Solar energy can be cheap and reliable across China by 2060

Date:
October 18, 2021
Source:
Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences
Summary:
How much will solar power really cost in China in the coming
decades, including the challenges its inherent variability poses
to the grid? Researchers have found that solar energy could
provide 43.2% of China's electricity demands in 2060 at less than
two-and-a-half U.S. cents per kilowatt-hour.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
At the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland, much attention will be focused on China. As the world's largest CO2 emitter,
China's efforts to decarbonize its energy system will be critical to
the goal of limiting the rise in global average surface temperature to
1.5 degrees Celsius.


========================================================================== China has already made major commitments to transitioning its energy
systems towards renewables, especially power generation from solar, wind
and hydro sources. However, there are many unknowns about the future
of solar energy in China, including its cost, technical feasibility and
grid compatibility in the coming decades. Recent projections of the cost
of future solar energy potential in China have relied on outdated and overestimated costs of solar panels and their installation, and storage technologies like lithium-ion batteries.

How much will solar power really cost in China in the coming decades,
including the challenges its inherent variability poses to the grid? Researchers from Harvard, Tsinghua University in Beijing, Nankai
University in Tianjin and Renmin University of China in Beijing have found
that solar energy could provide 43.2% of China's electricity demands
in 2060 at less than two- and-a-half U.S. cents per kilowatt-hour. For comparison, coal power tariffs in China ranged 3.6 to 6.5 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2019.

The research is published as the cover article of the Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

"The findings highlight a crucial energy transition point, not only for
China but for other countries, at which combined solar power and storage systems become a cheaper alternative to coal-fired electricity and a more
grid- compatible option," said Michael B. McElroy, the Gilbert Butler
Professor of Environmental Studies at the Harvard John A. Paulson School
of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS) and co-corresponding author
of the study.



========================================================================== "Today, subsidy-free solar power has become cheaper than coal power in
most parts of China, and this cost-competitive advantage will soon expand
to the whole country due to technology advances and cost declines," said
Xi Lu, Associate Professor, School of Environment, Tsinghua University
and co- corresponding author of the paper. "Our results demonstrate that
the economic competitiveness of solar power combined with investments
in storage systems could provide extra benefits for grid dispatch, which
will be especially important for operation of future electric systems in China." Lu received his Ph.D. from the Harvard Graduate School of Arts
and Sciences and began laying groundwork for the study as a postdoctoral
fellow and research associate at the SEAS-based Harvard-China Project
on Energy, Economy and Environment.

The research team developed an integrated model to assess solar energy potential in China and its cost from 2020-2060. The model first takes
into account factors such as land uses throughout China, possible tilt
and spacing of solar panels, and meteorological conditions like solar
radiation and temperature to estimate the physical potential of solar
power across both space and time.

The team then integrated the investment costs and speed of
technological changes to capture the evolving cost-competitiveness of
solar power relative to coal power now and in the future. Building on
this foundation, the study developed an hourly optimization model to
evaluate the additional costs of power storage systems needed to smooth
the variations of solar output so that it can be integrated into the
grid to match electricity demand.

The researchers first found that the physical potential of solar PV,
which includes how many solar panels can be installed and how much
solar energy they can generate, in China reached 99.2 petawatt-hours in
2020. This is more than twice the country's total consumption of energy
in all forms, including not only electricity but also fuels consumed
directly by vehicles, factories, building heating and more. The findings
show solar PV is an enormous resource for China's decarbonization.



==========================================================================
They then demonstrated its cost-competitiveness, with 78.6% of the
potential in 2020 equal to or lower than current prices of local
coal-fired power, a share set to grow further. This cost advantage means
China can invest in storage capacity, such as batteries, and still cost-effectively supply 7.2 petawatt- hours or 43.2% of country-wide electricity demand by 2060.

"Most now realize that climate change requires transitioning away
from fossil energy use," said Chris P. Nielsen, executive director of
the Harvard-China Project and a co-author of the paper. "Not as many
realize that decarbonizing the power system is the linchpin, especially
as more sectors become electrified, and that accommodation by the grid
of renewable variability is the toughest part of the puzzle. It's a
huge breakthrough, and not just for China, if storage can make solar
power grid-compatible at a competitive cost." "Our research shows that
if costs continue to decline, especially for storage, there could be opportunities to power vehicles, heat or cool buildings, or to produce industrial chemicals, all using solar energy. This would extend the
climate and environmental benefits of solar energy far beyond the power
sector as traditionally conceived," said Shi Chen, co-first author of
the paper who helped lead the study as a Tsinghua Ph.D. student and a
visiting fellow at the Harvard-China Project.

This research was co-authored by Chongyu Zhang, Jiacong Li, He Xu, Ye Wu, Shuxiao Wang, Feng Song, Chu Wei, Kebin He and Jiming Hao.

This work was supported in part by grants from the Office of the
President of Harvard University and the Harvard Global Institute to the Harvard-China Project on Energy, Economy and Environment.

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by Harvard_John_A._Paulson_School_of_Engineering_and_Applied
Sciences. Original written by Leah Burrows. Note: Content may be edited
for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Xi Lu, Shi Chen, Chris P. Nielsen, Chongyu Zhang, Jiacong Li,
He Xu, Ye
Wu, Shuxiao Wang, Feng Song, Chu Wei, Kebin He, Michael B. McElroy,
Jiming Hao. Combined solar power and storage as cost-competitive and
grid-compatible supply for China's future carbon-neutral electricity
system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2021;
118 (42): e2103471118 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2103471118 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/10/211018163221.htm

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