, and
central TX. Forecast soundings show some residual cloud cover and
capping may remain east of the boundary through the late afternoon
associated with the rapid return of moisture. However, some
broad-scale ascent, strong isolation and solenoidal circulations may
allow for isolated storm development initially within the more mixed
air mass farther west. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and
strong deep-layer shear would support isolated supercells with a
risk for large hail and damaging gusts.

Should storms form, they will track east-northeast into the more
sheltered air mass Tuesday evening. As moisture continues to
improve, very strong low-level shear profiles are expected to
develop with a 50-60 kt southerly low-level jet. All hazards,
including a few tornadoes, significant hail and damaging gusts are
possible given increasingly large hodographs (0-1km SRH of 300-500
m2/s2) Tuesday night.

Additional storm development will be possible along the cold front
late Tuesday night which will spread eastward across the Plains and
potentially approach the Ozarks overnight. Questions remain
regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could
persist to the end of the period.

..Lyons/Goss.. 03/31/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 310617
SWODY2
SPC AC 310615

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon across the
central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to
spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe
gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Central and Southern Plains into the Midwest...
A somewhat complicated convective evolution is expected across parts
of the central and Southern Plains late Tuesday. A powerful
mid-level trough and accompanying 100+ kt jet streak are forecast to
eject eastward over the central Rockies into the Plains late in the
afternoon and into overnight Tuesday. Strong ascent will aid in the
development and intensification of a deep lee low helping to rapidly
draw substantial surface moisture northward late. Southerly winds
will act on a sizable reservoir of rich moisture with mean W of
14-16 g/kg across south Texas and the western Gulf Basin. Higher
surface dewpoints are forecast to rapidly return northward across
much of the southern and central Plains. While model disagreement in
regard to the speed of moisture return persists, an ensemble
solution of guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints are
likely across the central Plains, with mid 60s F possible across the
southern Plains by 00z.

Cooling mid-level temperatures from the approaching trough will aid
in destabilization ahead of a surging dryline, supporting initial
convective development close to the low across pats of NE and
northern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs
suggest the primary risk will be hail, some damaging winds are also
possible given the relatively dry profile. Additional, likely
elevated storms are expected later in the evening as low-level warm
air advection increases and spreads into parts of the Midwest. Hail
is the primary threat overnight.

Farther south into KS, OK and western/central TX, a more conditional
risk for supercell development is expected late afternoon to near
sunset. Models vary greatly in the degree of mixing and heating near
a sharpening dryline from south-central KS, into western OK, and
central TX. Forecast soundings show some residual cloud cover and
capping may remain east of the boundary through the late afternoon
associated with the rapid return of moisture. However, some
broad-scale ascent, strong isolation and solenoidal circulations may
allow for isolated storm development initially within the more mixed
air mass farther west. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and
strong deep-layer shear would support isolated supercells with a
risk for large hail and damaging gusts.

Should storms form, they will track east-northeast into the more
sheltered air mass Tuesday evening. As moisture continues to
improve, very strong low-level shear profiles are expected to
develop with a 50-60 kt southerly low-level jet. All hazards,
including a few tornadoes, significant hail and damaging gusts are
possible given increasingly large hodographs (0-1km SRH of 300-500
m2/s2) Tuesday night.

Additional storm development will be possible along the cold front
late Tuesday night which will spread eastward across the Plains and
potentially approach the Ozarks overnight. Questions remain
regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could
persist to the end of the period.

..Lyons/Goss.. 03/31/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 311732
SWODY2
SPC AC 311730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night across the central and southern Plains. The greater
coverage of storms is expected across parts of central and eastern
Kansas, but significant severe storms will be possible farther south
into Oklahoma and north Texas as well. All hazards are possible,
including the potential for very large hail and a couple strong
tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the
western/central CONUS on Tuesday, as a powerful jet (80-100 kt at
500 mb) begins to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains later
in the period. In response to this trough and jet, a surface cyclone
will intensify through the day across the central High Plains,
before moving northeastward toward the lower MO Valley Tuesday
night.

Rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south
TX, but will stream rapidly northward through the day and evening in
response to the deepening cyclone and a strong low-level jet. The
magnitude and timing of richer moisture returns remain somewhat
uncertain, and will be crucial for the potential of storm initiation
along/east of the dryline through early evening.

Initial high-based storms are expected to develop during the
afternoon across parts of central NE, where low-level moisture will
remain limited but stronger early-day ascent will spread across the
region. Buoyancy will likely remain modest this far north, but
increasing low-level and deep-layer flow/shear could support a
threat of isolated strong/severe gusts and hail as this convection
spreads east-northeastward into the early evening.

Farther south, the environment along/east of the dryline into parts
of western/central KS/OK and northwest TX will become increasingly
favorable for organized severe storms, as upper 50s to mid 60s F
dewpoints (greater with south extent) spread northward and
deep-layer flow fields become rather intense. However, lingering
CINH will tend to inhibit initiation through much of the afternoon,
and the late arrival of richer boundary-layer moisture results in
uncertainty regarding potential for storm development through early
evening.

Any supercells that can develop along/east of the dryline would pose
an initial threat of large to very large hail and localized severe
gusts. Warm-sector supercells that are able to persist into the
evening will encounter increasing boundary-layer moisture and
low-level shear/SRH and would pose an increasing tornado threat. The
Slight Risk has been maintained across parts of OK/TX, but any
increase in the signal for storm development along the dryline would necessitate one or more categorical upgrades across this area.

There is greater confidence in storm coverage during the evening
into late Tuesday night across parts of eastern KS and western MO.
A strong (60+ kt) low-level jet will become focused into this
region, as the surface low begins to move east-northeastward across
KS. Convection may remain slightly elevated across this area, but
moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear
will support a threat of large/very-large hail and severe gusts.
Surface-based supercells could persist near the southern periphery
of this cluster, with 0-1 km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 supporting a
tornado threat, including the conditional threat of a strong
tornado. An Enhanced Risk has been added where confidence is
greatest in storm coverage within an increasingly favorable
environment.

Overnight, additional storm development will be possible along the
cold front into parts of OK/TX, within a very favorable conditional
environment for organized storms. Given the timing and a tendency
for deep-layer flow to become parallel to the front, questions
remain regarding the mode of overnight storms and whether they will
be surface-based, but some all-hazards severe threat could persist
through the end of the forecast period.

..Dean.. 03/31/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010602
SWODY2
SPC AC 010600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TO THE OH/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe storms are likely Wednesday and Wednesday night
across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the
ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and strong tornadoes
are possible.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough and powerful 100+ kt jet streak will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions
Wednesday. Strong ascent from the advancing upper trough and primary
shortwave impulse will support a deep surface low moving from the
northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. A warm front will
rapidly lift north through the morning and early afternoon across
parts of eastern IA, MO, IL and IN. 60s F surface dewpoints appear
likely to reach southern lower MI by the afternoon. A cold front
attendant to the deep surface cyclone will sweep eastward, with
widespread strong to severe storms expected to be ongoing
along/ahead of the front at daybreak.

...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes...
The presence of early morning storms and strong low-level warm
advection substantially complicates the forecast convective
evolution across the Great lakes and Midwest. Model guidance varies,
but some solutions show these storms may re-intensify with the
diurnal cycle posing a significant wind/tornado risk, given the very
strong effective shear present. Other guidance suggests this initial
activity could outrun the better buoyancy with eastward extent,
potentially limiting the northward extent of return moisture and
subsequent destabilization. Regardless, very strong synoptic ascent
and low/deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and
tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great
Lakes and Midwest region during the afternoon and evening. Higher
severe probabilities for damaging winds and possibly tornadoes may
be needed in futures outlooks, as confidence in the warm frontal
position and convective evolution are further resolved.

...Ozarks and the Mid MS Valley...
Farther south, multiple embedded perturbations will overspread parts
of the Midwest and mid MS and lower OH valleys as the trough and jet
shift eastward Wednesday and Wednesday night. While displaced south
of the primary ascent, moderate height falls will take place across
the western half of a very broad warm sector. A few storms may be
ongoing along the slow moving Pacific front/dryline across eastern
OK and western AR/MO early. Re-intensification of this convection is
possible by mid to late morning as the boundary-layer begins to warm
and destabilize. Elongated hodographs, though with somewhat veered
low-level flow, suggest a risk for large hail and a few tornadoes is
likely. Some upscale growth is also possible with a mixed mode and
numerous storm interactions along and near the front.

Additional development appears likely along a per-frontal confluence
axis, or within the broader warm sector across the western Mid MS
Valley and lower OH valley by mid afternoon. Strong, but somewhat
meridonal shear profiles may support a mixed mode of supercells and
clusters as storms develop within a very favorable parameter space
for significant severe weather (STP 3+). Hodographs will remain
large through much of the afternoon and into the evening with ESRH
of 300-400 m2/s2. This suggests any longer-lived supercells will
pose a risk for strong tornadoes, in addition to very large hail and
damaging winds.

...Red River and the ArkLaTex...
Along the southern extent of the dryline/Pacific front, subtle
height falls may support only isolated storm development. Still a
couple storms appear likely by early to mid afternoon across parts
of northeast TX, southern AR and northern LA. Strong mid-level flow,
robust moisture (dewpoints near 70 F), and large hodographs will
likely support supercells with all hazards. These storms should
persist into parts of the mid and lower MS valley overnight with a
continued severe risk.

Later in the evening, a secondary low-level jet surge will begin
across north TX and the Red River vicinity. Warm advection storms
are likely to develop after 06z as the stalling cold front begins to
lift back north into OK/TX as a warm front. Steep mid-level lapse
rates and strong vertical shear will favor elevated
supercells/clusters with an attended risk for large hail and
isolated damaging gusts overnight.

..Lyons.. 04/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 011734
SWODY2
SPC AC 011733

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe storms are likely Wednesday and Wednesday night
across the southern Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and North
Texas into the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and
strong tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough and powerful 100+ kt jet streak will
accelerate northeastward from the central Plains to the Great Lakes
on Wednesday. Strong ascent from the advancing upper trough and
primary shortwave impulse will support a deep (~990mb) surface low
moving from the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. A warm
front will rapidly move north through the morning which will allow
for a broad warm sector featuring 60s F dewpoints to expand as far
north as eastern Iowa to north-central Ohio/southern Michigan by
Wednesday afternoon/evening. A cold front attendant to the deep
surface cyclone will sweep eastward, with widespread strong to
severe storms expected to be ongoing along/ahead of the front at
daybreak.

...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from northeast Texas to the
Upper Midwest at the beginning of the period. East of this activity,
a warm front will surge rapidly north across Illinois and Indiana
with mid 60s dewpoints expected across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to
the Lower Ohio Valley by mid-day. As temperatures warm into the
upper 70s to low 80s, moderate to strong instability will develop by
early afternoon. A cap, centered around 700mb, should keep deeper
convection suppressed for much of the day. However, as height falls
overspread the warm sector after 21Z and ascent increases in the
right entrance region of the upper-level jet, this cap will erode. Simultaneously, even richer low-level theta-e, with upper 60s
dewpoints and mean mixing ratio in excess of 14 g/kg will advect
into the mid-Mississippi valley. This will provide an environment
for explosive supercell development given 45-55 knots of effective
shear. In addition, low-level shear will support the threat for
tornadoes.

A broad, strong low-level jet will be present across the warm sector
for the entire day. However, there will be some relative weakening
during the 18-22Z period. This may limit the tornado threat
initially, but by 00Z, most guidance shows a renewed low-level jet strengthening and elongating of the hodographs. Therefore, the
primary threat could be hail for a few hours during the evening
before the tornado threat increases by 23Z-00Z and persists into the
evening hours. Orientation of the storms and potential for training
do provide some uncertainty, but in the moist environment, expect
multiple mature supercells to persist into the evening when very
strong low-level shear develops. Multiple strong to potentially
intense tornadoes are possible during this period.

...North Texas to the ArkLaTex...
Late Wednesday night (after 06Z Thu), initially elevated supercells
will likely develop along and north of the front across northwest
Texas. Hail will be the primary threat initially, but some damaging
wind threat will also exist from these elevated storms. As they move
east, and the front starts to move northward, these storms may
eventually become surface-based early Thursday morning along the Red
River from north-central Texas to the ArkLaTex.

...Upper Midwest to Upper Great Lakes...
A conditional, potentially potent, severe weather threat could
materialize across northern Illinois and into southern Michigan on
Wednesday. This area, closer to the surface low and beneath the very
strong mid-level jet streak, will have a wind profile favorable for
all severe weather hazards. However, destabilization will depend
heavily on the overnight convection Tuesday night from the central
Plains into Missouri. If morning convection can clear, and
especially if even broken clouds can permit some heating across some
of the region, a greater tornado threat is possible across parts of
northern Illinois.

..Bentley.. 04/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 020601
SWODY2
SPC AC 020600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a
broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley
to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts
and hail are the primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
A stalled front will provide the main impetus for severe storm
development from the ArkLaTex to the Mid Atlantic Thursday and
Thursday night. Broad troughing over the central US will gradually
amplify as strong flow aloft overspreads the frontal zone. Deep
moisture and seasonably warm temperatures along and south of the
elongated frontal zone will support the potential for strong to
severe storms over a large area.

...ArkLaTex to the MS/TN Valleys...
Elevated storms are likely to be ongoing near the stalled front
early in the period across parts of the Red River and ArkLaTex
vicinity. Flow aloft will turn more southerly, aiding in increasing
low-level warm advection through the day despite relatively neutral
mid-level height tendency. With surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
to low 70s F, moderate buoyancy is likely with only partial diurnal
heating. This should sustain the early storms, allowing them to
spread east, and potentially become surface based over parts of the
MS/TN Valleys. Effective shear of 55+ kt will favor a mix of
supercells and bowing segments capable of damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes.

Additional storms are likely along the dryline over northeast TX and
within the warm sector across parts of southern AR and northern LA
by mid afternoon. Deep veering wind profiles suggests these storms
will likely be supercellular, though the weak capping will favor
multiple interactions and relatively quick upscale growth into one
or more clusters with time. Until then, strong low/mid-level shear,
steep mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a
risk for all hazards.

With multiple rounds of convection likely to pass through the area,
confidence in the placement of the front is low. Some consideration
was given to higher probabilities across parts of northeast TX,
southern AR and northern LA, given the potential for several
supercells or a well organized bowing segment.

Another round of elevated storms is likely late Thursday into early
Friday as the flow aloft becomes increasingly meridional over the
southern Plains. Strong low-level warm advection and steep mid-level
lapse rates will support a risk for large hail as storms overrun the
stalled front across central and northwest TX, into southern OK
overnight.

...OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic...
Complications abound from overnight convection likely persisting
into the daylight hours across the OH Valley. The front is forecast
to continue to sag south and stall eventually across the OH Valley
and Mid Atlantic by midday Thursday. South of the boundary low 60s F
surface dewpoints and some filtered diurnal heating should support
around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Several embedded mid-level perturbations
may provide enough ascent for additional convective development
through the day. Vertical shear will remain strong as increasingly
zonal winds aloft overspread the frontal zone. Several clusters of
strong to severe storms are possible along the front with a risk
primarily for damaging winds and tornado or two, given the
relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow.

..Lyons.. 04/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021731
SWODY2
SPC AC 021730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a
broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley
to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts
and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado
threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western
Tennessee.

...Synopsis...
An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather
threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing
convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its
outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone.
As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS,
mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with
height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will
intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the
day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe
storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western
Tennessee.

...West Texas to North Texas...
Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along
and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central
Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear
(80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of
large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid
day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and
southern Oklahoma.

Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is
expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale
mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse
likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast
soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess
of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the
synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells
capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and
Northwest Texas.

...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee...
An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be
located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This
boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and
northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening
low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing
for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during
the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme
instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich
theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for
large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can
remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all
severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes.
However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell
residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward
recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold
pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However,
if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher
tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time.

...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic...
Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe
weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to
the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio
River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist
airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant
outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some
storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots
of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises
should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially
scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado
threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact
locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time.

..Bentley.. 04/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 030600
SWODY2
SPC AC 030558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from
central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley
Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large
hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across much of
Arkansas into far southern Missouri, including strong tornado
potential.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, a broad fetch of south/southwest winds aloft will extend
from the southern Plains into the Midwest, as an upper low moves
across AZ/NM. A surface boundary will extend roughly from the OH
Valley into central TX early on Friday, with a wave of low pressure
developing during the day over northeast TX/southeast OK. This
feature will then translate northeastward along the front into IN/OH
late. As this occurs, a rather rapid warm frontal surge will occur
over AR and into far southern MO, aided by persistent southerly
deep-layer winds from surface to 850 mb. This will also result in a
rapid increase in instability, and shear favorable for supercells
with tornado potential.

Behind the low, a cold front will push across the remainder of
northern TX and into south-central TX. Although post frontal,
elevated instability will persist, with the influence of the upper
trough to the west resulting in overnight hail potential into
central TX.

...From Texas into Arkansas and toward the lower Ohio Valley...
Scattered showers and storms are likely near the front from the Red
River into northern AR/southern MO early in the day. Sufficient
instability and lapse rates, along with strong deep-layer shear will
favor hail potential.

During the day, areas of heating will occur over the warm sector,
which will remain very moist. Afternoon supercells are anticipated
over northeast TX/southeast OK into western AR, with a continuation
across northern AR/southern MO through evening. This area will
experience substantial pressure falls with a favorable corridor for
a strong tornado threat. Depicted model hodographs indicate
effective SRH over 400 m2/s2 will be common. Given continued
northward motion of the warm front across southeast MO into the OH
Valley late, storms should be able to persist/ride along with the
front with access to unstable air mass.

Overnight, cool temperatures aloft with the upper trough and a surge
of elevated theta-e from the southeast and atop the surface cold
front should favor widespread storms with large hail expected into
central TX.

..Jewell.. 04/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031732
SWODY2
SPC AC 031730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX
INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from
central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley
Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large
hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western
Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense
tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New
Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad,
strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into
Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower
tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm
front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at
the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR
border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should
be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some
2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially
EF3+).

...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas...
As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very
unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the
ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s
with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain
along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and
early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not
anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to
overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of
the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high
resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may
traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The
combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z
guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone
during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These
supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and
0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to
intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any
of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the
environment supports a tornado threat.

A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring
greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal
boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak,
but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with
minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete,
open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more
dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the
Day 1 timeframe.

...Missouri into the Ohio Valley...
Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther
northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into
western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development
are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared
environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of
storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay
along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat
with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to
the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind
gusts will be possible with any storms in this region.

...West Texas to Central Texas...
Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast
across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night
and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with
very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will
support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+")
early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and
orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level
trough.

..Bentley.. 04/03/2025

$$

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