439
AXNT20 KNHC 021003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Apr 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France Gale Warning: Meteo-France forecasts gale-force NW
winds from 12 UTC through 21 UTC on April 2 for the areas of
Madeira and Canarias. Rough to very rough seas will likely
accompany these winds.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 12N17W to
01N20W. The ITCZ extends from 01N20W to offshore of northern
Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
S of 05N between 12W-23W and S of 04N and W of 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge extends from the western Atlantic through
the central Gulf. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong SE
winds and moderate seas mainly W of 85W. Moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas are noted elsewhere. Platforms in the northwest
and north-central Gulf are still reporting areas of fog reducing
visibility as to as low as 1 1/2 miles.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds will increase to near-
gale on Thu west of 85W. These winds will support building rough
seas in this region through the end of the week. East of 85W,
moderate SE winds will strengthen to fresh to strong speeds Wed
into Thu, including the Florida Straits. The next front is
expected to enter the NW Gulf by Sat night and continue moving SE
while weakening on Sun. Strong winds and rough seas will prevail
in the wake of the front on Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the
area and a 1008 mb over northern Colombia is supporting strong to
near-gale trade winds off northeastern Colombia, in the Gulf of
Venezuela and off central Honduras. Moderate to fresh trade winds
are noted elsewhere. Rough seas are noted off Colombia and the
south- central Caribbean, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale NE winds and rough to very
rough seas offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela will
prevail through the weekend. Fresh to strong E to SE winds in the
Gulf of Honduras will increase to near-gale force speeds, with
rough seas beginning on Thu and continue through the weekend.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will strengthen with
building rough seas dominating the basin Thu into the weekend.
Large E swell will impact the tropical Atlantic waters and
Caribbean Passages most of the week, maintaining rough seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for Meteo-France area.

The Atlantic basin is dominated by 1033 mb high pressure centered
near 33N43W, with the subtropical ridge axis extending westward
toward central Florida. A complex low northeast of the Azores is
supporting strong N winds and rough seas north of 24N and east of
40W. Elsewhere, this pattern is supporting fresh trade winds and 8
to 10 ft seas across the tropical Atlantic south of 24N, and
gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas north of 25N and
west of 40W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build across the area.
The building high will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and
rough seas across the waters south of 25N, including through the
Atlantic Passages into the Caribbean.

$$
ERA
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