ACUS11 KWNS 310429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310429 COR
NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-310515-
Mesoscale Discussion 0318
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Areas affected...Eastern Tennessee...Far Western North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 310429Z - 310515Z
CORRECTED FOR STATE REFERENCE
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop over the next few
hours across eastern Tennessee. The threat may also affect far
western North Carolina. Wind damage will become likely as a line of
severe storms moves in from the west. A tornado threat will also be
possible with intense cells within the line. Weather watch issuance
will be needed as the line approaches from the west.
DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a well-developed
severe MCS located from southern Kentucky southwestward into western
Tennessee. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints across middle and
eastern Tennessee are in the lower 60s F, and RAP analysis shows
MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. The MCS is being supported by
a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery, which is moving
into the Tennessee Valley. In addition to the instability, the
Morristown, Tennessee WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear around 50 knots,
with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 300 m2/s2. This shear
environment will support a severe threat. Wind damage and tornadoes
will be the primary threats along the more intense parts of the
line.
..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/31/2025
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6UEjKxIXB721tZ_IeNkLYXTJnAuYtZHd5zi3wDdcpbuadyLtoYL_FkbpN1z2wltedh6LVUFTf= E5-MILZ9stWfsl0qQw$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...HUN...
LAT...LON 34958601 34938460 34968354 35238305 36108267 36508302
36588360 36578465 36288558 35868618 35608641 35408648
35258648 35098641 34958601=20
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
=3D =3D =3D
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