AWUS01 KWNH 291814
FFGMPD
LAZ000-292111-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1024
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Areas affected...southern Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291811Z - 292111Z

Summary...Brief/isolated flash flooding is possible across
southern Louisiana through 4p CDT/21Z.

Discussion...Over the last hour or so, a mesoscale convective
complex near Baton Rouge has increased in intensity while
migrating slowly southward. Additional cells were developing from
this complex southwestward toward Lake Charles, Lafayette, and
along I-10. These cells were migrating toward an abundantly
moist/unstable pre-convective airmass (2.3+ inch PW values, 3500
J/kg SBCAPE), supporting strong updrafts and efficient rainfall
rates within the most persistent activity. Despite southward
motions, areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates have been estimated per
MRMS near the Baton Rouge area. These rates may be enough to
support an isolated flash flood risk especially near urban/flash
flood prone areas across southern Louisiana.

Models/observations are all suggestive of a continued, yet slow
southward progression of the ongoing activity toward the Gulf
Coast through 4p CDT/21Z. Some of the heavier rain rates may
impact western portions of New Orleans Metro during that
timeframe. Flash flooding could occur with ongoing activity, but
should be isolated and focused on urban/sensitive areas. Areas of
1-2 inch/hr rain rates should continue, with higher rates/rainfall
totals possible near any localized areas of training/cell mergers.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Zvkj-bUelgq3vwpm450SXtdlVxH7rveg9xI80KKeO097j4G-jNR2S31u7uSgiC3_RUe= ksU96Cba7uhXLuKarbBdUbE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30489171 30419035 29918921 29318911 29059006=20
29149166 29609308 30209320=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291829
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-300028-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1025
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Areas affected...New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 291828Z - 300028Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential should expand/increase
though 00Z/6p MDT this afternoon.

Discussion...Satellite and radar depict isolated thunderstorm
development primarily along favored ridgelines/high terrain from southern/southwestern through north-central New Mexico. The
storms have formed due to abundant surface heating beneath a
pronounced mid-level moisture plume across western and central
parts of the state. Flow aloft (strongest over the western parts
of the state) were supporting slow northeastward storm motions
with developing activity, although localized backbuilding was
already noted across south-central and southwestern New Mexico.=20
Where the backbuilding has been most pronounced (east of
Alamogordo), rain rates approaching 2 inches/hr have been
estimated per MRMS.

Given appreciable moisture values, weak mid-level disturbances,
and continued surface heating, conditions favor an expansion of
convective coverage through the afternoon and early evening hours
across the discussion area. Any downpours near existing burn
scars could promote a quickly evolving and locally significant
flash flood threat. Areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates are likely to
expand in tandem with increasing convective coverage, and the
highest rain rates are likely across the southeastern 1/2 of the
state where steering flow aloft is the weakest and tropospheric
moisture content highest.

Wind profiles across northeastern/east-central New Mexico favor
eventual growth into slow-moving clusters of storms that may
prompt a slightly higher concentration of flash flood instances
over time.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_uJyp8RiiukATBXTgTjKeysUvouAANFSkFCZeONY0yCsSzC-eqw4XmMWyhlzKHLM50d_= Ur0SXdxLzu-Fl0M9yM_9x70$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36700397 34410338 32000454 31840694 31790910=20
33840879 36660668=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 292004
FFGMPD
FLZ000-300203-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1026
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292003Z - 300203Z

Summary...Isolated/urban flash flooding is possible through the
afternoon and early evening.

Discussion...Recent satellite/lightning imagery depicts rapid
development of deep convection along a sea breeze boundary just
west of Miami (near Kendall), with additional, scattered activity
located over the Everglades. The cells were forming in an
environment characterized by strong instability (2000+ J/kg
MLCAPE) and plenteous moisture content (1.8+ inch PW values).=20
These environmental parameters - combined with weak/negligible
tropospheric flow for steering) was promoting ongoing development.
The cell near Kendall was already producing estimated 1-2 inch/hr
rain rates, which isn't a surprise given its slow movement amid
abundant moisture/instability.

Models/CAMs suggest that ongoing development will continue to
expand in coverage an intensity given continued
heating/destabilization along the sea breeze, which was located
just inland along populated areas of southeastern Florida.=20
Additional areas of 1+ inch/hr rain rates are expected, which
could result in flash flooding in urban and low-lying areas. Much
of the flash flood risk should be diurnally driven, with weakening
expected from both 1) loss of surface heating and 2) stabilization
from scattered to widespread convective overturning across the
discussion area.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4P9wSE9JUPm8UY_UWf3nZX8jBI-M5PpiYTrkvqv0xeYUGZUKYiGm0MsV_E2dHifisuAy= pOEoph6st-iCS1W817vzuOA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27628039 27268000 27177995 26617995 25958006=20
25228030 24968060 25218080 25858069 27208048=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 292248
FFGMPD
KSZ000-COZ000-300246-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1027
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Areas affected...central/eastern Colorado, far western Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292246Z - 300246Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorm activity was backbuilding along
the I-25 corridor between Colorado Springs and Pueblo. A couple
instances of flash flooding are possible through 02Z/8p MDT.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery has depicted backbuilding
convection along a relatively focused axis extending from I-25
between Colorado Springs and Pueblo eastward to near State Highway
71. The storms are forming in a weak low-level-shear environment,
with 15-25F surface dewpoint depressions supporting mostly
outflow-dominant storms. Despite the tendency for outflow
dominance, upstream mid-level flow was aiding in maintaining

7C/km mid-level lapse rates, and an upstream mid-level

disturbance (evident via water vapor) was providing ascent aloft
while moving toward the discussion area. PW values near 1 inch
and the backbuilding character of convection was supporting
occasional rain rates exceeding 1 inch/hr in spots that were
beginning to exceed FFG thresholds on an isolated basis.

The ongoing scenario should support a localized flash flood threat
(tied to backbuilding convection) for a few hours this afternoon.=20 Models/CAMs suggest that ongoing activity will eventually pick up
more of an eastward component of motion while moving toward
eastern Colorado, supporting isolated flash flood potential
downstream of ongoing storms especially where mergers/training can
occur. The downstream airmass is slightly more favorable for
heavy rainfall given higher PW values (1.5 inch near the KS/CO
border). Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible in
this regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-8aATgiuNWW-kCAHA4QdqTfVqAfCTbSPQpq_79RUQQx0luKXMfDDZrjx0rdfd58BSlqy= lAwOt8me5lHRWAz4PstURbM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39740392 38690193 37090185 37740370 38140532=20
39520558=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300029
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-300328-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1028
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Areas affected...southern New Mexico, far southeastern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300028Z - 300328Z

Summary...Low-end/isolated flash flood potential continues for a
few more hours.

Discussion...Deep convection has materialized over the course of
the afternoon and produced isolated spots of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain
rates at times. Short-term trends indicate widespread convective
overturning that has stabilized the low-level airmass in most
areas. Despite stabilization, several areas of thunderstorms
continue across south-central New Mexico (near the Sacramento
Mountains) and along far northern Mexico (potentially drifting
northward toward the AZ/NM international border area over the next
1-2 hours). The pre-convective airmass supporting convection
continues to be moist and unstable, with 1-1.4 inch PW values and
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE to support deep convection and isolated flash
flood potential.

With time, low-levels are expected to further stabilize with loss
of surface heating. The flash flood threat (already isolated)
should also progressively lower with time as well. Most of the
threat should wane after 03Z or so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8PncgyjeCZUkzyhRcMLqq7-naG5LnudJFl3sCWD6hhkJ_PVIguIUh5DdivP0NTdAwjaH= P58-HRYaMY-l4Xjzg_AVFlg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34880638 34060439 32730448 31990655 31780811=20
31400826 31281094 32101067 32940896 34200780=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300033
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-300328-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1028
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
832 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Areas affected...southern New Mexico, far southeastern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300028Z - 300328Z

Summary...Low-end/isolated flash flood potential continues for a
few more hours.

Discussion...Deep convection has materialized over the course of
the afternoon and produced isolated spots of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain
rates at times. Short-term trends indicate widespread convective
overturning that has stabilized the low-level airmass in most
areas. Despite stabilization, several areas of thunderstorms
continue across south-central New Mexico (near the Sacramento
Mountains) and along far northern Mexico (potentially drifting
northward toward the AZ/NM international border area over the next
1-2 hours). The pre-convective airmass supporting convection
continues to be moist and unstable, with 1-1.4 inch PW values and
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE to support deep convection and isolated flash
flood potential. This potential may maximize in/near burn scar
areas, where just a quick 0.5 inch of rainfall could cause
excessive runoff.

With time, low-levels are expected to further stabilize with loss
of surface heating. The flash flood threat (already isolated)
should also progressively lower with time as well. Most of the
threat should wane after 03Z or so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4_J6q96rSBzK4NCv0FiHpYdhTqeBOL71bsn0rWdiHe79Gmk8bi0IHU_DXLYFoudg5Y14= ZT86U9EPtmodkfozYDTzfGQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34880638 34060439 32730448 31990655 31780811=20
31400826 31281094 32101067 32940896 34200780=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300047
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-300545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1029
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
846 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Areas affected...eastern New Mexico, west Texas, Texas South
Plains/Panhandle, Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300045Z - 300545Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible as
convection emanates eastward from the southern High Plains this
evening.

Discussion...Maturing convection over New Mexico has gradually
organized into clusters and linear segments while approaching the
NM/TX border region and portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle. The
storms were moving eastward toward a progressively more moist
airmass (1.6 inch PW values) and sufficient instability (1500 J/kg
SBCAPE) to sustain convection for at least 2-4 more hours.=20
Kinematic fields feature relatively weak steering flow aloft,
allowing for weak easterly/southeasterly cell movement driven
partially by local convective organization/evolution. Areas of 1
inch/hr rain rates are already estimated per MRMS, and the overall
radar presentation seems to suggest that mergers will gradually
become more frequent, increasing rain rates locally.

As cells move eastward deeper into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles
and Texas South Plains, they will migrate over regions of the
country that have FFG thresholds in the 2-3 inch/hr range (locally
lower). Furthermore, soil moisture profiles are a bit on the dry
side, suggestive of soils that can handle some of the impending
rainfall. The overall scenario suggests potential for isolated
flash flooding to occur especially in any sensitive/low-lying
spots. The risk may be locally maximized where mergers can
prolong heavy rainfall and boost local rain rates.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4bJNTo6H477kWvtLG3ItNZHX_EQn63wiYDKLhK3x4p9w_WBNlKwn6RQ9qZmOj_AWswrF= YRZj9jwT2HlIQrqYwtEk2DY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37050121 36400081 34510129 31910124 31690224=20
32120330 32890368 33940389 34670445 35820470=20
36400386 36890223=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300502
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-300930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1030
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
100 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Areas affected...Southeast NM...Western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300500Z - 300930Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to pose a
threat for some additional areas of flash flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows
cold-topped convection continuing to evolve across portions of
southeast NM and western TX. In fact, the trends have shown an
uptick in convective organization with cooling cloud tops over
especially southeast NM where radar confirms a couple of
semi-linear bands of very heavy showers and thunderstorms.

MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg remain in place which coupled
with subtle mid-level vort energy ejecting east out into the
southern High Plains is helping to maintain the ongoing convective
activity. However, cooling boundary layer temperatures and
convective overturning continue to put pressure on the instability
environment, and there should be a gradual weakening of the
overall convective footprint by later in the night.

PWs of 1.5 to 1.6+ inches are in place which is helping to yield
heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger
storms. These heavier rainfall rates coupled with locally slow
cell-motions and pockets of cell-training may foster some
additional isolated rainfall totals of 2 to 4+ inches. This is
supported by the 00Z HREF guidance.

These additional rains will support a threat for additional areas
of flash flooding going through the overnight hours. However, by
later tonight the convection should weaken sufficiently to allow
for the flash flooding threat to diminish.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9KpuwMqdwZr74y4RUcRsZJXFAyv7EcZCQwACObI4GNhuQ_dKZaUgAh8lt2iam00TmyI9= GKCInVBnmdrLysOEpbb4zUs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34740141 34320066 33310052 32230157 31260328=20
30810485 31110595 31830638 32590601 33330477=20
33990379 34640259=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301305
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-301715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1031
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
904 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Areas affected...eastern TX into southwestern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 301303Z - 301715Z

SUMMARY...Heavy to extreme rain rates over 3 in/hr are expected to
occur within localized pockets over portions of eastern TX and
southwestern LA over the next few hours. Areas of flash flooding
are likely to continue through 17Z.

DISCUSSION...1245Z radar imagery over the lower Sabine River
Valley showed a small cluster of thunderstorms west and northwest
of LCH with 3 Wunderground observation stations reporting 3+
inches of rain in an hour two stations showing 5 inches in an hour
through 12Z. Thunderstorm coverage was expanding NNW from
southwestern LA into portions of eastern TX along an elevated
(925-850 mb) convergence axis with low level flow intersecting the
boundary from the west. Some of the "strongest" low level flow was
located just south of the DFW Metroplex and over southwestern LA
with about 10-15 kt oriented nearly perpendicular to the elevated
convergence axis with mean layer winds directing cells slowly
toward the southeast. SPC mesoanalysis data from 12Z showed MUCAPE
values of 500-1500 J/kg coincident with PWATs of 2.1 to 2.3+
inches.

Short term forecasts from the RAP show the low level flow
maintaining over the next few hours but with gradual weakening
through 17Z which may act to disrupt organization late this
morning. However, the environment will remain supportive of highly
efficient rainfall production until then with pockets of extreme
rain rates possible (3+ in/hr) and localized storm totals in
excess of 5 inches through 17Z. Areas of flash flooding will be
likely and trends will be monitored for additional MPDs as needed
later this morning.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9LLqDy_VP4nvEvj6Oq1-i2fSu0y3E9K-Ehzuz9U53l86YISsyt50n__zjcrr8EX39JmT= SJbnJiW7TMNTNv_Y1ajrm7o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33749671 33139547 31009322 30339289 29939296=20
29649337 29589393 29769442 30549520 31689627=20
32679726 33539748=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301644
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-302215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1032
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1243 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Areas affected...central SD into east-central NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301640Z - 302215Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving cores of heavy rainfall are expected from
central SD into east-central NE over the next 3-6 hours. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches can be expected at times, which may
produce a couple of areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery from GOES East showed a complex
pattern across the central U.S. with a number of mid-level
vorticity maxima extending from the Dakotas into NE. Upstream, a
longwave trough axis was noted across WY to the UT/CO border,
advancing east with small scale vorticity maxima embedded within
the southwest flow out ahead across the High Plains. Low to
mid-level analyses showed a nearly stationary low over
west-central SD, associated with a slow moving cyclonic swirl of
heavy rain centered over Haakon County with MRMS-derived rainfall
rates of 1 to 2+ in/hr ending 14 and 15Z, though recent rates have
lowered to about 1 in/hr. A trough axis extended SSE from the low
into central NE with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the NE Sandhills into portions of east-central NE.
Satellite-derived precipitable water imagery indicated that a
tongue of higher moisture extended northward through the central
Plains into central SD, ahead of the quasi-stationary low. OSPO
LPW imagery showed low level components of this moisture plume
from the southern Plains and mid to upper level components from
the Southwest, including remnant moisture from former T.S.
Juliette in the eastern Pacific. The remnant tropical moisture
could be a factor in enhancing rainfall efficiency this afternoon.

As the longwave trough axis passes across the central Rockies this
afternoon, downstream diffluence will increase over NE and
southern SD, helping to increase ascent. While the low over SD is
not expected to move through 22Z, the southern extension of the
trough into NE should swing east and possibly develop with a
secondary low center. Mesoscale circulations within this pattern
are expected to support slow moving cores of heavy rain.

One negating factor is the presence of weak instability with 16Z
SPC mesoanalysis data showing only 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE over parts
of SD and western NE and less than 500 J/kg over eastern SD/NE.
Widespread cloud cover may limit the development of higher
instability over central to eastern SD/NE later this afternoon,
capping rainfall intensity. However, the favorable moisture axis
and slow movement of rainfall may still allow for localized
pockets of 1-2 in/hr rates and possible flash flooding over the
next 3-5 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9jwKvyGamGIGqHxeg9PdUqiMnAtKNUANn2FMc-ZvOXli28xbL41LCzb9IHB5l7eNkX6G= WVu_d_1Hp8nMZ03GtAqMSts$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD...GID...LBF...OAX...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 45730200 45630108 44879969 43389808 41789709=20
41009706 40149768 39939835 40019874 40279901=20
40509918 40679930 41209947 41509951 41679949=20
41799940 41799920 41739899 41679883 41579861=20
41709841 41729829 41849810 42229811 42369826=20
42559871 42699978 42950061 43430136 43590166=20
44300289 45170313 45490274=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301728
FFGMPD
TXZ000-302100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1033
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
128 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Areas affected...eastern TX into fa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 301726Z - 302100Z

SUMMARY...Locally high rain rates will likely continue for at
least another 1-2 hours, possibly extending through 21Z (4 PM CDT)
for portions of eastern TX. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will
be most likely, though the potential for higher hourly totals in
excess of 2 to 3 inches will remain a concern.

DISCUSSION...Localized heavy rain continued over eastern TX as of
17Z with one cluster over the Piney Woods region and a second a
little east of Dallas. Convergence along an elevated boundary,
located in the 925-850 mb layer, was focusing slow moving
thunderstorms with MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 2-3 inches
(Piney Woods) and 1-2 inches (east of Dallas).

Near Dallas, a 925-850 mb low has formed with slow forecast
movement toward the east, along with localized low level
convergence and thunderstorms likely to continue ahead of the low
track. Meanwhile, RAP forecasts have been consistent with
near-dissipation of the low level convergence axis that extended
southeastward from near Dallas into far southwestern LA within the
next 2-3 hours which should allow for a disruption to the ongoing
areas of heavy rain over the Piney Woods region..

However, visible satellite imagery showed growing cumulus along
the upper TX coast into Montgomery and Liberty counties. Here,
MLCAPE was estimated to be 1000-2000 J/kg along with 2.1 to 2.4
inches of precipitable water. A few slow moving thunderstorms are
likely to develop over the next couple of hours with slow movement
given weak deeper layer mean flow over central TX to the upper TX
coast.

While flash flooding is considered likely in the short term for
locations farther north, the flash flood threat related to
expected thunderstorms over the TX Coastal Plain is less certain
and may remain highly isolated. For these southern areas, the
greatest flash flood threat will likely setup where overlap occurs
with nearby urban areas, possibly including the Houston metro.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-H840MKsCSJsq8tXAMNnMy9Y2m50mafY4M9FLn4ANn9GM2yTsayuFXuNG-K0JBZY1XL9= ConEDibHgOKbm47-XpgRldg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...OUN...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33689635 33419524 32579447 31529388 30529376=20
30109384 29459420 29129487 28789578 29109599=20
29719611 30839614 31679632 32259668 32699715=20
33439715=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301806
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-310005-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1034
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
205 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Areas affected...southeastern MM into far western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301805Z - 310005Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over
southeastern MM into far western TX over the next few hours. Slow
movement and brief backbuilding/training will pose a flash flood
threat from 1-2 in/hr rain rates through 00Z (7 PM CDT).

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery at 1745Z showed building
cumulus over the Sacramento Mountains with mostly clear skies
surrounding much of NM into western TX. Moisture profiles are a
bit higher for southeastern NM into western TX compared to
yesterday and the 12Z soundings from ELP and MAF showed PW values
near the 95th percentile for the end of August. The region resided
on the northern/northwestern edge of a mid to upper-level ridge
centered over northern Mexico into TX, with 0-6 km AGL layer winds
only about 5 kt (slightly weaker into the Big Bend region of TX),
which will result in slow storm motions.

Continued heating is expected to allow MLCAPE values to rise into
the 500-1500 J/kg range by 21Z across southeastern NM and
southward into western TX. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop within the areas of higher terrain first, and then advance
eastward into southern portions of the southern High Plains where
surface dewpoints ranged from the lower to upper 60s. At the
surface, winds had an easterly component on the cool side of a
stationary front which draped westward and then northward through
far western TX which should add an upslope component to the setup.
A few areas of flash flooding from 1-2 inches of rain in an hour
or less will be possible from portions of southeastern NM into the
Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of TX through 00Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-yoEGOpjSGKau48O81mHtQRWZ16Pl82ytWBn1UT0fBvWVMhyQgvh1dGejdULdaxz59LF= UQG_Mldsm5Ni4YXuf1h05hg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34850481 34210342 33390287 31750284 30050267=20
29100287 29010374 29480473 30520547 31210655=20
32070690 34390642=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 310049
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-310643-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1035
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
848 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Areas affected...a large part of west Texas, portions of eastern
New Mexico, and the Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310043Z - 310643Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential exists, although the
extent of this threat will depend on convective coverage and
evolution through 06Z/1a CDT.

Discussion...Isolated to scattered convection continues across the
discussion area this evening. The greatest concentration of
storms exists over southwest Texas (near/southwest of Fort
Stockton), where slow-moving storms have evolved into a linear
structure/small complex. Additional storms were located near
Roswell, north of Lubbock, and in the northeastern Texas Panhandle
near Canadian and Perryton. The cells were in a favorable
environment for flash flooding, with 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE persisting
despite a loss of daytime heating. PW values of 1.5 inch (highest
across eastern portions of the discussion) were also favoring
heavy rain, while weak steering flow aloft (generally less than 10
knots) was fostering slow storm motions and local rain rates
exceeding 1 inch/hr at times. A few of these cells were
persisting in sensitive terrain (across southwest Texas), while
others were falling over areas of the Texas South Plains that
received 2-5 inch rainfall totals last night and have current FFG
thresholds in the 1-1.5 inch/hr range). Ground conditions are
somewhat more susceptible to runoff compared to yesterday.

The overall flash flood threat this evening will depend on the
coverage of convection over the next 6 hours. Some uptick of
coverage has been noted over the past hour areawide, although
sources of forcing for ascent are not obvious per mesoanalyses and
satellite imagery. Nevertheless, CAMs remain persistent on at
least isolated coverage of storms, and an isolated flash flood
risk seems apparent.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9sGj2Jymt3GSqw6dfBiYSgSss8COU6QxHw0xD4XYUToQInKa7_WrjnGGPFyzium1mZZ8= 1iDSHj2vbFGtoyGyi7lRvHg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...EWX...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36600140 36519997 34830014 31890104 30660056=20
30010209 29140332 29590428 30090449 31090422=20
31970503 32630568 35250531 36480441=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 310803
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-311230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1036
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Areas affected...Eastern NM...Far Western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310800Z - 311230Z

SUMMARY...Additional broken clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms going through the early morning hours may continue
to pose an isolated threat for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery along with
radar shows a few broken clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms continuing to settle gradually down to the south
across mainly the open plains of eastern NM and a small part of
western TX.

The convection is still be driven by a couple of smaller scale
corridors of favorable moisture convergence along with some
lingering instability. The latest MUCAPE values across eastern NM
are still as high as 1000 J/kg in spots. This coupled with some
modest right-entrance region upper-level jet support may tend to
sustain these convective clusters at least going into the early
morning hours.

Rainfall rates may reach as high as 1.5 inches/hour with the
stronger storms, and with relatively slow cell-motions, there may
be a few localized rainfall amounts reaching upwards of 2 to 3
inches. This may support an isolated threat for some additional
flash flooding. However, this threat should diminish early this
morning as the remaining instability continues to wane.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!84GGkr52-rZCCmaNbsroIxBdsH8yuGaSJHrzhwiF5I31zs1L1hUWUxbModLsTgLlukcW= fey-dFtudbowEU-qxIOG7UA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35060355 34710303 34010270 33000265 32230307=20
31980407 32250505 32880536 33990527 34630479=20
34950428=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 310942
FFGMPD
TXZ000-311540-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1037
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
540 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Eastern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310940Z - 311540Z

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in shower and some thunderstorm
activity is expected over the next few hours. High rainfall rates
and concerns for areas of cell-training will pose a threat for
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding this morning.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery early this morning is
showing a gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm activity
across portions of central and eastern TX. The convection which is
notably elevated in nature to the north of a stationary front is
being facilitated by a gradual increase in warm air advection
along with an uptick in low-level moisture convergence. MUCAPE
values are on the order of about 500 to 1000 J/kg.

Some additional expansion of convection is expected going through
the morning hours as some weakly divergent flow aloft along with
modestly convergent low-level flow in the 925/850 mb layer
interacts with the available pool of instability. The environment
is very moist with PWs of 2.0 to 2.2 inches and this should
support convection with high rainfall rates capable of reaching
1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour.

Rather slow cell-motions given the weak mean layer steering flow
coupled with the linear nature of some of the elevated convection
will potentially result in some rather heavy rainfall totals at
least locally this morning. Areas where any cell-training occurs
may see as much as 3 to 5 inches of rain given the deep moist
environment, and these rains will be enough to result in concerns
for isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8zTpTjFBN7L4mjThMsnoIdB_NIlWt1QuvRRgKUq6tlJYEOON3rhigTQvGyA1ke4t8Ef5= e4CRMaYrrbKkvYnb3YUHZeU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32279631 32229530 31949430 31559393 31059404=20
30759486 30679595 30709679 30779781 31099921=20
31599929 31969851 32249729=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 311647
FFGMPD
TXZ000-312100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1038
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1246 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Areas affected...southeastern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311645Z - 312100Z

SUMMARY...Isolated, mostly urban, flash flooding will be possible
across portions of southeastern TX over the next 3-4 hours with
hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms were
beginning to form over the southeastern TX Coastal Plain as of
1620Z, in advance of a small, forward propagating MCS located in
the College Station/Huntsville vicinity of southeastern/eastern
TX. An MCV was apparent near I-45, tracking toward the ESE into an
instability minimum estimated over east TX. Therefore, there is no
significant concern of flash flooding for locations near the
Sabine River which has received heavy rain yesterday. However, the
strongest convection was located along the southern flank of the
MCS in the form of a forward propagating linear segment, advancing
toward the south at roughly 20 kt, into a region containing
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 2.3 to 2.5 inch PWATs via 16Z SPC
mesoanalysis data.

The unstable environment and mesoscale boundary interactions
should contribute to at least isolated additional convective
development between the Gulf Coast and southward advancing line of thunderstorms from the MCS over the next few hours. Deeper layer
mean winds were quite weak from roughly I-10 and southward, at ~5
kt, which will contribute to slow cell motions in advance of the
propagating MCS. There will be an isolated flash flood concern
where slow moving cells are overtaken by the gradually weakening,
but still notable, propagating line of thunderstorms where 1 to 3
inches of rain in an hour will be possible. Overlap of these
higher rates with urban locations, including the Houston metro,
may lead to isolated flash flooding through 21Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7PDV2hPP86BUOtrG4Iw8GzA-qLFND4vfN_37s-6oCiNocSyHEHA2oxoIJBTa09UX6zXw= _LGiOTRniZimIUzDsUDydUg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30739468 29749411 29069466 28649568 28799648=20
29519697 30129681 30649580=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 311813
FFGMPD
TXZ000-010012-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1039
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and south Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 311812Z - 010012Z

Summary...Areas of heavy downpours should become more numerous
while developing southward toward the I-10 corridor and Rio Grande
Valley through the afternoon. 1-3 inch/hr rain rates may cause a
few instances of flash flooding through 00Z/7pm CDT.

Discussion...Per 18Z radar mosaic imagery, scattered showers and
thunderstorms were ongoing and focused along a couple of axes - 1)
along a weak stationary surface front extending from near Fort
Stockton eastward to near Llano that intersects with 2) an outflow
boundary from Llano southeastward to near Houston. The cells
along these boundaries were forming due to abundant surface
heating and convergence. The cells were also in an abundantly
moist (1.8+ PW) and unstable (1000+ J/kg) environment, supporting
robust updrafts and efficient rainfall rates. Recent MRMS imagery
estimated spots of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates near Brady and San Saba
(east of San Angelo), and a couple spots of FFG exceedence have
already been noted in that area. These trends aren't a particular
surprise given the moisture profiles and weak steering flow aloft,
favoring slow storm motions.

Both models and observations depict a gradual increase in coverage
of storms through the afternoon and early evening. The increase
in convective coverage should promote eventual clusters of storms
that slowly propagate southward - especially across central Texas
and vicinity. Rain rates exceeding 1 inch/hr should become
common, and localized spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates should
materialize while locally exceeding areal FFG thresholds.

Given the aforementioned scenario, a few instances of flash
flooding are expected - especially as storms migrate through the
Hill Country and urbanized areas near Austin and San Antonio.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_uSGoX9_KCWvAtbQO0ebifGTpb-DfUyJGf9YKQ53XGuoCDXKVahQfFMWT1R8tCgrnOek= gR9xUCgsjFp_FRuCRZKwpDk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32319910 31699771 30499665 29409672 28869822=20
28930060 29820170 29750330 30040379 30830342=20
31510192=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 311817
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-010015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1040
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Areas affected...far western TX into central to southwestern NM
and southeastern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 311815Z - 010015Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will pose an isolated to scattered flash
flood threat across portions of far western TX into central to
southwestern NM and southeastern AZ through 00Z. Storms should be
disorganized in nature, but some slow movement and brief training
will carry a threat for 1-2 in/hr rain rates.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery at 18Z showed a
gradual uptick in the coverage of thunderstorms, tied to the
diurnal cycle, over the southwestern quadrant of NM. Mostly clear
skies and anomalous moisture (12Z EPZ sounding with a PW of 1.3
inches, just above the 90th percentile for the end of August) was
contributing to a bubble of higher instability from near El Paso
into southwestern NM with 500 to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE shown on the
18Z SPC mesoanalysis page. Moisture values were closer to average
for northern NM and into western AZ.

A 700-500 mb ridge was centered over the AZ/NM border with
easterly low level flow located from far western TX into southern
NM and this pattern will maintain through the late evening. A
small region of weak deeper layer mean winds was located over
south-central TX with (<10 kt 0-6 km) with 10-15 kt located
elsewhere. Continued heating and moisture advection into
southeastern AZ should allow for an expansion of instability with
500-1500 J/kg becoming widespread across southwestern NM into
southeastern AZ by 21-00Z. Low level easterly winds should cause
an increase in low level moisture and instability into
southeastern AZ by late this afternoon with thunderstorms either
moving into or developing over southeastern AZ. Some thunderstorms
will carry the potential for brief training along with slow
movement, supportive of 1-2 in/hr rain rates. At least an isolated
threat of flash flooding may continue beyond 00Z within lingering
instability but the flash flood threat is expected to begin to
wane after sunset.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4FB4A-G_uJXn_4vF618PbD-HzSbqiloOX0B5-1YanIYCJp0Vu6swWV2DPzPbuT7xm07v= EDpG6RBn0U2e2ROgtoOmr3g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34840748 34660549 33920502 32410525 31410603=20
31320750 31030917 31341101 33500982 34340905=20
34670834=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 010007
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-010430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1041
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
806 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Areas affected...portions of south and west Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010006Z - 010430Z

Summary...Flash flood potential should linger for a few more hours
- especially where instability continues to support new,
slow-moving convection.

Discussion...Earlier convection across central Texas and the Hill
Country has evolved into a slow-moving complex currently near the
San Antonio Metro area. Enough downstream instability exists for
cells to continue to produce areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates.=20
These cells will continue to move southward over the next couple
hours while producing locally heavy rainfall over urbanized areas.
Excessive runoff/flash flood potential remains a distinct
possibility with this activity through 02Z/9p CDT.

Upstream, a large area of relatively stable air as developed
across the Hill Country due to prior convection. A few areas
farther west (from near Midland southward to the Big Bend area)
have still yet to stabilize, however, and deep, slow-moving
convection continues to exhibit an uptick per radar mosaic and
satellite imagery. Areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates remain likely
beneath the stronger and more persistent convection, and these
rates should threaten local FFG thresholds that are as low as
1-1.5 inch/hr. Isolated flash flood potential continues -
especially in low-lying/sensitive areas.

Eventually, storms should exhibit a slow weakening trend with loss
of surface heating, although weak/subtle mid-level waves should
provide enough ascent for locally heavy rainfall to persist
perhaps through 05Z/midnight CDT. where convective overturning has
not led to low-level stabilization.

Flash flooding remains possible across the area through 04-05Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_GLJXiunUX-ITyF353IcS69a7KavcWCvu-jriG0IDE6rllJBXybg_DSjV0ixnLnC9wRI= xSZOHmUvgdOQVuJaUm7HRFc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32080276 31760178 30830060 30029904 29749730=20
28869750 28439976 28820068 29670205 29590288=20
29880397 30980453 31840402=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 010228
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-010630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1042
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1027 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Areas affected...Far Southern OK...North-Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010227Z - 010630Z

SUMMARY...Additional slow-moving and locally training areas of
heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through
midnight across portions of southern OK and north-central TX,
including portions of the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area.
Urban flash flooding in particular will continue to be a concern
in the near-term.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows slow-moving clusters
of heavy showers and thunderstorms across portions of far southern
OK and north-central TX, including the Dallas-Fort Worth
metropolitan area where more recently there has been some
cell-training noted along with reports of flash flooding.

The convection is largely being driven by proximity of a weak area
of low pressure and a surface trough which is helping to focus
small scale areas of favorable low-level moisture convergence
within a moderately unstable airmass characterized by MLCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg. PWs are generally on the order of
1.75 to 2 inches, which coupled with the instability is helping to
drive rainfall rates of up to 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger
storms.

Some of the 18Z HREF and recent HRRR guidance suggests some
localized persistence of the convective threat going through
midnight, with locally an additional 3 to 4 inches of rain
possible in close proximity to this weak area of low pressure
which is nearly stationary.

As a result, additional areas of flash flooding will be possible
over the next few hours, and especially for the urban corridors
around the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6ERzaNTAHLFG5BlVXLZDSF835s0mhsyLYw_r0JLHuGzhacm85Jt-ayEMJqOmPp8fXKqR= xpfumN8ed_QfgVnEXw2HyXc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34479577 34029533 33039544 32279617 32219710=20
32629778 33609801 34259755 34339663=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 010654
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-011245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1043
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EDT Mon Sep 01 2025

Areas affected...Eastern NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010652Z - 011245Z

SUMMARY...A couple of slow-moving and locally training bands of
heavy showers are expected over eastern NE going through dawn.
Some areas of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E WV suite shows a somewhat elongated
mid-level trough axis over the central Plains, with a couple of
embedded compact vort centers. One such vort center is nearly
stationary over eastern NE and has been fostering an uptick in
heavy shower activity over the last 1 to 2 hours.

The cloud tops with this convection are relatively warm/shallow
and suggestive of a warm rain environment that will be conducive
for more efficient rainfall processes for elevated rainfall rates.

On a small scale, there is a favorable corridor moisture
convergence wrapping up around the eastern flank of the vort
center, with an environment that is only modestly unstable. In
fact, the MUCAPE values are only about 500 J/kg.

Regardless, there is sufficient mid-level forcing/ascent working
in tandem with the low-level south to southeast flow and
instability for the convection to initiate and locally expand in
coverage. Some additional nocturnal contraction/tightening of the
low to mid-level circulation is expected over the next few hours
and this may help to further concentrate these smaller scale bands
of shallow-topped convection.

The rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour
given the efficient environment, and with slow cell-motions and
cell-training concerns, some rainfall totals going through dawn
may reach as high as 3 to 4+ inches. The HRRR guidance is trending
gradually wetter across eastern NE, and the radar and satellite
trends would tend to favor these locally heavier totals
materializing.

Some areas of flash flooding will be possible across eastern NE
given these rains. However, the antecedent conditions are quite
dry, so the overall flash flooding threat should tend to be
isolated and confined to where any cell-training occurs.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4V3pimRcGExDSSqfIuNmbuBbB6uIO1yFUN-onu0tuzdUWBJIv9PJHIO0YC7mOsGalnIt= HAY6XlJObvvBCBvKEixxMwE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 42519678 42329640 41989608 41059604 40219662=20
40029759 40379782 40979744 41449734 41859727=20
42349727=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032026
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-040200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1044
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
426 PM EDT Wed Sep 03 2025

Areas affected...much of northern AZ into southern NV and
southwest UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032025Z - 040200Z

Summary...Sub-hourly (15-30 min) rainfall of 1"+ with short-term
totals of 1.5-2.5" may result in localized/isolated instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...Complex upper-level pattern (slow moving
trough/closed low to the west with poleward advancement of
Hurricane Lorena to the south resulting in enhanced upper-level
diffluence in left-exit region of sub-tropical jet streak)
combined with anomalous tropospheric moisture content (at or near
90th percetile) is resulting in a favorable environment for heavy
rainfall across the greater AZ/NV/NM border region. Convection is
initiating and proliferating in the vicinity of the higher terrain
of the Mogollon Rim and Grand Canyon region (where the best low-
to mid-level moisture is overlapping with upper-level moisture,
per CIRA ALPW imagery). MRMS is indicating high instantaneous
rainfall rates (2"+/hr) with initial downdrafts, resulting in
sub-hourly (15-30 min) localized accumulations of 1"+.

As convection continues to proliferate and move relatively slowly
(~10 kts) towards the north-northwest with mean 850-300 mb flow,
cells may locally train to result in localized short-term totals
of 1.5-2.5" (supported by HREF and experimental RRFS neighborhood
probabilities for 1" and 2" exceedance). While these higher
localized totals are most likely in the vicinity of the higher
terrain, the influence of upper-level dynamics may be enough to
support updrafts beyond the typical pulse convection life cycle as
they drift northward. Isolated/localized instances of flash
flooding will be possible.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-CgLUwbUCk-Q701BInwzrz1V5k5eT7UICoZ_2V0MvKB4lSy7FZT4Ukf_zt27CarWQ71U= f5ipgi1gohLdkgNfoqtpJAE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39121195 38381138 37911132 37491128 37211104=20
37191067 37121031 36860999 36590964 36230947=20
35730956 35590991 35591017 35411027 35161042=20
34641028 34351048 34251099 34261152 34221195=20
34251243 34481290 34871342 34901402 35371455=20
35941515 36191566 36611588 37131599 37461630=20
37221699 37851717 38411671 38341529 38781497=20
38891414 38791283=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040839
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-041338-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1045
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
439 AM EDT Thu Sep 04 2025

Areas affected...portions of Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040838Z - 041338Z

Summary...A few spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates have materialized
near/east of Owensboro over the past hour. Isolated flash flood
potential could materialize as the convection reaches
central/eastern portions of the state.

Discussion...Latest radar mosaic imagery depicts areas of training
convection across northern Kentucky near/east of Owensboro.=20
Localized training has led to rain rates exceeding 2 inches/per
(estimated per MRMS). The training storms have materialized amid
strong forcing aloft, with vigorous mid-level waves rotating
through the base of a larger-scale trough over Indiana and
Illinois. Furthermore, strong 850mb flow has maintained enough
low-level flux of moisture/instability into the region to maintain
around 500 J/kg MLCAPE amid low 60s F dewpoints. The orientation
of convergence and cell development (with storms repeatedly
deepening along a surface front near Owensboro and moving quickly
eastward) is favoring areas of training.

The axis of heaviest rainfall is occurring over relatively dry
ground conditions from a lack of rain over the past couple weeks.
Eventually, training convection will reach areas of eastern
Kentucky that have been wetter and are more susceptible to flash
flooding. Instability profiles are expected to gradually
destabilize downstream (per RAP/SPC mesoanalyses), which should
maintain convection downstream while providing opportunity for
continued training and spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates. These
rates may exceed FFG thresholds on a localized basis, providing a
brief window for isolated flash flooding through 13Z/9a EDT.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4PfDzxgmbur0cI0aCVnOyKznsahmvM4kLSvgTRWwOAIyLcsaBg9jmazPZykY-l8cgBqo= 770ZI9eZbWvJmUmdWhnV7BA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38168424 37908306 37228262 36588439 37008639=20
38138586=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 042131
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-050330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1046
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
529 PM EDT Thu Sep 04 2025

Areas affected...much of AZ into adjacent portions southern CA/NV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 042130Z - 050330Z

Summary...Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding likely
through the evening with the highest localized totals (2-4"
amounts over 3-6 hour period) most likely from far southeastern CA
into southwest and south-central AZ.

Discussion...Monsoonally-driven diurnal convection is once again
proliferating across much of the Southwest this afternoon, fueled
by anomalously high tropospheric moisture content (PWs ranging
from 0.8" in higher terrain to 1.9" in the low deserts, generally
between the 90th percentile and max moving average per FGZ, TUS,
VEF, PHX, and YUM sounding climatology) and ample instability
(SBCAPE of 500-3500 J/kg with SBCIN nearly completely eroded).
While convective initiation has largely focused on the higher
elevations, widely scattered cells are also beginning to fire
across the lower deserts of CA/AZ as well. Upper-level support for
convective organization beyond pulse cells is mixed overall, as a
weak upper-level trough axis (base near the AZ/NV border) is
moderately supportive (via weak DPVA enhancing lift) while a
modestly strengthening sub-tropical jet streak (to ~90 kts at 200
mb by 00z) is unideally positioned with the left-entrance over AZ
(supressing broad lift overall).

Regardless of larger convective organization, locally heavy
downpours (MRMS indicating instantaneous rainfall rates of 2"+
with 15-min rainfall approaching 1" in association with pulse
convection) will drive an isolated to widely scattered flash flood
threat in the near term (and increasing shear could help
prolong/intensify pulse cells). Increasing coverage of pulse
convection will likely drive continued development of new cells
via boundary collisions and mergers, potentially resulting in more
substantial convective organization (i.e. training/repeating
cells) across far southeastern CA into southwest and south-central
AZ over the next 3-6 hours (where 12z hi-res CAMs suggest the
potential for 2-4" localized totals). Isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding are likely.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4NRRKvkAeQSuldYTOgFwr9dC-kpUI1VoTeloEbDrBp9LIkJUF5bcBRA5EwwMywVoo_F4= fn7gJJAeHBWVnyH7-yqlg0Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SGX...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36891177 36821141 36521134 36201132 35821112=20
35351093 35121057 34740999 34660949 34400926=20
33780924 33300936 33000953 32800973 32331024=20
31971044 31511076 31311113 31471192 32001353=20
32541510 32501644 32871668 33401686 33971699=20
34311681 34411586 34941577 35601584 36151596=20
36531582 36671505 36281458 36101426 36031375=20
36001336 36131296 36371253 36481233 36751201=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050831
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-051229-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1047
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 AM EDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Areas affected...southern Nevada, western Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050829Z - 051229Z

Summary...A convective complex should move southward along the
Lower Colorado River Valley for the next few hours. Spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates were prompting flash flood concerns, and these
trends may continue through 12Z/6a MDT/5a PDT.

Discussion...A convective complex has gained organization across
southeastern Nevada this morning. It is currently propagating
southward along a moist/unstable axis (1.25+ PW, 500+ J/kg MLCAPE)
that exists along the immediate Lower Colorado River Valley, which
was likely supporting continued and robust updraft development
along the leading edge of the complex. Ascent from stout
mid-level waves over Utah was also supporting convection, and SPC
mesoanalyses were also suggesting modest enhancement of
low-level/850mb flow/flux into the complex, also supporting its
organization. Spots of 1-1.25 inch/hr rain rates were being
estimated per MRMS, which was readily exceeding FFG thresholds
across the area. At least isolated flash flood concerns are
likely between Las Vegas, Mesquite, and along the NV/AZ border in
the near term.

Each of the aforementioned atmospheric factors supporting
organization will also likely support its persistent for a few
hours this morning. Localized flash flooding is expected with the
complex as it migrates southward from I-15 through Bullhead City
and Kingman, AZ. Southward persistence beyond that area is
possible, and portions of the CA/AZ border region near Lake Havasu
City may also experience a flash flood threat later this morning
(around 10-11Z). Lastly, westward backbuilding into the Las Vegas
metro area (supporting urban flash flood potential) cannot be
completely ruled out.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9M0eCtUf_hSQGiWe83-1wxMlDWeeHf8xqJbc-4i4gPwcj-av8cQt7S4SlyBHFkagpNiT= HoRq-TVWoxLzKgAxXrEVKnY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37221598 37091383 36621272 34581256 33721353=20
33721499 34721569 36301625=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050834
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-051229-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1047
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
434 AM EDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Areas affected...southern Nevada, western Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050829Z - 051229Z

Summary...A convective complex should move southward along the
Lower Colorado River Valley for the next few hours. Spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates were prompting flash flood concerns, and these
trends may continue through 12Z/6a MDT/5a PDT.

Discussion...A convective complex has gained organization across
southeastern Nevada this morning. It is currently propagating
southward along a moist/unstable axis (1.25+ PW, 500+ J/kg MLCAPE)
that exists along the immediate Lower Colorado River Valley, which
was likely supporting continued and robust updraft development
along the leading edge of the complex. Ascent from stout
mid-level waves over Utah was also supporting convection, and SPC
mesoanalyses were also suggesting modest enhancement of
low-level/850mb flow/flux into the complex, also supporting its
organization. Spots of 1-1.25 inch/hr rain rates were being
estimated per MRMS, which was readily exceeding FFG thresholds
across the area. At least isolated flash flood concerns are
likely between Las Vegas, Mesquite, and along the NV/AZ border in
the near term.

Each of the aforementioned atmospheric factors supporting
organization will also likely support its persistence for a few
hours this morning. Localized flash flooding is expected with the
complex as it migrates southward from I-15 through Bullhead City
and Kingman, AZ. Southward persistence beyond that area is
possible, and portions of the CA/AZ border region near Lake Havasu
City may also experience a flash flood threat later this morning
(around 10-11Z). Lastly, westward backbuilding into the Las Vegas
metro area (supporting urban flash flood potential) cannot be
completely ruled out.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-_tgIwc_uHeHqcr05UVfy1D_JonvcStOwvKTKr9Xd2OLfw-Jm4Rc6asiP7DnF--xDtmP= u1NgpcNzRuLqPyMBHcFFUxg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37221598 37091383 36621272 34581256 33721353=20
33721499 34721569 36301625=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051231
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-051630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1048
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 AM EDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Areas affected...Lower Colorado River Valley (Western Arizona, Adj California)...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051230Z - 051630Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding threat continues downstream of
slowly weakening MCS/convective clusters within the Lower Colorado
River Valley.=20

DISCUSSION...KESX and GOES-W 10.3um EIR show shrinking convective
complex has had a resent uptick in convective vigor across central
Mohave county. There was a typical weakening trend toward diurnal
minimum, but the leading outflow boundary (combined with
reinforcement from the northeastern dying convection) increased
surface to boundary layer convergence as the cluster was reaching
the nose of the Lower Colorado Valley where lingering unmixed,
conditionally unstable air has been sitting through the overnight
period. MUCIN has been below 25 J/kg and with some southerly weak
flow intersecting the 30-45kt outflow has been sufficient to
reactivate and break through the cap tapping some of the steeper
profiles and 1500-2000 J/kg of ML/MUCAPE. Combine that with
deeper available moisture in lowering elevation and inflow will
continue to support intense sub-hourly rates and localized 1-1.25"
totals.

Most of the Hi-Res CAMs have been traditionally slow to the
forward propagation of the cluster, reducing the moisture
convergence but also delaying arrival to the reservoir of unstable
air further south and have shown the erosion faster. However,
recent RRFS solutions; though still too slow to reality of timing,
do suggest continued southward propagation and longevity through
the next few hours. Still, like any conditionally unstable air,
the updraft strength will require the outflow's convergence to
maintain, but current trends suggest this cluster may continue for
a few more hours and the strength of rates will continue to pose
sub-hourly FFG exceedance and localized flash flooding conditions
along dry washes across the Lower Colorado Valley, mainly east of
the River in Arizona.

Of interest, but perhaps not reaching intensity required for
inducing flash flooding; the rear-inflow jet continues to respond
from NW to SE across south-central NV. Convergence along the
western upstream edge has been similarly sufficient to tap the
steeper mid-level lapse rates for scattered cells. These cells
have favorable orientation for some weak training/repeating; but
also are fairly elevated that evaporative loss may still keep
overall rates/totals just below levels to produce flash flooding,
except if they maintain/track through areas that received heavy
rainfall overnight.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8aPH7a1SVnnQEXE9GCnjMwylxvLwnt0T0egP5wxPxB5Ft58ySvQIttC0BDGuTShqMw0b= v46Xr-E3SHgdw7QxcB1nyFY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35521375 35161322 34481290 33541266 33011326=20
33041421 33401453 34221475 34751481 35271456=20
35501422=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051851
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-060045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1049
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 PM EDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Areas affected...Northern NM & Southern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051850Z - 060045Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms containing locally Excessive
Rainfall rates may result in flash flooding, especially along
sensitive and rugged terrain.

DISCUSSION...A broad and weak positively-tilted 200-500mb trough
axis is located over the Four Corners region and providing some
minor upper-level ascent aloft. Meanwhile, a cold front is
tracking south and east through the southern High Plains and into
the Front Range of the Rockies. There is some modest ENE low-level
flow in wake of the front that is advecting additional moisture
into the region, evident in RTMA 6-hr dew point changes that are
anywhere from 2-8F higher over eastern NM. In the mid-upper
levels, guidance shows a moist 700-400mb column over southern CO
and into northern NM that is helping to raise low-level RH values
above 80%. This has led to PWATs that are ranging between
0.75-1.0" which are encroaching upon the 90th climatological
percentile. Visible satellite imagery also shows most areas west
of the Continental Divide have witnessed modest surface-based
heating that is supporting 500-1,000 J/kg of SBCAPE per RAP
mesoanalysis. These ingredients are fostering a favorable
environment for rounds of thunderstorms to develop within a moist
and unstable environment that could result in flash flooding this
afternoon.

In terms of antecedent soil moisture conditions, NASA SPoRT-LIS
shows 0-40cm soil moisture guidance has spotty areas of >90th soil
moisture percentiles along the Sangre De Cristo Mountains on south
to the Sacramento Mountains. Some areas are drier and the
thunderstorms will generally provide beneficial rainfall, but
between sensitive soils that are saturated in the higher terrain
and nearby burn scars, there is a chance these thunderstorms that
could generate >1"/hr rainfall rates may result in localized flash
flooding through the early evening hours.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4C4Fe8D4q_beQF3kVNdF4_drAWRz6q3Y7D0rdDM9HAufUndX_S5UC7BxKRZIg2EhOVCX= X_oQM2OesLxu4Hxs3GuCONM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37790671 37710581 37130505 35890461 34720475=20
33550522 33500588 33880628 34670638 35470629=20
35570681 34990747 34920791 35170855 35820866=20
37230873 37720843=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052152
FFGMPD
UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-060345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1050
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
551 PM EDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Areas affected...Great Basin & Southwest UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052150Z - 060345Z

SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms capable of producing rainfall
rates around 1"/hr in some cases may lead to additional areas of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A negatively titled 250mb trough over central
California is providing modest upper-level ascent over the
southern Sierra Nevada and Great Basin this afternoon. GOES-19
satellite imagery shows cooling cloud tops aloft as storms tap
into as much as 500 J/kg of MLCAPE per RAP mesoanalysis. In
addition, PWATs are unusually high across the region, topping
0.75" for most areas and thus placing these PWAT values above the
90th climatological percentile. PWATs are closer to 1" in southern
NV and southwest UT. Given the initially strong surface based
heating and synoptic-scale support from the approaching 250mb
trough axis, look for storms to continue into this evening as
emanating outflow boundaries kick-start new storms within the
highlighted region. The available PWATs and MLCAPE should support
maximum hourly rainfall rates around 1"/hr in the most intense
storms. NASA SPoRT-LIS does show some parts of western Nevada and
the eastern slopes of the Sierra Nevada featuring >90th percentile
soil moisture values, so some soils may be rather sensitive to
these heavier rainfall rates. Additional flash flooding is
possible, especially in dry washes and areas with poor drainage.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5c7JB5z5XzZgrfBr-3Resna_Nd1fz-OY-bnCUpGC6iQjuQUM_OkWmeOqi3-KL2mXQ7ZO= FZneN8XdNPBQSSwIn3hpZos$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LKN...REV...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41241863 40851733 40321599 39231446 38931324=20
38691228 38231182 37351191 37231318 37261432=20
36851583 37051700 37151812 37891890 38531925=20
39721955 40901951=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060338
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-060936-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1051
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1137 PM EDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Areas affected...southern/southeastern Nevada, far northwestern
Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060336Z - 060936Z

Summary...Flash flooding remains possible along a stalling
boundary in the discussion area through 09Z/3a MDT.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms were forming along a stalled
low-level boundary extending from just north of Beatty to just
north of Las Vegas to near Mesquite. The downstream,
pre-convective airmass supporting storms is relatively moist and
unstable, with 1+ inch PW values and 1500 J/kg MLCAPE noted amid
8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. 850mb flow fields (per SPC
mesoanalysis) continue to depict a slight enhancement to southerly
low-level flow (approaching 20 knots) perpendicular to the
low-level boundary, sustaining updrafts and heavy rainfall. A few
spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates are occurring. These rates exceed
local FFG across the region and are potentially contributing to
excessive runoff.

The overall pattern will evolve slowly through the night, with
sustained convergence expected to continue firing convection
through 09Z. The slow movement and wetting nature of the storms
should continue to promote flash flood potential on at least an
isolated basis during that time. Mesoscale/convective evolution
should result in small displacements in the boundary, and a drift
toward the Las Vegas metro and adjacent areas of far northwestern
Arizona cannot be ruled out. Flash flooding is possible in each
of these areas, with local rainfall amounts of 2 inches expected.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4EoZjh7ViPJAN2skEFb2luhDp8pzSJ-rWKmvuxyaVK_V-dhvyDa-s7rTpiOzg3sn_c3e= yTOdMsgohMNgUMMjQ_YXmo8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38561744 37751445 36271328 35091363 36261607=20
37531759=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060358
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-060657-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1052
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1158 PM EDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Areas affected...southern/central Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060357Z - 060657Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding is possible with thunderstorm
activity moving eastward across the discussion area.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts a cluster of
rapidly deepening convection over southwestern Arkansas near
DeQueen forming just ahead of an eastward-propagating complex over
McCurtain County, OK. The cluster of cells in southwestern
Arkansas was moving slowly, with rain rates beginning to eclipse 1
inch/hr in spots. Additionally, incoming rainfall from
southeastern Oklahoma should result in another quick 0.5-1 inch of
rainfall, resulting in local amounts of 2-3 inches in a short
amount of time.

These rain rates are falling on areas that have been relatively
dry, with FFG thresholds hovering around 2-3 inches/hr. Flash
flooding could occur on an isolated basis given the scenario, with low-lying/susceptible areas posing the greatest concern.

The downstream airmass is supportive of continued convection, with
steep lapse rates aloft (7C/km) supporting areas of 3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE along and south of a surface boundary in southern Arkansas.
PW values are also around 1.6+ inch. This airmass and
convergence along/just north of the boundary should continue to
support heavy rainfall as storms move/propagate eastward.

Given the aforementioned scenario, isolated instances of flash
flood potential are possible as spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates
spread through central Arkansas. Local amounts of 3 inch totals
are also possible through 08Z/3a CDT

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5brhvbclcIznn8ArH4epTp7q-VBoYUQqu52wAc_Ru7vMIshrLPksY1nfz_ULeuEboSDo= MHx5_3gil5ZEJ15g540eDEk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34869154 33599149 33399355 33719452 34689430=20
34739325=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060932
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-061330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1053
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
531 AM EDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Nevada, western Arizona, far
southeastern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060930Z - 061330Z

Summary...A long-lived thunderstorm complex should persist for a
few more hours and possibly prompt instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...A long-lived MCS currently extends from near Las
Vegas east to near the Grand Canyon. The complex remains
organized and well positioned within a moist/unstable axis along
the Colorado River Valley (1+ inch PW, 1000 J/kg SBCAPE). Weak
southerly low-level flow was enhancing convergence along the
leading edge of the complex, while mid-level vort maxima were
likely aiding in ascent to help maintain the intensity of the
complex. Areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates continue to be estimated
per MRMS beneath the strongest, most persistent activity, which
has likely led to excessive runoff in a few locales (based on MRMS
Flash responses).

Current trends suggest that the complex will continue to drift
southward along the Colorado River into western Arizona along the aforementioned moist/unstable axis. Boundary layer cooling has
been slow to take hold in this area, and point forecast soundings
suggest continued potential for sustained updrafts. Weak
southerly flow at 850mb should also help maintain the MCS for a
few more hours. Gradually weaker mid-level lapse rates exist with
southern extent though, suggesting that the complex may weaken
eventually. The specific timing of the onset of this weakening
trend is uncertain.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6Vxrhu5q0nQa3eQBDPUhUuJEMCj6hdoA8MKvEEVZtWX_9D_CP_NdVO5kcXjks7DjaZlX= wJWou7iVP2uuMVjlFUegws8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36901451 36401339 35161254 33761289 33711463=20
35891527=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061713
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-062300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1054
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
113 PM EDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Areas affected...northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061712Z - 062300Z

Summary...A couple areas of flash flooding will be possible from
the northern Mid-Atlantic region into southern New England through
23Z. Areas of short term training will be capable of hourly
rainfall from 1 to 2+ inches and spotty 3 inch totals. Given dry
antecedent conditions, the flash flood threat appears to be mostly
urban in nature.

Discussion...17Z observations placed a cold front stretching from
NH/VT into southern NY, eastern PA and central MD. Surface
moisture ahead of this boundary has increased since 12Z with
dewpoints in the low to mid-70s from southeastern PA into parts of
NJ as layered PW imagery showed a swath of deep layered moisture
advecting northeastward from the lower MS Valley. 17Z SPC
mesoanalysis data showed estimated PWs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches and
filtered sunshine has helped to increase MLCAPE into the 1000-2000
J/kg range. Recent visible satellite and radar imagery showed the
beginning stages of convective development along the front from
northeastern MD into northwestern NJ.

There is sufficient vertical shear for organized storms with both
organized and ordinary cells likely containing forward speeds
between 20-35 kt toward the northeast/east-northeast. Largely
unidirectional flow from just above the surface to the tropopause
was oriented parallel to the front which would normally be
supportive of training. However, a steady 10-15 kt progression of
the cold front is forecast which should limit training to
mesoscale waves along the front and/or thunderstorm related
outflow that cause convection to align with the mean wind. This
situation could support 1 to 2+ inches of rain in an hour or less.
Given much of the region has been dry over the past 1-2 weeks, the
flash flood threat should remain mostly tied to overlap of heavy
rain with the urban I-95 corridor and/or some of the surrounding
more flash flood prone areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Qkd-zBGYYOiMWeSPgxat76eAuBOHHfvjx4z8EbgPUM1lrzCg9G-l9NdmffKtzi7DqYK= u1C2X4utZIE1WrYEr-Y0x4Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...CTP...GYX...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43037179 42157189 40887301 39907419 39517521=20
39337605 39437645 39877631 40777521 41777425=20
42947297=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061827
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-070030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1055
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 PM EDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona, Southwest New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061830Z - 070030Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand across portions of
New Mexico and Arizona this afternoon and evening. As convection
intensifies, brief rainfall rates t0 3"/hr are possible resulting
on 0.5-0.75 inches of rain in 15 minutes. This may cause flash
flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E day-cloud phase micro-physics RGB this
afternoon shows a slow expansion of ice-clouds associated with
strengthening updrafts driving deepening Cb. At this time these
are mostly positioned across southwest NM and focused in higher
terrain, but should expand and move into lower elevations during
the next few hours. Despite some drier air encroaching from the
west noted in the LPW fields, PWs remain 1.25 to 1.5 inches as
measured by GPS, above the 90th percentile for the date, which is
overlapping SBCAPE that is climbing to 1500 J/kg within regions of
clearing. These thermodynamics are supporting the increasing
updrafts, with additional lift being provided by a weak surface
trough analyzed by WPC and a shortwave that will slowly dig
southeast into the evening.

Despite the relatively fresh convection, these storms have already
produced 15-min rainfall as measured by MRMS of 0.3 to 0.4 inches
in the deeper cells. As the afternoon progresses to peak heating,
surface instability may exceed 2000 J/kg, likely causing these
rain rates to become even more intense. Additionally, the
shortwave dropping southeast may help focus some organization
later this afternoon, especially as storms begin to drop off the
terrain and dive E/SE on 0-6km mean winds of around 10 kts. A lack
of significant bulk shear will keep storms generally of the pulse
variety, but in the presence of the increasing ascent and
favorable thermodynamics, residual outflow boundaries will likely
lead to additional development. This could reuslt in storm
mergers/collisions causing rain rates to perk up to as much as
0.75"/15 min as reflected by the HRRR-forced UA WRF precipitation
rate and HRRR 15-min rainfall product.

Although total rainfall in most areas will likely remain below 1
inch, a few repeating rounds are possible which could cause
locally more than 2 inches. While this will enhance the flash
flood risk, it is possible that any of these intense rain rates,
even if short lived, could cause rapid runoff as 3-hr FFG is
generally only around 1 inch in many areas. The HREF exceedance
probabilities for this 3-hr FFG peak as high as 50% in southern
AZ, but any of this heavy rain falling atop vulnerable regions
such as urban areas or burn scars, could experience impacts from
flash flooding into this evening.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!99dzq7IUQKyvn3avb1hIDqbUdram2GDffIWqvWKCNKp6j-HbkSXA4qySCTl48fUZSWL-= -dyElsTl25kwMa3UEBNEa5Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34830806 34680675 34470615 34080556 33270529=20
32530539 32000602 31770667 31580729 31390809=20
31270897 31281048 31271092 31441158 31791165=20
32221127 32731077 34350905=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070043
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-070630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1056
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
843 PM EDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Areas affected...Southern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070042Z - 070630Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will continue
across southern Arizona for a few more hours. Heavy rainfall
capable of producing 0.5-0.75 inches in 15 minutes may create
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows
continued development of showers and thunderstorms across much of
Arizona and New Mexico. This convection is forming within
favorable thermodynamics characterized by PWs measured on the TUS
00Z U/A sounding of 1.39 inches (near the 90th percentile for the
date) and 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE. A weak mid-level impulse embedded
in generally westerly flow is helping to drive broad ascent across
the region, while a weak surface convergence axis near the
Mexico/Arizona border, as well as remnant outflow boundaries and
collisions, are aiding to produce the activity this evening.
Although storms moving off the terrain are generally moving
progressively to the E/SE, clusters forming across southern AZ are
slower moving and exhibiting some back building behavior.

As the evening progresses, a local increase in coverage of
convection is progged by many of the available high-res CAMs
across southern Arizona, especially in the vicinity of Pima and
Santa Cruz counties. This will be in response to subtle moisture
convergence on weak 850mb flow along the gradient of some higher
PWs, but also in response to subtle SW drift of convection as
propagation vectors gradually veer into the higher moisture. With
mean 0-6km winds expected to remain light, and propagation vectors
additionally weak, these slow moving storms will linger across
some areas despite being of the pulse variety. The 15-min HRRR and
HRRR forced UA WRF both suggest intense rainfall could reach
0.75"/15 mins, which is additionally supported by 5-10%
neighborhood probabilities for 2"/hr from the HREF. Where these
storms linger, or where multiple rounds can occur, locally as much
as 2-3" of rainfall is possible.

0-10cm soil moisture across southern Arizona is generally below
normal according to NASA SPoRT, although there are some pockets of
wetter soils across the area. Regardless, if these intense rain
rates move atop the natural vulnerability of this region,
especially across any burn scars, urban areas, or sensitive
terrain, instances of flash flooding could result until convective
overturning occurs around 06Z.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6XFuW3leIxN2zZrFWyQ7KZ3xRTLQsRnU5yiHnunDMFd-g48O60lLYYZLHGgAKmpRhJMO= TP2EIoC0i8_I9l1P8n1MiS8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32831100 32830976 32590916 32310900 31800895=20
31390918 31080985 30971061 31141135 31381192=20
31621251 31921300 32251350 32701352 32781264=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070615
FFGMPD
WAZ000-071000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1057
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
214 AM EDT Sun Sep 07 2025

Areas affected...western/central Washington State

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070614Z - 071000Z

Summary...An instance or two of flash flooding is possible across
the Pacific Northwest as scattered thunderstorms move
slowly/erratically over the next 2-4 hours. Areas of 1 inch/hr
rain rates are expected.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts a gradual
expansion in convective coverage across western and central
Washington State currently. The storms are generally moving
northwestward, though weak low-level shear was promoting areas of outflow-driven activity with erratic storm motions. Spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates were being estimated per MRMS with the more
dominant activity, suggesting that flash flooding might occur
especially if that rainfall occurs atop sensitive ground
conditions and/or burn scars. The storms are being supporting by
1) ascent lifting northward around the base of a larger-scale
mid/upper trough over the northeastern Pacific, 2) steep mid-level
lapse rates (generally above 7C/km away from storms), and 3) a
moisture plume across the area, with PW values generally in the
1-1.3 inch range. Each of these factors suggest that an instance
or two of flash flooding might occur as storms move through the
region in the near term.

Models/observations suggest the period of peak flash flood risk
might only extend through 09Z/2a PDT or so. The mid-level
vorticity max helping to force ongoing convection should lift
northward into southwestern Canada, resulting in a minimum in
forcing aloft amid stabilizing low-levels from widespread
rainfall. A limited threat for thunderstorms may exist beyond the
09Z/2a PDT timeframe, and flash flood potential will be reassessed
around that time.

Of note - some of the thunderstorms may also produce dry lightning
and fire starts. Additional information on these threats can be
found at your respective local forecast office (weather.gov) and
SPC fire weather information (spc.noaa.gov).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6-2GaFK6ln1qD0eK1_sxoe7WzmHRV_M3Au8Pv9bCEzSu2e0My9vEYfPd9g1SNhEkeD76= k6qOHzI6tSmoI5XNYTh_tiI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...PQR...SEW...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48712153 48411990 47381918 46222023 46612342=20
47952347 48372269=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071232
FFGMPD
TXZ000-071800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1058
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
832 AM EDT Sun Sep 07 2025

Areas affected...Western Hill Country & Lower Pecos River Valley
of Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071230Z - 071800Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing flash flooding likely to continue for the
remainder of the morning with very slow moving and surprisingly
efficient rainfall production producing highly focused 2"/hr rates
over sensitive/low FFG terrain. Additional 3-5" totals resulting
in likely focused flash flooding. A spot or two of considerable
and/or significant flash flooding is possible.=20=20

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic over the last few hours has
seen a slight uptick in convective activity in both strength and
coverage with the scattered observations indicating surprisingly
efficient rainfall production with 2"/hr rates and some localized
2-5"/3hrs reported resulting in localized flash flooding. The
overall environment is expected to change very little over the
next few hours as cells continue to remain fairly stationary with
small movement.

The overall dynamics has been supportive of the scattered
convective environment, as GOES-E WV shows a very concentric but
broad upper-level ridge across northern Mexico, placing SW TX/Hill
Country into a favorable upper-level divergent pattern at the
entry of a speed max of a jet just east of the 30N100W benchmark.=20
Small northeast quadrant diffluence, but also slightly digging
northern stream influence across the Big Country in combination
with approaching northern stream short-wave feature is combining
to allow for solid evacuation of these thunderstorms. In
addition, the shortwave to providing ascent, has strengthened
surface easteries, though a shallow boundary layer/inversion is
drawing moisture up through the Rio Grande Valley to the Lower
Pecos (per Sfc-850mb LPW animation) and lifting in northward on
850mb flow per VWP in the region. Total deep layer moisture is
lower than expected for such an observed efficient cells; the flux
is most likely loading the lower warm cloud portion with the low
to mid-70s Tds for 2"+/hr rates for the highly focused updrafts
that have developed.=20=20

The vertical shear profile (along with the upstream height-falls)
supports a westerly back-building environment counteracting the
steering flow aloft to result in a fairly stationary nature in the
short-term. As the height-falls/shortwave arrives, a slow
southward motions are likely into the Rio Grande Valley toward
Mexico. Flux up the Rio Grande is expected to continue to keep
slow but efficient rainfall production likely over the next 4-6
hours. As such, spotty 3-5" totals are probable and will result
in focused (scattered in coverage) but potentially considerable
flash flooding conditions (as FFG values are naturally low
1-1.5"/hr & 1.5-2.5"/3hrs) in fairly rugged terrain.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ptKWcbjGgExB-8-QlbZCGkLXWgtuctLuGSmv2P_Qt21At6GM-JSOlf9z_KHR_FAq35s= YCqdFSmK26QpkhzxI_K7JOE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31120201 31120100 30649929 29949871 29149935=20
28850041 29180092 29640153 29870197 30260236=20
30810241=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071857
FFGMPD
TXZ000-080100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1059
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 PM EDT Sun Sep 07 2025

Areas affected...South-Central Texas through the Middle Texas
Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071900Z - 080100Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move slowly
across the region through the evening. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr
are likely at times, leading to 2-3" of rainfall with locally
higher amounts. This may cause instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows
widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms from the southern
Hill Country of Texas eastward through the Middle Texas Coast.
This activity is blossoming/persisting in response to weak
shortwave energy dropping SE around a ridge over northern Mexico,
with some of this vorticity likely associated with the remnants of
Lorena from several days ago. Additionally, a stationary front is
draped across South Texas as analyzed by WPC, which is providing
additional focus for ascent through convergence across the area.

This lift is occurring within impressive thermodynamics
characterized by PWs measured by GPS as high as 2.25 to 2.5
inches, and measured via the KCRP special 18Z U/A sounding of
2.26, approaching the daily record for the date, combined with
MUCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg. This is providing ample fuel for
thunderstorm development, and moist-adiabatic lapse rates through
500mb of the area sounding supports the efficient warm-rain
processes which have somewhat surprised in intensity so far today
in producing MRMS measured hourly rainfall of 1.5 to 2.5 inches,
even in modest reflectivity signatures.

As the aftn progresses, the CAMs are in good agreement that the
focus should become along the stationary front where the enhanced
convergence will drive deeper ascent. Modest bulk shear of 20-25
kts will help organize some storms into clusters along this
boundary, and as low-level easterly flow intensifies (as reflected
by a surge in sfc-850mb LPW), storm motions will collapse to
around 5 kts. These slow moving storms will contain rain rates for
which the HREF neighborhood probabilities suggest will exceed
2"/hr (as high as a 40% chance), producing locally as much as 0.5"
to 0.75" in 15 min as reflected by the recent HRRR. Where storms
train or repeat with these rain rates, 2-3" of rainfall with
locally higher amounts is expected.

Although rainfall south of the Hill Country has been modest
recently as reflected by AHPS 7-day rainfall that is generally
10-50% of normal, leading to a sharp gradient and increase in FFG,
the region still appears vulnerable to at least isolated flash
flood instances through this evening. This is due in part to the
efficiency of the anticipated rainfall rates, but also due to
expected repeating rounds near the stationary front leading to FFG
exceedance as high as 30% from the HREF.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8BuOeNH8btnc9-4e-hEgXHzDm3HK-II08JrsbQzVW3PV4NnEhqWLDBt5_-ws5Xye9dKZ= cGbA6zbBii3y_gbdJF_Rjgs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29960018 29919816 29569601 29059580 28469603=20
28149668 27879696 27539711 27289761 27309842=20
27489923 27689976 28100028 29720128=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072155
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-080330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1060
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
554 PM EDT Sun Sep 07 2025

Areas affected...Coastal Plain from central Florida to eastern
North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072154Z - 080330Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will persist
through evening along a stalled cold front. Rainfall rates of
2-3"/hr are expected to be common, which through this slow storm
motion could produce 2-4+" of rainfall. This may result in flash
flooding, especially across urban areas.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening indicates a
continued expansion of showers and thunderstorms from the central
Florida Peninsula northeast along the coastal plain through Cape
Lookout, NC. This activity is blossoming along a cold front, which
has merged in places with the sea breeze to stall near the coast.
The combined ascent along this boundary is the primary focus for
convective development, although a weak shortwave noted across the
FL Panhandle is lifting northeast downstream of an anomalous
trough axis to provide additional ascent.

This lift is acting upon a rich thermodynamic environment
characterized by PWs measured by GPS of 1.8 to 2.0 inches,
overlapping pockets of SBCAPE analyzed by the SPC RAP that are
above 2000 J/kg where convective overturning has yet to occur. The
presence of this steady ascent into this robust airmass has
produced scattered thunderstorms with rainfall rates estimated by
the local radars of as much as 2.5"/hr, and measured via
observations and MRMS to be as much as 3" in 1 hour. This has
resulted in isolated flash flooding near the city of Charleston,
SC already this aftn.

The CAMs were slow to pick up on the uptick in activity, but have
started to support a more widespread heavy rainfall event into
this evening before loss of heating/instability occurs. HREF
neighborhood probabilities for 2"/hr rates peak above 40% through
01Z, coincident with loss of instability and finally a slow push
east of the cold front. Until that occurs, however, widespread
thunderstorms are likely, and although most should be of the pulse
variety, some increased bulk shear to 20-25 kts in the vicinity of
the mid-level shortwave could organize thunderstorms into clusters
to enhance rainfall rates to locally as much as 1"/15 min (brief
4"/hr rates). Weak storm motions as reflected by just 5 kts of
0-6km mean winds and aligned Corfidi vectors suggest that storms
could build SW along the front and into some more impressive
thermodynamics, before training E/NE from northeast FL through
eastern NC. This could result in local rainfall totals approaching
4-5 inches.

Although this area has been extremely dry (0% rainfall the past 7
days according to AHPS outside of parts of the FL Peninusula),
these intense rain rates could still overwhelm soils leading to
rapid runoff. This will be most likely across urban areas, but
some vulnerability exists even outside of the population centers
should any of these intense rainfall rates train repeatedly across
any given area. This suggests that flash flooding remains possible
through the evening, but the risk should wane rapidly after dark.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4mnubCIcRvsRdUCL-ihIV7zyIPCX-Z6SDtRHEuOUyi8-nF6ocHiRzLkyJQgKJHg9H8dP= dHzsCRwWLzJawLbFN9JbNdc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...ILM...JAX...MHX...MLB...RAH...
TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35127693 35057628 34767613 34507629 34317677=20
33967757 33637817 32927909 32397992 31758063=20
30988099 29938085 29198046 28348046 28238099=20
28338144 28758196 29468244 30138278 31128273=20
32238221 33198104 34057989 34557865 34947770=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081305
FFGMPD
KSZ000-081700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1061
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
904 AM EDT Mon Sep 08 2025

Areas affected...North-Central Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081303Z - 081700Z

Summary...Heavy thunderstorms will continue to redevelop over a
narrow corridor of north-central Kansas through the late morning.
Rain rates up to 2.5"/hr should continue with additional rainfall
of 2-5" possible. Localized flash flooding should persist.

Discussion...A narrow north-south oriented axis of heavy rain
persists over I-70 just west of Salina.
Northwesterly upper level flow is over the central Plains
downstream of a ridge axis over the central Rockies. Surface high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes is aiding moist return flow
up the Plains with a low level veering wind profile of southerly
at the surface and 20-30kt 850 SWly flow. This is resulting in
slow storm motions and upwind propagation allowing for repeating
heavy rain.

Despite the strong southerly low level flow, moisture is not that
great with PW around 1.3" and sfc dewpoints in the mid-50s over
central KS. Instability is sufficent with a gradient up to 1000
J/kg upstream which quickly drops off to the east (before Topeka).
Hi-res forecasts allow the southerly inflow to persist for at
least a few hours this morning as opposed to the normal decrease
of the LLJ after sunrise. Therefore, localized heavy rain should
continue to occur. FFG is around 2.5"/3hr which has been met
rather locally. The continued development should put areas well
over FFG and cause perhaps locally considerable flash flooding
rest of the morning.

Recent HRRR runs have this activity shifting east, but as least
for now the trend is to keep the line drifting south.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8OgRdrk97NKXsDtwXiMJBBm4VEhFv3bHGjqx2c7jNiSDsYj1D4shlFRPWVjksN3gIVmc= -f3qxZyEe8HgSURdtnlmrvQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39549775 38999733 38159751 37999788 38209854=20
38809837 39479817=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081656
FFGMPD
KSZ000-082100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1062
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1255 PM EDT Mon Sep 08 2025

Areas affected...Central Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081654Z - 082100Z

Summary...Persistent heavy thunderstorms will continue to
redevelop over a narrow north-to south corridor of central Kansas
into this afternoon. Rain rates up to 2.5"/hr should continue with
additional rainfall of 2-5" and storm total rainfall exceeding 12"
possible. Flash flooding with localized considerable impacts
should persist before finally easing later this afternoon.

Discussion...The narrow north-south oriented axis of repeating
heavy thunderstorms persists across I-70 west from Salina. The
slow moving synoptic pattern of an upper ridge axis over the
central Rockies and surface high pressure centered over the Great
Lakes is maintaining northwesterly flow over southwesterly low
level flow over the central Plain. Moist return flow up the Plains
with a low level veering wind profile of southerly at the surface
and 20-30kt 850 SWly flow has maintained slow storm motions and
upwind propagation/redevelopment allowing for repeating heavy rain
over the same axis. This axis has expanded south, into the low
level flow, over the past few hours.

Little change in this flow pattern is expected from the RAP until
around 20Z with some mid-level veering which may dislodge this
particularly persistent heavy rain axis.

PW is now 1.5" (a little above normal) with this continued influx.
The static nature of the pattern is also attributed to the
instability gradient which has changed little over the past four
hours with sufficent 1000 J/kg upstream quickly drops off to the
east (west of Manhattan, KS).

CAM guidance continues to struggle with this activity with the
HRRR and RRFS still trying to shift it east. Once the mid levels
veer more westerly then that should take place, making for mainly
beneficial rain to areas east of this hard hit axis. Until then,
considerable flash flooding will continue with localized totals
reaching or exceeding 12".

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7fpxNVgyR9riDgyYdwqwgOs0MZV0Ks06Cp69irCDtSH8Vo_ulh79hLJPCz0eF17Xjcuq= CME5R8VeQFIEoGheglw3Ow8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39449828 39399778 39049732 38539738 38089759=20
37719790 37869855 38389855 39049833=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 082121
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-090100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1063
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
520 PM EDT Mon Sep 08 2025

Areas affected...south-central to southeastern KS and northern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082119Z - 090100Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will remain possible from
portions of south-central to southeastern KS and northern OK over
the next 3-4 hours. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches (locally higher)
will be possible with potential near term impacts in the Wichita
metro area within the next hour.

Discussion...A long-lived MCS over east-central KS has been
responsible for MRMS-derived rainfall totals up to 12 inches in a
north-south axis to the west of Salina. As of 2045Z, this
relatively compact system was moving south-southeastward, with an
embedded MCV near Emporia, but with the heaviest rainfall rates
were occurring on the west side of the complex along an
instability gradient that was oriented NNE to SSW (MUCAPE up to
1500 J/kg). Meanwhile, MUCAPE values over eastern KS were near
zero, coinciding with stratiform rain and non-hazardous rainfall
intensities. Thunderstorms were elevated in nature, rooted in the
800-700 mb layer per RAP analysis soundings over the region with
elevated convergence in this layer supporting continued pockets of
hourly rainfall between 1 and 2 inches (locally higher).

As the MCV continues to follow the northwesterly flow aloft toward
southwestern MO, the axis of elevated convergence helping to
support the continued high rainfall rates will translate
southeastward, at the edge of the elevated instability axis. It is
unclear if possible weakening of the convergence axis (per short
term RAP forecasts) and/or movement of the convergence axis into
weaker instability will occur, thereby weakening rainfall rates,
but cloud tops continue to show bursts of cooling on infrared
satellite imagery, suggestive of the flash flood threat continuing
for at least another 1-2 hours. While a southeastward translation
of forcing will shift the complex away from the stronger 850 mb
jet axis (25-35 kt) over central KS, sufficient strength of the
low level flow will likely maintain over the I-35 corridor to
support some backbuilding and training of cells as heavy rain
advances toward the S to SSE. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches is
expected to continue a flash flood threat, especially into the
Wichita metro area in the next hour along with other locations
along the I-35 corridor into northern OK through 01Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6XB2XUCGvLiDOsiHj5LEPgmBhvDo_PyyC21vialfBksdMEXpxT6HZ2jQN6LoCDGF2j19= ZXjhrXaD7kclMjrAuwPvivw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38929791 38889751 38499675 37979649 37239611=20
36569606 36219624 36029720 36289853 37369896=20
38189828 38779814=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 082147
FFGMPD
FLZ000-090100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1064
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
546 PM EDT Mon Sep 08 2025

Areas affected...southeastern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082144Z - 090100Z

Summary...Intense hourly rainfall of 2-4 inches will continue to
be possible across the urban corridor of southeastern FL for
another 2-3 hours. Flash flooding will be possible.

Discussion...MRMS reflectivity from 2130Z continued to show areas
of thunderstorms over southeastern FL where 21Z SPC mesoanalysis
data showed MLCAPE of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg and PWATs of 2.0 to 2.2+
inches. Cells were disorganized but very slow moving with MRMS and
gauge data showing hourly rainfall in the 2-4 inch range and
15-minute rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches over eastern Palm Beach,
Broward and Miami-Dade counties since 19Z.

While the Miami-metro has already picked up 2-4 inches, and
rain-cooled air has settled into the region, high surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s along the eastern Peninsula may
be limiting low level convective inhibition, potentially allowing
for additional convection later this evening. Another round of
heavy rainfall may impact portions of the Miami/Fort Lauderdale
metro over the next couple of hours as mean westerly flow may
support translation and/or additional development near/ahead of an
inland cluster of thunderstorms over southern Palm Beach into
western Broward counties. Meanwhile, ongoing cells farther up the
coast may lead to an isolated/urban flash flood threat within the
next 2-3 hours, before cells likely weaken after sunset.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_dbVeJ5TgSHQvV2dtteXPk3NdAqS_RXdQhsfbtnUhwbPJLoliorIpMSyBIXs15XS7rzC= 2O1OPOGCscuW-he5BwVhe-A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26848034 26817996 26347984 25837998 25448024=20
25428054 25618066 26138058=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090016
FFGMPD
CAZ000-ORZ000-090415-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1065
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
815 PM EDT Mon Sep 08 2025

Areas affected...southwestern/western OR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090011Z - 090415Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms with repeating and brief
training could result in an inch or two of rainfall with rainfall
rates of 1 inch in an hour or less for portions of
southwestern/western OR. Isolated flash flooding could result,
with a particular focus across burn scars.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery from GOES West at 00Z
showed the low to mid-level reflection of a closed low west of the
northern CA coast containing a number of smaller scale vorticity
maxima rotating about the low center. In addition, another
vorticity max was located inland, over northern Douglas County in
southwestern OR, moving toward the north. Scattered thunderstorms
were observed through radar/satellite imagery along and just west
of the Cascades and across portions of the Klamath Mountains of
southwestern OR. While PW values were anomalous for early
September (+2 to +3 standardized anomalies), instability was
somewhat limited with pockets of 500-1000 J/kg in place over the
region via 00Z SPC mesoanalysis data.

Deeper layer mean flow was from the south at 10-20 kt, similar to
the low level inflow layer, which was favoring repeating and brief
training of cells in a few locations. While the threat appears
isolated, there will be the potential for cells to generate
rainfall of an inch within 60 minutes or less time. These
localized higher rainfall rates could overlap with sensitive
terrain or burn scars to result in isolated flash flooding. The
flash flood threat is likely to diminish with the loss of daytime
heating and reduction in instability after 04Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7juXn12P2XvRjw5FO_GiHYeSjFptrhuUgWfLJv-2sRn91Z9VJotsm0KMG112qxLtbxTy= usJC8UcW58nvem7eaCrT9L0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...MFR...PDT...PQR...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 44692233 44472206 43982189 43262205 42732214=20
42252228 42022261 41922316 41982373 42242393=20
43162394 44052370 44692285=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090110
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-090600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1066
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
909 PM EDT Mon Sep 08 2025

Areas affected...northwesten OK into the eastern TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090106Z - 090600Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flood potential will exist from
northwestern OK into the eastern TX Panhandle through 06Z. Hourly
rainfall of 1-2 inches (locally higher) is expected with the
threat potentially shifting slowly toward the south with time.

DISCUSSION...Local radar imagery across northwestern OK into the
northeastern TX Panhandle showed scattered thunderstorms with a
couple of slow moving cells and cyclic supercells resulting in
localized flash flooding. Surface observations from 01Z showed a
few cells from northern OK into southwestern KS were along an
outflow boundary related to earlier thunderstorms that moved
through southern KS/northern OK. Meanwhile, an new cold pool was
forming due to expanding convection from northwestern OK into the
northeastern TX Panhandle.

As the low level jet increases overnight, with RAP forecasts
showing 850 mb wind speeds up to ~40 kt by 06Z, scattered
thunderstorms or a small convective cluster may pose a flash flood
threat with potential propagation toward the south into the low
level inflow. With mean cell motions from the WNW to N, there will
be the possibility for training along the western flank of the
potential MCS if organization should develop and advance southward
following Corfidi Vectors. While moisture is modest/average for
early September, there is ample instability (2000 to 2500+ J/kg
MLCAPE via AMA and DDC 00Z soundings) with steep mid-level lapse
rates which should maintain sufficient CAPE well into the early
part of the overnight. While increasing convective inhibition is a
concern, ascent along the developing/advancing cold pool could be
enough to overcome capping to allow at least a localized flash
flood threat to maintain over the next few hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6b6m6rm8G1bCUqM_UiVW-xs5RBK6yLEsPJBz8VAFZbq5oz9WPRxWewI9ogNctO3Nyq5s= T5dYERj2wRRa2AwFZfwIS8I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37000045 36949921 35969934 35329947 34409961=20
33950024 34110148 34680186 36280150=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090113
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-090600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1066...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
912 PM EDT Mon Sep 08 2025

Corrected for typo in areas affected

Areas affected...northwestern OK into the eastern TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090106Z - 090600Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flood potential will exist from
northwestern OK into the eastern TX Panhandle through 06Z. Hourly
rainfall of 1-2 inches (locally higher) is expected with the
threat potentially shifting slowly toward the south with time.

DISCUSSION...Local radar imagery across northwestern OK into the
northeastern TX Panhandle showed scattered thunderstorms with a
couple of slow moving cells and cyclic supercells resulting in
localized flash flooding. Surface observations from 01Z showed a
few cells from northern OK into southwestern KS were along an
outflow boundary related to earlier thunderstorms that moved
through southern KS/northern OK. Meanwhile, an new cold pool was
forming due to expanding convection from northwestern OK into the
northeastern TX Panhandle.

As the low level jet increases overnight, with RAP forecasts
showing 850 mb wind speeds up to ~40 kt by 06Z, scattered
thunderstorms or a small convective cluster may pose a flash flood
threat with potential propagation toward the south into the low
level inflow. With mean cell motions from the WNW to N, there will
be the possibility for training along the western flank of the
potential MCS if organization should develop and advance southward
following Corfidi Vectors. While moisture is modest/average for
early September, there is ample instability (2000 to 2500+ J/kg
MLCAPE via AMA and DDC 00Z soundings) with steep mid-level lapse
rates which should maintain sufficient CAPE well into the early
part of the overnight. While increasing convective inhibition is a
concern, ascent along the developing/advancing cold pool could be
enough to overcome capping to allow at least a localized flash
flood threat to maintain over the next few hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!81BbSdVex5g0vdcA-ex1_UxpGsamW46KqiZQW69Jep5OL_kp1VUNwTyT2q-FWbE0MYKA= ouNuuCztLjC35aHvkXvKRH8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37000045 36949921 35969934 35329947 34409961=20
33950024 34110148 34680186 36280150=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091825
FFGMPD
FLZ000-100024-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1067
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 PM EDT Tue Sep 09 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091824Z - 100024Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are expanding along and ahead of a
stationary front and associated surface low. Slow storm motions
and periodic cell mergers could lead to 2-5" of rainfall within
the highlighted area, which will drive an increasing risk of
isolated to scattered urban flash flooding this afternoon.

Discussion...Latest surface analysis depicts a stationary front
and offshore wave of low pressure west of Tampa Bay, which extends
eastward through Central Florida. Along and ahead of this front,
showers and thunderstorms have expanded in coverage and intensity
(MIA recently reported a 2.18"/hr rainfall rate) over South
Florida amid persistent insolation and moistening, possibly
coupled with right entrance ascent from a strengthening jet-streak
to the north.

Objective analysis estimates suggest very moist and unstable
inflow characterized by 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 2.3-2.4" PWATS"
(near the daily max for MFL and KEY) has materialized near this
activity, which will support increasing probabilities of 3"/hr
rainfall rates over the next 2-3 hours per the HREF and REFS.
While weak vertical shear profiles on the order of 15-20 kts
should support limit individual cell longevity, cell mergers along
resulting outflows and the sea breeze could favor spots of 2-5"
within the highlighted area. Accordingly, expect an increasing
risk of isolated to scattered flash flooding in sensitive urban
areas along the coastline this afternoon.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_G-kvjZ5XaswBZjZ-KraVtnVsg_eebenqujrrNFA5aoPU1sxGGhmjwcHKwkemFoxa66N= adL3WLbI7o0N9U4Zzejq2_s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27378021 27047991 26397992 25808001 25328023=20
25398066 25808059 26498038 27088043 27338037=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091905
FFGMPD
FLZ000-100000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1068
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EDT Tue Sep 09 2025

Areas affected...Southwest Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091902Z - 100000Z

Summary...Heavy thunderstorms developing ahead of a low west of
Fort Myers will continue to push over the southwestern FL
Peninsula through the rest of the afternoon. The potential for
repeating heavy rain raises isolated risk for urban flash flooding.

Discussion...A trough extending from low pressure centered 150
miles or so west of Ft. Myers is providing focus for heavy
thunderstorms tracking from The Gulf into the SW FL coast. Recent
hourly rainfall estimates from KTBW of up to 3" are a reasonable
maximum that can be expected with this activity. A very moist and
unstable atmosphere with 2.4" PW 3000 J/kg SBCAPE is present
across the southern FL Peninsula. Weak vertical shear profiles on
the order of 15-20 kts support limit individual cell longevity,
but organization from forcing ahead of the low and convergence at
the coast will continue to allow bands of heavy thunderstorms to
develop and shift inland from Port Charlotte south through Naples
rest of the afternoon. Rainfall of 2-6" is likely within the
highlighted area which causes flash flooding concerns for
sensitive urban areas.

CAMs have struggled with this activity, but the diurnal
enhancement of activity along a boundary in this extreme moisture
environment warrants concern for excessive rainfall.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7mXjJfyzamDVio0V6eoXr9eelp2BlDw3UtM2T77RbpWgbE0NoczsBAQp5K-yLJX2zVnI= mad8bZ5AZzoO4Qa8xIGPgSE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27168221 27108163 26058128 25748138 25688166=20
26098228 26968271=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092116
FFGMPD
FLZ000-100115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1069
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
515 PM EDT Tue Sep 09 2025

Areas affected...Central Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092115Z - 100115Z

Summary...Scattered heavy thunderstorms are expanding along and
south of a stationary front can be expected to continue to develop
into the evening. Slow storm motions and periodic cell mergers
could lead to 2-5" of rainfall and continued localized urban flash
flooding.

Discussion...A stationary front crossing the Florida Peninsula
north of Cape Canaveral and Orlando is under an upper trough over
the Southeast U.S. Scattered heavy thunderstorms continue to
develop across central FL with isolated hourly rates of 3" and
flash ponding/urban flash flooding concerns.

High moisture (PW 2.3 to 2.4") and instability (2000-3000 J/kg
SBCAPE) along with deep warmth is allowing for particularly
efficient cells. Vertical shear profiles of 20-30kt are sufficient
to retain development while keeping slow motion. Additional
central FL locations receiving a quick 2-5" is possible through
00Z before nocturnal processes begin to diminish the activity.
This is in agreement with recent CAMs such as the HRRR and
experimental RRFS.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9swSuAhP-ft50YLHZECCZhOO8KrtcLfo6cVrO4LoohkN43B_OwRJbDLWAxYXoV6N5hAh= rw0RHDqZ2x75rD83RC86xwQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29088211 28898073 28298052 27468028 27248066=20
27188136 27388181 27998191 28458247 28908274=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102105
FFGMPD
CAZ000-110300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1070
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
504 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Areas affected...Northern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102100Z - 110300Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered slow-moving showers and thunderstorms
across northern California are likely to contain maximum rainfall
rates up to 1"/hr and may overlap with sensitive burn scar
locations. Leading to the potential for isolated flash flooding
through this evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-West ML-WV imagery depicts and vertically
stacked mid-upper level low over northern California this
afternoon, which has led to sufficient lapse rates up to 8C/km and
blossoming thunderstorms coverage. Mean layer winds underneath
this low are very weak or nonexistent, which has anchored most of
the heavy rainfall to the Klamath and Siskiyou Mts of northern CA.
These slow-moving storms and buoyant atmosphere may help rainfall
rates peak up to 1"/hr, but with most cells likely exhibiting
rates around 0.5"/hr.

These rainfall rates are enough to cause concerns over recent burn
scars that are most susceptible to rapid runoff. It is within
these locations where isolated to scattered flash flooding is most
possible through this evening until daytime heating diminishes and
lapse rates lessen. However, isolated flash flooding is also
possible elsewhere should thunderstorms containing 1"/hr rates
maintain and remain stalled over an area for a few hours.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!47EWxXAU9ANuy96zr7gZZA9t8PU82v5iwhMSGIsRZw4F_IRmetrGPA1EWB5dGkqHIDNF= EU2YG37LswkWg2hJpPlSg4k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...MFR...MTR...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41872178 41652145 41112139 40482137 40042144=20
40042187 40482215 40382246 40022256 39542248=20
38812228 38652268 39062311 40032354 40902358=20
41432323 41802251=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102342
FFGMPD
IDZ000-ORZ000-110540-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1071
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
741 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Areas affected...Parts of Central/Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102340Z - 110540Z

SUMMARY...Numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of 1"/hr
rainfall rates across central/eastern Oregon and far western Idaho
this evening may be slow-moving at times and could pose the threat
for isolated flash flooding. This is primarily a concern over burn
scars.

DISCUSSION...A closed low over northern California evident on
GOES-West satellite imagery this afternoon continues to usher
southerly flow on the eastern periphery before upper flow becomes
more easterly and convergent near eastern and central Oregon.
Meanwhile, a southerly 300mb jet across the central Great Basin
also places eastern OR/western ID in the favorable left-entrance
region and provides additional upper lift for thunderstorm
development and maintenance through early tonight. PW values range
from 0.8-0.9" per SPC's mesoanalysis, which is +2.0 standard
deviations above the climatological average for this part of the
country. Additionally, SBCAPE values of 1,000-1,500 J/kg are
sufficient for strong updrafts to tap into the available moisture.

Current MRMS estimates for hourly rates are up to 1" near the John
Day Highlands and 18Z HREF probabilities for over 1"/hr totals
continue to exceed 20% until around 02Z. These rates when combined
with coverage of thunderstorms could lead to flash flooding for at
least a few additional hours should heavy rainfall overlap with
the several sensitive burn scars across the region.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_TKX933nqAx5AVXQyGVp4FAgSLkLdplA3V82vAYsYEyFRelys96zZ2T72uBZ4EVamPre= x0Dg7QrLJHt3zeMfUzseUso$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...MFR...PDT...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 45151847 45111767 44851708 44161670 43271654=20
42591663 42251706 42231760 42451794 43081834=20
43241844 43561918 43392023 43392094 43642123=20
44202091 44771975=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102346
FFGMPD
IDZ000-ORZ000-110540-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1071...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
745 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Corrected for Typo in Discussion

Areas affected...Parts of Central/Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102340Z - 110540Z

SUMMARY...Numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of 1"/hr
rainfall rates across central/eastern Oregon and far western Idaho
this evening may be slow-moving at times and could pose the threat
for isolated flash flooding. This is primarily a concern over burn
scars.

DISCUSSION...A closed low over northern California evident on
GOES-West satellite imagery this afternoon continues to usher
southerly flow on the eastern periphery before upper flow becomes
more easterly and convergent near eastern and central Oregon.
Meanwhile, a southerly 300mb jet across the central Great Basin
also places eastern OR/western ID in the favorable left-exit
region and provides additional upper lift for thunderstorm
development and maintenance through early tonight. PW values range
from 0.8-0.9" per SPC's mesoanalysis, which is +2.0 standard
deviations above the climatological average for this part of the
country. Additionally, SBCAPE values of 1,000-1,500 J/kg are
sufficient for strong updrafts to tap into the available moisture.

Current MRMS estimates for hourly rates are up to 1" near the John
Day Highlands and 18Z HREF probabilities for over 1"/hr totals
continue to exceed 20% until around 02Z. These rates when combined
with coverage of thunderstorms could lead to flash flooding for at
least a few additional hours should heavy rainfall overlap with
the several sensitive burn scars across the region.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7be0Pbm6fH-fgJpB4gspljXV0quXMyItl4hE2nBrRSgVXv2Er_CsfEOoDsoRPWQ8435l= FQSSF5FPoYJdDIa1XLbyNDs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...MFR...PDT...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 45151847 45111767 44851708 44161670 43271654=20
42591663 42251706 42231760 42451794 43081834=20
43241844 43561918 43392023 43392094 43642123=20
44202091 44771975=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120451
FFGMPD
NDZ000-120930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1072
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Areas affected...northern ND

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120449Z - 120930Z

SUMMARY...Repeating and training of thunderstorms over northern ND
may result in localized flash flooding over the next 3-5 hours.
Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches and localized totals of 2-4 inches
are expected (locally higher possible). Some of the expected
rainfall could overlap with an area of heavy rain which fell
during the day on Thursday over northeastern ND.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KMBX through 0430Z showed a small
cluster of thunderstorms, located roughly 20-40 miles ENE of
Minot, with a history of backbuilding and training. The storms
were elevated in nature, located north of a stationary front which
draped southeastward from southern ND, with a 25-35 kt 850 mb jet
supporting overrunning and robust low level moisture transport
through the northern Plains. SPC mesoanalysis data from 04Z showed
MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg PWATs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches over
north-central and northeastern ND. In the upper levels, there was
a focused area of divergence and diffluence positioned under the
left exit region of a 90 kt jet max centered over UT/AZ.

The RAP supports eventual veering and weakening of the low level
jet between 06-09Z over the northern Plains which should help to
dislodge the ongoing activity over ND and shift it toward the
east. An area of MRMS-estimated 2 to 5+ inches of rain impacted
portions of northeastern ND over the past 24 hours which has left
soils locally more sensitive to runoff from additional rainfall.
This area is located east of the ongoing thunderstorms over
north-central ND. Until the storms begin to shift downstream,
there will be a short term flash flood concern from
backbuilding/training cells over north-central ND with eventual
translation toward the east. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches
is expected (locally higher possible) which may result in
localized flash flooding through 09Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_pXY7uPRFq5WQC_aw0NImY3WdQunlflK3SIFAz2vQvLnkIArIua0BrfPMAb4nB7H7v-w= hONEfRZf0CyPf7oKUZozXo8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49119947 48929771 48189779 47849922 47720044=20
47730123 47930188 48450205 48860187 49040134=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120700
FFGMPD
FLZ000-121100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1073
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Areas affected...east coast of FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120658Z - 121100Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding will be possible along the east
coast of FL from nearly stationary cores of heavy rain through
11Z. Hourly rainfall totals of 2 to 3+ inches and localized total
rainfall of over 4 inches may occur.

Discussion...Reflectivity from KMLB and KAMX showed an axis of
heavy rain aligned along and just offshore of the FL Peninsula,
from Saint Lucie to Palm Beach counties. A lack of lightning
within this axis inferred warm rain processes ongoing with
estimated PWs of 2.0 to 2.3 inches and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE via
06Z SPC mesoanalysis data. MRMS-derived hourly rainfall has been
in the 1.0 to 2.5 inch range over the past 2 hours. The rainfall
appears to have formed along the land breeze boundary and water
vapor imagery helped identify a subtle vorticity max between Grand
Bahama and Palm Beach County, helping with lift across the region.
There may also be right-entrance region divergence aiding lift,
tied to a jet max positioned just off of the Carolina coast. VAD
wind plots showed that onshore flow in the 925-850 mb layer was
from the northeast, with advection of unstable air from the warm
offshore waters pushing slightly inland. Weak steering flow was
supporting slow net movement of cells. In addition, a weak surface
low may be forming along a stationary front draped east to west
across the southern Peninsula with return flow focused into the
coast, to the north of the low.

West to southwest flow aloft implies the vorticity max should
advance farther away from the coast over the next few hours but
some degree of onshore flow will remain in the short term,
supporting the potential for continued slow moving/nearly
stationary cores of heavy rain along the coast from roughly Palm
Beach County to southern Brevard County. The environment favors
the continued potential for hourly rainfall from 2 to 3+ inches
and storm totals possibly over 4 inches. However, this flash flood
threat looks to be rather localized and short term, focusing the
greatest impacts with overlap of the urban corridor.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!61ZNJoEs-0noFmVEDkY0TkfuRlJDFZHrDAuTCoLazWNx_98B_rJgQgggtvP-5HOxIQdi= Qb7ZAb-KCOaDzoXB2kmjI6E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28348050 28158019 27687992 27137982 26727975=20
26177984 26258022 27068038 28178072=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121807
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-122330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1074
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
206 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Areas affected...Western CO...Eastern UT...Northwest NM...Far
Northeast AZ...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121805Z - 122330Z

SUMMARY...Quick bursts of sub-hourly .5-.75" totals and isolated
repeating spots that may have localized maxima to 1.5" through the
afternoon will push naturally low FFG values, especially near burn
scars and steep gulleys. A few spots of flash flooding are
possible through the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-East WV suite depicts a global scale meridional
trough between 117W and 114W slowly shifting eastward, with strong
core of energy just west of the base of the overall trough across
the Lower Colorado Valley providing a favorable downstream
environment to draw remaining enhanced sub-tropical moisture out
of the Sea of Cortez northward across the Four Corners region into
western CO. CIRA LPW, denotes core of the best moisture remains
along and just west of the NM/AZ line through the lowest levels
though surface Tds across the Four Corners into Western CO still
above normal with mid-50s in AZ/NM and upper 40s to low 50s in the
higher altitudes of the San Juans and further north.=20
Additionally, WV suite shows a kink in the upper level jet pattern
with expanding right entrance region across S UT into CO as the
upstrem jet core rounds the base over the Lower Colorado. This
will further enhanced surface to 700mb southwesterly flow while
also providing solid larger scale UVVs and outflow to maintain
convective clusters.=20

Currently best convergent clusters reside on the northwest nose of
the deeper level moisture across East central UT starting to
spread across west-central to NW CO. Total Pwats of .75-1" are at
1.5 standard anomalies and with strength of deep layer flux
convergence is supporting some above average efficiency
thunderstorm activity (including some that induced flash flooding
further west in E UT). This includes increasing agitation/TCU
field across SE UT, though larger clusters capable of .5"/hr
totals continue to expand over SW CO. Cells are fairly
progressive, but also have a weak training/repeating orientation
as the overall height-fall axis presses eastward very slowly over
the next few hours. Scattered to numerous spots of .25-.5"
totals are probable, though isolated sub-hourly totals up to .75"
and a random potential for repeats may result in a spot or two of
1-1.5". The sheer rate within complex terrain and natural low FFG
values in that .5-1"/hr range, along with noted burn scars
suggested widely scattered incidents of flash flooding remain
possible this afternoon into evening.

Further south, the speed max rounding the base of the trof and
overall slow eastward motions further increased DPVA and favorable
enhancement of weak shortwave feature lifting out of Northern Old
Mexico into SE AZ. Stronger thunderstorms are developing at the
intersection of the SSWly enhanced LLJ flow and the Mogollon
Rim/San Francisco Mtns. Redevelopment along those ridges is
likely to continue and support downstream repeating clusters
across W and NW NM and far eastern AZ. Deeper layer moisture of
1.25 to 1.4", especially loaded below 700mb suggest slightly
higher efficiency than further north and spots of 1" are probable
and possible to induce localized flash flooding in prone arroyos.=20
=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9T-OLZ3E2BSJf-K05TlOENTOtCk0lJGlk96RvKzpPjAOTrSvHu7bPX-8MlLw7Jm-GqJd= yv0rmGbwOBgdQRSwIi13sPQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...FGZ...GJT...PUB...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40810709 40570572 39460533 36370664 35080728=20
34280778 33850854 33900944 34340996 34831000=20
35950987 36970970 37620997 38471034 39690972=20
40650849=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121955
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-130100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1075
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona...Southwest New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121955Z - 130100Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective coverage and eventually rainfall
rates. Isolated rates of 1-1.5" and scattered spots of 2" may
pose localized flash flooding conditions through evening.

DISCUSSION...CIRA LPW shows subtropical moisture plume from
850-500mb core along and just south of the US/Mexico border
between Santa Cruz county, AZ and central Dona Ana county, NM
extending northward along the AZ/NM within strong southerly
confluent deep layer flow. Deep layer bulk shear, remains strong
with 35-45kts mainly along the upwind edge in SE AZ as strong
upper-level flow slowly approaches from the west. The base of the
strong upper-level trough is also ejecting a upper-level jet
streak to further support large scale ascent and divergence aloft
for thunderstorms that do develop.

Nearly full insolation being well south of mid to upper-level
cloud coverge due to the exiting shortwave over N AZ/SE UT, has
allowed temperatures to rise into the 90s across the lower valley
and through the mid to upper 80s into the slightly higher
topography along and south of the Mogollon Rim in SE AZ/SW NM.=20
MLCAPEs of 1500-2500 J/kg will support strong updraft developing
and isobaric influenced moisture flux to any even weakly rotating
updrafts. Given Tds in the 60s and the overall Total PWat values
of 1.25 to 1.5", should support some localized 1-1.25"/hr totals
(as instantaneous rates would be well over 2"). Deep layer flow
may reduce residency at a given location, but with the upstream
forcing remaining strong and slowly ejecting, should support back-building/upstream flank development to support
repeating/training locally. As such, spots of 1.5-2" in 1-3 hours
are likely to scattered across the area of concern. Given
rugged, hard-pan soil conditions across many locations, FFG values
are naturally below these hourly rates and therefore localized
flash flooding conditions are considered possible through the
remainder of the evening across SE AZ/SW NM.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4bpg3qr9z-sedWc8YUNdyNgjj0lK_zgXTenA9xgAkR5W16azxrzxt97ITFhY1_y04uC6= udddRvUAfSFZZnuMDV0uBb8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33900782 33220739 31900720 31700762 31630808=20
31210816 31170923 31231101 31851145 33381091=20
33801000=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 122103
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-130230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1076
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
503 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Areas affected...Northeastern WY...Far Western SD...Southeast
MT...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122100Z - 130230Z

SUMMARY...Stationary to slowly repeating cells near Big Horns,
likely to expand in coverage with approach of shortwave.=20
Localized totals of 2"+ are possible but very isolated. Flash
flooding is possible, particularly near burn scars and/or complex
terrain.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows an anti-cyclonically arched
outflow band of cirrus along/ahead of embedded shortwave now
entering southeast WY. Along an north of the outflow band,
divergence has been driving deep layer ascent across the Big Horn
mountain range, where a few cells developed over the last few
hours. Deep layer steering generally resulted in northeasterly
motion and initial downdrafts were generally drier or hail
producing. However, low level response has strengthened
northeasterly flow from deeper low level moisture across SE MT
banking it up against the Big Horns while, mid-level moisture from
the approaching shortwave, along with initial up/downdrafts having
moistened the profile. While some instability was lost to this
moistening, RAP profiles and instability fields still strongly
suggest ample 750-1250 J/kg of instability along the left exit of
the outflow jet. Recent Visible and EIR imagery from GOES-E
suggest continued updraft vigor across the central Big Horns with
increasing rainfall rates likely. Lightning from GLM/NLDN
suggests a few stronger embedded rotating updrafts will likely
keep the heavy rainfall footprint to be more isolated in nature.=20
Total PWat values increase to 1" and given Tds in the low 50s, and
solid moisture flux convergence, rates of .75"/hr are probable.=20=20
This appears likely to continue for an additional hour or two.

Upstream, the main shortwave is providing even further broader
scale DPVA and therefore ascent. Banded Cu fields are starting to
sprout stronger TCus and CBs across central WY. The increase in
coverage and further deepening of mid-level moisture will
eventually expand overall coverage of convection capable of
localized .5-1" hour totals. Some flanking development may allow
for some enhanced streaks of higher totals. As such, overall
coverage is not likely to be high, but isolated totals of 1.5-2"+
are probable and in proximity to terrain or steep river
valleys/bluffs may result in localized flash flooding conditions.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5lEcyKsKzLRwa9Won-7uzYahcsgp61dz9-J-n0u2jcDVovsdeLRAeLVW2XBE0vCE_t3A= zUW8PovJ73NS8_Dp800syR4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...CYS...RIW...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 45970457 45710372 45280334 44650311 43710317=20
42790416 42130578 42210690 42930746 44200744=20
45370685 45930560=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 122148
FFGMPD
MTZ000-130245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1077
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
547 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Areas affected...North central Montana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122145Z - 130245Z

SUMMARY...Stationary to very slow moving thunderstorms capable of
1-"/hr and localized 1.5-2.5" totals pose localized flash flooding
conditions through the evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts area of concern is located
along the eastern edge of the northern portion of a large global
scale meridional trough that extends from southern Alberta to the
Lower Colorado River Valley in CA/AZ. Embedded within, are
smaller shortwave centers, one lifting northwest to reinforce the
apex of the larger trough and the center core over the W MT
borders. This placement provides solid height-falls to support
low level easterly flow out of the northern Plains where
seasonally abnormal deep layer moisture resides, with nearly 2 to
3 standard deviations from the Sept mean over the Dakotas. Though
the anomalies are a bit less across the area of concern, the
strength of the eastern flux over the last few hours along with
solid insolation supported enhanced conditionally unstable air,
generally centered through the Little Belt Mountains and Judith
Basin of central MT. Total Pwats are nosing up from .75 toward 1"
though heating and modest lapse rates support 500-1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE.=20

Convergence along the terrain supported convective initiation a
few hours ago and rates of .75"/hr have been estimated with some
higher values likely contaminated with hail, though that adds to
moisture on the ground. The concern here, though resides in
duration as mid-level steering flow is very weak at 15-30kts
(increasing to the east), but in proximity to left exit of the
larger scale anticyclonically curved jet over SE MT, providing
divergence aloft. As such, effective cell motions are mainly
driven on propagation/regeneration of updrafts along the outflow
boundaries. This allows for some 1-2 hours of near stationary
rates supporting some localized totals up to 2". Current trends
in Visible/IR and GLM/NLDN lightning suggest further expansion
northward across Chouteau and Blaine counties with trends that
suggest mergers may result and increase rainfall efficiency toward
1-1.25"/hr. Given FFG values of 1-1.25"/hr and generally less
than 2"/3hrs, widely scattered incidence of exceedance and
therefore potential localized flash flooding is considered
possible through evening.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4IznCq-I-ZesXHtjHmIxjzpzKT_MyI23oO9G_ANceUTi01uwqPkeLetWxM-GGIkxLo-j= yPdXhIenD3lpvnq2ejmRVe0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 49031013 48990897 48930779 48390761 47370792=20
46530846 46290904 46420964 46671004 47031069=20
47311129 47811149 48831126=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 122343
FFGMPD
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-130545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1078
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
743 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Areas affected...Southwest ND...Northwest SD...Far Southeast
MT...Far Northeast WY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 122345Z - 130545Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, increasingly efficient thunderstorms
capable of 1.75"/hr and localized totals of 2-3.5" across
south-central ND with possible flash flooding, before expanding
development from approaching wave increases convective coverage
into the early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible/10.3um EIR loops show an expanding
cluster of strong updrafts and expanding anvil canopies across
south-central ND with a few additional upstream cells developing
ahead of the main approaching wave out of E WY. Surface analysis
shows a narrow SW to ENE convergence axis from HEI and between
KY19 and K7L2, which due to some enhanced low level moisture
pooling and solid heating throughout the day, resulted in an axis
of enhanced conditionally unstable air with 2500-3000 J/kg of
MLCAPE available for the strong updrafts. A deep surface cyclone
in the mid-Missouri River Valley across SD, further enhanced low
level confluence/convergence while increasing though depth to
support enhanced moisture with localized pockets noted in the
lower 3 layers, surface to 850, 850-700 and 700-500mb in the CIRA
LPW products; resulting in well above normal moisture (nearly 2-3
std anomalies from Sept norms).

The catalyst toward greater expansion is the slightly faster than
progged, jet speed max enhanced by upstream convection along/ahead
of main shortwave feature moving northward through the broad south-southwesterly flow. Broadening diffluence at the apex of
the 500mb ridge is providing oblique divergence aloft to support
broader scale ascent and reducing low level inhibition. Now with
expanding thunderstorms, the deep layer flow in combination with
the surface low in SD, is reducing forward propagation at the apex
of the 500-1000mb thickness ridge, mid-level DPVA upstream further
results in backed lower level flow to help with back-building
environment for effective stationary to slow moving cell
development, while continuing easterly inflow of unstable/moist
air. As such, expanding downdrafts with ample moisture flux will
support 1.75-2"/hr rates over the coming hours and with slow
motions, localized totals of 2-3.5" are becoming more probable.=20
West of the Missouri River in SW ND and NW SD, FFG values are
naturally lower and 1hr FFG values of 1-1.5"/hr & 1.5-2"/3hrs are
likely to be locally exceeded, suggesting a few incidents of flash
flooding. Combine with an additional upstream round of strong,
but progressive thunderstorms to further add to these scattered
localized pockets of 2-3.5" and flash flooding is considered
likely this evening into the early overnight period.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4b4jztBNOIchkIQzilcMlouvr6YDg8_GNva4C77sO6b5HQ2SwHtYAIViP3QuZZ3d1kpu= 6uJmAt4ej1TzAoVfVrxmb4k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...BYZ...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 47240120 47079984 46449945 45669994 44970132=20
44200330 44530447 45610459 46460358 47000241=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 130027
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-130600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1079
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
826 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona...Southern New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130030Z - 130600Z

SUMMARY...Isolated totals of 1-2" in less than 3 hours continue to
pose widely scattered incidents of flash flooding possible through
early overnight period.=20

DISCUSSION...Deep layer confluent southerly flow continues to
slowly press eastward across central CO through central NM. While
deep south-southwesterly flow is pooling moisture out of the Sea
of Cortez through the Mexican Sierra Madre Occidental, it is
starting to angle more southwesterly and with less direct flow.
However, this may be compensated with some minor upslope flow
through the Rio Grande Valley and Southern Plains (per CIRA LPW,
Surface to 700mb layers). However, instability is reducing along
the downstream edge into the Southern High Plains and activity
will reduce in coverage and intensity through time, but some
isolated .75"/hr and totals to near 1.5" are possible.

Along the western edge of the deep layer moisture, fading visible
imagery loops and limited surface observations suggest, westward
propagation of the upwind edge remains across SE AZ. As the base
of the larger scale trough exists, continued upslope moist flow
will continue to support scattered to widely scattered
thunderstorms, but with solid bulk shear; updraft rotation should
concentrate moisture flux convergence to support efficient
rainfall production given 1.25-1.5" total PWats. Rates of
1-1.25"/hr remain possible. Deep layer steering may allow for
some of the widely scattered cells to cross tracks with earlier
rainfall tracks maintaining isolated incidents of flash flooding
into the early overnight period across SE AZ into SW NM.=20=20


Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7oBswKL6qfz7lvcDYgPxzo1mk8cnZxDpQlg7Q1ae80qYVUQ7HJAaRmxHYQt90lYi95Vl= UsqHPJb_pu9Ho6LpNgJLEjI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35660628 35480520 34550473 32780510 31740637=20
31690798 31230810 31170943 31151036 31281091=20
32281059 33780957 35090788=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 130624
FFGMPD
SDZ000-NDZ000-131200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1080
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Areas affected...western ND into western/central SD

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130622Z - 131200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms with periods of embedded training/backbuilding will pose a possible threat for flash
flooding over the northern High Plains through 11Z. Hourly
rainfall of 1.0 to 2.5 inches will be likely at times.

DISCUSSION...Area radar imagery over the northern High Plains at
06Z showed a NW to SE axis of thunderstorms advancing
northeastward from southwestern ND into west-central SD, along
with a few slower moving cells over northwestern ND. This activity
was located out ahead of a mid-level vorticity max and
southeastward extending shortwave trough axis located over WY.
Numerous smaller scale vorticity maxima were embedded within the south-southwesterly flow aloft into the High Plains, out ahead of
the shortwave trough, helping to focus areas of thunderstorms
within areas of surface convergence beneath a diffluent and
divergent flow pattern in the upper levels. SPC mesoanalysis data
from 06Z showed CAPE of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg along with anomalous
PWs of 1.3 to 1.5 inches over the western Dakotas, but with only=20
a few small pockets of weak to negligible convective inhibition.
Easterly low level upslope flow was in place over portions of the
western Dakotas, aiding in convergence/ascent ahead of the
advancing convective segment tracking through southwestern
ND/west-central SD.

Synoptic and mesoscale forcing aloft, out ahead of the main
shortwave trough over the High Plains, combined with areas of
surface convergence will likely maintain scattered thunderstorms
over portions of the western Dakotas through the overnight, with
potential for redevelopment and expansion of thunderstorms over
western SD over the next 1-2 hours. While the evolution of
convection over the next few hours looks a bit messy, flash flood
guidance is relatively low over western SD and portions of western
ND, with values between 1 and 2 inches in an hour. Some exceedance
of these lower flash flood guidance values are expected with areas
of flash flooding possibly resulting over the next 3 to 6 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6GKoZSud3hJ1MyCTViP7Xnu6BfC3lmjcoymGD8vGRCfo0fthLRciCtdkckxTq6Wv1xs8= JEjcDzs-5v7bI0U0z9Xbw5k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49110306 49010183 48430157 47280102 46420029=20
45369974 44050027 43280161 43530294 44290358=20
45710357 47520386 48960373=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 131940
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-140115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1081
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Areas affected...New Mexico...Far Southeast Arizona...Portions of
Western Texas Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131940Z - 140115Z

SUMMARY...Deep layer available moisture and sufficiently unstable
environment to support storms capable of up to 1"/hr. Some
favorable development lines and deep layer flow may result in
repeating tracks and localized spots of 2", resulting in possible
widely scattered, but localized flash flooding throughout the afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Core of strong large scale trof continues to slowly
lift northeastward across southern UT with solid downstream
height-falls supporting broad scale ascent pattern allowing for
increased overall convective coverage today. The deep layer
sub-tropical moisture has further angled SW out of the northern
Mexican Plateau into southern New Mexico, though the western
gradient remains across far SE AZ into north-central NM. However,
this is shifting eastward with strong, well defined dry slot
(700-500mb CIRA LPW denotes this very well) off the San Francisco
Plateau through the Four Corners. This is overall narrowing the
moisture plume, but also increasing southeasterly upslope flow and
surge of Gulf of America moisture through the Rio Grande/Pecos
River Valley into the NM High Plains.=20=20

Solid clear skies, particularly west of yesterday's leading height-fall/pressure trough currently seen through the TX
Panhandle back southwest through the Davis Mountains and western
TX panhandle. As such, surface temperatures have supported a
solid increase in instability fields, slightly higher further
southward given deeper overall moisture (Tds in the low 60s) and
good lapse rates, though still with ample deep layer moisture to
support efficient rainfall production.=20

At this time, SW to NE linear features are expanding in convective
anvils and embedded overshooting tops across far SE AZ and SW and
west-central NM. Orientation is parallel to the mean flow so some
repeating tracks are probable. However, cell motions are above
normal limiting overall duration of any internal core, still quick
burst of .5" totals and 1-1.25"/hr totals could be possible with
said repeating. Hard ground conditions/naturally lower FFG values
suggest localized exceedence is possible resulting in possible
localized flash flooding.

As the afternoon progresses, SSW to NNE 70 jet streak will
continue to lift north across CO and increasing diffluence will
further expand already sufficient divergence area, for further
uptick in convective coverage with expanding clusters across
central NM into the High Plains. The further acceleration of
deeper moisture should also increase rainfall efficiency toward
late evening (after 00z) with rates of 1-1.5"/hr becoming
possible. An update to the MPD may be required as these clusters
grow upscale later this evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7G_ir-FoXeVBA-9DkzF9snX7eZdnaBBt8lbX58RydRTFJF_8RvGni2LJH5Ii-J6_MBLD= kl_Jk2R6QhoX1JqhqyPtqM4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36870499 36840389 36320321 35130314 33120322=20
32430404 31240490 31010565 31700679 31660792=20
31230809 31180863 31220974 31311045 32371063=20
33370940 34460826 35490738 36530617=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 132020
FFGMPD
COZ000-UTZ000-140130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1082
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
420 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Utah...Western Colorado...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 132020Z - 140130Z

SUMMARY...Expanding slow moving, rotating cells capable of quick
1"/hr rates and localized scattered incidents of flash flooding in
arid, rugged terrain likely to continue through the evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows core of strong base of larger
scale trough is centered across south-central UT, slowly lifting
ENEward. Strong DPVA and broad divergence along the UT/CO border,
along and east of the 3H trof and west of the 50-80kt 3H jet is
providing strong vertical ascent across much of the area of
concern. Deep layer moisture has been pressed further east in the
warm conveyor belt, but sufficient lingering westward wrapping of
the western branch of the TROWAL has maintained a solid moisture
gradient across SE UT into SW and south-central CO, all while the
strong, well defined dry slot under-cuts the circulation across NE
AZ/NW NM. CIRA LPW denotes this evolution very well, with still
some lingering enhanced moisture to feed the strong vertical
development noted in Visible and 10.3um EIR loops.=20

Total moisture, mainly loaded from 850-700mb only totals about
.75" but with north to northeast flow fluxing into the stronger
cells along the northwest edge of the dry slot; sub-cloud
evaporation is helping to moisten the full profile while
intra-cloud processes slowly increase rainfall
generation/efficiency. Effective bulk shear to 40kts, also helps
to keep updrafts rotating, increasing moisture flux convergence
through the lower profile and supporting rates up to 1"/hr.=20
Additionally, being north of the stronger southwesterly steering
flow also will slow northeastward cell motions up to 5-10kts and
with Bunker's right moving propagation vectors near 15-20kts
further aides residency of the stronger/broader up/downdrafts
allowing for some localized 1-2" totals. Given the naturally
arid, rugged geological formations, little infiltration is
expected resulting in high run-off and localized flash flooding.=20
Remaining pockets of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and favorable slow
northeastward drift across W CO, will likely maintain the risk for
these local flash flooding incidents through the remainder of the
evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_bPJikECOFoz7t_FqR15qvJnvKlZ_gNlH3pkWnDu-kfYcwOwDLomGTM72Qlc3cJUYaDz= wBX5SN7TiTql8DAoNowygyk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...PUB...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40340733 40070676 39140640 37990599 37110609=20
37000708 37040849 37090964 37511045 38231041=20
39000967 39880847=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 132118
FFGMPD
NDZ000-MTZ000-140230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1083
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
517 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Areas affected...Northwest NDak...East-central & Northeast MT...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132115Z - 140230Z

SUMMARY...Highly anomalous moisture, increasing instability and
slow cell motions with some back-building training possible.=20
Rates of 1.5"/hr and localized 2-3" totals may result in possible
scattered incidents of flash flooding through early overnight
period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a conducive dynamic environment
aloft to maintain and support new convective development within a
seasonally, highly anomalous moisture regime. The northern,
smaller closed low/short-wave to the parent large scale meridional
trough is well defined and compact over central MT. It is
connected via a boundary layer convergence/confluence axis that
waves eastward before turning north along/just west of the MT/ND
border where it eventually connects back up to the exiting
vorticity center over southwest Canada. Along and east of the
confluence boundary, deep layer moisture with highly anomalous
(2-4 standard anomaly units) above average exists across the
Northern Plains. Upper 60 to low 70s Tds with southeasterly flow
strengthening to 20kts at 850 provide deep layer convergence to
the boundary.=20

GOES-E Visible imagery shows developing overshooting tops through
the mid-level cloud deck along the boundary, some denoting some
Wedge/'V' shaped signatures. This is indicative of the exiting
upper level 70kt speed max and the cells moving into better right
entrance ascent. Combine this with sharply arched cirrus canopy
over central SD denoting the nose of the next speed max suggests
this favorable divergence aloft will likely maintain for quite a
few hours into the early overnight period. Limited motion of the
convergence boundary is expected given the surface to low level
flow, providing a solid opportunity for convective cells to
train/repeat over NW ND through the evening. The limiting factor
continues to be the lack of surface heating due to the mid-level
canopy, so vertical vigor may limit overall rainfall
production/intensity in the range of 1-1.5" (given total PWat
values of 1.5-1.7") and CAPE 500-750 J/kg. As such spots of 2-4"
are possible resulting in possible flash flooding.

Further west,
Clearer skies, has supported some low level heating near the
stationary mid-level feature and eastward along the low to
mid-level shear axis into eastern MT. A few stronger cells have
developed, utilizing the enhanced surface heating and weak to
moderate convergence. Limiting factor with these cells mainly in
in the deeper moisture profile. While still above normal Tds in
the low 50s and total Pwats range from 1-1.25". This should
reduce overall efficiency and rates to around 1-1.25"/hr but slow
cell motions perhaps even stationary near the vorticity center
itself could result in localized 2-3" totals in 3-6hrs. Recent
rainfall and FFG values in the 1-1.5"/hr & 1.5-2"/3hrs suggest
these rates/totals may result in an incident or two of flash
flooding through the evening.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-9oKTOZFx8OhC-Giohk7XbHE7S77PP1jzDox3MeYvKRp4E6NkOBkJ_UIGAPtfcy9q9Nf= 1nVl_4wd0IyWEGVeN8arw8c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49100372 49100195 48970143 47790197 47080269=20
46510356 46050498 46160712 46190863 46330927=20
46850995 47500964 47690877 47730798 47970679=20
48390554 49050456=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140437
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-141000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1084
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1236 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Areas affected...West TX into southeastern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140435Z - 141000Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered areas of flash flooding
will be possible across a fairly broad region of western TX into
southeastern NM through 10Z. Cells containing periods of training
and/or slow movement will be capable of 1-2 in/hr rain rates and
isolated totals in excess of 2 to 3 inches.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 0415Z showed a broken line of
thunderstorms extending from the TX Panhandle into southeastern NM
across Roosevelt and Lea counties. Meanwhile, cell coverage was
increasing across the Trans-Pecos region of far western TX with
general movement toward the east. These thunderstorms were located
ahead of the southern portion of a shortwave trough crossing
central NM with broadly diffluent flow located aloft across the
region. In the lower levels, 850 mb wind speeds have been
increasing as noted via VAD wind data from KMAF and KLBB with
30-35 kt at 04Z, a 15-20 kt increase since 01Z. These winds have
been coincident with a surge of low level moisture advecting
northward up the Rio Grande Valley as viewed on the sfc-850 mb
layer of OSPO LPW imagery. PW anomalies were +1 to +2 standard
deviations above the mean and MLCAPE was estimated via 04Z SPC
mesoanalysis data to be 500-1000 J/kg with varying degrees of
inhibition.

Forcing ahead of the eastward advancing mid to upper-level trough
and mesoscale axes of lift/convergence at the leading edge of
ongoing convective outflow, the low level jet and terrain
influences are likely to continue scattered thunderstorms over the
next 3-6 hours. With the mean steering flow oriented generally
from the west (SW to NW), any convective line orientation matching
the steering flow will support training and potential for 1-2
in/hr rain rates. This is most likely from the TX Panhandle
southward to about I-10. Farther south across the Trans-Pecos,
scattered cells are likely to continue as they track east into the strengthening low level jet (forecast to reach 40-45 kt by 08Z)
with brief instances of repeating and training possible.

Overall, the flash flood threat appears to be low, but a couple of
areas could see a quick 2 to 3+ inches of rain which may lead to
flash flooding depending on exactly where this occurs in relation
to locally sensitive areas across western TX.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8YI7bZIpIko-K8nRck8Z-AdO4-FwXq3Op_CU5Z_QIwsB3bSpvU5341fUzJNF8P8yW9tO= hMqOcokc1ba4TKcR_gPKLE8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35110122 34810029 34250013 33150050 31390146=20
30330227 29450309 28970358 29080420 29460483=20
30100501 30940575 31650608 32190566 32680446=20
33720340 34300252 35010211=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141834
FFGMPD
SDZ000-NDZ000-150000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1085
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Areas affected...central North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141830Z - 150000Z

Summary...Localized rainfall totals as high as 3-4" in 2-3 hours
may result in isolated instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...A mid-upper level shortwave trough lifting north
across the Central High Plains is driving the organization of deep
convection over north-central SD early this afternoon, as a
strengthening area of low-level (concentrated at 850 mb) moisture
flux transport becomes better aligned with the right-entrance
region of a ~100 kt jet streak centered near eastern MT into
Saskatchewan, Canada. While lapse rates are unimpressive overall
(solidly moist adiabatic throughout the low to mid-level profile),
MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg has been sufficient with aforementioned
strong dynamics to result in efficient 1-3"/hr rainfall
accumulations (with PWs of 1.5-1.7" near record territory for
mid-Sep, closer to the max moving average of the climatological
peak during late July and early August).

Localized south-to-north training of convection within the=20
meridional flow regime will likely result in additional 2-3"
totals, and may locally exceed 3" (per 12z HREF neighborhood
probabilities of 20-40%). While USGS streamflows in the region are
generally indicated to be above normal, tributaries of the
Missouri River are well below flood stage. Therefore any isolated
instances of flash flooding should be confined to particularly
vulnerable low-lying areas (with urbanized surfaces quite limited
in this rural area) that receive as much as 3-4" of rainfall in
2-3 hours.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-fCmDq4-APeJaEJlYRovtuTiLtGng8VvbtMLV4QfcLUK6G5NtFU72e6wosk17mLahEtj= Lr2OIBWSgsKcEj5MdzhkIhg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49180048 49049938 47719957 46589979 45749999=20
45440074 45750148 46950168 47760162 48730160=20
49120120=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 142126
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-150200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1086
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
526 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Areas affected...South-Central Nebraska...Adj Northwest Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142130Z - 150200Z

SUMMARY...Very slow moving thunderstorms capable of 1.5"/hr with
possible short-term mergers up to 2"/hr locally may result in
scattered 2-4" totals over the next few hours before eventual
increased propagation eastward.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows core of mid-level closed low
over the southern Sand Hills of Nebraska, with a smaller scale
vorticity center rotating around the northern into the northwest
quadrant of the larger parent. This has sharpened the southern
base of the larger scale center, allowing for early afternoon
clearing to enhanced insolation and increase broader pool of
unstable air with narrow pool of 2000 J/kg CAPE be maintained
across south-central Nebraska, along and east of the slow moving
frontal zone. With bulk of stronger mid-level forcing and solid
eastern side meridional jet, the unstable air south of the Sand
Hills still has sufficient moisture angled back toward a weak
surface inflection near McCook. Tds in the mid 60s and total PWat
values of 1.25 to 1.4" fluxed on slightly backed surface to
boundary layer flow has maintained solid deep layer moisture flux
convergence for isolated cells (southwest Custer county over the
last few hours) to start increasing in coverage, expanding into
far northwest KS. Hourly rates of 1.5"/hr are likely and with
very slow cell motions nearly directly under the steering flow
axis, shows only very slow eastward propagation over the next few
hours. As such, localized totals of 2-4" are becoming more
probable, given slow motions and remaining instability/moisture
pool downstream.=20=20

Limiting factor toward flash flooding is, typical of the region,
soil conditions being near the Sand Hills. However, lower FFG
south of the main Hills region through the Platte River Valley and
across into N KS are 1.5"/hr and generally 2-2.5"/3hrs; given area
is in prolonged drought with 0-40 cm soil saturation ratios below
10%, the top portions may have become a bit more hydrophobic, and
given intensity of rates, may result in increased runoff and
possible incidents of localized flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8_b5T0SXqTS89SLz4voo1SPwFglBjbJ3oDM0DNN0FtBhAwfsXU4v67guPn3hTcr_BhZo= b8LHzZCmWIdTm_6KCMzV5IY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41859888 41659855 40579862 39569922 39420057=20
40000109 40710098 41180063 41390032 41779966=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150348
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-150715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1087
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1147 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Areas affected...TX Panhandle into western OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150345Z - 150715Z

Summary...Brief training of thunderstorms may result in 2+ inches
of rain in an hour or less along with isolated flash flooding
across the TX Panhandle and possibly into western OK. The threat
Is expected to persist for at least a couple more hours.

Discussion...KAMA reflectivity at 0330Z showed a small area of
thunderstorms over the northeastern TX Panhandle into far western
OK, drifting south but also backbuilding toward the west. The
storms formed along a weak, retreating dryline which has moved
westward to near Cannon AFD as of 03Z. A southward sinking
boundary was evident via surface observations and reflectivity
data, a combination of outflow and a weak cold front which has
pressed south of Dalhart and Dumas since 00Z. Meanwhile, southerly
850 mb winds were increasing across West TX with RAP forecasts
indicating speeds near 30 kt by 06Z.

Given MLCAPE of roughly 1000-2000 J/kg over the Panhandle (00Z AMA
sounding and SPC mesoanalysis) and relatively weak CIN which
should continue to be overcome by overrunning of the southward
sinking psuedo-cold front, thunderstorms are expected to persist
for another couple of hours. Periods of backbuilding are likely to
continue and with mean westerly flow aloft, some training could
result. Earlier rainfall measurements over the northeastern TX
Panhandle showed ~0.75 inches of rain in 15 minutes, which could
result in 2+ inches of rain in an hour or less should training
persist long enough over a given location. The flash flood threat
should remain isolated in nature but also persist for an
additional 2-4 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-7EI611l50GQRgfoignEVvvvS4WIk2IVD_VSEJ9nlW9qskEN8A8UNRQ8OWXeA1EjMwfm= rhNd9VpoGNlnXbdzr8gBrD4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36129985 35669969 35229988 35030039 34900123=20
35140190 35670199 36080140 36100054=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150550
FFGMPD
SDZ000-NDZ000-151145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1088
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
149 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Areas affected...central to western ND

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150547Z - 151145Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will pose an
isolated risk for flash flooding for central and western ND
through 12Z. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected along
with 2 to 4 inch storm totals.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite showed a NW to SE elongated mid-level
low centered over western SD at 0530Z, slowly lifting north, with
embedded smaller scale vorticity maxima. These vorticity maxima
were contributing to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
from the ND/SD border into western ND. The environment across the
western half of ND was characterized by a small pocket of 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE and 1.3 to 1.6 inch PWATs (90-95th percentile) via 05Z
SPC mesoanalysis data. MUCAPE values were slightly higher with low
LPL levels below 750m AGL.

As the closed low moves north over the next 3-6 hours, a
combination of slightly colder 500 mb temperatures (locally
increased instability) and associated vorticity maxima are
expected to lead to development of additional showers and
thunderstorms over west-central ND. Deep layer mean winds beneath
the closed low were fairly weak at 10 kt or less, which will
support slow moving cores of heavy rain, with the expected
coverage of slow moving cores peaking over the next 2-5 hours. The
anomalously moist environment and slow moving cores of heavy rain
should lead to hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches along with spotty
2-4 inch storm totals. These localized heavy rainfall areas may
lead to isolated flash flooding through 12Z considering 3-hr FFG
values below 2 inches in many locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8JvCWaV2gr9UM0b8XuReM0k0df62_TYCVZ6XJmm9C7plvOYDRWV4LMy0VRNbnWpU7ICj= 7xUBtSSW-bRr-8LwXuO11Y0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49110183 49000131 48470118 47820084 46980035=20
46380031 46000082 45870163 46100259 46740342=20
47770369 48830356 49050295 49070234=20

=3D =3D =3D
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