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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0357

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 2 19:46:23 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 021944
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021943=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-022145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0357
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0243 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

    Areas affected...Portions of central/southern Illinois and western
    Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 021943Z - 022145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in intensity and move into
    the area this afternoon posing a threat of tornadoes, hail, and
    damaging wind. There is some uncertainty on the exact timing of the
    threat, but a tornado watch is likely in the next two hours.

    DISCUSSION...With an ejecting midlevel trough and associated surface
    cyclone to the northwest of the region, the warm front has continued
    to lift northward this afternoon. As a result, filtered insolation
    and moisture advection have resulted in destabilization, with the
    latest mesoanalysis indicating 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE nosing into
    central Illinois. Given the strong low-level flow (75 kts at 2-km
    AGL per 19Z ILX sounding and recent VWPs) and shear, storms will
    pose a threat of strong tornadoes and severe winds.

    Convective initiation within the warm sector does not appear
    imminent, so storms will likely move into the area from the
    south-southwest, where storms have rapidly intensified across
    Missouri in the past hour. Convective mode will likely be messy
    with a large component of deep-layer shear aligned with the primary
    axis of convection oriented south-southwest to north-northeast.=20
    With time, there is some expectation that storms will cluster and
    grow upscale resulting in an increasing severe wind threat.=20

    Given the threat of significant severe weather (all hazards) during
    the late afternoon and evening hours, a tornado watch is likely in
    the next two hours.

    ..Jirak/Guyer.. 04/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Ib-Vy2I4XXYmEkOqddGKfVsb3YbnbdiWaojLNglfD8xACJtorKF5llfEokoS69iIO2empneM= AWmlH6HfFH7x_Lim88$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39919026 40678956 40808827 40718694 40148655 39098682
    38638716 38218766 37978795 37958853 38298920 38508983
    39919026=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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