• Storm Conditions LA Coast

    From Dumas Walker@1337:3/103 to All on Wed Sep 11 12:56:00 2024
    439
    WTNT31 KNHC 111744
    TCPAT1

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
    100 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

    ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NOW REACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST...

    ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
    TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...

    SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...28.6N 92.1W
    ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
    ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the
    southwestern coast of Louisiana west of Cameron.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
    * Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
    * Vermilion Bay
    * Lake Maurepas
    * Lake Pontchartrain

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to Grand Isle

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Louisiana coast from Cameron to the Vermilion/Cameron Line
    * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
    * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans

    A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
    inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
    beginning shortly for the indicated locations.

    For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
    Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
    located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
    protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
    other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
    instructions from local officials.

    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area in the next few hours.
    Preparations to protect life and property should be completed.

    A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
    within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
    to 24 hours.

    For storm information specific to your area, including possible
    inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
    local National Weather Service forecast office.

    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was
    located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 92.1 West. Francine is
    moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general
    motion should continue through this afternoon, and Francine is
    anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area
    later this afternoon or this evening. After landfall, the center is
    expected to cross southeastern Louisiana tonight, then move
    northward across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall.
    Francine is expected to rapidly weaken after landfall, and the
    system is forecast to become post-tropical on Thursday.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
    the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
    miles (185 km). An oil platform east of the center recently
    reported sustained winds of 83 mph (134 km/h) and a peak gust of
    102 mph (164 km/h) at an elevation of 102 ft (31 m).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).
    The oil platform with the winds reported above also reported a
    pressure of 983.3 mb (29.04 inches).

    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical
    Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
    WTNT41 KNHC.

    WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
    warning area in the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions
    ongoing. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
    area later this afternoon and tonight.

    Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
    the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama this afternoon and tonight.

    RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
    8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern
    Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida
    Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to
    considerable flash, urban and river flooding.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
    Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
    Rainfall Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
    graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

    For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
    this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the
    WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html .

    STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
    tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
    rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
    reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
    areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

    Intracoastal City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
    Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
    Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
    Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft
    Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
    Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
    Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
    Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft

    The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
    the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
    accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
    depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
    can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
    to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
    there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
    specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
    National Weather Service forecast office.

    For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
    please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
    available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

    TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight
    across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
    Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

    SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the
    northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing
    life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
    products from your local weather office.

    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven
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