888
WTNT34 KNHC 161441
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

...SARA DRIFTING NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE
ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 86.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 86.5 West. Sara is
moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this motion
is expected today, with a faster motion toward the west-northwest
and northwest expected on Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the Bay Islands
of Honduras today before approaching Belize tonight, and then moving
onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and Sunday
before landfall in Belize, with weakening expected after landfall.
Sara is expected to dissipate Sunday night or Monday as it crosses
the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

$$
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