ACUS11 KWNS 021751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021751=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-021945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0355
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas...western Tennessee...Missouri Bootheel...western Kentucky...far southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 021751Z - 021945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Observational trends suggest an increasing probability of
discrete storms near the Mississippi/Ohio confluence. All severe
hazards, including strong/intense tornadoes, would be possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show deepening cumulus
west-southwest of Memphis into the Missouri Bootheel/western
Kentucky. Within continued surface heating, these trends appear
likely to continue. This region, ahead of the convective activity to
the west, would be very favorable for discrete storm development.
Should this occur, all severe hazards, including the potential for strong/intense tornadoes, would be possible. Regional VAD data shows
strong low-level shear/hodograph enlargement. With the primary
synoptic shortwave and surface low farther northwest, there remain
some uncertainties as to when and how many storms will form. Morning
observed soundings from the region did have capping inversions
evident which could at least slow initiation. Given the environment,
a tornado watch is likely this afternoon.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Yw3E65FctjMgDc2EckgMOtvzcsrJ4ibzFrUlKDKHSIAFBRveQ1GrY_rHLKC8_Y3ZSGBE7FRx= JHZuBaIUojdfDGSAZk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 35159158 36879023 37538914 37448812 36688817 35158974
34639056 34599098 34759142 35159158=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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