ACUS11 KWNS 232230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232229=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-240100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Areas affected...central into eastern Texas...northern Louisiana and
southern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 232229Z - 240100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form along the cold front
from southern Arkansas southwestward toward San Antonio. Large hail
is likely and localized wind damage is possible.

DISCUSSION...Relatively strong instability has developed ahead of
the cold front, owing to strong heating, steep lapse rates aloft and
dewpoints in the 60s F. Objective analysis indicates MLCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg, which will certainly support robust updrafts.
Effective deep-layer shear is averaging around 40 kt over northern
areas, with a bit weaker flow over parts of TX. However, as storms
develop, they will likely propagate rightward off the hodograph,
resulting in clusters of severe storms. Spotty reports of 2.00" hail
appear likely across the region with the strongest cells. The entire
threat area is expected to remain within a relatively narrow southwest-northeast zone, though a gradual southward propagation is
expected. As such, much of the area is being considered for a severe thunderstorm watch.

..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5OUyoqkkE8JygYMYzfqA9l2yfj6uxePXmntSfwjk5R2e22HErPfqDs9ZWcl0-52AzQFAomIrB= -omRGF1QZgvueYOmAo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29179825 29089917 29389961 29789976 30099967 30299952
30789859 31289752 31949617 33579287 33459225 33059198
32379199 31969256 29179825=20


=3D =3D =3D
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