ACUS11 KWNS 021115
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021115=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-021315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0348
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...portions of North Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021115Z - 021315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated gusty winds and marginal hail to near 1 inch
possible this morning. Overall risk is expected to remain low and a
watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has developed along an
eastward-advancing cold front across western north Texas this
morning. Mid-60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates are
contributing to strong MLCAPE amid intense vertical shear. Capping
and modest linear forcing associated with the cold front will likely
preclude greater severe potential despite the favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space. Nevertheless, isolated
gusty winds and perhaps hail to near 1 inch diameter will be
possible. Watch issuance is not currently expected, but radar trends
will continue to be monitored through the morning.

..Leitman/Gleason.. 04/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8y6FtDPQjqDGp1PEgi2hQF74XevCBzdVMdwgk3YzBpzRbwUC3sgJln51IduwqYni_xH8BM3Ep= a_6WK25ivNflBBqsNA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 34059861 33029973 32549963 32369846 32579722 32849675
33279648 33709658 33809686 34059861=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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