ACUS03 KWNS 160728
SWODY3
SPC AC 160726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be
possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday
from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri.

...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri...
At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in
place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves
quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies.
During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place
ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into
the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are
forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow
corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and
southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through
the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to
09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa
have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with
elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area
is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear
of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km.
This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with
rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The
majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period,
between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday.

..Broyles.. 03/16/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 161919
SWODY3
SPC AC 161918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE
AND PARTS OF IA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the
overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska
across the southern two-thirds of Iowa.

...Southeast NE and IA...
A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary
embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the
central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in
the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley
by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf
will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion
previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along
the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will
exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited
moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection
should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale
ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at
most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated
severe hail.

..Grams.. 03/16/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 170730
SWODY3
SPC AC 170729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat will be possible on Wednesday from parts of
the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and
northern Gulf Coast states.

...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Northern Gulf
Coast States...
At the start of the period, scattered elevated storms with hail
potential are expected to be ongoing along a warm front from Iowa
into southwest Wisconsin. The storms will be located to the north
and northeast of a mid-level low moving through the mid Missouri
Valley. Ahead of the system, moisture advection associated with a
strong low-level jet will take place during the day across the mid
Mississippi Valley. By afternoon, the moist axis is forecast to be
located from eastern Mississippi northward into western Tennessee
and western Kentucky. Strong large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching trough will likely support isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development in the mid to late afternoon near the moist
axis. These storms will move eastward across the western part of the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys extending southward into the northern
Gulf Coast states.

Forecast soundings Wednesday afternoon have MLCAPE along and near
the moist axis only reaching then 250 to 500 J/kg. However, a
passing 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet streak will contribute to very
strong deep-layer shear across the region. For this reason, an
isolated severe threat is expected to develop during the late
afternoon. The environment should support hail, isolated severe
gusts and perhaps a marginal tornado threat with the strongest of
storms. The greatest severe threat could be in the vicinity of
northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and far northwest Alabama,
where some forecast soundings suggest the environment could support
isolated supercell development.

..Broyles.. 03/17/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 171929
SWODY3
SPC AC 171928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN IL AND
WESTERN IN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern
Illinois and western Indiana during the mid-afternoon to early
evening Wednesday. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard.

...Eastern Corn Belt to the Deep South...
In what is otherwise a favorable synoptic pattern for severe
potential, low-level moisture quality is expected to be the primary
limiting factor to greater coverage/intensity on Wednesday. At
present, surface dew points have finally modified into the 40s to
mid 50s along the immediate TX Coast, with upper 50s to low 60s in a
ribbon offshore. There is above-average agreement that a broadening
plume of mid 60s surface dew points should become established by
Wednesday afternoon across the western half of the immediate Gulf
Coast. A more narrow ribbon is expected northward with low 60s into
the Lower MS Valley to low/mid 50s in the Wabash Valley.

A 100-110 kt 500-mb jetlet should overspread the northern portion of
the weak buoyancy plume from the Mid-South to Wabash Valley on
Wednesday afternoon. Sustained convective development is expected by
early to mid-afternoon within the left-exit region of this jet in
IL, ahead of a deep (~990 mb) surface cyclone. Guidance does signal
that low-level winds outside of the warm front may be somewhat
veered, which would modulate hodograph curvature. Still, a few
supercells that may congeal into a fast-moving cluster are possible,
centered on the eastern IL to western IN vicinity from mid-afternoon
to early evening. Strong to severe wind gusts may be the primary
hazard, although some hail and tornado threat will be possible too.

Given the weak MLCAPE, relatively warm temperatures aloft south of
the mid-level jet may preclude sustained surface-based convective
development until early evening. Rather veered low-level winds
should further serve to marginalize the intensity/coverage of severe
potential across the TN Valley/Deep South.

..Grams.. 03/17/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 180707
SWODY3
SPC AC 180707

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday from parts of
the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina. A severe
threat is not expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A pre-frontal trough will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic
Coastal plains on Thursday, as an associated mid-level trough moves
through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Low-topped convection is
forecast to develop near the pre-frontal trough in the afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along an axis of strong
low-level flow from the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North
Carolina, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. However, MUCAPE
is forecast to remain below 200 J/kg along the instability axis,
which should limit the severe potential.

..Broyles.. 03/18/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 181914
SWODY3
SPC AC 181913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday from parts of
the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not
expected.

...Synopsis...
A progressive upper pattern will be in place over the CONUS on
Thursday, with a mid-level trough impinging on the West Coast as
another mid-level trough approaches the central Rockies and a third
upper trough ejects into the Atlantic. Though the central U.S.
trough will encourage strong lee troughing over the Plains, Gulf
moisture will be scoured from the previous departing trough and
associated surface cold front. Furthermore, surface high pressure
will overspread much of the eastern and western CONUS. The net
result will be widespread, stable conditions, with negligible
thunderstorm potential over much of the U.S., with two exceptions.

First, cold temperatures aloft and associated steep mid-level lapse
rates accompanying the aforementioned Rockies upper trough will
overspread portions of the northern Rockies, promoting enough lift
and buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a couple of lightning
flashes. Second, across the Mid Atlantic, just enough moisture to
foster marginal buoyancy ahead of a surface trough/cold front will
support isolated thunderstorm development before the cold front
moves offshore.

..Squitieri.. 03/18/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 190717
SWODY3
SPC AC 190715

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of
the Pacific Northwest, but no severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on
Friday. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent and mid-level
moisture may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development
across parts of Washington, northern Oregon and northern Idaho. No
severe threat is expected to develop.

..Broyles.. 03/19/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 191853
SWODY3
SPC AC 191852

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of
the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest, but no severe threat is
expected.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced, coupled mid-level/surface trough will traverse the
Midwest into the OH Valley as a mid-level impulse tracks from the
Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies on Friday. Some of the
latest guidance depicts a plume of cooler temperatures aloft
accompanying the Midwest/OH Valley mid-level trough, which may
support a few lightning flashes over these regions Friday into
Friday night. Likewise, cooler temperatures aloft will overspread
portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies as this
mid-level trough passes overhead, perhaps resulting in enough
buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes.

..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 200730
SWODY3
SPC AC 200729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat, with potential for large hail, is
expected Saturday night into early Sunday morning across parts of
the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks...
A mid-level trough will dig southeastward across the northern
Rockies on Saturday and into the central Plains Saturday night.
Moisture advection will take place during the day ahead of the
trough across the southern Plains and Ozarks. By early Saturday
evening, an axis of instability with surface dewpoints in the 50s F,
is forecast from east Texas northward into eastern Oklahoma and
southeastern Kansas. A cold front will advance quickly southeastward
through the central Plains Saturday evening, as a 50 to 60 knot jet
strengthens ahead of the front. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop late Saturday evening ahead of the front on the nose of
the low-level jet. During the overnight period, convection is
forecast to expand eastward from southeast Kansas across the Ozarks.
Isolated thunderstorms may also develop further southwestward into
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Forecast soundings from 06Z to 12Z on Sunday morning along the
instability axis have a low-level temperature inversion below 850
mb. Across parts of southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri, MUCAPE
is forecast to be in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, with effective
shear from 50 to 65 knots. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are
forecast to be around 7 C/km. This environment will likely support
isolated supercells that are elevated, with potential for large
hail. The greatest severe threat is expected to be after midnight,
as the low-level jet consolidates over far northeast Oklahoma. The
greatest severe threat is expected over southeast Kansas and
south-central Missouri, where confidence is the greatest for
convection initiation. Further to the southwest across parts of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, convective initiation is
more uncertain, suggesting that a severe threat there is more
conditional.

..Broyles.. 03/20/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 201911
SWODY3
SPC AC 201911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
MO...EASTERN OK/KS...AND NORTHWEST AR...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly from large hail, are possible
on Saturday night in/near the Ozark Plateau.

...MO/OK/KS/AR...
No change to the prior outlook of level 1-MRGL risk. Elevated severe
hail remains possible Saturday evening into the overnight, with
potential for a mesoscale area of level 2-SLGT in a future outlook.

The next in a series of shortwave troughs progressing from the
northern Rockies into the North-Central States will yield modified
moisture recovery from the western Gulf, beneath an increasingly expansive/stout EML. The degree of moistening depicted in some
models is questionable owing to predominately 20s/30s surface dew
points at present along the TX Gulf Coast. Elevated buoyancy will
likely remain weak with MUCAPE at/below 1000 J/kg. But strengthening
forcing for ascent should support elevated thunderstorms as early as
Saturday evening across the Ozark Plateau, increasing in coverage
during the night.

Within a predominately westerly mid to upper wind profile, given the
geometry of the northern Great Plains shortwave trough, favorable
speed shear should exist for at least a few elevated supercells. The potentially limited buoyancy and perhaps a more widespread
cluster-type convective mode may modulate the overall
coverage/intensity of the large hail threat. The southern extent of
convective development may have a sharp cutoff beyond the Ozarks
given the expected strength of the EML and neutral mid-level height
change through 12Z Sunday.

..Grams.. 03/20/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 210730
SWODY3
SPC AC 210730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE/CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to
northeastern Texas may pose a risk for locally damaging winds and
hail.

...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough crossing the central/northern Plains is forecast
to evolve into a closed low, that is then progged to drift eastward
into the Upper Great Lakes region through the period. As this
occurs, a surface low -- initially over the Minnesota vicinity --
will become increasingly occluded, and likewise will drift eastward
into the Upper Great Lakes.

At the surface, a weak triple-point low is forecast to shift
northeastward across the Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys through the
day, while a cold front sags southward into western Kentucky/western Tennessee/Arkansas/Texas. By the end of the period, this front
should extend from western Pennsylvania to the southern
Appalachians, and then westward into Texas.

...East Texas to the Tennessee Valley...
Daytime heating ahead of the cold front will combine with ample
warm-sector dewpoints to support airmass destabilization.
Mixed-layer CAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg in western Tennessee
to 1500 J/kg or so into eastern Texas seems likely evolve, and
should be sufficient to support development of scattered
strong/locally severe storms. Updraft intensity will be aided by
weakly veering/increasing flow with height through the mid
troposphere, with shear sufficient for organized/rotating updrafts.
While a tornado or two may be possible, greater risk appears to be
hail and locally damaging wind gusts. This risk should peak through
late afternoon, after which diurnal cooling/stabilization should
result in a gradual decrease in storm intensity/severe potential.

..Goss.. 03/21/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 211905
SWODY3
SPC AC 211904

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to
northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, though
a tornado cannot be completely ruled out, especially over northern
Mississippi.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will progress across the central CONUS as a
surface cyclone drifts over the Great Lakes and an associated cold
front sweeps across the OH Valley to Lower MS Valley regions on
Sunday. Relatively rich low-level moisture will advect northeastward
across the Lower MS Valley with the aid of a departing low-level
jet, promoting enough buoyancy amid a sheared airmass to support
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms.

...Lower MS Valley...
As the surface cold front approaches the Lower MS/TN Valley regions
Sunday afternoon, surface heating across the warm sector will
support temperatures rising into the 70s F amid low to mid 60s F
dewpoints. An EML is poised to overspread this warm/moist low-level
airmass, boosting MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg in spots, but also introducing
some convective inhibition within the 850-700 mb layer. Since
stronger upper-level support will drift to the northeast with time,
the primary forcing mechanism for convection will be low-level
convergence associated with the surface cold front. Given 50 kts of
effective bulk shear, multicells, supercells, and short line
segments are the expected modes for any thunderstorms that can
mature and become established. At least severe wind/hail will
accompany these storms, assuming they do not become immediately
undercut by the cold front.

Tornado potential is somewhat less certain given aforementioned
concerns with inhibition and an undercutting cold front. However,
the trailing/residual portion of a southwesterly low-level jet will
persist across northern MS by late Sunday afternoon/early evening,
contributing to sizeable, curved low-level hodographs. If surface
heating can overcome inhibition to support any sustained, robust
convective updrafts appreciably ahead of the cold front, supercells
could develop with a tornado threat. However, confidence in this
scenario is low at this time.

..Squitieri.. 03/21/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 220730
SWODY3
SPC AC 220729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EAST TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
afternoon, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia
and the Florida Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
An amplifying upper trough is forecast to move slowly eastward
across the eastern U.S. Monday, with broad cyclonic flow to
encompass the eastern 3/4 of the country by Tuesday morning.

At the surface, an occluded low over the Lake Huron vicinity early,
should weaken and drift northeastward toward/across the Ottawa
Valley through the period. A trailing cold front is forecast to
advance southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf Coast region,
while lingering over, and eventually retreating northward across,
Texas.

...Southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the
Florida Panhandle...
As the cold front shifts southward toward the Gulf Coast Monday, heating/destabilization should be sufficient in the vicinity of the
boundary to support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates
are not forecast to be particularly steep, which will limit
instability, and flow aloft is forecast to gradually weaken from
west to east across the region with time as the upper trough shifts
eastward. Still, ample CAPE/shear may remain present across the
central Gulf Coast region and vicinity to support local risk for
marginal hail and or strong wind gusts during mainly the afternoon
hours.

..Goss.. 03/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 221915
SWODY3
SPC AC 221913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
afternoon, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia
and the Florida Panhandle.

...Southeast LA to southwest GA and the FL Panhandle...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be going near a surface cold
front across portions of the central Gulf Coast region Monday
morning as remnants of overnight convection across the Lower MS and
TN Valleys. As an upper trough continues to slowly shift east across
the eastern U.S., deep layer southwesterly flow will gradually
weaken from west to east through the day. Ample boundary layer
moisture will be in place ahead of the southeastward progressing
cold front. However, lapse rates are expected to remain modest
through at least 700 mb, limiting stronger instability.
Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and shear will exist to support
isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail.

..Leitman.. 03/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 230731
SWODY3
SPC AC 230730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. for
Tuesday.

...Discussion...
A western ridge/eastern trough pattern will generally prevail
into/through the Day 3 period (Tuesday). Late in the period, height
falls associated with an approaching eastern Pacific trough will
begin affecting the Pacific Northwest region.

Isolated thunderstorm development is conditionally possible during
late afternoon over parts of North Texas near the remnant surface
front, where a deeply mixed boundary layer topped by weak CAPE will
exist. Gusty winds would be possible in this scenario. Greater
storm development may occur farther west -- into the Texas Panhandle
vicinity near/north of the front overnight, as the boundary layer
cools and a low-level jet develops. While small hail would be
possible as storms spread east-southeastward through the end of the
period, CAPE should remain marginal enough to largely preclude risk
for severe-caliber hail.

..Goss.. 03/23/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 231902
SWODY3
SPC AC 231900

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper
ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the
end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the
Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow.

Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across
portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest
boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization
ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak,
limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds
will be possible.

Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the
vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley
and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer
destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of
afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing
will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal
thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly
jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for
isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this
scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/23/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 240731
SWODY3
SPC AC 240730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/severe storms will be possible across portions of the
Pacific Northwest on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A slowly progressive upper pattern will persist across the U.S.
Wednesday, as an eastern U.S. trough continues to advance slowly
toward the Atlantic Coast. Upstream, ridging over the interior West
will gradually expand into the Plains, while still farther upstream,
a second upper trough over the eastern Pacific approaches the
northwestern states.

At the surface, the primary feature will be a cold front shifting
into/across the Pacific Northwest, while the parent occluded low
remains offshore through the period.

...Portions of the Northwest...
As the eastern Pacific upper low nears the Pacific Northwest Coast,
cold air aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the area,
atop low 50s surface dewpoints. This will combine with afternoon
heating to support development of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE.

Meanwhile, the approach of the upper system will also allow
deep-layer south-southwesterly flow to increase across the area,
allowing shear to become favorable for supporting organized updrafts
-- potentially including a few rotating storms. As such, local risk
for hail and/or damaging wind gusts may evolve during the afternoon
and evening, spreading across parts of Washington and Oregon and
possibly into western/northern Idaho by evening. While coverage of
the stronger storms should remain rather sparse, the degree of risk
appears to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk across this area.

..Goss.. 03/24/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 241923
SWODY3
SPC AC 241922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
OR/WA/NORTHERN ID...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

...Pacific Northwest...
Synoptic pattern appears favorable for early-season severe
potential. Largely maintained a broad level 1-MRGL risk with overall
scenario supporting at least isolated severe-storm potential. Parts
of the region, focused west of the Cascades and over eastern
OR/southeast WA, may warrant a level 2-SLGT risk delineation in
later outlooks.

A vigorous shortwave trough is expected to approach the Pacific
Northwest coast through the period. An intense mid-level jetlet,
near 100 kts at 500 mb, ahead of the trough should overspread areas
west of the Cascades by Wednesday evening. Near-record to record
high temperatures are anticipated amid a preceding highly amplified
mid/upper ridge shifting east. This should support areas of 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer
wind profile, the pronounced strengthening of flow should support
potential for a few supercells west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes
by peak heating. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be
progressively weaker and the boundary layer should be more deeply
mixed. As such, potential exists for a thunderstorm cluster moving north-northeast across parts of eastern OR/southeast WA/northern ID
during the late afternoon and evening. Strong to at least isolated
severe gusts may be the primary threat in this latter regime.

..Grams.. 03/24/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 250736
SWODY3
SPC AC 250736

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/severe storms will be possible Thursday from the Mid
Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, and across parts of western
and southern Texas.

...Synopsis...
Deamplification of the upper pattern across the U.S. is expected
Thursday, as an eastern U.S. trough departs into the Atlantic, and
deamplifying eastern Pacific troughing shifts into the West.
Meanwhile, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to cross
northern Mexico and the southern Plains through Friday morning.

At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance across the
Intermountain West, associated with the filling/occluded low off the
Pacific Northwest coast. Meanwhile, a warm front is forecast to
advance northward across the central U.S., and should extend from
the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley by the
end of the period.

...Portions of western and southern Texas, including the Rio Grande
Valley...
Afternoon heating will result in airmass destabilization across
Texas, as cool air aloft associated with the southern-stream trough
spreads across the region. While flow aloft will remain modest,
ample CAPE suggests a few stronger storms will be possible, with
risk for hail and gusty/damaging winds. Coverage of stronger
convection should remain sparse, but enough to warrant introduction
of 5%/MRGL risk for the afternoon and evening hours.

...Mid Missouri Valley across the Corn Belt...
Low-level warm advection will be maximized near and north of a warm
front advancing northward across the central CONUS. Sufficiently
steep mid-level lapse rates will support ample elevated CAPE,
resulting in a zone of strong storm potential from eastern Nebraska east-southeastward to Indiana. With west-northwesterly mid-level
flow expected to average around 35 kt near the frontal zone,
sufficient shear will exist to allow occasionally stronger storms to
evolve -- a few capable of producing severe-caliber hail.

..Goss.. 03/25/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 251922
SWODY3
SPC AC 251921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into
the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into
Thursday night.

...South TX to the Trans-Pecos...
Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection
ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association
with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that
one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep
South TX may occur through late morning into midday before
convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of
stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM,
appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development
to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But
with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream
low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield
renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley.

...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys...
Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday
across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the
northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy
gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might
develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across
the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in
northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming
likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening.
With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing
to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe
hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within
the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may
support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat.

..Grams.. 03/25/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 260733
SWODY3
SPC AC 260732

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NEBRASK VICINITY...AND FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/severe storms may occur from parts of East Texas to the
Lower Mississippi Valley, and also across portions of the Nebraska
vicinity overnight.

...Eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across eastern portions of
the southern Plains, in conjunction with the slow-moving
southern-stream trough crossing the area. As the trough continues
moving slowly east-northeastward, daytime heating away from ongoing clouds/convection will allow the airmass to destabilize, supporting
additional convective development.

Mid-level flow will remain rather weak across the area. However,
ahead of the low, moderate low-level southeasterlies veering to
southwesterly through mid levels should result in shear sufficient
for organized/weakly rotating storms. Convection will spread into Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon and evening, accompanied by
the risk for locally gusty winds, and possibly a brief tornado or
two, warrant inclusion of low (5%) severe-weather probability at
this time.

...Nebraska vicinity...
As a weak frontal low shifts eastward out of the central High Plains
into western Kansas, in response to a short-wave trough crossing the
Rockies, elevated storms seem fairly likely to develop in a zone of
focused warm advection northeast of the low, across the Nebraska
vicinity. Relatively steep lapse rates combined with moderate
mid-level lapse rates/instability and moderate mid-level
southwesterlies suggest potential for a few stronger storms to
produce hail, during the overnight hours.

..Goss.. 03/26/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 261925
SWODY3
SPC AC 261925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the western Gulf
Coast States on Friday into Friday night, and from Nebraska into
parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night.

...East/south TX and LA...
A below-average confidence forecast is apparent with extensive
preceding convection late D1 through D2 ahead of a low-amplitude
shortwave trough drifting east-northeast across south TX.
Moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profiles should be prevalent ahead of
this trough on Friday. Surface-based destabilization will probably
remain weak but occur within a rich western Gulf airmass. Moderate
low-level shear may be adequate for brief tornado and localized
damaging wind threats through the period. These should be focused in
the first half of the period along the TX coastal plain before
shifting more into LA on Friday afternoon and lingering along the LA
coast through Friday night.

...NE to WI...
Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent
within a stout EML atop a pronounced baroclinic zone from the Upper
Midwest into the central High Plains. With potential for multiple, low-amplitude shortwave impulses migrating through the zonal flow
regime along the international border and moving northeast across
the central/southern Rockies, isolated to scattered convective
development is anticipated by Friday evening/night. Most of this
activity should tend to be elevated or become undercut as the
baroclinic zone shifts southeast with a building surface ridge from
the Canadian Prairies. Faster mid-level westerlies should occur
across the southern MN to WI corridor, with stronger low-level mass
response in NE. Setup should support an isolated large hail threat.

..Grams.. 03/26/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 270737
SWODY3
SPC AC 270736

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms developing Saturday evening may pose local risk for
hail and potentially strong wind gusts.

...portions of Oklahoma northeastward into Iowa/Illinois...
Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the forecast for Saturday
across the central U.S. -- with models exhibiting notable
differences with respect to evolution of the surface pattern.
Additionally, the NAM in particular maintains strong capping across
the warm sector, which will likely hinder convective development for
much of the period -- and potentially limiting convective to being
primarily elevated/nocturnal.

At this time, it appears that a corridor for initial storm
development will be over the eastern Kansas vicinity, as a cold
front moves across the area trailing from a frontal wave/low
shifting eastward across roughly the Kansas City area during the
evening. Convection may evolve mainly to the cool side of this
boundary as a strong south-southwesterly low-level jet develops,
though a few at least nearly surface-based storms are expected.
Though mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, shear will be
sufficient for a few stronger storms to evolve -- aided by steep
lapse rates aloft. Large hail will likely be the primary risk,
though a strong gusty or two may also occur.

Expect adjustments to the risk area and/or risk level, as greater
certainty evolves with time in this complex scenario.

..Goss.. 03/27/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 271928
SWODY3
SPC AC 271927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OK
TO NORTHERN MO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma
into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to
very large hail could be the primary hazard, but severe gusts and a
couple tornadoes may occur.

...Central States...
Primary changes with this outlook are to add a level 2-SLGT risk and
expand the level 1-MRGL along the dryline through TX.

A broad negative-tilt mid/upper trough, with at least a few embedded
shortwave impulses, will shift east from the West into the Central
States by early Sunday. A northern/leading impulse will aid in
cyclogenesis into Saturday evening over the Lower MO Valley. A
southern/basal impulse will yield a separate cyclone over the
eastern TX Panhandle/western OK border area. Boundary-layer moisture
will be richer ahead of the southern cyclone beneath a stout EML.
Guidance consensus suggests early evening thunderstorm development
should occur along the northwest edge of the low to mid 60s surface
dew point plume, centered on south-central KS/north-central OK.
Additional storms will probably form northeastward along the front
into the Lower MO Valley. The degree of convective coverage with
southern extent is more nebulous, but there are signals for isolated
cells as far south as the Edwards Plateau.

Convection along much of the front northeast of OK should tend to
grow upscale into clusters given the flow orientation relative to
the boundary and initially moderate mid-level winds. A more
favorable discrete supercell wind profile exists in OK, posing a
conditional very large hail and tornado threat along this portion of
the dryline Saturday evening.

..Grams.. 03/27/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280741
SWODY3
SPC AC 280740

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across
an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower
Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds,
and strong tornadoes are expected.

...Synopsis...
An evolving/slowly amplifying mid-level trough is forecast to shift
slowly across the central U.S. Sunday. As this occurs, a deepening
surface low will shift northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes
region. A trailing cold front will sweep southeastward across the
central U.S. as the low deepens/advances, and should extend from the
Lower Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast states by Monday
morning.

...Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys...
A broad/moist but initially capped airmass is forecast to expand
across much of the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday, ahead of the
advancing cold front. Daytime heating, and continued northward flux
of low-level moisture will result in a moderate destabilization.

Scattered storms may be ongoing across portions of Missouri
northeastward to the Wisconsin area at the start of the period, and
possibly in a more isolated manner southwestward into Texas. Local
severe risk may accompany this early-day convection. The
aforementioned destabilization that is expected should support
renewed storm development near the advancing cold front -- initially
from Illinois southwestward to East Texas, and then spreading eastward/expanding in coverage with time.

Along with the favorable thermodynamic environment within which the
storms will be evolving, highly favorable shear will also exist,
with low-level southerly/southwesterly flow veering and increasing substantially with height yielding curved -- and then elongated --
hodographs. Supercells are expected within this environment, and
very large hail is expected given the cold air/steep lapse rates
through the mid troposphere. Along with the hail risk, damaging
wind gusts are expected -- particularly where upscale growth into
bands occurs. Additionally, this setup appears very favorable for
tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/potentially long-lived.

Risk will spread eastward with time into the evening/overnight.
Some diminishing of the risk should occur late into the upper Ohio
Valley, but vigorous storms and all-hazards risk will likely
continue through the end of the period across the Tennessee
Valley/Gulf Coast states.

..Goss.. 03/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 281932
SWODY3
SPC AC 281931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across
an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower
Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds,
and strong tornadoes are expected.

...Synopsis...
A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will
move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded
shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface
low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front
will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while
dryline will be present in East Texas.

...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm
activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface
low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these
storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact
destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio.
Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards,
but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree
of surface heating that occurs.

Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be
impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone
where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level
wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating
boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to
it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and
strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts.

...Mid-South...
Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected
to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being
typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an
elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface
heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the
cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some
indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up.
Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase
along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk.
Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas
given the southward displacement from the surface low. However,
forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be
more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even
without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface
heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe
storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread
damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes.

...East Texas/Sabine Valley...
A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in
this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse
rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells
capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and
tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and
lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time.

..Wendt.. 03/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 290731
SWODY3
SPC AC 290730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Monday from portions of the
Northeast southwestwad to the central Gulf Coast region.

...Portions of New York and Pennsylvania south-southwestward to the
central Gulf Coast...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along/ahead of
a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the
period/Monday morning. Severe weather is likely to accompany some
of the early-period convection. As the front advances across the
higher terrain through the afternoon, some destabilization is
expected -- modest across the Northeast, but more substantial with
southward extent, from roughly Virginia southward. This will
support an increase in storm coverage/intensity through the
afternoon hours.

Across northern portions of the outlook, the primary risk in the
very modest CAPE environment will be locally damaging wind gusts.
Farther south, an all-hazards risk is anticipated, including hail
and potentially a few tornadoes. As is the case for Sunday, farther
west, the NAM remains more bullish with respect to lapse rates/CAPE,
and would support potentially greater than SLGT risk potential from
roughly the Carolinas southwestward to Georgia and southern Alabama.
However, uncertainty regarding pre-frontal clouds/convection across
the Southeast early precludes inclusion of higher probabilities at
this time.

By evening, storms moving into southern New England should weaken,
along with diminishing severe potential in part due to a cooler
marine boundary layer. However, risk will likely continue through
the evening farther south, until storms clear the middle and
southern Atlantic coasts overnight.

..Goss.. 03/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 291928
SWODY3
SPC AC 291927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE
PART OF THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Monday from portions of the
Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region.

...Synopsis...
A surface low is forecast to intensify as it moves northeastward
from the Lower Great Lakes into southeast Canada through the day
Monday morning in tandem with a leading shortwave trough. A trailing
cold front is expected to push east/southeast into the upper OH
River Valley and lower MS Valley/Southeast early Monday morning as a
second low-amplitude wave traverses the eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm
potential will be focused along this front as it continues to push
into New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and into the southeast states
through the late afternoon and evening hours.

...Central Gulf States...
Strong to severe thunderstorms may be ongoing by 12z Monday as a
squall line forced along the cold front continues to push southeast
across MS and AL. A combination of rich low-level moisture ahead of
the line, diurnal heating, strong low to mid-level flow, and broad
scale ascent ahead of the secondary upper wave should help maintain
convective intensity into the afternoon hours. A corridor of
damaging/severe winds, and potentially embedded tornadoes, appears
probable from central MS into AL and western GA.

...Central Appalachians...
Thunderstorm development along the front is expected by early to
mid-afternoon from the upper OH Valley southward into the
Mid-Atlantic region. Returning moisture through the Carolinas
northward into eastern PA/western NY, combined with mid-level lapse
rates around 7 C/km, should support sufficient buoyancy for deep
convection, though buoyancy values should diminish with northward
extent across the central Appalachians. Moderate flow within the
lowest few kilometers should support a damaging wind threat as
convection matures along the front across the upper OH Valley.
Further south, stronger ascent ahead of the secondary upper wave
should promote better storm organization, including the potential
for semi-discrete cells and/or organized linear segments.
Medium-range guidance suggests low-level winds will strengthen
across the Mid-Atlantic region as a weak secondary low deepens
through late afternoon in the lee of the Appalachians, which may
support an enlargement of the 0-3 km hodograph and a locally higher
tornado threat across the Carolinas into VA.

..Moore.. 03/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 300733
SWODY3
SPC AC 300732

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop after dark from central
and northeastern Kansas east-northeastward to northwestern Illinois,
where large hail would be the main severe risk.

...Mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valley, southward into Texas...
Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to amplify over the western U.S.
Tuesday, as several short-wave features rotate through the flow. A prominent/initial wave is forecast to shift into the
central/northern Plains overnight, evolving into a closed low over
the South Dakota/Nebraska area. In response, a surface low over the
central High Plains early in the day is forecast to deepen/shift
northeastward into the Mid Missouri Valley area overnight. A
trailing cold front will shift across the central and southern
Plains through the second half of the period.

Diurnal convection ahead of the advancing upper system, and
attendant cold front, should remain largely suppressed through the
day by stout capping. A dryline storm or two cannot be ruled out,
and very limited/conditional potential for hail or a damaging gust
may exist across southern Oklahoma south into central Texas.

Greater risk will evolve overnight, mainly with elevated storms near
and north of a warm front lifting across Kansas/Missouri. Large
hail would be the primary risk in this area, with shear favoring
supercells. While the NAM hinders convection south of Kansas
through the period (due to maintenance of a capping inversion), both
the GFS and ECMWF suggest that isolated storms may initiate along
the cold front. While only MRGL risk will be included at this time,
due to the conditional risk for surface-based/all-hazards risk
should storms develop along the front, this will need to be
reassessed in later outlooks with possible SLGT risk upgrade.

..Goss.. 03/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 301931
SWODY3
SPC AC 301930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon
across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat
expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail,
severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Synopsis...
The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the
central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially
significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday
evening and early Wednesday morning.

...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest...
A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great
Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet
will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a
intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains
during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level
moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will
advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with
a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be
in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though
lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development.

At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early
evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of
the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a
risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells
that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic,
as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase.

Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional
storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward
across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions
remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can
remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards
could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms
may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of
large hail and locally damaging gusts.

..Dean.. 03/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 310742
SWODY3
SPC AC 310741

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday
night from the Lower Great Lakes, the Mid MS Valley and the
ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant
tornadoes are expected.

...Synopsis...
A powerful, negative tilt, upper trough will move out of the Plains,
over the Midwest and into the Great Lakes Wednesday. Accompanied by
a 100+ kt jet streak, very strong forcing for ascent will overspread
a large unstable warm sector from the Great Lakes, OH Valley and MS
Valley. A strong cold front will sweep eastward with widespread to
numerous thunderstorms expected.

An outbreak of widespread severe storms including: significant
tornadoes, severe wind gusts and very large hail is possible
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

...Midwest to the lower Great Lakes and OH Valley...
Early in the forecast period, one or more clusters of thunderstorms
are likely to be ongoing across portions of KS/MO into the upper MS
Valley. Very strong synoptic ascent at the exit region of the H5 jet
may allow these storms to persist through the morning as the air
mass downstream slowly destabilizes. Re-intensification is possible
as storms move farther northeast into the lower Great Lakes by early
to mid afternoon. Depending on the timing, these storms may also
outrun the warm sector. This could limit the severe potential to
points farther south if the airmass is unable to recover.
Regardless, very strong effective shear (60-80 kt) and large
hodographs would support organized storms capable of significant
damaging winds, and a tornado risk.

...Mid MS Valley...
Immediately southeast of the primary upper low track, more subtle
forcing for ascent will overspread a rapidly moistening air mass
across the Ozarks, eastern OK and the Mid MS Valley. The air mass
will rapidly destabilize and become uncapped with MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg likely by mid to late morning. Storms are likely to
form by midday as ascent overspreads a pre-frontal trough/diffuse
dryline. Some boundary parallel flow is likely suggesting a mixed
mode of cellular and bowing segments. However, the very strong
troposphereic shear profiles, courtesy of a 50+ kt low-level jet,
favor significant supercells as the primary storm mode. A secondary
surface low will serve to further back low-level flow and expand
very large hodographs from the late afternoon into the evening
hours. Very large hail, significant tornadoes and damaging winds all
appear likely. The severe threat will continue overnight with some
upscale growth across the Mid MS/TN Valley within the broadly
unstable air mass.

Consideration was given to higher severe probabilities across parts
of the Mid MS Valley for the potential for multiple long-lived
significant supercells. However, confidence in the exact storm mode
and location of maximum threat remains unclear given some potential
for morning convection and model timing variance.

...ArkLaTX...
Displaced south of the primary wave, forcing for ascent is somewhat
weaker than farther north. Isolated to scattered convection is
expected along the advancing Pacific front/surface trough from mid
to late afternoon from northeast TX, into northern LA and southern
AR. Upper 60s F dewpoints and elongated hodographs suggest
supercells with all hazards will be possible as they spread east
into the lower MS valley overnight.

Later in the evening, a second round of convection may evolve near
the Red River as low-level warm advection increases. The Pacific
front should gradually lift north as a warm front, allowing some
elevated thunderstorms to develop across southern OK and north TX.
Moderate buoyancy and continued strong flow aloft would likely
support a risk for hail.

..Lyons/Goss.. 03/31/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 311931
SWODY3
SPC AC 311930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday
night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the
ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant
tornadoes are expected.

...Synopsis...
No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from
tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast
portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still
appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread
damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in
subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area.

A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will
move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions
on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads
parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to
the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe
storms expected along/ahead of the front.

...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...
One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday
morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may
persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or
redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction
with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of
substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence
of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear
will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if
surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region
during the afternoon and evening.

...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity...
Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into
the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a
persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary
surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region
with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level
difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the
front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region.

The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells,
with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer
shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some
potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the
likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal
corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any
supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very
large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front.

With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day
storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of
widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook.
However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will
eventually be needed for some part of the region.

...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight...
A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western
CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge
from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to
slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex,
with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday
morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to
strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of
organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will
accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve
with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary.

..Dean.. 03/31/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010731
SWODY3
SPC AC 010730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
A broad area of strong to severe storms is expected along a frontal
zone from the ArkLaTex, Mid MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys and the
Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks, though
a few tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
An elongated frontal zone, stretching from the Red River, to the Mid
MS and OH Valleys and into the Mid Atlantic will serve as the
primary focus for severe storms Thursday and Thursday night. Broad
troughing and strong flow will support the potential for fairly wide
coverage of strong to severe storms over a broad area.

...Red River to the Mid MS Valley...
Along and south of the front, a rich low-level air mass (dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will be in place with ample buoyancy.
Strong shear will overspread a large area from eastern TX, across
southern AR and into the Mid MS Valley much of the day. Mid-level
lapse rates are not overly steep and capping is weak, with most
guidance showing a broad area of potential convective coverage from
continuous warm air advection through much of the period. Thus, it
seems likely that several clusters of storms, possibly supercells,
will likely develop near the front and gradually spread east
northeast through the afternoon and evening hours. Deep-layer winds
are strong indicating potential for hail, along with damaging gusts
given the potential for numerous storm interactions. The risk for
tornadoes is less clear, but given supercell wind profiles and
fairly sizable low-level hodographs, some threat will likely exist.

An additional severe risk is possible late Thursday into early
Friday as the upper-level pattern amplifies. Strongly meridional
flow will overspread the stalled front supporting a broad warm air
advection regime across the southern Plains. Ample elevated buoyancy
is expected overnight with a risk for hail and isolated damaging
winds across central and north TX into southeastern OK.

...OH/TN Valleys into the Mid Atlantic...
As the front sags southward and eventually stalls, strong mid-level
flow will gradually align with the frontal zone across the OH Valley
into the Mid Atlantic. While there remains considerable uncertainty
on the presence of convection along and north of the front,
plentiful moisture is likely to reside along and south of it.
Several embedded mid-level perturbations may provide enough ascent
for additional convective development through the day. Several
clusters of strong to severe storms are possible along the front
with a risk primarily for damaging winds, given the relatively poor
mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow. The northern and
eastward extent of the severe risk is low confidence, owing to model differences regarding the location and convective coverage along the
stalled front.

..Lyons.. 04/01/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011928
SWODY3
SPC AC 011927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TO MUCH OF THE MID-MS VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC....

...SUMMARY...
A broad area of strong to severe storms is expected along a frontal
zone from the ArkLaTex, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the
primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
An elongated frontal zone, stretching from the Red River to the Mid
MS and OH Valleys and into the Mid Atlantic, will serve as the
primary focus for severe storms Thursday and Thursday night. Broad
troughing and strong flow will support the potential for fairly wide
coverage of strong to severe storms over a large area.

...Red River to the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across from the Ohio Valley
to the Red River at the beginning of the period as a broad low-level
jet interacts with a frontal zone. Some of this activity could be
severe at the beginning of the period, especially near the Red
River, where steeper lapse rates and stronger isentropic ascent is
forecast. If this activity near the Red River can maintain along the instability gradient, it could materialize into an increasing severe
threat into Arkansas perhaps as early as mid-morning. However, given
the strength of the low-level jet, expect substantial precipitation
in the morning across Arkansas which could limit eastward
continuation of the early threat.

However, regardless of how the morning activity evolves, there will
likely be a corridor from the ArkLaTex to near Memphis where strong
instability and strong shear will be present south of any ongoing
thunderstorm activity. Maintenance of a low-level jet through the
day should provide ample ascent for thunderstorm development.
However, rising heights ahead of the deepening western CONUS trough
do cast some doubt on convective coverage. In addition, a more
robust cold pool could limit longevity of any storms within this
better environment before moving into the rain-cooled air.

...OH/TN Valleys into the Mid Atlantic...
As the front sags southward and eventually stalls, strong mid-level
flow will gradually align with the frontal zone across the OH Valley
into the Mid Atlantic. While there remains considerable uncertainty
on the presence of convection along and north of the front,
plentiful moisture is likely to reside along and south of it.
Several embedded mid-level perturbations may provide enough ascent
for additional convective development through the day. Several
clusters of strong to severe storms are possible along the front
with a risk primarily for damaging winds, given the relatively poor
mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow. The northern and
eastward extent of the severe risk is low confidence, owing to model differences regarding the location and convective coverage along the
stalled front.

..Bentley.. 04/01/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020731
SWODY3
SPC AC 020730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID MS VALLEY...AND INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY....

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the
Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the
lower OH Valley Friday and Friday night.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen
Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico.
Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern
Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and
eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside
along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH
Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible
within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large
buoyancy/shear.

...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex...
A band of elevated storms is likely to be ongoing at the start of
the period from central/northwestern TX into southern OK. Hail
appears likely with this activity as it meanders along and north of
the front. The risk for hail and damaging gusts should continue
eastward as storms shift eastward through the day. Reinforced by
this convection and increasing low-level cold advection, the front
should begin to move southward early in the period, assuming a more
north-south orientation.

An elongated surface low should develop along the front backing
low-level winds through the day. A band of storms will form near the
front and spread east/northeast into the ArkLaTex into Friday
evening. Strong southerly flow aloft and a 40-50 kt low-level jet
may support a mixed convective mode with the potential for all
hazards.

....MS/OH Valleys...
Embedded within the amplified south/southwesterly flow aloft,
several perturbations will track north along a well-defined inverted
trough across the MS and lower OH valleys. A weak wave cyclone,
associated with the upper jet max, will also shift north providing
some focus for convective potential through the late afternoon and
into the overnight hours as it draws deeper moisture northward into
the OH Valley. Strong low-level warm advection of seasonably deep
moisture will support moderate buoyancy along and south of the
front. With weak ascent spread over much of the frontal zone,
several clusters of strong to severe storms with the potential for
damaging winds and a couple tornadoes appear likely.

..Lyons.. 04/02/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021928
SWODY3
SPC AC 021927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX TO THE MO BOOTHEEL...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the
Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the
lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be from the
ArkLaTex to the Missouri Bootheel.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen
Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico.
Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern
Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and
eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside
along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH
Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible
within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large
buoyancy/shear.

...ArkLaTex to the MO Bootheel...
An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place across East
Texas and Louisiana Friday morning with mean mixing ratios of 15 to
16 g/kg forecast. During the morning, the front will move north
across Arkansas as a warm front with strong instability developing
across much of the state by mid day. During the afternoon ascent
will increase as height falls overspread the region, the low-level
jet strengthens, and the influence of the left entrance region of
the upper-level jet streak is realized. This should result in
scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon in an
environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE (per ECMWF forecast
soundings). Storms will likely develop along the surface front
during the early afternoon with greater uncertainty whether forcing
will be sufficient enough for discrete development ahead of the
front. Either way, the instability and 45-55 knots of effective
shear should be sufficient for supercells capable of all hazards
with eventual upscale growth and an increasing wind threat along the
front. The strong tornado/very large hail threat will be more
closely tied to the potential for maintenance of discrete supercells
and due to these uncertainties, no hatched area has been added at
this time.

...Ohio Valley...
Additional severe thunderstorms are possible farther northeast in
the Ohio Valley both during the day and into the overnight hours.
Weaker instability and mid-level lapse rates, in addition to ongoing
convection and cloud cover from Friday morning convection, casts
uncertainties on a greater threat. However, sufficient instability
and shear along the frontal zone should support at least some threat
for isolated to scattered severe storms.

...Central Texas to northern and northeast Texas...
Between 00Z and 06Z a mid-level jet streak is forecast to eject from
northern Mexico into south-central Texas. As this occurs, a
low-level jet will strengthen across south Texas into central Texas.
Amid 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE, initially elevated supercells are expected
to develop. As ascent continues to increase across the southern
Plains, expect additional thunderstorm development Friday night with
some severe threat persisting into Saturday morning. Eventually,
these storms will likely become surface based given the rich
moisture in place across East Texas. Moderate instability and strong
low-level shear will support a threat for all severe hazards, but
some relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer may limit a
greater severe weather threat in the absence of diurnal
destabilization.

..Bentley.. 04/02/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030731
SWODY3
SPC AC 030730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are
forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley.

...Synopsis...
On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max
will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into
the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches,
winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel
winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys.

At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into
central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The
northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary
through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave
developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front,
with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern
AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help
maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level
shear for a tornado risk.

...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley...
Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the
OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by
low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg
MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail.

Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective
AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast.
However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets
of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western
TN/northern MS.

Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel
lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days.
However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells
and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it
surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast
into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk
area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks.

..Jewell.. 04/03/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031924
SWODY3
SPC AC 031923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are
forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the
Tennessee Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a
larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet
streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a
closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the
ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing
frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An
unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front
which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on
Saturday and Saturday night.

...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells
across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the
period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring
dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely
support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as
it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will
strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such
as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into
Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone.
The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing
and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust
morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater
supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced
available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting
mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface
low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a
significant severe weather threat on Saturday.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley...
Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front
from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning.
Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant
destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist
airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south
of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms
from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania.

..Bentley.. 04/03/2025

$$

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