ACUS11 KWNS 162218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162217=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-170015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0517 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...parts of central and northeast North
Carolina...much of central into eastern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 162217Z - 170015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storms is expected this evening, and
at least a few may become severe. Conditions remain favorable for a
brief tornado or damaging gusts.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows rain-cooled air over much of
southeast VA into northeast NC currently. However, also noted are
mid 60s F dewpoints extending south of this region, and a plume of
mid 70s F temperatures just west and ahead of the cold front.

Given the progression of the cold front and a strong low-level jet
this evening, some uptick in storm coverage is plausible. Hodographs
from forecast soundings still show favorable hodographs for
tornadoes and supercells, especially over the eastern half of VA and
NC. As such, any robust storm that moves into the higher shear
region may become capable of a tornado.=20
=20
Instability is not particularly strong, however, sufficient to
support localized wind damage or tornado risk.

..Jewell/Bunting.. 03/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6JF-orlMm64RM-N9iKBndsSOmIniKL7L1rydG5K9CX4CYWaRlm7YQ3TqoMCjRtZJsJkIayMOT= BvKwXFBvSFcfp3aVD8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON 35418043 36128033 36618005 37987905 38707856 39047805
38977760 38347671 37777640 35957602 34997759 34997987
35418043=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)