ACUS11 KWNS 302308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302308=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-310145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...East Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 302308Z - 310145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop across parts of
east Texas early this evening. Isolated large hail, severe wind
gusts, and perhaps a tornado threat will be possible. New weather
watch issuance may eventually be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
through north-central Texas, with a very moist airmass located ahead
of the front over much of east Texas. Surface dewpoints within this
moist airmass are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. The RAP shows
strong instability, with MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg. In addition, the
latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving
into central Texas. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will
increase across east Texas, aiding convective initiation. It
appears that initiation will take place over the next hour. RAP
forecast soundings early this evening in east Texas have 0-6 km
shear of 45 to 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 8.5 C/km,
suggesting that large hail will be likely with supercell
development. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible. Supercells may also produce severe gusts, and be
accompanied by an isolated tornado threat.

..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/30/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9WscwUlXWQq5eHB33nsvPs_c9Dq542dc9sFlMU25-MJM94rQJnlJKR3okAA65l6wBEAKFGK38= 9NJ23UK_sR2GfjEpmw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 30039488 30019527 30029549 30129597 30439625 30959635
31779628 32159608 32399569 32499496 32379431 32069393
31669377 31129360 30739366 30359388 30139429 30039488=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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