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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0285

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Mar 29 23:36:05 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 292335
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292335=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-300130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0285
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0635 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

    Areas affected...Portions of north and central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 292335Z - 300130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase in coverage over the next
    few hours. Primary concerns are large hail and severe winds gusts.
    Trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a north/south-oriented
    dryline extending across portions of north and central Texas, where
    isolated thunderstorms are evolving. These initial
    high-based/isolated storms will be capable of producing large hail
    and locally severe gusts, given steep deep-layer lapse rates and
    around 40 kt of effective shear -- characterized by a mostly
    straight hodograph. With time, deep-layer ascent accompanying the
    left exit region of an upper jet streak will overspread the dryline,
    favoring increasing thunderstorm development into this evening.
    Large hail will still be a concern, though a tendency for upscale
    growth into a cluster of storms will favor an increasing severe-wind
    risk as well. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch
    issuance.

    ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/29/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_PSDKyaruM_2nkOK12XJVwc8nPTZlvm-QSVhQ1ha9N8WSwUe5G5UdDbNbgUo5y93P5kG2HHb2= clFavGowBlPOOQOixQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 31729924 32589870 33259853 33729824 33959782 33959734
    33819673 33499644 32889652 32109704 31039810 30719877
    30679931 31019983 31269976 31729924=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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