ACUS11 KWNS 300431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300431=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-300630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0291
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...Far Southeast Kansas...Far
Northwest Arkansas...Western Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 68...

Valid 300431Z - 300630Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue for a few more hours
across eastern Oklahoma, and may spread northeastward into parts of southeastern Kansas, western Missouri and far northwestern Arkansas.
Weather watch issuance remains possible downstream from WW 68.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a developing MCS
over much of central and northern Oklahoma. The large cluster of
strong to severe storms is located near an axis of moderate
instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000
J/kg range. This cluster is being supported by large-scale ascent
associated with a shortwave trough in the southern Plains, evident
on water vapor imagery. A potential for severe wind gusts, isolated
large hail and a tornado, will likely continue with the stronger
storms within this large cluster as it moves northeastward across
eastern Oklahoma late this evening. The storms are forecast to move
into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri after midnight,
where a severe threat will be possible. The severe threat should
become more isolated later tonight, as the storms interact with
weaker instability.

..Broyles.. 03/30/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9y2Mgfl5LT_Lkv8Vn-UalVadr9NYR6e6EDGyYmCHKte6YuPG4c5LIJWVsAPHSSw0oZAD2U5ip= 70olzFrnMQhlDhpqe4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 38079492 37099604 36619665 36219703 35589713 34939693
34649672 34489637 34619552 35609425 36849327 37639282
38279288 38689343 38789390 38659428 38079492=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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