ACUS11 KWNS 310103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310102=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-310300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...Far Northeast Arkansas...Western and Middle Tennessee...Western Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 72...76...

Valid 310102Z - 310300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 72, 76 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely develop this evening across
western and middle Tennessee northward into western and central
Kentucky. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed across the
region soon.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a well-developed
linear MCS from northeast Arkansas northeastward into far western
Kentucky. Ahead of the MCS, a moderately unstable airmass is
present, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range.
The MCS is located near the exit region of a 60 to 70 knot mid-level
jet, which is providing favorable large-scale ascent and strong
deep-layer shear supportive of severe storms. The latest WSR-88D VWP
at Hopkinsville, Kentucky is sampling the nose of the jet, with 0-6
km shear near 60 knots. The VWP also has strong directional shear in
the lowest 2 km AGL. This shear environment will be favorable for
supercells, embedded in the line or with isolated storms ahead of
the line. Supercells will be accompanied by a threat for large hail
and wind damage. Severe wind gusts will also be possible along the
leading edge of the faster moving line segments. The stronger parts
of the line could produce wind gusts above 70 mph. Supercells that
become particularly intense and remain discrete could have tornado
potential as well.

..Broyles.. 03/31/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!77pAI0FxM_38UAbny9TSGE44MBYXKBT6qhJR4f9gO1oGe8a8Msemz2-J0AVlJuCsnsunTYmst= 6IrNj5iLx6NO9wk-Bg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 35168730 35858608 36598537 37038517 37368526 37608573
37718669 37658744 37328812 36468950 35909021 35519033
35249022 35038991 34988921 34968826 35168730=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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