ACUS11 KWNS 251755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251755=20
FLZ000-252030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Areas affected...Southeast FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 251755Z - 252030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible
mainly this afternoon into the early evening (3-7pm).

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum
over the shelf waters to the west of the Everglades/Keys moving east
over the region this afternoon. Visible-satellite imagery shows a
cumulus field destabilizing from near Lake Okeechobee southward,
where temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 80s with 68-70 deg F
dewpoints. Modifying the 12 UTC Miami raob for current conditions
yields around 1700 J/kg MLCAPE with minimal CINH. Although flow in
the lowest 2 km is weak (below 15 kt), westerly flow increasing from
25 kt to 40 kt in the 3-7 km layer, is resulting in a wind profile
that will support some storm organization---mainly in the form of
multicells.

Convection-allowing model guidance (12 UTC HREF and recent
time-lagged HRRR runs) show greater storm coverage beginning in the
3-5pm period. An initial threat for a stronger storm over the
greater Miami area will gradually expand as storms develop
north/northwest in the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee later this
afternoon. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-13 to -12 deg C)
will support hail potential with the stronger cells. Steep
surface-850 mb lapse rates with the more intense water-loaded cores
will also yield a risk for damaging gusts (55-70 mph) with the
stronger storms. This activity will likely diminish during the
evening as the boundary layer slowly stabilizes and/or storms move
offshore.

..Smith/Hart.. 03/25/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-96BbbnuKSvJPXK23Fupo3p7T0EzK_V4ZbLBr1fLg8jenr_FK26VN_T1iLb_5LV_jlC1sLmrz= OKDim1VAK6ajjfVyC8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON 25308043 25408058 26688114 27478119 27708093 27868036
26747994 25448009 25308025 25308043=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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