• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0308

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Mar 30 22:35:36 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 302235
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302235=20
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-310030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0308
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0535 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

    Areas affected...Southern Indiana into southwest Ohio

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 70...

    Valid 302235Z - 310030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 70 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue spreading eastward across
    southern Indiana (in Tornado Watch 70) and eventually into Southwest
    Ohio . A downstream watch will be issued by 23Z.

    DISCUSSION...A northeast/southwest-oriented QLCS is tracking
    eastward across central and southern Indiana at around 40 kt. Along
    the southern portion of the line, an organized line segment is more
    favorably oriented to around 50 kt of southwesterly deep-layer
    shear, and this activity has produced severe wind gusts up to 70
    mph. Given the organized linear mode, severe gusts upwards of 70-80
    mph will be the primary concern. However, some deeper/rotating
    updrafts embedded in the line, along with isolated/discrete cell
    development immediately ahead of the line, will be capable of
    producing hail up to 1.75 inches and a couple tornadoes.=20

    With time, these storms will continue eastward into southwest OH,
    where a continued linear mode should favor primarily severe wind
    gusts. While severe wind is the primary concern, a couple embedded
    tornadoes will also be be possible, especially given a stronger
    low-level jet and larger clockwise curved hodographs (around 200
    m2/s2 effective SRH) into southwest OH. A downstream watch will be
    issued by 23Z.

    ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8fpLXNQhNCEsVar3utFwG5W69B_sDFY662PPfd_NIYChGoNyKYL9lefFLXPoNi2e7bR6Y-s1J= eFyHqnKhDIHRk4ax8o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...

    LAT...LON 39308704 39878623 40148540 40268380 40108346 39848334
    39478339 39148367 39008404 38638703 38698733 38848736
    39308704=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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