ACUS11 KWNS 311117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311116=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-311245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0324
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Areas affected...central/southern MS into southeast LA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83...84...

Valid 311116Z - 311245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83, 84
continues.

SUMMARY...A line of convection will continue shifting east/southeast
across central/southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana this
morning, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...A robust line of convection, with embedded bowing
elements, will continue to shift east/southeast across the MCD area
this morning. A recent gust of at least 65 mph was noted at KJAN
with the northern bowing segment. A couple of intense bowing
segments have occasionally been noted across parts of south-central
LA. This activity is expected to continue producing severe/damaging
gusts with eastward extent through the morning given favorable
downstream instability and an increasing 850 mb southwesterly
low-level jet. Regional VWP data do indicated some modestly enlarged
low-level hodographs. However, 0-1 km shear is fairly weak, around
15-25 kt amid poor low-level lapse rates. This should temper the
tornado risk, though a brief spin-up could occur given the very
moist boundary layer and at least modest low-level instability.

..Leitman.. 03/31/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8_V9bJr8w6RFX2Xz-Us9Rgtv_JCoN3DfVHwLcDfVxfgKUJ6m4i2Y4vt1Uv_JhIF97xalDD7vF= gl76ktGqDY_KW5EoiI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 32658950 32408861 31588825 30948834 30178872 29688957
29599086 29659207 29739249 29929270 30119277 30309262
30839183 31689072 32658950=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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