710
WTNT32 KNHC 081158
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
700 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING
RAINFALL OVERSPREADING SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS FROM BERYL...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 95.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Mesquite Bay northward to Port Bolivar

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast north of Port Bolivar to Sabine Pass

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 95.8 West. Beryl is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast
with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move over eastern
Texas today, then move through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the
Ohio Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday.

National Weather Service Doppler radar data indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady
weakening is expected as the center moves inland, and Beryl is
expected to weaken to a tropical storm later today and to a
tropical depression on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km). San Bernard National Wildlife Refuge recently
reported a wind gust of 87 mph (140 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
Bay City Regional Airport reported 980 mb (28.94 inches) inside the
eye of Beryl about an hour ago.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading across portions of the
warning area at this time and will continue for the next several
hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring elsewhere in the
warning area.

Tropical storm conditions are spreading across the tropical storm
warning area along the upper Texas coast and will continue during
the next several hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor, TX to San Luis Pass, TX...4-7 ft
Matagorda Bay...4-7 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to High Island, TX...4-6 ft
Galveston Bay...4-6 ft
Mesquite Bay, TX to Port O'Connor, TX...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts
of 15 inches is expected across portions of the middle and upper
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas today into tonight. Considerable
flash and urban flooding as well as minor to isolated major river
flooding is expected.

Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts
possible, is expected across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma,
Arkansas and southern Missouri tonight into Tuesday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur tonight along the upper Texas
Coast, and several tornadoes are possible today across parts of east
Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas.

SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern
Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day
or two. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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