ABNT20 KNHC 021129
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Straits of Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of poorly
organized showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola,
the southeastern Bahamas, and Jamaica, as well as the adjacent
waters of the southwestern Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. The wave
is expected to move near or over Cuba throughout the day and then
emerge over the Straits of Florida tonight or Saturday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of
Mexico near the Florida Peninsula. Tropical storm watches or
warnings could be required for portions of Florida later today.

Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash
flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend,
and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ABNT20 KNHC 041734
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

East of the Windward Islands:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the east of the
Windward Islands continues to produce an area of showers and
thunderstorms, and earlier satellite wind data showed winds of 30-35
mph just north of the wave axis. Environmental conditions appear
generally favorable for some slow development of this system over
the next week as the system moves quickly westward at around 20 mph,
crossing the Windward Islands early this week and moving into the
central and western Caribbean by the mid to latter part of this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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ABNT20 KNHC 051128
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Debby, centered inland near the Florida Big Bend.

East of the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
near the Windward Islands have decreased and become less organized
since yesterday. Any development of this system should be slow to
occur during the next couple of days while the system moves westward
over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development later this week as
the system moves across the western Caribbean Sea or the southern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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ABNT20 KNHC 091149
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Debby, located inland over the Mid-Atlantic region.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles to the west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic. Any
development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next
couple of days while it moves westward across the central tropical
Atlantic. Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development while the wave moves west-northwestward,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the
system approaches the Lesser Antilles. The system is then forecast
to continue moving generally west-northwestward and could approach
the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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ABNT20 KNHC 101135
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with a tropical wave located roughly midway between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next couple of days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic. Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the early to middle part of next week while the system
approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. The
system is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward
and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle to
latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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ABNT20 KNHC 111121
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next couple of days while the system approaches and then moves near
or over the Leeward Islands. Interests on these islands should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, and watches
or warnings could be required for portions of the area as soon as
later today. The system could approach portions of the Greater
Antilles by the middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 121124
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five, located a few hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five are issued
under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five are issued
under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart
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