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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0320

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 31 06:17:39 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 310617
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310617=20
    WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-310745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0320
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0117 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

    Areas affected...far eastern Kentucky and portions of West Virginia
    into far western Virginia

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 80...

    Valid 310617Z - 310745Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 80
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe potential should gradually decrease with eastward
    extent the next few hours. Isolated strong gusts continue to be
    possible in the short term.

    DISCUSSION...The line of convection extending from southwest WV into
    eastern KY, especially the southern extent over eastern KY,
    continues to be well organized amid strong deep-layer southwesterly
    flow. Instability will weaken with time and eastward extent, and
    convection should gradually wane in intensity as storms approach the
    WV/VA border vicinity. Further south, stronger bowing/QLCS
    convection will continue to move across eastern KY toward far
    western VA/southern WV. This activity may continue to produce severe
    gusts and perhaps a QLCS tornado over the next 1-2 hours. However,
    similar to further north, downstream instability will diminish and
    stronger large-scale ascent will continue to lift northeast away
    from the region. As such, a gradual weakening trend is expected. A
    small local watch extension may be needed, but otherwise, downstream
    watch issuance appears unlikely.

    ..Leitman.. 03/31/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4XS-HJzPIIGuou7gIuuChIYXyx0AjF_5doUBgOkLDQXB5gBtszCD1bdiFqRc3jDT9xJUih2MB= MC6iStVxOYUnMt3Afg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

    LAT...LON 39188130 38998057 38478042 37728094 36628191 36608297
    36638437 37028410 38178278 39188130=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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