ACUS11 KWNS 161821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161821=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-161945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0232
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...northern and central Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 52...

Valid 161821Z - 161945Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 52 continues.

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts or a tornado cannot be ruled
out through the remainder of the afternoon. An extension to Tornado
Watch 52 or a new watch may be needed if storms maintain their
intensity.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues across the northern
and central portions of the FL peninsula. Upper support continues to
drift away from FL, which may limit thunderstorm intensity and
severe potential to some degree. However, downstream ample heating
is boosting MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg, with residual strong flow
aloft still contributing to 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. As
such, it is unclear the extent of future severe potential. Local
temporal extensions of Tornado Watch 52, or the issuance of a new
WW, may be needed if storms show signs of further organization or
intensity.

..Squitieri.. 03/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6HzQ8KXxMXGzJ2E-tMk6dS2dve0558GeyNkwj_gG3HB9nuSCuCKSVL-k8eJ5wAesBb5Jewq4T= mQDwR66c91MHbY8Xbo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 28768334 30648225 31038168 30688141 29768102 29218126
28458209 28218271 28178294 28228325 28768334=20


=3D =3D =3D
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